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Articles by Patrick Barbe
Más allá de las pausas, se perfilan nuevas subidas de tipos
Añadir Estrategias de Inversión en Google La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (Fed), el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y el Banco de Japón (BoJ) hicieron lo que se esperaba la semana pasada y mantuvieron los tipos de interés sin cambios, optando por esperar hasta sus reuniones de diciembre antes de volver a subirlos, potencialmente.
Tras la subida de tipos de septiembre, el crecimiento sigue en riesgo
Añadir Estrategias de Inversión en Google La subida de tipos prevista se justifica por el hecho de que los precios energéticos han alcanzado los niveles estimados en el escenario adverso del BCE. La opinión del banco central es que unos precios de la energía demasiado elevados durante un periodo prolongado hacen inevitable un cierto grado de propagación indirecta de la inflación.
Patrick Barbe, Neuberger: “Creemos que el BCE debería enviar un mensaje «hawkish» para anunciar otra subida de tipos en septiembre”
Añadir Estrategias de Inversión en Google Prevemos que se produzca una pausa en la reunión del BCE de julio, ya que, desde la primera subida de tipos en junio, los precios de la energía y los datos de actividad no han variado mucho, manteniéndose cercanos al «escenario moderado del BCE», mientras que los datos de inflación hasta junio han resultado bastante inferiores a lo esperado.
El BCE prepara otra subida de tipos: Ormuz amenaza el pulso de la eurozona Original
Añadir Estrategias de Inversión en Google El principal impacto del conflicto iraní debería ser el riesgo de desaceleración del crecimiento, ya que el repunte de los precios de la energía se limita al petróleo. El deterioro de la confianza de los hogares ya está lastrando el gasto de los consumidores. Sin embargo, las últimas declaraciones de algunos miembros del BCE indican que no prevén una recesión.
“El BCE debe esperar a conocer los detalles de la solución en Irán antes de actuar” Original
La institución que preside Christine Lagarde definió este conflicto en su última reunión como «un evento de riesgo significativo» y estableció un conjunto de tres escenarios económicos —básico, adverso y grave— con el fin de orientar su política monetaria basándose en criterios claros.
Germany’s Game-Changing Election
The country’s politics are getting a boost of uncharacteristic urgency from coming Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with even the constitutional “debt brake” up for grabs. This week’s CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from guest contributors Patrick Barbe and Maximilian Korell. Turnout for Germany’s election a week ago was 82.5%, the highest since reunification.
Focus sur le métier de Managing Director de société de gestion
Découvrez le parcours, l’expérience et le métier de Responsable de la gestion obligataire dans une société de gestion. Café de la Bourse vous invite à plonger dans l’univers de la finance de marché en interrogeant les hommes et les femmes qui y travaillent au quotidien.
Un Pas à Droite?
Midway through a record-breaking year for elections, we have just been given another—and it is potentially among the most important. Four years ago, we greeted the arrival of the “Next Generation EU” funds as a key moment of solidarity for Europe—a package of pandemic-recovery measures that included, for the first time, fiscal transfers between European Union member states. Last week, the next stage of those measures was put in grave doubt.
An Ocean of Difference
‘Copy and paste’ your U.S. inflation outlook onto Europe and you may miss the opportunity in core European bonds. The senior leadership of Neuberger Berman’s fixed income team recently gathered in London for our annual summit. It was a great opportunity to catch up in person with portfolio management colleagues in our London, Paris, Hague and Milan offices, but also a good time to take the pulse of the European bond markets.
Réunion de la BCE du 26/10/2023 : à quoi s’attendre ?
La rumeur veut que la BCE surveille de près le prix du pétrole. Pourtant, c'est le taux de base (hors énergie) qui est le facteur clé. Comment cela s'explique-t-il ? Le risque d'une hausse des prix du pétrole est-il si important ? L'approche de la BCE en termes de politique monétaire repose sur l'évolution du taux d'inflation sous-jacente, c’est-à-dire hors alimentation et énergie.
The ECB's Trilemma
By Patrick Barbe & Ugo Lancioni Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads? Today's CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from guest contributors Patrick Barbe and Ugo Lancioni. We're used to hearing about the difficult job the U.S. Federal Reserve faces over the coming months. It wants to get on top of consumer price inflation of 8.6% without causing a recession or excessive job losses.
The ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads? Today’s CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from guest contributors Patrick Barbe and Ugo Lancioni. We’re used to hearing about the difficult job the U.S. Federal Reserve faces over the coming months. It wants to get on top of consumer price inflation of 8.6% without causing a recession or excessive job losses. So, spare a thought for the European Central Bank.
ECB: End Of An Era
By Patrick Barbe The central bank announces the end of its accommodative monetary policy. Protracted high inflation is a new major challenge for the European Central Bank, and its policy change is meant to ensure that the inflation rate returns to its 2% target over the medium term. European Inflation rose again in May, raising fears that the peak had not yet been reached and could remain undesirably elevated for some time.
CIO Weekly Perspectives: ECB Policy and Bunds Are Set to Move
Ahead of the key European Central Bank policy meeting on September 9, we offer our views on what will likely change, what may not, and what it could mean for the Bund yield. Today’s CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from guest contributor Patrick Barbe. With the U.S. Federal Reserve chair’s Jackson Hole commentary striking a tone that was slightly hawkish on tapering but slightly dovish on rates, attention now turns to this week’s European Central Bank policy meeting.
ECB Policy Review: Evolution, Not Revolution
The central bank surprises financial markets with its timing, but not its conclusion. The European Central Bank surprised the financial markets by completing, earlier than expected, its strategic monetary policy review a few days ago. The timing was a surprise but not the conclusion: The COVID-19 crisis has convinced ECB members that the 2% inflation target is not an efficient criterion with which to manage policy.
ECB Meeting: More Flexible but Still Dovish
Cognizant of risks, policymakers are likely to move slowly in tapering bond purchases. The current focus of the European bond market is the potential evolution of European Central Bank policy. ECB programs have been a key driver of the economy and financial markets over the past several years, and even contributed to the survival of the Eurozone in difficult periods like last year, when the ECB supported government public deficits by launching its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).
Perché è sbagliato essere pessimisti sulla zona euro
Il quadro attuale dell’Eurozona è molto più complesso di quello tratteggiato dalla sfiducia dei mercati e da alcuni degli indicatori principali. Per il momento, le economie nazionali stanno dimostrando una tenuta più che discreta. La fiducia delle famiglie rimane elevata, grazie alla creazione di nuovi posti di lavoro e all’aumento degli stipendi. Il vivace settore dei servizi può contare... Contenuto riservato agli abbonati.
Time To Rethink Euro Pessimism
By Patrick Barbe, Head of European Fixed Income Today’s CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from guest contributor Patrick Barbe. The eurozone has for some time faced a lot of economic, regulatory and political uncertainties and challenges. The European Central Bank has done much to improve monetary policy transmission in order to support the banking system and economic growth.
Tapering, Not Tightening
Why we don’t expect the ECB’s withdrawal of QE to throw euro bond markets off balance. Today's CIO Weekly Perspectives comes from guest contributors Patrick Barbe and Jon Jonsson, Senior Portfolio Managers in Investment Grade Fixed Income. At its most recent meeting, the European Central Bank confirmed that it will phase out its bond purchase program at the end of the year.
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