Neil Irwin
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Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios and author of Axios Macro newsletter.
Author of "The Alchemists" and "How to Win"; Formerly: NYT, WashPost.
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Articles by Neil Irwin
Key inflation, employment data out this week
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg; Note: September 2026 number is median analyst projection; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios By the end of the week, we should know a good bit more about how the labor market and inflation performed in late summer. Driving the news: On Tuesday, the Labor Department will release the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover data, giving a fine-grained reading on the evolution of the job market.
It's a 5% world. We're just living in it Original
The cost of borrowing money is moving unrelentingly higher, with profound implications for savers, borrowers and the U.S. government's fiscal outlook. The big picture: The bond market moves over the last few weeks have pushed most risk-free interest rates north of 5%. Barring a rapid reversal, expect pain to come in interest-sensitive sectors like housing, new stress on federal government finances and greater risks of financial disruption.
Fed decisions may influence long-term bond yields
Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios In theory, the tactical, meeting-to-meeting interest rate decisions made by the Federal Reserve shouldn't much matter for borrowing costs over decades to come. The theory, however, appears to be wrong. The big picture: Research out this week shows that the post-COVID surge in long-term bond yields has been uncannily concentrated around either major Fed communications or the release of the jobs report that in turn affects near-term Fed decisions.
Mortgage interest rates top 7%
Mortgage rates surged above 7% last week for the first time in more than 2 years — a blow to would-be homebuyers as rising long-term interest rates ripple across the U.S. economy. Why it matters: The flip side of more rapid U.S. growth is higher long-term interest rates, with homebuyers particularly poised to take it on the chin.
Mortgage interest rates top 7%
Mortgage rates surged above 7% last week for the first time in more than 2 years — a blow to would-be homebuyers as rising long-term interest rates ripple across the U.S. economy. Why it matters: The flip sideofmore rapid U.S. growth is higher long-term interest rates, with homebuyers particularly poised to take it on the chin.
US economy to grow faster than its allies
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OECD: U.S. economy to grow faster than its allies
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The hidden cost of supply chain resilience
Data: Axios analysis of FactSet transcripts; Note: Counts earnings calls referencing dual sourcing, multiple suppliers or other forms of supplier diversification; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios For decades, businesses assumed that shipping lanes would stay open, trade agreements would endure, and major international relationships would remain stable. Those assumptions look less certain than they have in decades, with big economic consequences.
The AI-flation problem
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The AI-flation problem
The AI-related data center buildout may be fueling overall demand — and inflation — in ways that compel a response by the Federal Reserve, a top official said this morning. Why it matters: After last week's interest rate hike , it's now an open question how much further the Fed will push rates upward — and the more the AI buildout is viewed as a culprit, the higher rates will need to go to get aggregate demand and supply into balance.
When AI is part of the inflation problem Original
The AI-related data center buildout may be fueling overall demand — and inflation — in ways that compel a response by the Federal Reserve, a top official said this morning. Why it matters: After last week's interest rate hike, it's now an open question how much further the Fed will push rates upward — and the more the AI buildout is viewed as a culprit, the higher rates will need to go to get aggregate demand and supply into balance.
The global credit tightening is underway
Central bankers around the globe are, metaphorically, holding hands and taking the leap toward higher interest rates together. The big picture: Interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan on Friday, the Fed on Wednesday and the European Central Bank last week reflect the common global forces that are challenging the world's biggest advanced economies. Energy prices are marching upward , reflecting the disruptions from the Iran war, at a time inflation has already been elevated for years.
The global credit tightening is underway
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Why the Federal Reserve hiked rates this week
Federal Reserve chairman Warsh and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee see a buoyant economy and inflation that is taking too long to come down. That combination means it's time to unwind some or all of last year's interest rate cuts. The big picture: That's the picture of the economic landscape that Warsh painted Wednesday, offering his clearest communication yet of his read on the economy and how that read translates into interest rate policy.
Fed raises rates a quarter point in first move of Warsh era
The Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C. Photo: Mehmet Eser/Anadolu via Getty Images The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point Wednesday, the first policy adjustment of Kevin Warsh's chairmanship, and hinted that another rate hike is on the way this year, as it seeks to bring inflation down more quickly.
Fed raises rates a quarter point in first move of Warsh era
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point Wednesday, the first policy adjustment of Kevin Warsh's chairmanship, and hinted that another rate hike is on the way this year, as it seeks to bring inflation down more quickly. The big picture: The action could bolster Warsh's credibility as an inflation-fighter, but risks putting him in the crosshairs of President Trump, who has long demanded lower interest rates and pilloried Warsh's predecessor for failing to deliver them.
Fed raises rates a quarter point in first move of Warsh era
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How Warsh can avoid a repeat of July's communications mess
Seven weeks ago, Warsh took questions from the media, and it didn't go well . Markets sold off as he seemed vague and evasive about the reasoning behind the latest interest rate decision. Wednesday, he gets a do-over. Why it matters: Investors will be thirsty for a more detailed explanation of the Fed's decision than the one Warsh offered in late July — even while respecting his intention not to give explicit guidance about future policy moves.
How Warsh can avoid a repeat of July's communications mess
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How Warsh can avoid a repeat of July's communications mess
Fed chairman Kevin Warsh at a July news conference. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images Seven weeks ago, Warsh took questions from the media, and it didn't go well. Markets sold off as he seemed vague and evasive about the reasoning behind the latest interest rate decision. Wednesday, he gets a do-over.
The tab is coming due for America's borrowing binge
Americans are facing a rising tab as a multi-decade borrowing binge collides with a spike in energy prices caused by the Iran war. The big picture: Long-term interest rates are surging, as are consumer prices. It's a toxic mix of near-term inflation pressures and years of fiscal imbalance. Driving the news: The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.97% Friday, up a full percentage point since the end of February, and only a hair below its high since 2007.
The tab is coming due for America's borrowing binge
Americans are facing a rising tab as a multi-decade borrowing binge collides with a spike in energy prices caused by the Iran war. The big picture: Long-term interest rates are surging, as are consumer prices. It's a toxic mix of near-term inflation pressures and years of fiscal imbalance. Driving the news: The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.97% Friday, up a full percentage point since the end of February, and only a hair below its high since 2007.
The tab is coming due for America's borrowing binge
Costco 1 hour ago Cramer’s Costco warning could cost retirees thousands TheStreet - Damilola Esebame • 1h The membership fee looks wasteful until you price one particular healthcare purchase without it. Jim Cramer told CNBC viewers on Sept. 3, 2026, that … Education 2 hours ago Inside the Outrageous Collapse of a ‘Montessori Ponzi’ The New York Times - Claire Suddath • 2h Ten years ago, a Montessori enthusiast named Ray Girn had a vision.
The Fed's big inflation test
The Fed looks boxed into raising interest rates next week after Friday morning's hot inflation report . Less certain is what comes after that. Why it matters: August inflation was shaping up to be a crucial test ahead of next week's interest rate decision, after Fed chairman Kevin Warsh signaled that stubborn price pressures could warrant tighter policy.
The macroeconomics of $5K checks
President Trump said last night that if Republicans prevail in the midterm elections, the government will send $5,000 payments to each adult citizen. That would come with profound economic risks. The big picture: The federal deficit is already running around $2 trillion a year, bond markets are starting to demand higher rates to finance government borrowing, the economy is at full employment, and inflation has been high for nearly six years.
Fed's interest rate decision may come down to hair-splitting inflation data
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Jin Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images It looks like a jump ball as to whether the Fed will raise interest rates at a meeting concluding a week from today — and the decision may hinge on a few hundredths of a percent of a single month's inflation data. The big picture: This is the opposite of what chairman Kevin Warsh wants. He has long criticized the Fed's proclivity for fine-tuning policy based on the smallest blips in economic data.
Perplexing labor market views
Americans are as pessimistic about the overall job market as they have been since the depths of the pandemic. But they think they, personally, will be just fine. The big picture: That it the perplexing combination of views displayed in the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which matches other survey-based evidence that Americans are doing well individually but are deeply negative about the overall economic outlook.
America's jobs scare recedes
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios The labor market looks considerably healthier than it did at the start of the summer. Why it matters: Friday morning's jobs report recast the last two months as a period of modest job growth rather than of outright deterioration, capped by a gain last month that was more than triple what economists expected. The labor market is weathering the Iran conflict and an AI-driven transformation of the economy with surprisingly little damage, at least for now.
Not so fast on rate hikes, some Fed officials say
After Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole , the markets penciled in an interest rate hike for the central bank's mid-September meeting. Comments from two influential officials now throw those expectations into question. The big picture: With August jobs and inflation data due out before a policy meeting in two weeks, the decision of whether to tighten policy appears to be on a knife-edge.
Not so fast on rate hikes, some Fed officials say
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh. Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images After Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, the markets penciled in an interest rate hike for the central bank's mid-September meeting. Comments from two influential officials now throw those expectations into question.
August hiring was tepid as jobs report looms
Data: ADP; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios Private employers added jobs at a tepid rate last month, ADP said, as economists await Friday's release of the official government employment data for August. Why it matters: The ADP data adds to the evidence that a surge in the job market this spring gave way to more moderate expansion over the summer. Driving the news: The payroll processing company reported that 38,000 jobs were added in August, the lowest since January and below forecasters' expectations.
What higher interest rates are telling us
Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The bond sell-off and the resulting higher interest rates are largely a story of higher growth prospects in the United States, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued Tuesday. "If we look at the composition of the bond yields — inflation expectations are flat-to-down," he said in a fireside chat at this week's G20 meeting of global finance ministers in Asheville, North Carolina. "This is a growth story.
G20 economies share problems with different solutions
G20 finance ministers and central bankers in the customary "family photo" in Asheville, North Carolina. Photo: U.S. Treasury Department public affairs The world's biggest economies need stronger growth to outrun mounting debt, aging populations and a new wave of global shocks. That much, the world's financial leaders can agree upon. But this week's G20 meeting is exposing sharp differences over what's holding global growth back.
Two words that worry global central bankers the most
Around the world, what were once solid lines dividing the responsibilities of those in charge of fiscal policy and monetary policy are being challenged or redrawn. The big picture: If elected governments succeed in undermining their central banks' independence — pressuring them to suppress interest rates or monetize debt to bail out yawning public debt problems — it foretells a world of higher inflation and economic volatility.
Why Fed chief Kevin Warsh turned to Central Banking 101 Original
With markets wobbling and the world watching, Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh went back to basics yesterday morning: He affirmed that the Fed is determined to get inflation down and may have to raise interest rates to accomplish it, Axios' Neil Irwin writes from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Why it matters: If the Warsh Fed follows through with rate hikes, it would increase borrowing costs for Americans and potentially put him in the crosshairs of the rate-cut loving president who appointed him.
Fed's Warsh: Interest rate increases in play if inflation doesn't fall
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh said Friday that the central bank's leaders have "work to do" if they are not confident that inflation is moving to 2% "clearly and at sufficient speed," implying that interest rate hikes are ahead in the absence of improvement in price pressures.
Fed's Warsh under pressure to clarify message
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh made clear four weeks ago that he wants to use his speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to take on big, lofty ideas, as opposed to the tactical details of what the Fed may do in this year's three remaining policy meetings. Events have not cooperated.
What to know about the Federal Reserve's big Jackson Hole conference
The view from the lodge in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium starts Thursday. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images Financial markets headlines right now are dominated by talk of Jackson Hole. Why it matters: Jackson Hole is shorthand for an annual gathering of central bankers in Wyoming that inevitably makes big-time economic news. To set the scene, here are the basics you need to know about the event and what makes it worthy of so much attention.
"No legitimate basis for removal" on Trump mortgage claims
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Fed governor Lisa Cook: "No legitimate basis for removal" on Trump mortgage claims
Lawyers for Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook have submitted their case for why she cannot legally be fired, as President Trump seeks new avenues for dismissing the Biden appointee for cause. The big picture: After the Supreme Court ruled against Trump's attempt to fire Cook last year over allegations that she claimed two different properties as her primary residence in mortgage documents, the White House has sought to introduce a more formal process in pursuit of the same goal.
Treasury Department's bond intervention seems to be working
Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios There is a hot debate over the wisdom of the Treasury Department's bond market intervention. In the meantime, market moves suggest Treasury's intended purpose — of reining in longer-term borrowing costs — is working. The big picture: Long-term Treasury yields have stabilized since the government said a week ago that it would buy back longer-term securities by at least $4 billion at a time.
Hedge fund legend slams Treasury's bond buybacks
Stanley Druckenmiller walks with Jane Lauder, wife of Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh, in Sun Valley, Idaho, last month. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images Hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller has a blunt message for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, his former employee: Knock it off. Driving the news: Druckenmiller has a scathing Wall Street Journal op-ed published late Monday that assails the Treasury's decision to buy back long-term bonds last week.
Treasury bonds are becoming less special
A baseline assumption in asset allocation, regulatory policy and international finance has long been that U.S. Treasury securities are risk-free assets that offer protection against the vagaries of economic fortune. It may no longer be valid. The big picture: That's the cold reality that lurks beneath the rise in longer-term bond yields in recent weeks that triggered a Treasury Department intervention.
Escalated U.S.-Canada trade talks threaten fallout
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios America's path to lower inflation depends in part on trade wars and actual wars becoming less economically disruptive. In recent days, both have taken turns that threaten the opposite. Why it matters: A period of relative calm on those fronts is now giving way to renewed tensions, with Canada, China and Iran all posing fresh economic risks.
Treasury's bond market intervention could grow
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Photo: Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images The Treasury Department intervened in the bond market last week, looking to lower long-term rates by buying back longer-term debt and effectively swapping it for shorter-term debt. There are new hints of how that effort might escalate from here.
Escalated U.S.-Canada trade talks threaten fallout
World News 8 hours ago ‘We don’t need Canada’: Trump threatens to double auto tariffs after trade talks collapse France 24 - FRANCE 24 • 8h US tariffs on all Canadian cars and trucks, automotive parts and steel will be increased to 50% starting January 1, 2027, President Donald Trump said Monday, adding that the US does not “need” Canada after the collapse of trade talks.
Retail sales slump in July
Data: Census Bureau ; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios American consumers have powered the economy forward this year. In July, they took a breather. Why it matters: While the underlying trend in consumer demand appears solid, retail sales hit an air pocket last month, suggesting a bumpier path ahead for overall growth.
Retail sales slump in July
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Consumer sentiment dips, especially among Republicans
Data: University of Michigan ; Note: August 2026 number is preliminary; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios Public opinion about the economy appears to be souring further this month, per the preliminary release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. By the numbers: Overall sentiment fell 8% in the early days of August, after two consecutive months of improvement. The index fell to 51, from 55.2 in July.
Another cool July inflation reading
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics ; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios Inflation has been stubbornly high for half a decade. But July, at least, brought some relief. The big picture: With a lively debate underway at the Federal Reserve over whether to raise interest rates, the latest run of data — a soft jobs report Friday and benign readings on inflation this week — allows for patience. Still, employment and inflation data for August are due out before the mid-September Fed meeting.
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