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Articles by Panashe Fundira
Betting with Mandatory Post-Mortem — LessWrong
"In the absence of an oracle, I would end up writing up praise for, and updating towards, your more wrong model, which is obviously not what we want." Perhaps I'm missing something, but I think that's exactly what we want. It leads to eventual consistency / improved estimates of odds, which is all we can look for without oracles or in the presence of noise. First, strength of priors will limit the size of the bettor's updates. Let's say we both used beta distributions, and had weak beliefs.
Bayesian examination
A few months ago, Olivier Bailleux, a Professor of computer science and reader of my book on Bayesianism, sent me an email. He suggested to apply some of the ideas of the book to examine students. He proposed Bayesian examination. I believe it to be a brilliant idea, which could have an important impact on how many people think. At least, I think that this is surely worth sharing here.
Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments — LessWrong
Mazes The usual method to solve a maze is some variant of babble-and-prune: try a path, if it seems to get closer to the exit then keep going, if it hits a dead end then go back and try another path. It's a black-box method that works reasonably well on most mazes. However, there are other methods.
87,000 Hours or: Thoughts on Home Ownership — LessWrong
Edited to add epistemic status and summary: The basic thesis of this post is that, for many reasons, the volatility (riskiness) of buying a house are significantly higher than generally believed. The considerations explored here are the result of discussions with a financial advisor and plugging various pieces of publicly available data about housing markets into adhoc models of long run performance.
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