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Articles by Payce Madden
Figure of the week: Perceptions of the AfCFTA among small enterprises in Nigeria
On January 1, trading under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) officially commenced after years of planning and negotiations, and after facing delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Figure of the week: Africa’s visa openness continues to improve
The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially reduced cross-border travel as countries place restrictions on movement to manage the health crisis. However, the costs of these restrictions are clear, with impacts on the global economy, supply chains, and industries such as tourism and transit.
Africa in the news: Elections in Ghana, US relations with Somalia and Morocco, and trade in East Africa
Incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo declared winner of Ghanaian elections On Wednesday, December 9, Ghana’s incumbent president Nana Akufo-Addo won a second term in office, winning 51.59 percent of the vote in general elections that took place on Monday. Opposition leader and former president, John Mahama, who has twice before lost to Akufo-Addo, won 47.36 percent of the vote.
Figure of the week: Socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda
Although most African countries have, to date, been largely successful in fighting the spread of COVID-19, with far fewer reported cases and deaths from the disease than Europe, Asia, or the Americas, the pandemic has still had substantial socioeconomic impacts on African citizens. Policy measures to limit the spread of the disease, such as travel restrictions, lockdowns, and school closures—while both necessary and effective at limiting health impacts—have slowed economic activity worldwide.
Africa in the news: Fighting in Ethiopia, end of cease-fire in Western Sahara, and debt relief updates
Fighting continues in Ethiopia’s Tigray region Fighting continued in Ethiopia’s Tigray region this week, in the continuation of a conflict that began earlier this month. On Sunday, November 15, the leader of the Tigray region, Debretsion Gebremichael, confirmed that his forces had fired rockets at the airport in Eritrean capital Asmara, a major escalation that internationalizes the war.
Figure of the week: Africa’s used vehicle market and the environment
Between 2015 and 2018, the European Union, Japan, and the United States exported 14 million used vehicles worldwide—40 percent of which went to African countries. The low prices of these vehicles create high demand for them in Africa and other developing regions, but there is a trade-off to the low cost: They are often poor quality and would fail roadworthiness tests in exporting countries. As a result, these vehicles contribute to air pollution and hinder efforts to combat climate change.
Africa in the news: Unrest in Ethiopia, contentious elections results in Tanzania and Côte d’Ivoire, and a new UK-Kenya trade deal
Ethiopian prime minister orders military campaign against Tigray region On Wednesday, November 3, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military operation against the government of the country’s northern Tigray region, after accusing the Tigrayan ruling party of attacking a defense post and attempting to steal military equipment. In addition to sending troops to the region, the federal government shut down some lines of communications—including telephone and internet services in Tigray.
Urban economic growth in Africa: Analyzing constraints to agglomeration
Many of the major cities in developing countries, especially in Africa, are failing to reap the economic benefits of urbanization. These cities are not able to drive structural transformation, boost growth, create jobs in tradeable industries, and contribute to national economic growth compared with cities in other countries, such as those in China or most developed countries.
Figure of the week: Flood risk and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, extreme poverty had been steadily declining worldwide for more than two decades. Now, due to the health and economic effects of the pandemic, the world faces a severe setback to this progress. Pandemic-related shocks to lives and livelihoods are hitting the already poor and vulnerable hard, as well as pushing millions of new people into poverty.
Africa in the news: Guinea, Sudan, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire updates
Guinea holds presidential election On Sunday, October 18, Guinea held its presidential election contested between 82-year-old incumbent President Alpha Condé and opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo. Tensions were already on the rise in the lead up to the election as, earlier this year, the country amended its constitution, a move that allowed for Condé, who has been in power since 2010, to run for a third term. The country saw violent protests in the wake of that change.
Figures of the week: Taxation in Africa over the last century
Last week, the African Economic History Network published “The Fiscal State in Africa: Evidence from a century of growth,” a working paper in which the authors examine African countries’ ability to raise revenues from taxes and other sources in order to support the provision of public services and development.
Africa in the news: Mali’s transitional government, Somalia’s debt relief, and Togo’s first female prime minister
Mali appoints transitional government Earlier this week, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union announced that they would lift sanctions—including trade and travel blockades—on Mali as the country announced its plans for a transitional government led by civilians.
Figures of the week: Financial inclusion of farmers in Africa
More than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa works in the agriculture sector, but most farmers in the region still do not have access to formal financial services. Limited access to these services makes it more difficult for farmers to take advantage of business opportunities, invest and save for the future, and insure against risks.
Africa in the news: Zambia’s debt, Kenya’s parliament and trade, and politics in the Horn of Africa
Zambia asks to defer its debt payments On Tuesday, September 22, Zambia’s government announced that it was running out of cash to service its debt, and asked holders of its three eurobonds, worth a total of $3 billion, to defer interest payments worth almost $120 million until April. The deferment makes Zambia the first African country to default on its debt since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Figure of the week: Challenges facing economic stimulus in sub-Saharan Africa
The COVID-19 pandemic has stopped or reversed years of progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), finds the 2020 Goalkeepers Report, published this month by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Importantly, the report argues that the pandemic has not been just a health crisis: It has had major negative effects on economies, education, food security, and health services not directly related to COVID-19, such as treatment for HIV/AIDS and support for family planning.
Africa in the news: Sudan peace deal, Ethiopia elections, and Eastern and Southern Africa updates
Sudan signs peace deal with Darfur rebel groups On Monday, August 31, Sudan’s government and the Sudan Revolutionary Front, a major coalition of rebel groups, agreed to a peace deal to end 17 years of conflict in Darfur. The peace agreement seeks to end fighting in Darfur, where more than 300,000 people have been killed and 2.7 million displaced since 2003, and in Sudan’s southern regions of South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, where thousands more have died in fighting since 2011.
Figure of the week: The AfCFTA’s effects on trade and wages in Africa
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a major opportunity for African countries to reduce poverty, boost incomes, accelerate growth, attract foreign direct investment, and diversify exports.
Digital Skills And The Future Of Work In Africa
Although sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an increase in education and literacy rates, the quality of the education remains below par: Sub-Saharan Africa has, for example, the lowest literacy rate of any world region. Similarly, 84 percent of children and adolescents have not achieved the minimum proficiency for mathematics; for context, the global average is 56 percent.
Figures of the week: Digital skills and the future of work in Africa
Although sub-Saharan Africa has experienced an increase in education and literacy rates, the quality of the education remains below par: Sub-Saharan Africa has, for example, the lowest literacy rate of any world region. Similarly, 84 percent of children and adolescents have not achieved the minimum proficiency for mathematics; for context, the global average is 56 percent.
Africa in the news: African women vie for leadership positions; Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Tanzania updates
African women vie for leadership positions Two African women, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Amina Mohamed, have been announced as candidates for director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a position that has never been held by either a woman or an African. Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria’s first female finance minister and first female foreign affairs minister, had a 25-year career at the World Bank and served as its managing director of operations from 2007-2011.
Figures of the week: Improvement in tax transparency in Africa
On June 25, 2020, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes released their annual report on tax transparency in Africa, “Tax Transparency in Africa 2020: Africa Initiative Progress Report 2019.” The report provides comparable statistics on tax transparency and the exchange of tax information between countries to help African countries better tackle tax evasion.
Africa in the news: COVID-19, debt relief, and political updates
COVID-19 update While COVID-19 continues to spread in some areas of Africa, other countries look to open up. As of this writing, Africa has registered over 275,000 cases and over 7,00 deaths, though testing remains relatively low.
Figures of the week: Effects of COVID-19 on Ethiopian firms
To get a closer look at the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on African businesses, on June 6, the World Bank published a policy brief analyzing the results of a telephone survey examining the impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopian firms based in the country’s capital, Addis Ababa.
Africa in the news: Kenyan trade, Sudan, and COVID-19 updates
US-Kenya bilateral trade agreement moves forward In late May, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released its objectives for initial negotiations of the U.S.-Kenya bilateral trade agreement first announced earlier this year after a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Figures of the week: Regional integration in Africa
While the recently announced postponement of trading under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) due to the COVID-19 pandemic will hinder the continent’s short-term progress toward regional integration, particularly trade integration, authorities look to continue the integration agenda. Last week, the African Union Commission, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, and the African Development Bank released the second edition of the Africa Regional Integration Index Report.
Figures of the week: Africa’s fiscal response to COVID-19
In April, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa published “COVID-19 in Africa: Protecting Lives and Economies,” which analyzes the potential human and economic cost of the pandemic in Africa, and argues that strong partnerships—both regional and international—will be needed to reduce the impact of the crisis.
Africa in the news: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, COVID-19, and AfCFTA updates
Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan political updates Ethiopia-Eritrea relations continue to thaw, as on Sunday, May 3, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki, Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, and Presidential Advisor Yemane Ghebreab, visited Ethiopia, where they were received by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. During the two-day diplomatic visit, the leaders discussed bilateral cooperation and regional issues affecting both states, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the desert locust infestation.
Africa in the news: COVID-19, Côte d’Ivoire, and Safaricom updates
African governments take varying approaches to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 As of this writing, Africa has registered over 39,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,600 deaths, with most cases concentrated in the north of the continent as well as in South Africa. African countries have enacted various forms of lockdowns, external and internal border closures, and curfews to prevent the spread of the virus.
Africa in the news: South Africa looks to open up; COVID-19 complicates food security, malaria response
South Africa announces stimulus plan and a pathway for opening up As of this writing, the African continent has registered over 27,800 COVID-19 cases, with over 1,300 confirmed deaths, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Countries around the continent continue to instate various forms of social distancing restrictions: For example, in Nigeria, in response to the continued spread of the virus, governors have instated a two-week ban on interstate travel.
Figures of the week: The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Africa
Last week, the World Bank released its biannual Africa’s Pulse report, which discusses the macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. This edition focuses on the major challenges that COVID-19 presents to African economies. The report projects that, as a result of the pandemic, economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa will decline from 2.4 percent in 2019 to between -2.1 percent and -5.1 percent in 2020, depending on the success of measures taken to mitigate the pandemic’s effects.
Africa in the news: COVID-19 impacts African economies and daily lives; clashes in the Sahel
African governments begin borrowing from IMF, World Bank to soften hit from COVID-19 This week, several countries and multilateral organizations announced additional measures to combat the economic fallout from COVID-19 in Africa. Among the actions taken by countries, Uganda’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 8 percent and directed commercial banks to suspend dividends and bonuses for 90 days.
Africa in the news: Impacts of COVID-19 on African economies and elections updates
Economic challenges in South Africa, Tanzania, Angola, and Zambia Last Friday, March 27, credit ratings agency Moody’s Investment Services downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to “junk” status. The rating, which continues to have a negative outlook, was moved down from “Baa3” to “Ba1,” one level below investment grade; South Africa now has no investment-grade sovereign credit rating from any major ratings agency for the first time since 1994.
Figures of the week: Perceptions of COVID-19 in South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria
On March 17, GeoPoll released the results of their survey deployed to determine perceptions and understanding of COVID-19 in South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria. South Africa currently has the highest number of diagnosed cases of the virus of any African country, and, while the number of diagnosed cases is currently low in Nigeria and Kenya, both countries are at risk of the virus rapidly spreading through their large populations.
Illicit financial flows in Africa
Drivers, destinations, and policy options By Landry Signé, Mariama Sow, and Payce Madden Since 1980, an estimated $1.3 trillion has left sub-Saharan Africa in the form of illicit financial flows (per Global Financial Integrity methodology), posing a central challenge to development financing.
AGI launches Foresight Africa in Kampala, Kigali, and Dakar
Each year, the Brookings Africa Growth Initiative (AGI) uses the occasion of the New Year to identify key issues, events, and trends likely to shape affairs in African countries in the coming months and years. Over the years, Foresight Africa has become one of Brookings’ highest-profile annual reports, with some of the Institution’s highest readership and policy uptake. Foresight Africa 2020 a special edition focusing on the top priorities for the continent over the next decade: 2020-2030.
A social distancing reading list from Brookings Global Economy and Development
During this unusual time of flexible schedules and more time at home, many of us may have increased opportunities for long-form reading. Below, the scholars and staff from the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings offer their recommendations for books to read during this time.
Africa in the news: The Uganda-EU deal, politics, airlines, and COVID-19 updates
Uganda and the European Union strengthen trade and business relationship Earlier this month, Uganda hosted a delegation from the European Union (EU) for the first-ever Uganda-Europe Business Forum.
Strategies for coping with the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa
The World Health Organization (WHO)’s March 11 recognition of COVID-19 as a global pandemic has removed any doubt about the threat that the virus poses to every country in the world. The virus has now been detected in 152 countries, with more than 180,000 infected and more than 7,000 killed. Though Africa remains one of the regions with the fewest cases, the number of countries affected has increased over the past week.
Figures of the week: Africa’s preparedness for the Fourth Industrial Revolution
At the beginning of 2020, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings launched its annual Foresight Africa publication. This year’s report, a special edition, highlights the accomplishments of past years and focuses on six priorities for the next decade.
Illicit financial flows in Africa: Drivers, destinations, and policy options
Abstract Since 1980, an estimated $1.3 trillion has left sub-Saharan Africa in the form of illicit financial flows (per Global Financial Integrity methodology), posing a central challenge to development financing. In this paper, we provide an up-to-date examination of illicit financial flows from Africa from 1980 to 2018, assess the drivers and destinations of illicit outflows, and examine policy options to reduce them.
New trends in illicit financial flows from Africa
The January revelations around illicit financial gains by Isabel dos Santos, Africa’s richest woman and daughter of former Angolan president Edoardo dos Santos, have once again brought the topic of illicit financial flows to the forefront of the conversation on domestic resource mobilization in Africa.
Figures of the week: Service delivery in Africa’s urban areas
At the beginning of 2020, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings launched its annual Foresight Africa publication. This year’s special edition highlights the accomplishments of past years and strategies for the upcoming decade, 2020-2030. The third chapter, Leveraging demographic trends for economic transformation: Job creation, skills development, and urbanization policies, discusses the mismatch between demographic trends and job creation on the continent.
Figure of the week: Climate change and low-elevation coastal zones in Africa
On January 8, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings released a special edition of its annual Foresight Africa publication. The report highlights the continent’s accomplishments in past years and focuses on six priorities for the upcoming decade, 2020-2030.
Africa in the news: Nagy visits Africa, locust outbreak threatens East Africa, and Burundi update
Security and youth top agenda during US Assistant Secretary of State Nagy’s visit to Africa On January 15, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy headed to Africa for a six-nation tour that included stops in the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Sudan, and Somalia.
Figure of the week: Patent policies and their effects on African innovation
Last week, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings launched its annual Foresight Africa publication. This year’s special edition highlights the accomplishments of past years and strategies for the upcoming decade, 2020-2030. The sixth chapter, Bolstering Africa’s role in the global economy: The importance of regional integration, explores the new commercial and diplomatic opportunities Africa is creating as it empowers itself from within.
Africa in the news: WAEMU’s eco implementation, Sahel security update, and Foresight Africa launch
West African countries rename CFA franc “eco” and begin currency reform Earlier this month, the countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) took major steps forward in the implementation of its shared currency, the eco. In late December 2019, WAEMU agreed with France to rename the CFA franc currency the eco and to reduce the currency’s ties to France.
Figure of the week: Funding Africa’s power sector
In September 2019, the World Bank released a report, “Rethinking Power Sector Reform in the Developing World,” evaluating the successes and challenges of power sector reform in developing countries. The report looks at adoption of the “Washington Consensus” of power sector reform, which emphasized the restructuring of utilities, creation of regulating bodies, participation of the private sector, and establishment of competitive power markets.
The Africa Growth Initiative’s top 5 figures of 2019
Each week, the Brookings Africa Growth Initiative highlights a “figure of the week,” in which we share a significant or interesting figure explaining recent developments on the continent. The post highlights an interesting chart, table, or graph from recently published reports that explore important statistics or policy developments. In our final “figure of the week” for 2019, we revisit the most-read posts of the year. 1.
Figure of the week: Progress toward reliable energy access in Africa
On December 5, 2019, Afrobarometer released a report on Africa’s progress toward reliable energy access. The report uses findings from national surveys in 34 African countries to analyze gaps in energy access, grid reliability, and government performance. As Figure 1 shows, on average, 42 percent of households in the 34 African countries surveyed are not connected to an electric grid.
Africa in the news: Namibia, Guinea-Bissau, Sudan, and Nigeria updates
Namibia reelects President Geingob while Guinea-Bissau’s elections will go to a run-off On Saturday, November 30, Namibia’s electoral commission announced that incumbent President Hage Geingob won reelection with 56.3 percent of the vote. This will be Geingob’s second and final term, as the position is term limited. Though Geingob came away with a win, his support took a hit: He had won the 2014 election with 87 percent of the vote.
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