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Articles by Omen IV
Mark Zuckerberg's Long Litany Of Failings - Mainstream Media Turns On Social Media
The mainstream media is a fickle beast beholden to the direction of the prevailing political winds. Unfortunately for Facebook, Google and Twitter, those winds have turned about face in recent weeks as the political establishment thrashes about in its misguided efforts to prove that – aided by social media - Russia changed the course of the 2016 presidential election.
Kentucky Teachers Blast Pension Reform Plan; Warn That 401(k) Plans Will "Dismantle Public Education"
Graves County Superintendent Kim Dublin in Kentucky is apparently concerned that forcing her teachers to accept the same retirement plans offered to almost every private sector employee in the country would literally "dismantle public education" as we know it.
Christopher Columbus Statue Vandalized In Baltimore: "He's Central To The Narrative Of White Nationalism"
Baltimore's 225-year-old monument to Christopher Columbus, said to be the oldest in the country and the world dedicated to the explorer that is still standing, has been severely vandalized. This morning the words on the statue – Sacred to the Memory of Chris. Columbus Oct. XII MDCC VIIIC – were unreadable, a hole smashed in the stone. “Racism: Tear it down,” one sign leaning on the monument base says. “The future is racial and economic justice,” said another sign that was lying in the grass.
The Obama Erasure: "He Came Bearing Hope, He Leaves Full Of Fear"
Authored by Edward Luce, originally posted at FT.com, It was tempting to believe history had turned a page. Alas, posterity may see Barack Obama’s 2008 election as a detour from the path an angry America took after 9/11. Mr Obama called for an open dialogue with the Muslim world. Donald Trump and his team have all but declared war on Islam. Mr Obama believed there was no problem that could not be salved by reason. Mr Trump has opposite instincts.
Watergate's Bob Woodward: "Clinton Foundation Is Corrupt, It's A Scandal"
It's one thing for the right-wing press to accuse the Clinton foundation of cronyism, corruption, and scandal (especially if the facts, and internal admissions by affiliated employees, confirm as much) - it tends to be generally ignored by the broader, if left-leaning, media. But when the Watergate scandal's Bob Woodward, associate editor at the liberal Washington Post, says very much the same, Hillary Clinton's campaign has no choice but to notice.
Goldman Beats On Rebound In FICC, Prop Trading As Headcount, Comp Slashed
After last quarter's brutal results, which saw the worst revenue for Goldman Sachs since Q4 2011, the question about Goldman's Q2 earnings report was not if it would beat but by how much. Moments ago we got the answer when the company reported Q2 EPS of $3.72, handily beating consensus estimates of $2.68, but down 21% from last year's $4.75 (ex-charges) EPS.
JPMorgan Says Recession Odds Rise To New Cycle Highs
While not quite as dire as the recent analysis by Deutsche Bank which calculated recession odds in the next 12 months as more than likely, or 60% as of last weekend, moments ago JPM released its own latest recession probability analysis, and - somewhat unexpectedly following today's outlier jobs report - sees a 37% chance of a receession in the next 12 months. This is the highest recession probability calculated by Jamie Dimon's bank during the current economic cycle.
Istanbul Turns Into A Ghost Town As Tourism Collapses
In the aftermath of the tragic suicide bomber attacks at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport, Turkey's biggest city now feels like a ghost town. Restaurants sit empty in the Sultanahmet tourist district, and five-star hotel rooms can be booked for bargain prices.
Hillary's Closest Aide Admits Clinton 'Illegally' Burned Daily Schedule
Just two weeks after we exposed the fact that Hillary Clinton's official calendar is "missing" a lot of entries, more 'illegal' allegations are being exposed from her reign as Secretary of State.
An 85 Percent Probability of Black Swan Event in Bond Markets (Video)
Almost one year ago we released these five charts, demonstrating the extreme nature of the bear market in gold stocks.
In Surprise Twist, EU Will Resume Turkey EU Membership Talks Just Days After Brexit Referendum
It appears that David Cameron may have fibbed a bit when he said that one of the most contentious issues behind the Brexit campaign, namely the treatment of Turkish EU membership, won't be a topic for "decades" and that Turkey won't join the EU until the year 3000.
Orlando Shooter's Employer Admits It Made A "Clerical Error" Regarding His Mental Health
As details continue to emerge surrounding Orlando shooter Omar Mateen, so do the holes in the narrative. Case in point, last week's statement by the shooter's employer, G4S, the world's largest security company, that he had passed a 2007 psychological text without any problems. The document that G4S submitted to Florida state listed psychologist Carol Nudelman.
Dogshit & Sugar-Tax In Philadelphia: "The Stupid, It Burns"
Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog, Earlier this week I left for work on a cool crisp sunny morning at 6:30 am. Traffic seemed lighter than usual. Even the Schuylkill Expressway was moving smoothly. I just knew it was going to be one of those rare 45 minute uneventful commutes. Boy was I mistaken. Half way down the Schuylkill traffic came to a grinding halt. I flipped on the traffic report and found out there was a bad bus accident near Girard Avenue blocking two lanes.
European Peripheral Bond Risk Explodes: Forget Brexit, "Now It's Italy's Turn"
If there was any doubt that Brexit was "relevant" then the surges in European peripheral bond risk, despite massive bond-buying by The ECB, should send shivers up and down the status quo huggers that are shrugging the referendum decision off because "central banks will provide liquidity." However, it's not just The UK that EU officials need to worry about, as The Globalist notes, Germany will have to change its policies if it wants to avoid exit of other countries from the eurozone.
We Break Down the Dumbest Trade on Wall Street (Video)
Which of these crazy real estate markets will be the first to bust?
The Pension Bubble: How The Defaults Will Occur
Written by Peter Diekmeyer (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL) Experts worry about stock, bond and real estate market excesses. But a bubble is forming that dwarfs them all: in pension plans. Millions of Americans and Canadians who are counting on pension benefits to fund their retirements risk being severely disappointed. The hard money community has, of course, been aware of this for some time. However in recent years, even the elites have been taking notice.
Copper Is Crashing After Huge Spike In Inventories
Copper futures are tumbling by the most in 2 months (testing back towards 4 month lows) after the biggest two-day increase in copper stockpiles monitored by LME since 2004. Dr.Copper is sick... As LME Copper inventories explode higher... As Bloomberg details, Copper held in Asian warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange jumped 50 percent in the past two days, the most in seven years.
Obama's Latest Whopper - Let's Raise Social Security Benefits!
Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The U.S. has approximately $80 trillion of unfunded liabilities for social security, medicare and other entitlements sitting atop a work force that is rapidly aging and an economy that is lapsing into stasis.
"Dwayne Pimps 3 Ho's" - Alabama Math Quiz Veers Too Close To Real Life
No, this is not from The Onion. In an apparent attempt to make math more relevant to the young people of Alabama, a teacher at Burns Middle School in Mobile, required eighth-graders to take a math quiz that drew complaints from parents about inappropriate themes and racist overtones. As The Washington Post reports, nearly 900 students are enrolled at Burns Middle School, about 50 percent of them black and 40 percent white, according to state data.
The Federal Reserve Has Created An Unprecedented Disaster For Pension Funds
When it comes to the Fed, Congress is mired in hypocrisy. The anti-regulation, de-regulation crowd on Capitol Hill shuts its mouth when it comes to the most powerful regulators of all – you and the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Congress goes along with the out-of-control, private government of the Fed—unaccountable to the national legislature. Moreover, your massive monetary injections scarcely led to any jobs on the ground, other than stock and bond processors.
Hey Democrats: A Vote For Hillary Clinton Is Actually A Vote For Donald Trump
With California finally mattering in an election season, it might be the final state primary before the Democratic race for president is set in stone. Regardless, recent developments have made one thing astoundingly clear: Donald Trump will almost surely defeat Hillary Clinton in a head to head matchup - and that’s why a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for Donald Trump.
Daiwa: "Round Two Of China Capital Outflows Is About To Begin"
Now that all eyes have turned on China eager to find how it will react to a potential Fed rate hike in June or July, the question is whether the sharp Chinese devaluation unveiled overnight, which sent the Yuan to fresh 5 year lows, will be a one-off event, and whether the PBOC will intervene far more aggressively in the offshore CNY market to keep FX market turmoil to a minimum. According to at least one person, the answer is no.
Academic Skullduggery - How Ivory Tower Hubris Wrecks Your Life
In the 1970s economists started to incorporate rational expectations into their models and not long after the seminal Kydand & Prescott (1977) article named Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plan was published. Their work has been driving the mainstream macroeconomic debate ever since.
Six Reasons Why Goldman Is Suddenly Warning About A "Large Drop" In The Market
After recent (and in some cases very dramatic) bearish conversions by the likes of JPM, BofA, Citi and UBS, the only bank that steadfastly held a bullish view on stocks during the recent market squeeze higher was Goldman Sachs. Not any more.
The Dismal Retirement Picture For America's Older Generation
As we have pointed out many times in the past (most recently here), the jobs "recovery" has gone disproportionately to older workers at the expense of younger workers. In fact, as Bloomberg points out, the employment-to-population ratio for those 65 and over is at its highest level since the early 1960's.
How Hedge Funds Invest Heavily In Washington D.C.'s Culture Of Corruption
Earlier this week, Ryan Grim and Paul Blumenthal published a blockbuster piece in the Huffington Post, titled: The Vultures’ Vultures: How A New Hedge-Fund Strategy Is Corrupting Washington. It details the secretive world of the dark money groups representing mercenary hedge funds in their insatiable quest for more and more money. In many ways, it’s merely a microcosm of America in 2016.
Hedge Fund Billionaire Spends $13 Million Supporing Ted Cruz, Then Immediately Flips To Hillary Clinton
For those confused by the whole power triangle between Ted Cruz, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump, and which candidate stood for what and represents whom, the following brief anecdote from the Guardian should explain all one needs to know. The world’s top 25 hedge fund managers earned $13bn last year – more than the entire economies of Namibia, the Bahamas or Nicaragua.
Nordstrom Plummets After Reporting Terrible Earnings, Slashing Guidance
After many prominent blow ups in the retail and consumer space in the past week, moments ago Nordstrom was the latest casualty of the US consumer's unwillingness to spend money when the company reported Q1 EPS of $0.26, missing consensus estimates of $0.46 by nearly half, and about a third of what the company earned last year despite relatively flat revenues of $3.25 billion which also missed expectations of $3.29 billion. Comparable sales dropped -1.7% on estimates of an unchanged print.
Stop Blaming Consumers, They Can't Help It!
Since 2009, mainstream economists, the media, and the Fed have continued to prognosticate a resurgence of economic growth. Yet each year, as shown in the chart of Fed forecasts below, such predictions have repeatedly overstated reality. Since the economy is almost 2/3rds driven by consumption, it was only a function of time before these same individuals, consistently wrong, lash out at those directly responsible for their shortcomings – the consumer.
NIRP's Not Working
Einstein's defintion of insanity was "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome." It appears, judging by the world's central bankers' utter failure to ignite anything but speculative bubbles in risk assets they are all insane and, while the phenomenon of negative rates is relatively new in Europe and Japan (in other words they can decalre it too soon to judge), it has been four years since Denmark went full NIRP-tard, and inflation has done nothing but collapse.
"I Mean, Every Trade Was A Tick Up" - Steve Wynn Shows How Stocks Are Manipulated
At the end of Wynn's Q1 conference call, CEO Steve Wynn went on an epic tirade focusing initially on short sellers then shifting into a fascinating, and detailed, explanation of how HFTs manipulate his stock. What he explained happens to his stock when HFTs attempt to deceive traders, is what we have said ever since 2009. Here is the key excerpt from his conference call transcript. Well, we never know what the Street is going to do with the funky trading.
Trumped! Why It Happened And What Comes Next, Part 2 - The Peace Deal
When it comes to the economic future, a Trump presidency could bring either a shitstorm or salvation. Regrettably, the odds of the former are immensely the higher. That’s because Trump is a welcome, but extremely unguided missile. On the one hand, his great virtue is that he is a superb salesman and showman who has captured the GOP nomination and has a serious shot at the White House with absolutely no help whatsoever from the Washington/Wall Street establishment.
The World's Largest Shipping Company Is Already Preparing For The Next Oil Crash
It was almost a year ago, when having tumbled in early 2015, oil proceeded to rebound strongly into the summer, where it traded at about $60 for three months, before US production resumed resulting in the next big leg lower which culminated with this's February drop to 13 year lows. At that point a comparable rebound to last year materialized, and just like last year, the pundits have emerged claiming that there will be no further downside.
FOMC Preview: The Fed Is "Scared To Death" & "The Knock-On Effects Could Be Spectacular"
Federal Reserve officials are virtually certain to hold interest rates steady when their meeting ends today but they could try to send a message to markets and outside observers about what likely comes next. With no press conference scheduled after this week’s meeting and no new economic forecasts to be released, all the attention will be focused on their words and the market is more aware than ever that the Fed doesn’t act in a vacuum.
Oil Crash Creates Glut Of Petroleum Engineers - More Layoffs Coming
$240,000. More than British Prime Minister David Cameron earns per year. Back in 2013, Oilprice.com published an article about a cook on an Australian offshore platform earning this kind of salary during the heydays in the oil sector. But things have changed in the oil patch. For many years one of the most lucrative jobs in the already lucrative field of engineering was as a petroleum engineer.
Norway Offers Refugees Cash To Leave The Country
As European countries deal with the current refugee crisis, each is taking a slightly different approach in response to the escalating situation. In Norway, which has been shocked by the unfolding events in neighboring Sweden which has seen a mass revulsion at the ongoing refugee onslaught (and which recently announced it won't accept any more refugees from the EU) the answer appears to be the simplest possible one: offer asylum seekers money to leave.
"We Haven't Seen This Is In Our Lifetimes" - CEO Says "Alberta Is In A Depression"
Regular readers know that we've covered Alberta's decline at length (refresher here), so there is no need to give much of a backstory other than to say that the situation seems to get worse for the Canadian province as each day passes even as oil has rebounded in the past two months.
Stocks Stumble As Silver Soars Into Bull Market, Dollar Hits 10-Month Lows
We get the clear impression today that we heard this from the depths of The Eccles Building... As earnings offer little to no support whatever here.... This was the worst day for FANG stocks in 6 weeks - NFLX was crushed on weak growth expectations, (and non-FANG TSLA tanked on Consumer Reports questioning quality of Model X)... Which explains Nasdaq's considerable underperformance... (back into the red for the week) It was all about S&P 2,100 and Dow 18,000 again today...
Pushed Too Far - The Inveitable Costs Of The "Perpetual Money Machine"
Another unsettled week for global markets. Japan’s Nikkei equities index rallied 6.5%. Italian bank stocks surged 10%, with the Europe STOXX 600 Bank Index up 8.1%. Germany’s DAX equities index rallied 4.5%, with Spanish stocks up 5.0% and Italian 4.3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Financials index surged 5.9%. The EM market rally continued. U.S. bank stocks jumped 7.0%.
Oil Rally Fizzles After OPEC Sees Lower Global Demand; BofA Says "Reduce Risk Into Doha"
The ridiculous headline risk that is whipsawing oil showed up this morning yet again.
Shocking Statistic: Over 40% Of Student Borrowers Don't Make Payments
Department of Education Wonders “Why 40% of Student Borrowers Don’t Make Payments”; Blame Bush (Seriously)! Over 40 percent of those in student loan programs have stopped making payments. Many borrowers have never made any payments. The department of education (a useless body that I would eliminate in one second if given the chance), cannot figure out why this is happening.
Greeks Confiscate Largest Amount Of Gold Ever Smuggled
To some gold may not be "money", but to a group of Greeks it was worth far more than merely pet rocks. According to Ekathimerini, customs officials at the Greek-Turkish border crossing of Kipoi have confiscated the largest amount of gold that anyone has ever attempted to smuggle out of the country. The loot was found hidden in a taxi and consisted of 18 bars of unrefined gold, weighing 33.5 kilos, along with four crosses made of oure gold (11.6 grams).
Governor Of Puerto Rico Set To Impose Capital Controls To Preempt Bank Cash Run
Yesterday, in the latest plot twist surrounding the inevitable Puerto Rico default, we observed that after the commonwealth island's Senate passed a surprising bill to impose a debt moratorium on any future debt repayment, its bonds - predictably - tumbled. We also noted that the legislation addressed the Government Development Bank, or GDB, which is facing speculation that it’ll lapse into insolvency.
Noose Tightens On Clinton As Second Federal Judge Grants Discovery In E-Mail Fiasco
There have been some interesting developments in the Hillary Clinton e-mail saga over the past two weeks. In response to an FOIA request, conservative legal advocacy group Judicial Watch obtained documents which seem to show that Clinton was well aware her BlackBerry wasn’t secure from the very beginning of her tenure as the nation’s top diplomat.
Stocks Breaking Down, Corporate Profits Imploding, and the US in Recession
The S&P 500 has broken the rising wedge pattern that has sustained it throughout the bounce from the February lows. This is hitting as new evidence suggests corporate profits are collapsing at a pace not seen since the 2008 meltdown. This type of collapse does not occur outside of recessionary periods. The US data has yet to show a recession hitting because: 1) Most of the initial data points are too high and will be revised down in the near future.
Another Volcker Moment? Guessing The Future Without Say's Law
With Japanese and Eurozone interest rates becoming increasingly negative, and the Fed backing off from at least some of the planned increases in the Fed funds rate this year, economists are reassessing the interest rate outlook. Economists lack consensus, with some expecting yet more easing, based on the apparent collapse in cross-border trade last year.
BaNK LiVeS MaTTeR...
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Terrorists 0 - 1 Dip-Buyers
If you sell (or don't buy) then the terrorists have won... As if nothing ever happened. Remember Paris...
Currency Debasement & The Death Of Roman Emperors
In other words, just because two sets of data may follow a similar pattern, it does not mean there is any direct causal relationship. However, as VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins was assembling our previous research on Currency and the Collapse of the Roman Empire, we noticed something that was too uncanny to skip past: during the 113-year stretch of time from 192 to 305 AD, an astonishing amount of Roman emperors (84%) were either brutally murdered or assassinated.
Fight For Freedom Or Humbly Accept Submission
Submission to the state is a time-honoured tradition, a concept supported by governing bodies since time immemorial. In days of yore, men submitted to whichever member of the tribe was the mightiest in battle. By doing so, they stood a better chance of succeeding in battle, thereby diminishing the likelihood of their own death or enslavement. Later on, as tribes became more tied to the land and communities sprang up, the idea of a strong leader still made sense.
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