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Articles by Nicholas Danforth
Beyond Bad Borders: How Nationalism, Imperialism, and Power Politics Shaped the Modern Middle East
In 2014, the Islamic State swept across large swaths of Iraq and Syria, soon emerging as the obligatory lede for every article about the Middle East and its history. Western commentators were quick to denounce the group’s radical theology and penchant for beheading. But they had little to say about its surprisingly mainstream take on the origin of modern Middle Eastern borders.
Texting Military Plans Is Bad. American Policy in Yemen Is Worse.
Since news broke that Trump administration officials shared details of military strikes on Yemen via a group chat that included The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, condemnation from national security professionals has been swift. But missing from much of the 24/7 news coverage of Signal-gate has been a focus on the actual substance of the text messages and what they reveal about Trump’s approach to the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy more broadly.
Will Gulf Countries Think Trump's Glitter Is Gold?
Donald Trump has quickly made it clear that the guiding light in his relationships with Arab countries of the Gulf will be his trademark transactionalism. In the first days of his new term, he announced that he was entertaining the idea of Saudi Arabia being his first foreign destination—if the Kingdom helped bring down oil prices and increased its investments in the United States to $1 trillion.
Damascus Dispatch: Fear and Hope in a Divided Syria
The new masters of Sayida Zaynab, a famous Shia shrine in the countryside outside Damascus, strode with confidence across the nearly empty marble courtyard, ignoring audible grumbles from the few remaining pilgrims and staffers. Abu Omar, the shrine’s new head of security, wears his beard long and ragged, in a style often associated with purist Sunnis.
Will Sectarian Massacres Derail Syria’s Transition?
Century International: On Thursday, March 6, Syria’s new rulers began a military crackdown on what they described as a nascent insurgency by supporters of the deposed Assad regime in the coastal region. In the violence that ensued, hundreds of civilians were killed, in addition to large numbers of both pro- and anti-government combatants. Credible evidence implicates regime militias in sectarian massacres of Alawite Syrians. How widespread is sectarian violence? Is it ongoing?
Iraq Walks a Tightrope into the New Trump Era
Donald Trump’s second presidency promises another four-year tightrope walk for Iraq. More than two decades after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains deeply linked, if not dependent, on American security institutions, markets, and banks. Yet it also has strong historical, cultural, economic, and security ties—not to mention a 1,000-mile border—with Iran, which Trump is again poised to treat as an enemy.
Trump and Erdogan: Corrupt Friends or Civilizational Foes?
American relations with Turkey have always contained contradictions. As Donald Trump embarks on another four years of foreign policy transactionalism, it’s hard to know what U.S.–Turkey trend will win out: a deepening authoritarian embrace with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or increasing enmity grounded in opposing regional goals and cultural prejudice. Either way, the results will almost certainly be bad. But even in this grim moment, there are small opportunities.
Economists Agree: Trump Is Wrong on Tariffs
As President Trump threatens to slap steep tariffs on many countries, he is boasting that his taxes on imports will be a boon to the U.S. economy, but most economists strongly disagree—many say Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation, slow economic growth, hurt U.S. workers and result in American consumers footing the bill for his tariffs.
Two States, Together: An Alternative Vision for Palestinians and Israelis
After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s maximalist response, it is clearer than ever that in conflict and geopolitics, the unimaginable can rapidly become reality, in the Middle East and all over the world. No violent conflict can again be considered “manageable.” But transformation isn’t always for the worse. In Syria, the entrenched dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad spectacularly collapsed in December, opening up paths toward better governance and a rebalanced regional order.
Sustainable estrangement: Embracing the new normal in US-Turkish relations
The last four years have helped consolidate low-key estrangement as the new normal in U.S.-Turkish relations. After decades of worrying about losing Turkey, Washington has now lowered its expectations for Turkish cooperation while seeking simply to avert new crises. So long as Turkey avoids actively supporting U.S. rivals, picking fights with U.S. partners, or blocking key NATO business, this status quo can work for Washington.
Spotlight on Moldova: Chisinau’s Ambassador Talks Democracy, Security and Wine
Nick Danforth sat down with Moldovan Ambassador to the United States Viorel Ursu last week to discuss democracy, energy and Russian hybrid warfare, not to mention Black Sea security and the post-conflict politics of wine exports. Image: U.S. Army National Guard photos by Army Pfc. Andrea Torres
Revisiting the Adams Colony Affair in Palestine
The story involves a lapsed actor, former Mormon abolitionist and hard-drinking Zionist prophet who sets off from Maine in 1866 to colonize Palestine. He fails spectacularly and his followers, after facing disease, bandits and financial ruin, end up on a ship home with a highly amused Mark Twain. Not surprisingly, the would-be colonists’ misadventure has attracted some interest over the years.
Iraq Between Suits and Fatigues
Last week, Nick Danforth sat down with Denise Natali, Doug Ollivant and Bilal Wahab to discuss the latest in Iraqi politics? They debated what Iraq was like on Oc. 6th, how it has been impacted by the war in Gaza, and where the country will be five years from now. Image: Tasnim News Agency
Ukraine Prepares for 2024
Nick sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss where the Russo-Ukrainian conflict stands at the start of 2024. They talked through the situation on the front lines, naval developments in the Black Sea and Russia’s cynical diplomacy, as well as Moscow’s growing munitions advantage and what went wrong with the Ukrainian offensive.
Japan Re-evaluates Regional Threats
Nick sat down in Tokyo last week with Satoru Mori and Yasuhiro Izumikawa to discuss the evolution of Japan’s threat perceptions and defense planning. They also shared their thoughts on how Japan views the challenge posed by China, a potential Taiwan scenario, and the current conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. Image: Japanese Ministry of Defense
Finding the Floor: Can the U.S. and China Stabilize Their Relationship?
Nick sat down with Evan Medeiros, Thomas Shugart and Emily Weinstein to take stock of where U.S.-Chinese relations stand today and where they might be going. Can President Biden’s diplomatic push pay off? How will Taiwan’s elections and Beijing’s internal shakeup change the equation? What lessons is President Xi Jinping actually learning from the invasion of Ukraine? And can the U.S. and China ultimately find a stable floor for their bilateral relationship or are they headed toward conflict?
Ukrainian Progress: A Breach or a Breakthrough of Russian Lines?
Nick Danforth sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss the state of the Ukrainain offensive three months in, as well as the challenges of assessing it. Mike also explained why he, as an analyst, was particularly pleased to have Yevgeny Prigozhin out of the picture.
A Contest of Wills: Ukraine's Summer Offensive
On this episode, Nick sits down with Mike to discuss Ukraine’s ongoing offensive. The conversation discussed the latest from Ukraine’s three axes of advance. The two also covered the latest reports from both the Washington Post and the New York Times focused on the U.S. government’s growing pessimism about the offensive, as well as how to judge Ukrainian military action.
Online discussion: “Transactionalism Tested: Hope, Frustration and the Future of US-Turkish Ties”
Following Turkey’s presidential elections, attention has once again turned toward the country’s ongoing balancing act over Ukraine. Allies continue to wait for Ankara to officially confirm Sweden’s NATO membership, as the corresponding fate of F-16 sales remains uncertain in Washington. Meanwhile, Turkish-Russian ties are now strained over the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and cross-border aid to Syria.
Ukraine's Offensive and Russia's Localized Counterattacks
In today’s episode, Mike looks at the slow progress of the Ukrainian offensive and what, if anything, it means for the course of the war. He also discusses Russia’s defensive strategy and how grateful he is not to be in Yevgeny Prigozhin’s head. Mike and Nick recorded this show on Friday, June 23rd before the Wagner insurrection began to escalate. We will have more podcasts and articles on the recent events in Russia in the coming days and weeks. Image: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
Erdoğan's Marriage of Religion and Nationalism
Victories are always a good time for gloating. Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, recently took the opportunity to taunt the Western press for imagining that Erdogan might lose, tweeting “Bye bye” at a collage of magazine front pages after the president came out ahead in the first round of presidential elections earlier this month.
A Fetih Accompli: How Erdogan Married Religion and Nationalism
On the anniversary of Istanbul’s conquest, the Turkish president’s successful fusion of the secular and the divine may be his most potent legacy Victories are always a good time for gloating.
Elections in Turkey: A post-Erdoğan future?
Twitter Join the conversation on Twitter using #TurkishElection On May 14, Turkey will hold what could end up as its most consequential election of the last decade, with huge implications for the country’s domestic trajectory, its neighborhood, and the global balance of power. For the first time in his two decades of rule, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is facing a real challenge in the form of an anti-Erdoğan majority and a united opposition bloc.
The Military and Great Powers: The Latest From Latin America, Part 2
March 23, 2023 Nicholas Danforth recently sat down with Agustina Giraudy, Adam Isacson and Anya Prusa to discuss the latest political developments in Latin America. This the second installment of our two-part podcast on Latin America. The conversation began with an overview of the role of the military in different Latin American countries, before pivoting to an examination of regional views of great powers.
The Latest From Latin America, Part 1
Nicholas Danforth recently sat down with Agustina Giraudy, Adam Isacson and Anya Prusa to discuss the latest political developments in Latin America. This two-part podcast covers the rise of the Left in the region as well as its implications for relations with Washington, Moscow and Beijing. Image: The White House
War on the Rocks
Mike Kofman sat down with Nicholas Danforth to discuss Russia’s latest offensive, it’s focus, and why it has been underwhelming so far. The conversation analyzes the current state of the conflict, where it may be headed, the constraints each side may face in the coming months, and whether this year could see decisive turning points in the war. Image: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
The Return of Cartography
Drawn by American illustrator Ernest Dudley Chase at the end of World War II, it captures the heady optimism surrounding the defeat of fascism and the foundation of the United Nations. Churchill, Roosevelt, and Stalin, along with smaller figures in a fez, sombrero, and turban, jointly turn a capstan in the center of Eurasia. A series of insets show mankind advancing from the caveman family through the state to world government.
The Return of Cartography
Editor’s Note: This is a preview of Midafternoon Map, War on the Rocks’ latest members-only newsletter. Midafternoon Map provides a cartographic perspective on current events, geopolitics, and history. In each installment we’ll explore the role of maps in reflecting, distorting, and ultimately creating reality. At best, cartography can play a unique role in simplifying matters that appear complex and complicating matters that appear simple.
Winter in Europe
Europe is facing a hard winter, but support for Ukraine remains strong. Russia’s war has highlighted many of the challenges the continent already confronted, from internal divisions within the European Union to a deep dependence on Russian energy. It has added newfound urgency to the search for solutions, even as these new solutions create trade-offs of their own.
Winter in Europe Original
Editor’s note: War on the Rocks recently published an 8-part Warcast series for members about the impact the war in Ukraine has had on European politics and Europe’s economy. The series, “Winter in Europe”, is available for members. To listen to the entire series, please consider joining our membership program. We have new members-only content coming soon, beginning in November with “The Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman,” a bi-weekly podcast about the Russian military.
Why Russia's Failure in Ukraine Is a Win for Erdogan
This week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly threatened to invade Greece, then, without missing a beat, condemned the West’s provocative approach to Russia. And yet, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ankara has been eager to tout its unique success in balancing between both sides of the conflict to the benefit of Turkey, NATO, and the world.
How Much Multipolarity Does a Strongman Need?: Why Erdogan Has Benefited From Russia’s Failure in Ukraine
This week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly threatened to invade Greece, then, without missing a beat, condemned the West’s provocative approach to Russia. And yet, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ankara has been eager to tout its unique success in balancing between both sides of the conflict to the benefit of Turkey, NATO, and the world.
Turkey’s threat to derail Swedish and Finnish NATO accession reraises the Kurdish question
Turkey’s opposition to Sweden and Finland joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine has elevated the Kurdish question on the international stage. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is attempting to capitalize on the urgency of fortifying Western deterrence by increasing the pressure on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Trans-Atlantic Scorecard - January 2022
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Welcome to the fourteenth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE). To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations with Europe — overall and in the political, security, and economic dimensions — as well as on the state of U.S. relations with five key countries and the European Union itself.
By Riccardo Alcaro, Pavel K. Baev, Carlo Bastasin, Célia Belin, Max Bergmann, Nicholas Danforth, Giovanna De Maio, James Goldgeier, Daniel Hamilton, Ryan Hass, Bruce Jones, Lucian Kim, James Kirchick Verified, Anand Menon, Manuel Muñiz, Ted Piccone, Steven Pifer, Jana Puglierin, Douglas Rediker, Rachel Rizzo, Jeremy Shapiro, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Angela Stent, Georgina Wright, Thomas Wright, Samuel Denney
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Brookings Institution
Protecting The Hazara People Of Afghanistan Is A Moral Obligation The World Is Failing To Meet
Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in September, more than 2,800 Hazara Shiites were forcibly evicted from their homes. As an ethnic and religious minority,targeted violence from the Taliban and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) is not new but is worsening under the Taliban’s rule. The rapid increase in human rights violations against the backdrop of a century-long pattern of systemic oppression has increased the risk of the Hazaras facingimminent ethnic cleansing.
Rightsizing in the Middle East
Since declaring his candidacy for president, Joe Biden, like his two Oval Office predecessors, has made it clear that he wants to rebalance the United States’ military presence in the Middle East.
Trans-Atlantic Scorecard - October 2021
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Welcome to the thirteenth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative.
By Riccardo Alcaro, Emma Ashford, Pavel K. Baev, Carlo Bastasin, Célia Belin, Max Bergmann, Sophia Besch, Nicholas Danforth, Giovanna De Maio, James Goldgeier, Lucian Kim, James Kirchick Verified, Kemal Kirisci, Anand Menon, Manuel Muñiz, Ted Piccone, Steven Pifer, Jana Puglierin, Douglas Rediker, Jeremy Shapiro, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Angela Stent, Thomas Wright
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Brookings Institution
An Enduring Tension: Turkey Caught in the Middle
Penning an obituary for Lawrence of Arabia in 1935, the editor of the Turkish satirical weekly Akbaba announced: “Lawrence is dead. As with any miracle, it is not easy to believe the good news.” “The world’s gain,” he went on, “is as great as England’s loss,” for Lawrence was a microbe “more fearsome than the plague.” There was only one problem: Lawrence might now spread unrest in the hereafter.
Interpreting the 2021 German federal election results
Twitter Join the conversation on Twitter using #GermanElection The Merkel era is drawing to a close… sort of. After 16 years, Germans will go to the polls on September 26 to elect a new chancellor. But with a fragmented German party landscape, and record numbers of mail-in ballots and undecided voters, the outcome remains more open than in any postwar German election.
Israel asks Egypt to pressure Hamas to end border violence
September 3, 2021 Israel’s Coordinator Of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) Rassan Alian and the head of the Africa/Middle East desk at the National Security Council, whose name is forbidden from publication, visited Egypt Sept. 2 and met with senior intelligence officials there. Israeli press reports said that the two Israeli officials asked their Egyptian interlocutors to pressure Hamas to stop the ongoing nightly demonstrations at the Gaza border.
Norway police seize nearly 100 artifacts reportedly missing from Iraq
Norwegian police have seized a heap of Mesopotamian artifacts in southeast Norway, which the Iraqi government has requested be repatriated. Authorities on Friday said the seizure consisted of what are presumed to be cuneiform tablets and other archaeological objects from ancient Mesopotamia. Experts are now examining the objects to determine their authenticity and possible origin. AFP reports the Iraqi government had submitted a restitution request to Norway’s Ministry of Culture.
Will Russia be able to maintain the status quo in Syria's Daraa despite Assad and Iran?
On the evening of Tuesday, Aug. 31, a cease-fire agreement was reached between the so-called "reconciled rebels" in the rebel-held city of Daraa al-Balad and the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The agreement provides for government forces to lift the monthslong siege on the city, which in recent days has been attacked and shelled by Assad's forces in an attempt to take control of it.
How will Taliban’s return affect jihadi movements in Turkey, Syria?
The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has raised complex questions over the future of Salafi-jihadi movements, including in Turkey and neighboring Syria where the threat from such groups has been largely contained. Whether the risks heighten down the road will depend largely on how the Taliban shape their relationship with jihadi groups in Afghanistan. Turkish Islamists of various stripes hailed the Taliban’s takeover, though some apparently had to tamp down their jubilation.
Boxed in: Bennett, Abbas can’t win despite ‘goodwill gestures’ Original
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett followed through on his promise to US President Joe Biden at their White House meeting on Aug. 27 to improve conditions for the Palestinians and de-escalate political tensions. These goodwill gestures, including $155 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority (PA), have so far fallen flat. What are considered compromised or halfway measures have given no political bounces for Bennett and PA President Mahmoud Abbas, who are boxed in by domestic politics.
Israel allows construction materials into Gaza without prisoner exchange
For the first time since the cease-fire between Israel and the Hamas movement took effect on May 21, Israel has allowed the entry of building materials to the private sector in the Gaza Strip. Israel had demanded the release of four Israelis detained by Hamas in Gaza before authorizing the reconstruction of the besieged enclave. The Gaza Strip is inhabited by more than 2 million Palestinians and has been besieged by Israel since the summer of 2006.
US sanctions four Iranians over plot to kidnap New York activist
The United States on Friday sanctioned four Iranian intelligence operatives who federal prosecutors say plotted to abduct a New York-based activist and journalist. The US Treasury Department announced the designation of senior Iranian intelligence official Alireza Shahvaroghi Farahani, as well as three other Iranian operatives, Mahmoud Khazein, Kiya Sadeghi and Omid Noori.
Clashes in Libya’s capital raise concerns over stability ahead of elections
Libya’s capital, Tripoli, saw intense fighting between rival armed factions before dawn on Friday morning, raising concern for the country’s fragile cease-fire ahead of historic nationwide elections set for December. Residents reported gunfire around 2:30 a.m. in the densely populated Salahuddin district in Tripoli’s south, according to Reuters. At least some of the fighting was between two major militias, the Stabilization Support Force and the 444 Brigade.
Gestures toward Palestinians leave Bennett in bind
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is caught between a rock and a hard place. He promised US President Joe Biden at their Aug. 27 White House meeting to take steps to improve the lives and economic opportunities of Palestinians. But his predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu is constantly breathing down his neck, seeking every opportunity to portray him as a leftist.
Israeli state budget passes preliminary vote
Israeli Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman was in high spirits Sept. 2, as he roamed the Knesset’s corridors. A few hours before, the Knesset approved a first reading (out of three required readings) of the state budget for 2021-22, and he knew that he would get past this ominous hurdle, which threatened the government’s stability. Liberman worked hard over the last few days, searching for solutions and compromises, and dismantling the many obstacles along the way.
UAE sends aid to Taliban’s Afghanistan
The United Arab Emirates sent humanitarian aid to Afghanistan on Friday. The plane brought “urgent” medical and food aid to the country, which the Taliban took nearly complete control of last month during the US military pullout. The UAE framed the dispatch as part of its commitment to "provide full support to the brotherly Afghan people,” the official Emirates News Agency reported.
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