Neil Irwin
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Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios and author of Axios Macro newsletter.
Author of "The Alchemists" and "How to Win"; Formerly: NYT, WashPost.
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Articles by Neil Irwin
3 headlines that explain America's debt situation Original
Household debt and loan delinquencies are stable. The leading chipmaker announced what could be the biggest corporate financing package in history. And new estimates show even more government borrowing this year than thought. The big picture: Those three news stories capture America's debt picture in 2026. The household sector is in reasonably solid shape. The corporate sector is making massive, concentrated bets that come with risks.
How Kevin Warsh is rewiring the Fed
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is attempting a high-wire act: He's trying to fundamentally rethink the central bank's approach to guiding the economy, while also using its standard policy toolkit to bring down stubbornly persistent inflation. A market blowup late last month showed the perils of trying both at the same time.
How Kevin Warsh is rewiring the Fed
5 hours ago The stakes just got higher for this week's inflation report. The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, perhaps signaling that the labor market could be trending in an unhealthy direction. The update may change the calculus for the Federal Reserve, …
Summertime job market remains muggy
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios America's labor market appeared to be gaining momentum this spring. The latest data makes that rebound look much less convincing. Why it matters: The report isn't as bad as the headline suggests, but the broader picture is still one of a labor market that is less robust than it seemed.
Trump may get a big, new tariff authority
A legal cat-and-mouse game has played out over whether the president can use various obscure, untested provisions to impose tariffs. Now, Congress appears on track to give him a big, new — and explicit — tariff authority. Why it matters: A bill on Russia sanctions, named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham , has received overwhelming bipartisan support in the Senate and would allow President Trump and future presidents to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major importers of Russian energy.
Trump may get a big, new tariff authority
A legal cat-and-mouse game has played out over whether the president can use various obscure, untested provisions to impose tariffs. Now, Congress appears on track to give him a big, new — and explicit — tariff authority. Why it matters: A bill on Russia sanctions, named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has received overwhelming bipartisan support in the Senate and would allow President Trump and future presidents to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major importers of Russian energy.
Goldman Sachs exec makes case for giving Fed chairman some space
The response to Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference last week was swift and negative, prompting a sell-off of long-term bonds. A top Goldman Sachs executive sees it as an overreaction. What they're saying: "The market has been accustomed to getting a lot of Fed commentary all the time," Goldman president John Waldron tells Axios.
Mortgage applications fall as rates spike
Data: Mortgage Bankers Association; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios The sell-off in bonds has made it more expensive to buy a house. Driving the news: The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.81% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday morning , the highest in a year. Mortgage applications fell 2.9%. It reflects a surge in global bond yields.
Job openings dipped while hiring rose in June
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The U.S. labor market remained on a solid trajectory in June, as employers cut back on the number of job postings but increased their rate of hiring. Driving the news: That's the upshot of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey issued Tuesday morning, which affirms a basic resilience in the job market also evident across a range of indicators.
The message beneath the yen intervention
The U.S. and Japanese governments have acted together to try to prop up the value of the yen on global currency markets. The way they did it contains a clue about U.S. goals — and has some worrying implications for global markets. The big picture: Headline indicators have been steady across global financial markets this summer. Yet there are some signs of strains beneath the surface, particularly in the form of rising long-term borrowing costs at a time of elevated debt worldwide.
The message beneath the yen intervention
Peter Thiel 2 hours ago Sam Altman reveals the investing advice billionaire Peter Thiel gave him that helped him amass a $3.3 billion net worth without OpenAI equity Fortune - Preston Fore • 2h With an $852 billion valuation, OpenAI is one of the world’s most valuable startups. But unlike many Silicon Valley CEOs, Sam Altman’s fortune isn’t … ASUS Now Who Owns Asus?
Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged as yen intervention talk swirls
Concluding a busy week in central bank land, the Bank of Japan elected to leave interest rates unchanged overnight Thursday. But its communications were in sharp contrast to the Fed's from Wednesday. Driving the news: The bank left its target policy rate at 1% as Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda pledged that it will not fall behind the curve on its interest rate policy, one of several comments that signal more interest rate increases might be on the way.
Why the bond market is doubting Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh
In his press conference Wednesday, Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh started by asserting that the central bank will not waver in its pursuit of 2% inflation. Then, he repeatedly declined opportunities to connect that commitment to any concrete action. The result was a steep bond market sell-off, driving longer-term interest rates higher as global investors questioned the Warsh Fed's willingness to raise the short-term interest rates it controls.
Fed leaves rates steady, with internal dissent
The Federal Reserve left its interest rate target unchanged Wednesday amid significant internal dissent from officials who preferred to raise rates. The big picture: The central bank elected not to surprise markets with an interest rate hike, contrary to rampant speculation on Wall Street in recent days. But three members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee did favor raising the cost of borrowing.
Fed leaves rates steady, with internal dissent
The Federal Reserve left its interest rate target unchanged Wednesday amid significant internal dissent from officials who preferred to raise rates. The big picture: The central bank elected not to surprise markets with an interest rate hike, contrary to rampant speculation on Wall Street in recent days. But three members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee did favor raising the cost of borrowing.
Why AI makes central banking tougher Original
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios Central bankers, as a rule, try to maintain stable prices, a strong job market and a sound financial system. The AI boom is a complexifier on all three fronts. The big picture: AI is blurring the usual indicators that central bankers rely upon to set policy, a new paper from a leading international body finds, simultaneously affecting the supply and demand sides of the economy and driving both structural and cyclical change.
Productivity is booming — but AI may not be the reason Original
AI appears to improve workers' efficiency in a number of sectors. The U.S. has experienced a surge in economy-wide productivity in the last couple of years. But the former isn't necessarily driving the latter. The big picture: Companies are achieving more output per person-hour of labor because they are making better use of existing capital, a provocative new analysis finds — not, at the moment at least, by making major use of AI.
What would a rate hike signal about the new Fed chief's MO?
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What would a rate hike signal about the new Fed chief's MO?
The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week.
The "no surprises" Fed is in doubt
The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week.
The huge scale and hazards of global wealth accumulation
The world is wealthier than ever before. But it is built on ever-more stretched valuations of paper assets, rather than real output. How that wedge resolves itself will determine the future of the world's major economies. The big picture: That's the implication of new research out this week from the consulting firm McKinsey, which lays out both the shocking numerical scale of global wealth accumulation — and the hazards created by its composition.
Investors want a bigger reward for lending money
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Investors want a bigger reward for lending money
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Treasury Department; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios The relentless run-up in Treasury yields reflects the globe's new economic reality: It takes a much richer reward to persuade investors to lend their money, especially for the longer run.
That 1969 jobless claims feeling
Data: Department of Labor; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The last timethis few Americans were filing for unemployment benefits, Creedence Clearwater Revival topped the music charts, while "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" was the star of the box office. Driving the news: Only 187,000 people filed new claims for unemployment insurance benefits last week, pointing to an astoundingly low level of firings across the economy. It was the lowest since September 1969.
A quieter Fed chief means others narrate the story
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh testified before Congress over two days last week, totaling more than five hours. Yet it was comments from several of his colleagues that gave the clearest picture of what the central bank is likely to do at next week's policy meeting. Why it matters: It is a central paradox of Warsh's communications strategy.
Don't count on AI to fix America's deficit problem Original
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios If the U.S. experiences an AI-fueled productivity boom over the coming years, it will mean stronger growth — but, at least under current tax policies, that would have limited benefits for the U.S. fiscal outlook, per a new analysis.
The surprising reason Alan Greenspan backed tax cuts in 2001
Neil Irwin It was March of 2001. The newly installed administration of President George W. Bush was seeking a broad package of tax cuts. Greenspan, at the height of his reputation as an economic wizard, more or less endorsed the idea. His rationale was not what you might expect, like potential supply-side benefits or a need for fiscal stimulus. It was, to contemporary eyes at least, much weirder. Why it matters: The past is a foreign country.
PPI data lowers market odds of interest rate increases this year
Neil Irwin Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill for the second day Wednesday, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. The combination of a few comments he made in Tuesday's hearing before the House and good June inflation data now in hand suggests a rate increase is unlikely at the Fed's meeting in two weeks, while its policy stance the remainder of the year is quite uncertain.
Top economists issue warning on AI's implications Original
A new statement signed by hundreds of prominent economists shows how some leading thinkers see the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence. The debate it has triggered sheds light on perhaps the most crucial economic question of our age. The big picture: AI — and the positive and negative disruptions it will cause — is emerging as a seismic question for the economic future. That part, everybody can agree on. Less settled is how society should grapple with that fact.
Top economists issue warning on AI's implications
Costco 3 hours ago Costco makes silent gas change that members will love TheStreet - Daniel Kline • 3h The retailer’s new approach puts pressure on 7-Eleven, Circle K, and other gas station chains. Back when my wife and I lived in Connecticut, our house … Elizabeth Warren Now Sen. Warren says Trump's CFPB overhaul has cost Americans $26.5 billion CNBC - Hugh Son • 49m Sen.
Fed's Warsh stays mum on rate plans, pledges price stability
Neil Irwin Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh will tell Congress Tuesday that the central bank is determined to restore price stability, but again offered little guidance as to whether it may need to raise interest rates to achieve it. The big picture: Warsh has sought to end the Fed's modern practice of giving clear signals about its expected policy path, and continued that practice in his first congressional testimony as chairman.
D.C. has come for the Fed's headquarters before
The Federal Reserve's grand headquartersbuilding on the National Mall has been a source of controversy over the last year — and not for the first time. An episode from the 1940s, which the Fed's official historians wrote about last week, shows how the building has long been part of fraught debates around central bank independence. Zoom in: The building now known as the Marriner S. Eccles Building — named for the Fed chairman at the time — was completed in 1937.
Why both left and right have rejected free markets
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images American political leaders on the left and right are rebelling against the market-first consensus that dominated Washington for four decades. Why it matters: The result is one of the biggest shifts in U.S. economic policy since the Reagan revolution, overturning decades of orthodoxy on trade, manufacturing, housing, health care and corporate power.
Bipartisan housing bill looks on track to become law
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios It's been a long and winding road for the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, but it looks set to become law Friday evening. Probably. Driving the news: President Trump said Friday morning on Truth Social that he won't sign the bill, the most sweeping action to encourage housing supply in decades, in protest of Congress failing to move unrelated legislation on election security. But it's what he didn't say that matters most.
Outsiders with major chops lead Fed task forces
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Fed task forces are led by outsiders with chops Original
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh has created five task forces to rethink the central bank's policymaking process. They are likely to bring outside-the-box ideas combined with intellectual chops to an often insular institution. The big picture: The task forces consist of economists and business leaders who bring serious credibility to the table but also are not part of the "Fed Borg" — that is, not among the usual lineup of people who have recently worked at the central bank.
Marc Andreessen and former Walmart CEO are among the new Fed task force leaders
Neil Irwin The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced leaders of five outside task forces that chairman Kevin Warsh has formed in his push to reform the central bank — a list that includes a number of outsiders to the often insular institution. Driving the news: The panels include a range of well-known figures from finance and economics, as well as business — including top venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon.
Marc Andreessen and former Walmart CEO are among the new Fed task force leaders
1 hour ago Hollywood made America aspirational. K-pop made South Korea cool. Bollywood made India feel global. These are the specific cultural exports that shaped how nations are perceived Hollywood made America aspirational. K-pop made South Korea cool. Bollywood made India feel global. These are the specific …
About that disinflation ... maybe not
Neil Irwin Just a few weeks ago, there were plenty of reasons to expect inflation pressures to fade in the back half of 2026. The latest evidence makes that seem a little less sure. Why it matters: These are new cracks in the disinflationary narrative, which raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to forestall interest rate increases Price pressures are not looking as severe as they did in the spring, when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked and oil prices were at a multiyear high.
Fed saw "upside risks" to inflation, disagreed on rate path
Federal Reserve officials saw a wide range of scenarios for how the economy and inflation will evolve at their meeting last month, leaving the central bank's policy committee divided over the path for interest rates ahead, according to minutes released Wednesday.
Fed saw "upside risks" to inflation, disagreed on rate path
15 hours ago The BBC's new director general has described the traditional TV licence model as "a busted flush" and "no longer fit for purpose". In his first major public appearance since taking over the BBC six weeks ago, former Google executive Matt Brittin told MPs that the licence fee is "yesterday's …
FOMC minutes: How much will the Fed tell us?
The minutes of the Federal Reserve policy meeting three weeks ago, due out Wednesday afternoon, are shaping up to be the most attention-worthy in recent memory. Why it matters: Policy appears to be on edge, with Fed officials deeply divided over whether an interest rate increase is in order. Chairman Kevin Warsh has declined to signal his own instincts and has backed away from the practice of sending explicit guidance about future policy moves.
Americans' inflation outlook is still high, per NY Fed survey
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Consumer Expectations; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios. With energy prices falling back toward pre-Iran war levels, you might expect Americans' inflation outlook to improve. You would be wrong, at least according to one major survey. Driving the news: The New York Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a 0.2 percentage point rise in respondents' expected inflation for both the next year and the next three years.
The bond market's new bet on interest rates
Now European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, arrived in Ankara on July 7 for a NATO summit focused …
Measurement tweaks will make inflation data look better
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The World Cup's hiring head fake
With the U.S. hosting the World Cup, there have been plenty of anecdotes about a booming tourism economy in host cities — Scotland fans drinking Boston bars out of beer, for example. But no World Cup hiring bump is evident in the June employment data. By the numbers: Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61,000 jobs in June. That's the category that includes restaurant and hotel employment and is most sensitive to tourism trends.
Top central bankers are eager to rewrite the playbook
It's not just an American thing. Central bankers from other top Western democracies also believe that they should communicate less about where policy is going. Why it matters: There was striking alignment of views among the heads of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve on display in Portugal.
The Fed's independence is still on the line
On the surface, Monday's Supreme Court ruling that keeps Lisa Cook in place as a Federal Reserve governor for now was a win for believers that the central bank works best when insulated from the day-to-day control of the president. The details aren't so clear. The big picture: The court punted on several key questions that will determine how much ability President Trump and his successors have to fire Fed governors.
Fed's Warsh, jobs report, and more econ data on tap this week
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2 Supreme Court rulings treat the Fed as an exception Original
The Federal Reserve is different. That's the upshot of the Supreme Court's rulings Monday morning. Why it matters: President Trump can't fire Fed governor Lisa Cook for now, a 5-4 court majority held, alongside an opinion that offers a sweeping defense of the central bank's independence. But the ruling is narrow enough that Trump and future presidents have latitude to fire Fed governors if they can establish legal cause more carefully than Trump did in the Cook case.
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