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Articles by Neil Winward
AI’s Strategic Edge: Why Investors Can’t Afford to Wait
Investing has always been about seeing what others miss. The best investors anticipate trends, measure risk precisely, and allocate capital where it compounds fastest. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) offers a new advantage. Once dismissed as hype, AI is nowa practical driver of value creationacross industries. For investors — from family offices to institutional players — AI isn’t just another technology trend; it’s a lens through which to evaluate companies, assess risk, and identify alpha.
Mindset Alpha: The Modern Edge Is Between Your Ears
Algorithms hunt liquidity. Quants devour patterns. But the most durable edge in markets still comes from the human side: mindset, discipline, and an ability to spot your own blind spots before they cost you money. In a market where everyone has access to the same data and tools, your edge isn’t just about speed or complexity; it’s about control over your own thinking. 1.
Timing: The Smartest Sounding Nonsense in Macro Investing
In the high-stakes world of macro investing, where fortunes are made and lost on the tides of global markets, the allure of "timing" reigns supreme. Promising the ability to predict economic shifts and capitalize on fleeting opportunities, market timing is often sold as a sophisticated strategy for outsmarting the competition. Yet, beneath its polished veneer lies a troubling truth: timing is frequently little more than the smartest-sounding nonsense in investing.
U.S. Stock Markets Slide Amid Weak Economic Data and Tariff Fears
U.S. stock markets experienced a turbulent session, with the S&P 500 declining 0.49% to close at 6,299.19 and the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.65% to end at 20,916.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also dipped, shedding 61.90 points, or 0.14%, to settle at 44,111.74. The sell-off, reported by CNBC, was driven by a combination of disappointing economic indicators and heightened concerns over President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, reigniting fears of economic slowdown and inflation.
U.S. Stock Markets Soar to Record Highs Amid Trade Optimism and Tech Earnings, but Volatility Looms
The U.S. stock markets are riding a wave of euphoria, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high of 6,358.91 and the Nasdaq Composite soaring past 21,000, propelled by optimism over U.S.-China trade de-escalation and robust tech earnings. Beneath the surface, concerns over tariffs and a 14.3% global earnings downgrade over the past month signal potential volatility, reminding investors that the road ahead may not be as smooth as the recent rally suggests.
US-Japan Trade Deal: $550 Billion Investment and 15% Tariffs Reshape Economic Ties
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping trade agreement with Japan, heralded as one of the largest trade deals in history. The agreement, which includes a $550 billion investment from Japan into the U.S. and a reduction of tariffs on Japanese goods to 15%, has sparked a surge in Japanese auto stocks while raising concerns about its broader implications for global markets and U.S. automakers.
Trump Media’s $400 Million Stock Buyback
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social, has announced a $400 million stock buyback program. It's a surprising decision for a company that reported just $8.8 million in revenue for the first quarter of 2025. The move, which comes as TMTG’s stock has plummeted 46% this year, signals a strategic effort to boost shareholder confidence while the company pivots toward financial services with its Truth.Fi platform.
FTSE 100 Reaches Record High as Trump’s Tariffs Spark Global Market Shift
The FTSE 100, Britain’s flagship stock market index, soared to a record closing high of 8,884 points on Thursday, June 12, 2025, defying a contraction in the UK economy and capitalizing on waning confidence in U.S. markets triggered by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. The milestone marks a significant moment for the UK stock market, which has outperformed its American counterparts this year, gaining nearly 9% compared to the S&P 500’s modest 2.7% rise.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rebounds in June 2025, Signaling Hope Amid Trade War Uncertainty
U.S. consumer sentiment surged in June 2025, marking its first improvement since December 2024, as Americans expressed cautious optimism that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war rhetoric may be softening.
US Mortgage Rates Surge to February High, Pressuring U.S. Housing Market
U.S. mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level since February 2025, with the 30-year fixed rate hitting 6.7%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The uptick, fueled by persistent inflationary pressures and concerns over escalating U.S. trade tariffs, is dampening housing market activity, raising affordability concerns for prospective homebuyers, and casting uncertainty over the real estate sector’s recovery.
U.S. Economy Contracts in Q1 2025: Tariffs, Slow Spending, and Rising Inflation Signal Challenges Ahead
The U.S. economy has entered turbulent waters, contracting at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This marks the first economic contraction in three years, ending a period of resilience despite global uncertainties.
American Airlines Scraps 2025 Forecast Amid Trump Tariff Pressures and Economic Uncertainty
American Airlines has withdrawn its 2025 financial forecast, citing tariff pressures and uncertainties surrounding government spending. The decision, announced on April 24, 2025, aligns with similar actions by competitors like Southwest Airlines and reflects growing fears of reduced consumer travel demand as Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements ripple through the U.S. economy.
Trump’s Escalating Tariffs on China Ignite Global Trade War, Shake Markets, and Prompt Urgent Talks in Washington
The intensifying trade war between the United States and China, fueled by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, has sent shockwaves through global markets and prompted urgent negotiations among world leaders. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have skyrocketed to a staggering 145%, combining a 125% reciprocal tariff, a 20% fentanyl-related tariff, and existing Section 301 tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 100%.
Breaking Down U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance's 'No More Bailouts' Message for Europe
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance has solidified his reputation as a vocal critic of Europe, particularly through his "no more bailouts" stance, which encapsulates his broader skepticism of the transatlantic alliance. This message, rooted in his public speeches and private communications, reflects a deep-seated frustration with what he perceives as Europe’s overreliance on American military and economic support.
Market Mayhem Unraveled: Trump Tariffs, Precious Metals, and Where to Duck for Cover
It’s been a rollercoaster week for the stock market as of today, with a sharp sell-off kicking off Monday and a milder dip on Tuesday—pure catnip for market commentators. The major indices—the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ—are poised to close the week down roughly 4%, a stumble that’s sparked chatter about rug-pulls, equity outflows, and indices taking a beating.
How Trump Is Going To Make An Energy Miracle
How Trump Is Going To Make An Energy Miracle Donald Trump has outlined several strategies aimed at what he describes as making an "energy miracle" in the United States. His main strategy will primarily focus on increasing the production of fossil fuels, reducing regulations, and promoting energy independence.
The US Election is Over, What's Next for Financial Markets?
Democracy is messy and doesn’t always give you what you want. Your team doesn’t always win, and that’s painful. I watched CNN’s John King click through the impressive tech setup to show the results county by county. It gives you a great picture of America. One of my relatives - he doesn’t live in America - was angry. He said we live in a sh#thole country. I don't see it this way. America is a great country.
How To Make Sure Your Children Succeed In Life
Have you ever lost sleep over your kids? Do they have friends? Are they happy? Are they doing well in school, work, or relationships? Did you do the right thing in [fill in the blank from a long list of parental choices]? Did you do enough, too much? Did you over-parent or allow too much free-range, unsupervised activity? Did you keep them safe or rob them of agency? I could go on. You know what I mean, right? It’s endless. You thought it would stop when they go to college, graduate college, or get a job.
Trump vs. Harris: Comparing Energy Policies in the Race to Secure America's Energy Future
As the upcoming presidential election draws near, energy policy has become a significant focus for voters. The debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (representing Biden’s energy legacy) presents stark contrasts in their approach to energy production, climate change, and economic growth.
Renewable Energy, Politics, and Tax Benefits
Renewable Energy, Politics, and Tax Benefits The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been a game-changer for the renewable energy industry, offering substantial tax benefits that have sparked unprecedented investment in clean technologies. However, as with any major legislation, its effects aren’t uniformly distributed, and where these benefits are happening is surprising.
Don’t Worry About This Bull Market - It’s Different
From energy breakthroughs to interest rate shifts, the forces shaping the current financial climate are both multifaceted and surprising. While certain indicators suggest a recession might be looming, other factors, like government spending and a surge in consumer activity—especially from the Baby Boomer generation—are propping up the economy in unexpected ways.
Repaying All That Government Debt Will Need Some Magic
Repaying All That Government Debt Will Need Some Magic One of the most pressing concerns for the U.S. economy today is the mounting national debt, which has now reached nearly $36 trillion. Despite strong economic growth and high employment levels, this increasing debt load raises alarms, especially as it surpasses 100% of the nation’s GDP. To put that into perspective, it’s like owning more than you earn annually—something that would be concerning for a household, and even more so for a country.
After 63 Years I Figured Out How To Do It All
The hero's journey, also known as the monomyth, is a narrative template involving a hero who goes on an adventure, faces challenges, achieves victory in a crisis, and returns home transformed. Writing is an adventure, and it has challenges. Posting 1,500 words or more each week represents a victory, and it is transformative to do that. In under ten minutes, the mission is to explain some aspect of macroeconomics, energy, or geopolitics that piques my interest and will, I hope, pique yours, too.
The Alchemical Art of Bipartisanship
Picture the scene: a music hall in lower Westchester, 25 miles north of Manhattan. Joe Jackson and his band are starting their 2018 tour. Joe Jackson’s first hit, “Is She Really Going Out With Him”, was in 1979. Quite the career. As he observed, there are now more parents of teenagers in his audiences than there are teenagers. The performance was great: Jackson on piano and vocals, accompanied by a bass player, a drummer and a guitarist. He played new material and old.
Supreme Trauma
As of July 9, when President Trump announces his next pick for Supreme Court Justice, the country will enter a news-induced state of constitutional angst. It has already started. Just when the reasonable citizen may have been hoping to take the summer off from Trump Derangement Syndrome, Justice Kennedy decided it was time to resign.
Taxes, Taxes, Taxes
Since tax reform passed at the end of 2017, the topic has been front and centre. The taxes at stake in the US amount to some $3.3trn at the Federal level and some $2.5trn at the state and local levels. Property taxes in 2017 amounted to $33bn. Because of tax reform, not all the taxes imposed at the state and local level, including property taxes, are deductible against Federal tax.
Peter Thiel and Leaving Silicon Valley
Peter Gregory, the character from the series, Silicon Valley, who most resembled Peter Thiel, was written out during season 1 because he died of a heart attack. Peter Thiel’s departure from Silicon Valley was – fortunately – for different reasons. Having taken a great deal of grief from the tech community for his support of Donald Trump, he decided that the climate of the place had become too one dimensional, too much of a bubble. Perhaps LA offers a wider choice of bubbles.
The Trump Approach on Foreign Policy: A Confusing Time
The words “another country” evoke themes on both sides of the Atlantic. It occupies the first line of the second (or third, depending on the version) stanza of the hymn, “I Vow to Thee My Country”, that was written in the aftermath of WWI. It is the title of a movie loosely based on the life of the British (Cambridge) spy Guy Burgess that explores themes of patriotism, class and sexuality.
Erdogan Rules
There is a story – most likely apocryphal – told by Henry of Huntingdon in the 12th century of King Canute. Canute, of Danish origin and king of England (and Denmark and some of the Swedes) for about twenty years beginning in 1015, is reputed to have set his throne at the sea’s edge and commanded the tide to turn back.
Texas Should Have Ten Senators
This is not original. It was first surfaced in a Texas Law Review article, written by Vasan Kesavan and Michael Stokes Paulsen in May 2004, entitled “Let’s Mess With Texas”. Most recently, it was the subject of Malcolm Gladwell’s first episode in the third series of his Revisionist History podcast. It deserves a prolonged shout out because the implications are large – Texas large. Texas is one of eight states that has provided multiple presidents.
Class of 2018: The Future Facing Graduates
Attending two college graduations in the space of four days is a lot to digest. The price of a four-year diploma at top quality private schools in the United States these days is around $250,000, so expectations are high. Each graduation brings speeches that aim to deliver messages. At the heart of all these are two themes: gratitude and obligation (privilege comes with responsibility).
Elon Musk: The Market Will Decide
There are arguments for both. Musk has inspired envy for the undoubted achievements of manufacturing cool cars, domestic solar systems (including beautiful roof tiles), a reusable rocket system together with a host of ideas and products that are ambitious at times beyond credibility. He has also burnt out employees, (some) investors (with over $11bn of short positions, Tesla is the most shorted stock) and analysts who dare to ask what he considers to be dumb questions during earnings calls.
A New Trend in Private Equity?
KKR recently announced it would be changing its partnership form to that of a corporation. Why would it do that? Tax reform at the end of 2017 reduced the corporate tax rate substantially from 35% to 21% making the economics of paying two levels of tax – the first at the level of the corporation and the second at the shareholder level – more attractive than the existing structure.
Senator, We Sell Ads…
It is misguided to think that government can solve all our pressing problems – the things that concern us deeply at any moment in history – by regulation. It is especially misguided at this point in US history when public trust in Congress and in the politicians whose efforts would be joined in crafting such regulation is at an all-time low.
The Syrian Knot
This quote from Bashar Assad in 2011 is the perfect introduction to the topic. It is a callous lie and illustrates the monstrous truth catalogued painfully by R.J Rummel in his book Death by Government: 128,168,000 victims of 20th-century governments: The Soviet Gulag State (61,911,000); Communist China (35,236,000); Nazi Germany (20,946,000) and Nationalist China (10,214,000). Dying at the hands of one’s government is remarkably commonplace.
Tax Day: When a $1bn Check Is Not Accepted
It is Tax Day in the United States. April 17, 2018, is the day the approximately 150m individual taxpayers in the US are obliged to file their tax return or request an extension. Extending the filing date does not excuse any amount owed: an estimated payment must be made. If more is owed than was estimated, interest will be owed on the balance.
Tax Day and Hedge Funds
Tomorrow is Tax Day in the United States. April 17, 2018 is the day the approximately 150mn individual taxpayers in the US are obliged to file their tax return or request and extension. Extending the filing date does not excuse any amount owed: an estimated payment must be made. If more is owed than was estimated, interest will be owed on the balance.
JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon Damns Outrage Culture and Toxic Media
The media is consumed with stories of porn stars, trade wars, fake news, Russian collusion, and immigration. These are distractions and play to the base(r) instincts. Each has its reasons. None really moves the chains on the larger project of the US economy. This week marked the publication of Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to JP Morgan shareholders. It runs to forty-seven pages and is worth a read, both for an update on JP Morgan’s progress and for some of Dimon’s commentary on public policy.
The Art of the Deal: Tariffs Are Taxes
President Trump is a befuddling cocktail of inconsistency, mendacity, affirmation-seeking public posturing and poorly thought through ideas badly expressed. And yet, he keeps notching up wins in the most surprising areas. The President’s rhetoric on North Korea has been described by many as monstrously irresponsible. He matched Kim Jong in bellicose utterings and apocalyptic threats – and now talks are scheduled between North Korea and its adversaries in South Korea and the United States.
Should US States Align on Cryptocurrency Regulation?
The US is at once monolithic and factious. It has a federal administration as well as each state having their own separate government. Constitutionally, each of the fifty states and the US as a whole is a sovereign jurisdiction. Each state is structured with an executive, legislative and judicial branch and they have the power to make laws covering anything not preempted by the federal constitution, federal law or international treaties.
The Taxation of Cryptocurrency Hard Forks
As set out in an earlier TMM article, the IRS decided in 2014 to issue guidance treating cryptocurrencies as property as opposed to currencies for tax purposes. The choice was not without some criticism but broadly was considered helpful. There were some questions – among them whether or not the tax treatment afforded by IRC Section 1031 on like-kind exchanges was applicable to cryptocurrencies.
The Evangelical Movement: Politics, Religion and Sex
Traditionally it has been wise to avoid discussion of these if pleasant conversation is the goal. Unhappily, all three of these have now been (t)rolled into one offensive soup for daily consumption across all social media. Add guns, drugs, race and immigration and the menu of deplorables is complete. Each one of these dishes has been weaponised by partisan, tribal loyalty and woven into a tapestry of conflict that fouls the atmosphere and adds stress to all who engage.
The Real Slim Shady: Investing in Digital Music
According to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, in 2016 the global music industry grew by 5.9%. Digital revenue accounted for 50% of the global music revenue and digital revenue grew by 17.7%. Streaming revenue grew by 60.4%, which made up for the 7.6% decline in physical revenue and the 20.5% decline in download revenue.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Fixing the New Tax Law
There are many quirks to the new tax legislation. Here are some that stand out. Along with the restructuring of the international tax landscape and the limitation of interest deductibility is the change in the treatment of alimony. Prior to tax reform, the payor was permitted to deduct alimony payments. Tax reform changed that: payments will neither be deductible by the Pryor nor inclusive in the income of the recipient. The effective date, however, is January 1, 2019.
Reflecting on the US: Stories of Power
The recent Nor’Easter left many areas of the Eastern Seaboard without power for hours/days. It brings into sharp focus what is accomplished while plugged into the grid and what can be achieved without it. There are layers of withdrawal. Power to heat the home in winter is something it is tough to do without. Having gas fired hot water leaves that as a major consolation. Cooking is a challenge, but there are restaurants. If the cold is too bad, there are, for many, nearby friends to stay with.
Shadow Banking: The Hidden Cause of the 2008 Crisis?
Shadow banking was accused by Paul Krugman in 2008 of being the unnamed co-conspirator in bringing about the financial crisis. What is shadow banking; why was it to blame and where does it sit in the rogues’ gallery of financial malfeasance? It starts with banks.
Guns and Drugs: Issues of Tribal Loyalty
Dan Hodges, a British journalist, captured the core tragedy in a Twitter post on the subject of Sandy Hook, the 2012 shooting at a Connecticut elementary school that took the lives of twenty young children: “Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over.” Is it over? What could frame this issue in a way that might help reduce the incidence of mass shootings in the United States? The issue, like most issues in the US today, is highly politicised.
The Beat Goes On: Tax Reform Growing in Popularity
Despite having initially polled rather badly, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is apparently beginning to grow in popularity as the withholding tables are changed and taxpayers begin to notice more money in their paychecks. Meanwhile, bills are being introduced in Congress (destined to go nowhere) to make the individual tax cuts permanent in parity with the corporate tax cuts.
Authors Speak: Neil Winward
We asked some of our top authors a few questions about writing for The Market Mogul, here’s what Neil Winward had to say: What motivates me to write is a wish to share knowledge and what I hope to be a fresh perspective on matters that I find – and which I hope others will find – interesting. Writing shapes thinking. My experience writing for TMM has been excellent.
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