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Articles by O. A. Cleveland
Are Stronger Exports Signaling Improved Cotton Demand? — Louisiana Farm Bureau News
By Dr. O. A. Cleveland Cotton Grower Cotton hit a positive note this past week in the export sales report, but we will need more. Too, there is another positive note that merits a few comments as well. READ MORE
Cotton Continues To Battle Bearish Indicators As 2025 Begins — Louisiana Farm Bureau News
By Dr. O. A. Cleveland Cotton Grower The New Year brings joy and hope for another successful cotton year. While the beginning of the year saw prices fall below 68 cents, the market still projects a recovery to the 72-cent level. Yet, most fundamentals point to lower prices, at least until the expiry of the March futures contract. READ MORE
Cotton Market Shows Life As March Contract Period Begins — Louisiana Farm Bureau News
By Dr. O. A. Cleveland Cotton Grower Strong export sales, coupled with the beginning of the December contract’s expiry, brought life to the cotton market. The expiring December contract had a limit and near limit-up move as December futures gave way to the March contract as the nearby trading contract. READ MORE
Cotton Prices Tumble to 60 cents Range
The series of big ugly weekly export sales reports finally caught up with cotton prices as the week ended with a triple digit selloff, down 182 points on Friday alone, and settling the week at 60.10 cents. While prices had climbed to a four month to near 65 cents they have now given back some five cents in just over a week. We had noted the miserable weekly export sales reports last week and another was reported this week.
Cotton Prices Face Bearish Outlook
Cotton prices eased up to 65 cents and, as feared, backed off and are now dog peddling as December futures attempts to hold the 62-cent level. In fact, the weekly settlement for December, 61.94 cents reflects a bearish view moving forward. Despite the potential production disaster developing in the US Southwest, the world supply demand balance sheet continues to reflect that the world effectively has a full year’s usage on hard—before the 2020 harvest even begins.
Cleveland On Cotton: 80 Cents Possible?
Cotton prices caught a break this week from what many called a neutral world supply demand report. The declining volume of world cotton stocks was the highlight of USDA’s October report and rode the wave nearly 200 points higher as it pressured the 79-cent level before settling the week at 78.37.
Cleveland On Cotton: So Much For Tariffs Or Making Farmers “Whole”
A crisis has taken shape in the Cotton Belt and in the broader Heartland, and agriculture is leading the charge to disaster. Every morning begins with the chimes of two thoughts: I am wrong on trade and consequently I am wrong the market. We had considerable success earlier in the year and fixed the bulk of the crop between 80 and 94 cents, basis December. Yet, I also felt that the December futures would rally and challenge 80 cents and above.
Cleveland On Cotton: China Buying Elsewhere But Still Reasons For Optimism
Cleveland On Cotton: China Buying Elsewhere But Still Reasons For Optimism Posted on September 28, 2018September 28, 2018 By O.A. Cleveland, Consulting Economist, Cotton Experts Where is Billy Dunavant when we really need him? Cotton prices have taken nearly a ten-cent nose dive – a 1,000 points – in the past three months. In the face of this, world ending stocks have decreased and world consumption has increased. Expect stocks to further decline.
Cleveland: USDA Turns the Bulls Loose
Say it again: Technicals are the leading indicator of fundamentals; they kept telling us higher prices were coming. Cotton prices gapped higher on the week, climbing to a two-year high and breaking out of a long term 10 cent trading channel. The U.S. Department of Agriculture finally blessed the demand increase seen in China, as well as the realization that it had overestimated various supplies of cotton stocks around the world.
Watching Bulls, Bears and Fundamentals
New York futures continue to surprise some traders, as they have become transfixed on the potential size of the 2016 U.S. crop. The crop is on tap to be a big one. An absolute disaster would yield an estimated 14 million bales, while exceptional weather hitting on all cylinders could produce a crop of over 17 million. Yet, those would be for the absolute worst and best production scenarios.
Cleveland: A Fun Week of Bulls, Bears and Brexit
You just can’t hold a good man down (or woman). They find a way to survive. The ole salty male cotton grower is famous for crossing the gender line with his saying, “Cotton is like a good woman. It promises less and gives more than anything else in the world.” The cotton market experienced a very fun and exciting week as trading focused on strong fundamentals factors, both of the bullish and bearish variety.
Commodity and Mill Actions Pushing Cotton Higher
Hedge fund managers continue to juice the cotton market – overbought as it is – as fund money continues to flow to all commodities, especially oilseed and metal markets. As previously mentioned, commodities continue to be the darling of investment funds. Cotton trading closed above six month highs and spent time trading above nine month highs during the past week. This was a treat for a market that had only produced negative annual returns as the year approached its midpoint.
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