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Articles by Patrick Triglavcanin
Starmer’s Labour sets out to sustain Indo‑Pacific ties
Labour’s first month in office should reassure those wanting to see a United Kingdom remaining engaged in the Indo-Pacific – particularly in Australia given the future submarine ambitions via AUKUS. The change at 10 Downing St has already shown clear points of difference to the previous Conservative approach to foreign policy, but the overarching strategic, economic and normative rationale remains the same.
How could the UK augment its nuclear forces? – Big Ask
The use of nuclear weapons by an adversary is unfortunately no longer a distant fantasy but a real consideration for British defence and foreign policy officials. Russian nuclear rhetoric is becoming increasingly loose, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to expand and modernise its nuclear arsenal.
AUKUS is a Trump-style deal
Donald Trump’s recent outburst about lax European defence efforts once again made headlines. Trump went further than earlier suggestions he would pull the United States out of NATO, insisting that he would actively “” Russian action against certain NATO allies. Trump is clearly not a fan of those he deems not to be pulling their weight, and NATO’s 2% spending target provides an easy litmus test for him to apply. Not spending 2%? For Trump, it is simple: you are a “delinquent”.
9DASHLINE — Why the Philippines and Indonesia have warmed to AUKUS
One of the main challenges facing AUKUS and its members is not in the realm of the military or science and technology but rather diplomacy: managing non-member countries’ perspectives and genuine concerns about the group. This task is particularly pertinent to Southeast Asia, a region that will be affected greatly by the transformation of military capabilities AUKUS promises to facilitate — notably Australia’s acquisition of next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs).
Don’t conflate the Quad and Malabar
Exercise Malabar is underway again, and for the first time being conducted off the coast of Australia. This year, the Indo-Pacific military drills will include the navies of Australia, India, Japan and the United States – the nations that comprise the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – but, officially, the exercise is a separate endeavour from the group, and should continue to be viewed as such.
I Paesi dell’Europa centrale e orientale non sono più entusiasti degli accordi con la Cina
L’interesse per l’Iniziativa CEE-Cina sta diminuendo tra i suoi membri dell’Europa centrale e orientale, e la colpa è in gran parte dei minimi ritorni economici e della politica estera della Cina, scrive Patrick Triglavcanin. Patrick Triglavcanin è assistente di ricerca senior presso il Council on Geostrategy. L’iniziativa “Cooperazione tra la Cina e i Paesi dell’Europa centrale e orientale” (Iniziativa CEE-Cina, o “14+1”) è stata lanciata nel 2012 con grande clamore e promesse.
No Albo at NATO, no worries
On 11-12 July, Lithuania will host the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s summit for 2023 in Vilnius. The leaders of the “Asia-Pacific 4”, comprising Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, will be invited again after attending last year’s summit in Madrid. However, it seems that this time Australia will not send ministerial representation, with neither Prime Minister Anthony Albanese nor Foreign Minister Penny Wong to attend. There is allegedly dismay in Brussels.
AUKUS binds Britain to Australia and a free and open Indo-Pacific
It’s been a big day for Australia–UK relations. Sandwiched between the release of the ‘refresh’ of the integrated review in London and the AUKUS submarine announcement in San Diego, a bilateral partnership growing in warmth and strategic significance is evident, and indeed flourishing. That the two developments take place in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific chimes with the British conception of a merging between the two geostrategic areas.
The AUKUS partnership accelerates
The United Kingdom has a new prime minister. This means that since AUKUS – a technology sharing partnership between the UK, the United States (US) and Australia – was announced in September last year, there will have been a change of leadership in both the UK and Australia. This might invite speculation as to whether the agreement is sustainable and will survive multiple administrations.
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