Founder of Pan African Institute for Evidence (PIE) Professor of Practice at UJ, Res. Res. Adv@ 22OnSloane, Former SG of SA and Head of Statistics South Africa
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Articles by Pali Lehohla
Why Tshwane needs better data to tackle spatial inequality
As a census expert, geography is crucial, and features help describe the area in which a census is to be undertaken by each enumerator. When the pin failed in modern navigation systems, I had to resort to the old trade of boundary and feature description to direct the driver who was going to pick me up from home this week.
Why Tshwane needs better data to tackle spatial inequality
Cape Times | October 20, 2026 AS A census expert, geography is crucial, and features help describe the area in which a census is to be undertaken by each enumerator. When the pin failed in modern navigation systems, I had to resort to the old trade of boundary and feature description to direct the driver who was going to pick me up from home this week.
PALI LEHOHLA | Polls capture noise, not structure: why SA must abandon municipal mythologies
Story audio is generated using AI As South Africa stumbles towards its municipal elections, the public square is flooded with a familiar, deafening cacophony. Opinion polls fluctuate weekly, political pundits dissect the latest coalition tea leaves, and party manifestos promise miraculous revivals of broken urban centres. We are treated to a breathless media narrative of political horse-racing, where every slight shift in voter intention is magnified as a monumental turning point.
South Africa’s deep rural poverty: five districts facing severe deprivation
Within the analytical framework of the Lehohla Ledger and the South African Multidimensional Poverty Index (SAMPI), poverty is evaluated not merely through flat monetary indicators, but through structural deprivations across key living standards, infrastructure integrity, and the cognitive arteries of health and education.
PALI LEHOHLA | The Jonah who ran from Zululand: how KwaZulu-Natal kept calling
In 1984, two years into my tenure in the Bophuthatswana government, I met a man by the name of Baby Ndlovu, who hailed from uMgungundlovu and worked in Ulundi. South Africa in conjunction with the homeland administrations were introducing the concept of population development. I made a presentation on the resolutions of the Bucharest Conference of 1974. The black participants were impressed by my intervention and Baby Ndlovu made a move and wanted to recruit me to Ulundi.
South Africa's deep rural poverty: five districts facing severe deprivation
Cape Times | October 12, 2026 WITHIN the analytical framework of the Lehohla Ledger and the South African Multidimensional Poverty Index (SAMPI), poverty is evaluated not merely through flat monetary indicators, but through structural deprivations across key living standards, infrastructure integrity, and the cognitive arteries of health and education.
IRMSA 2026: Why South Africa’s risk managers must confront systemic failure
As we gather for the 2026 Institute of Risk Management South Africa (IRMSA) Annual Conference under the inspiring theme, "A Community Awakened: Rising Together to Shape Today, for a Resilient and Sustainable Future," we are invited into a powerful narrative of agency and collective hope. Yet, true transformation demands that we first confront unvarnished empirical reality. For three decades, South Africa’s risk management community has operated within polite confines.
PALI LEHOHLA | Why South Africa’s ‘green shoots’ are a prelude to tyranny
Story audio is generated using AI According to Socrates in Plato’s Republic (Books VIII–IX), society begins to decline the moment its ruling class loses philosophical wisdom and allows wealth, private ambition or unchecked freedom to replace reason as the guiding principle. This moral shift triggers a predictable downward political degeneration — from aristocracy through timocracy, oligarchy and democracy, ultimately terminating in tyranny.
IRMSA 2026: Why South Africa's risk managers must confront systemic failure
Cape Times | October 05, 2026 AS WE gather for the 2026 Institute of Risk Management South Africa (IRMSA) Annual Conference under the inspiring theme, “A Community Awakened: Rising Together to Shape Today, for a Resilient and Sustainable Future,” we are invited into a powerful narrative of agency and collective hope. Yet, true transformation demands that we first confront unvarnished empirical reality. For three decades, South Africa's risk management community has operated within polite confines.
PALI LEHOHLA | Beyond the ballot: why South Africa needs a numerical conscience
In December 2023 and again in January 2024, I asked that we postpone the national election so that we give ourselves time to inspect our lived life of lies. As Socrates says, an unexamined life is not worth living. This call fell on death ears. The episodic and habitual lies reared their head this year with a spirited venture for a national dialogue. But as is the case with our education, we are rushing for an exam before we can examine our lives. With five weeks to go, an El Niño looms.
How Zimbabwe’s CAWEP programme is building climate resilience through water and energy
Two weeks ago, I was invited to the Zimbabwe Climate Adaptation Water and Energy Learning Session. I must say I was impressed. The intersection of community agency, ecosystem resilience, and localized data governance should form the bedrock of sustainable development across the African continent.
How Zimbabwe's CAWEP programme is building climate and energy resilience
Cape Times | September 28, 2026 TWO weeks ago, I was invited to the Zimbabwe Climate Adaptation Water and Energy Learning Session. I must say I was impressed. The intersection of community agency, ecosystem resilience, and localized data governance should form the bedrock of sustainable development across the African continent.
A treatise on minoritarian politics: the symptom of economic dysfunction
Conventional political science frequently interprets the rise of minoritarian governance, coalition fragmentation, and multi-party proliferation as hallmarks of a maturing, pluralistic democracy.
Lehohla model forecasts sharp ANC decline ahead of 2026 local elections
The Lehohla Ledger’s application of Fisher Bayes Gauss Krig (FBGK) Actuation Method is a fine grained longitudinal mesh of data that I created. This method moves beyond simple interpolation, integrating historical knowledge to create a predictive surface that evolves over time.
PALI LEHOHLA |Lehohla Ledger diagnostic exposes structural flaws in past scenario planning
The mirror we put before ourselves in 2006 through ‘The future we chose’ government scenarios is the Lehohla Ledger. It allows us to see as we look back today. The subsequent years and decades of action to that scenario represent what I title “The Arithmetic of Choice: A FBGK Critique and Advisory on South Africa Scenarios 2025”. To do this I have applied a diagnostic framework based on the Fisher-Bayes-Gauss-Kriging (FBGK) actuation method that I derived through the Lehohla Ledger diagnostic.
Lehohla model forecasts sharp ANC decline ahead of 2026 local elections
Cape Times | September 21, 2026 By applying this Bayesian updating process to every point on a dense spatial grid, repeated for multiple election cycles, the Lehohla Ledger constructs a fine longitudinal mesh. The final product is a dynamic, multi layered digital map where every pixel represents not just a single percentage, but a continuously evolving probability distribution.
Sasol’s value chain raises questions about who benefits from South Africa’s resources
The prevailing orthodoxy of modern corporate governance, famously articulated by Milton Friedman, posits that the "social responsibility of business is to increase its profits." This is the doctrine of unadulterated shareholder insanity, where the singular, legally enshrined fiduciary duty of a corporation is to maximize returns for its owners, irrespective of the social, spatial, or long term sovereign consequences.
PALI LEHOHLA | Turning Africa’s underdevelopment into hard data
Story audio is generated using AI In his seminal 1972 work, How Europe Underdeveloped Africa, Walter Rodney provided an enduring historical-materialist diagnosis: Africa’s contemporary poverty is not an original state of nature, nor a mere accident of history, but the direct product of active, centuries-long external extraction and structural subjugation.
Sasol's value chain raises questions about who benefits from South Africa's resources
Cape Times | September 14, 2026 THE prevailing orthodoxy of modern corporate governance, famously articulated by Milton Friedman, posits that the “social responsibility of business is to increase its profits.” This is the doctrine of unadulterated shareholder insanity, where the singular, legally enshrined fiduciary duty of a corporation is to maximize returns for its owners, irrespective of the social, spatial, or long term sovereign consequences.
Pali Lehohla | The 75-metre divide and November poll: A spatial audit of metropolitan collapse
As South Africa edges toward the local government elections this November, standard political commentary remains trapped in the superficial theatre of manifesto launches, party floor-crossing, and national polling averages. Yet, beneath these volatile electoral swings lies a deeper, unyielding reality: the physical spatial architecture of our cities.
Decoding the ballot box: Why conventional polling fails without the census mesh
Every electoral cycle brings a predictable ritual of disappointment. Pundits pore over national polling averages, political parties dispatch canvassers armed with generalised swing-state assumptions, and media outlets breathlessly track shifting percentage points that vanish the moment ballots are cast.
PALI LEHOHLA | The capital conundrum: why Friedman’s shareholder model is a dead end
Story audio is generated using AI For three decades, South Africa has been locked in a high-stakes struggle to define the relationship between capital and its developmental mandate. This struggle is not academic; it is the lived reality of millions excluded from the mainstream economy, trapped in what spatial economists call “Low-Low” municipalities — areas of persistent poverty and economic stagnation.
Decoding the ballot box: Why conventional polling fails without the census mesh
Cape Times | September 07, 2026 EVERY electoral cycle brings a predictable ritual of disappointment. Pundits pore over national polling averages, political parties dispatch canvassers armed with generalised swing-state assumptions, and media outlets breathlessly track shifting percentage points that vanish the moment ballots are cast.
Beyond political theatre: Why South Africa’s development demands data over election rituals
A nation that remains structurally disconnected from itself is doomed to mistake political theatre for substantive transformation. In South Africa’s socio-political calendar, dates such as November 4 are frequently heralded as monumental markers of democratic accountability and civic renewal.
From Coalbrook to Marikana: the human cost of South Africa’s extractive economy
Fourteen years after the Marikana killings, Dr Pali Lehohla links the tragedy to Coalbrook, migrant labour, mining inequality and the unresolved promise of post-apartheid transformation.
PALI LEHOHLA | From Coalbrook to Marikana: the agonising truth of mineral extraction
Story audio is generated using AI This article is an abridged lecture delivered at the University of Pretoria on August 20 2026 Before we open the ledgers of evidence, before we audit the spatial enumeration areas of the platinum belt, and before we examine the balance sheets of extractive mining houses, we must ground our diagnostic in the piercing wisdom of our ancestors: ke eo he khomareli’a kokotane, boko sa e-shoa le lenono.
From Coalbrook to Marikana: the human cost of South Africa's extractive economy
Cape Times | August 31, 2026 THIS is my address at the University of Pretoria, 20 August 2026 Before we open the Ledgers of evidence, before we audit the spatial enumeration areas of the platinum belt, and before we examine the balance sheets of extractive mining houses, we must ground our diagnostic in the piercing wisdom of our ancestors: “Ke eo he khomarelia kokotane, boko sa e-shoa le lenono. Ke kolia malla ho hlokomela ho re efela ele ‘nete ho re hlooho ke motlhotlo?
The pulse of extension 8B: a narrative of Orange Farm
The sun, a relentless entity over Orange Farm, is just beginning to cast its golden, dusty light when Extension 8B stirs. This is not the slow, quiet awakening of the suburban north, where alarm clocks are polite suggestions and coffee is brewed in silent kitchens. This is a visceral, communal resurrection.
PALI LEHOHLA | Moshoeshoe’s blueprint for a fractured world
A lecture on SeMoshoeshoe at Unisa, August 17, by Pali Lehohla Lesotho is my home, born, bred, moulded and taught; Ghana is my intellectual home where my profession was sharpened; South Africa is my home of practice; and Africa is my oyster. Africa belongs to Africans. The eternal maxim of Morena Moshoeshoe I resonates across our borders: Hohle ke Lesotho hohle — wherever an African stands, there lies Africa.
The grid and the covenant: how Silvertown redeemed the South African census
On Saturday Nobuthu Mpetsheni (left) sent me this picture where she attended a funeral in Silvertown. She is in Silvertown and in the background fifteen years on is a different picture. In 2011 Silvertown, a community in KwaZakhele which has its name after the shiny tin houses - very cold in winter and very hot in summer, refused to be counted in the 2011 Census. The community took us on as StatsSA and nearly collapsed the census. I had just enumerated the father of the nation in Qunu.
Pali Lehohla | The pulse of extension 8B: A narrative of Orange Farm
The sun, a relentless entity over Orange Farm, is just beginning to cast its golden, dusty light when Extension 8B stirs. This is not the slow, quiet awakening of the suburban north, where alarm clocks are polite suggestions and coffee is brewed in silent kitchens. This is a visceral, communal resurrection.
PALI LEHOHLA | The grid and the covenant: how Silvertown redeemed the South African census
On Saturday, Nobutho Mpetsheni sent me a picture showing her at a funeral in Silvertown. In her company is a would-be Census 2011 employee who was subsequently recruited for further training by StatsSA and is now a contract employee of the agency. Silvertown, a community in KwaZakhele, Gqeberha (then Port Elizabeth), named after the shiny tin houses ― freezing in winter and boiling in summer ― refused to be counted in the 2011 Census.
The pulse of extension 8B: a great narrative deep inside Orange Farm
Cape Times | August 17, 2026 THE sun, a relentless entity over Orange Farm, is just beginning to cast its golden, dusty light when Extension 8B stirs. This is not the slow, quiet awakening of the suburban north, where alarm clocks are polite suggestions and coffee is brewed in silent kitchens. This is a visceral, communal resurrection.
Metrics and governance: The realities of South African municipalities in the silly season
Cape Times | August 13, 2026 The IEC commissioned the HSRC to conduct a study on the health of South Africa’s democracy. The picture is as ugly. Only 36% of the population believe in our democracy today compared to 72% just fifteen or so years ago. The Lehohla Ledger pin points the collapse at a village, a suburb, a ward and a municipality - from whence you can constitute your own vision of your life and that of your neighbour. You can be an architect of statecraft and local governance.
PALI LEHOHLA | From spatial apartheid to breakdown of trust: how citizens lose (and regain) agency
Story audio is generated using AI When T-shirts and food parcels cease to turn society into John Gomomo’s voting cattle or Socrates’s currency and merchandise that merchant politicians trade in, raw sewage cannot garner votes. Recent Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) findings, co-sponsored by the Electoral Commission (IEC), indicate that public support for democracy has plummeted to a record low 36%.
Breaking the cycle of poverty in Winterveldt: a spatial analysis Original
REAL NUMBERS Pali Lehohla|Published 9 minutes ago Explore Winterveldt, a settlement that epitomises South Africa's spatial divide, and discover how innovative approaches can break the cycle of poverty that has persisted for decades. Image: Simphiwe Mbokazi / IOL For over four decades, Winterveldt—the sprawling settlement north of Pretoria—has stood as a living monument to South Africa’s spatial divide.
PALI LEHOHLA | Why South Africa’s big-picture economics keep failing local communities
For over 30 years, economic planners in Pretoria and Cape Town have used the In-Out method. In the first 15 years of democracy, mainly driven by clear scenario-building architecture, positive results were palpable as witnessed in Census 1996, 2001 and Community Survey 2006. The tail end of this trajectory could be further seen in census data of 2011. Since then, the Community Survey of 2016 and census of 2022 have returned not only stagnating outcomes but critical reversals in economic outcomes.
Breaking the cycle of poverty in Winterveldt: a spatial analysis
Cape Times | August 03, 2026 FOR OVER four decades, Winterveldt—the sprawling settlement north of Pretoria—has stood as a living monument to South Africa’s spatial divide. From its origins in Bophuthatswana as an informal periphery to its current integration into the City of Tshwane, economic planners have repeatedly tried and failed to lift Winterveldt out of systemic poverty.
Tragedy of Komati: the narrative of a ‘just’ transition rapidly unravelling
The small town of Komati in Mpumalanga has become the epicenter of a grand, high-stakes experiment: South Africa’s Just Energy Transition (JET). The decommissioning of the Komati Power Station in 2022 was heralded as a necessary, progressive step towards a low-carbon future. It was intended to be the blueprint – a pilot project demonstrating how a community dependent on coal could pivot towards sustainable, green economic activity without being sacrificed on the altar of climate action.
Local government elections put South Africa's rural development challenges under the spotlight Original
REAL NUMBERS Dr Pali Lehohla|Published 3 minutes ago As South Africa prepares for local government elections, new insights from the Lehohla Ledger highlight the long term impact of migration, unemployment and economic exclusion on rural communities. Image: File South Africa is preparing for local government elections, and it is time for a serious mirror to be placed before ourselves as a society.
PALI LEHOHLA | Komati’s ghost: the alarming metrics of South Africa’s ‘Just Transition’
Story audio is generated using AI The story of the Just Energy Transition (JET) is a stark reminder of how arrogance and uncaring state power can be even under democracy. South Africa bought a Trojan horse that no one wants to visit nor talk about today. But the evidence sits like a hump of a camel for everyone to see. The mad rush of blood to the brain as the South African government partook in the discussions in European metropoles to implement the JET has left Komati a ghost town.
Local government elections put SA's rural development challenges under the spotlight
Cape Times | July 27, 2026 SOUTH Africa is preparing for local government elections, and it is time for a serious mirror to be placed before ourselves as a society. The Lehohla Ledger stands ready to provide the 32 years of evidence from which society can seek truth in the numbers. Today, I electronically visited Njomebelwana, referenced locally as Nhlungwane or Mahlabathini.
South Africa's democratic divide exposed as economic exclusion deepens Original
REAL NUMBERS Dr Pali Lehohla|Published 14 minutes ago A new analysis argues that the decline of formal employment is closely linked to weakening democratic participation, revealing a growing divide between prosperous and struggling communities. Image: Ayanda Ndamane / Independent Newspapers Post apartheid South Africa has never experienced the level of tumult it has witnessed over the last fifteen years.
South Africa's democratic divide exposed as economic exclusion deepens
Cape Times | July 22, 2026 POST apartheid South Africa has never experienced the level of tumult it has witnessed over the last fifteen years. The hosting of the National Democratic Revolution summit is one in a series of reflective moments examining what has happened to the country. Unsurprisingly, everyone should be concerned. Through the Lehohla Ledger, I draw a comparison of democratic performance across Sandton, a mere 75 metres from Alexandra.
PALI LEHOHLA | From ‘voting cattle’ to true liberation: IEC mandate due for an update
Story audio is generated using AI To understand where we are, we must audit our journey from the mandate of 1994 against the reality captured by our census mesh. The narrative of the democratic era has been one of aggregate success — a growing economy, rising budget allocations, and the extension of basic services. But this aggregate view conceals a brutal spatial reality.
The toponymic scars of the Mesh – Sefikile, Pekinini Transkei, and the gory reminder of Marikana
To map the human geography of the South African platinum belt is to read a history written in blood, sweat, and displacement. If you look closely at the municipal registries of the Moses Kotane Local Municipality, you will find Sefikile near Mokgalwaneng. Shift your coordinates slightly towards the perimeters of Phokeng, and you run into the dense shack settlement known locally as Pekinini Transkei.
Masebudule: a case study of structural extraction in post-apartheid South Africa Original
REAL NUMBERS Dr Pali Lehohla|Published 6 minutes ago Explore the intricate socio-economic dynamics of Masebudule village, where decades of statistical analysis reveal the harsh realities of resource extraction and grant dependency in post-apartheid South Africa. Image: Supplied I write this with the forensic clarity that only four decades of statistical enumeration can yield. Over forty years, I have monitored the demographic and macroeconomic heartbeat of South Africa.
PALI LEHOHLA | The siphon that hollows out trillions mandates a systematic do-over
Story audio is generated using AI During my tenure as the statistician-general, young Michael Manamela, whom I had then recently promoted to head national accounts — which included the main GDP releases — repeatedly complained about the authenticity of the GDP reports by province. At the heart of the problem is the way national accounting attributes economic output to corporate headquarters rather than where the work actually happens.
Masebudule: a case study of structural extraction in post-apartheid South Africa
Cape Times | July 13, 2026 I WRITE this with the forensic clarity that only four decades of statistical enumeration can yield. Over forty years, I have monitored the demographic and macroeconomic heartbeat of South Africa.
Structural remediation re-alignment protocol: Transforming the sub-national accountability ecosystem from the Out-In
1. Introduction: The Fallacy of the Paper Turnaround The historical record of public sector interventions in developing economies has been consistently undermined by a fundamental error: the belief that institutional recovery can be achieved through top-down, paper-driven compliance exercises.
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