Football Research Asst | 33rd Team Alum | UMass Dual Masters | Queens University of Charlotte
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Articles by Peter Engler
Study: Who Have Been the Best Quarterbacks of the Past Three Seasons?
Just who exactly owns the title of the best quarterback in the NFL is always a hotly debated topic. The debate usually consists of the following formula: Subjectivity + Objectivity + Bias = Result The portion of weight that each section receives is entirely up to the individual that is fighting in their player’s corner. However, let’s focus on the objectivity part of the debate alone, hence removing all subjectivity and bias.
The State of NFL Free Agency: Part 3
Study by Jamie Kelly Back in Part 1 of this series, we ran over the rationale for this study of high-profile NFL Free Agent transactions between 2015-2019, the methodology that was used, and presented the results for Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End. In Part 2, we dug into the Offensive and Defensive Lines, and now in Part 3, we’ll dive into LBs and DBs. Linebackers (Off Ball) Overview From a college perspective, this LB group comes from two distinct poles.
Marty Mornhinweg on the Browns' Baker Mayfield Predicament
About three months ago, Baker Mayfield requested a trade from the Cleveland Browns when the organization made it apparent that they were pursuing Deshaun Watson. The former 2018 first-overall draft choice has not lived up to expectations during his time in Ohio, and the Browns have, evidently, grown impatient. In Mayfield’s four-year career, he has yet to break into the top 10 for passing yards or touchdowns in a given season.
2023 NFL Draft Watch List: Tiering the Best College Defensive Linemen
The conclusion of the 2022 NFL Draft means that teams and fans alike can start looking forward to next year’s crop of players. While it is far too early to have conclusive opinions on where each player will rank due to a full season of games and the player development ahead of us, this tier ranking previews how these players go into the season ranked against their position group. These tiers are subject to change but give a quick outlook on the expectations of these players.
What Happened to Every No. 1 QB Recruit Since 2000?
While you try to project the potential of a QB in his early years, the harsh reality is that a lot of these young players do not pan out for one reason or another. Some do manage to be long-term starters, some see limited games in their career, and some of these recruits never saw the field at all in the NFL. Let’s take a look at each of the top QB recruits dating back to 2000 to see how successful their careers ended up being.
Grading Every Jacksonville Jaguars Position Group Going into 2022
The Jacksonville Jaguars headlined much early discussion during the 2021 season. They had a new coach in Urban Meyer and one of the best quarterback prospects in the past decade. However, distractions and issues came, followed by the firing of Urban Meyer. In 2022, Doug Pedersen takes over after a year off and inherits a team that spent big in free agency. The Jaguars front office bolstered their offense to help out Lawrence and a lot of eyes will be on the Jaguars in 2022.
The Impact of Close Games on Every Team's Record in 2021
If you ask any Ravens fan what it was like watching the team play week-in and week-out in 2021, they’ll tell you how many years were taken off their life. In that season alone, the Ravens played 11 games that were either decided by three points or less or overtime, which is the most out of the 320 team seasons in the past 10 years and is 2.5 times more than average (25% since 2012; around 4 games per season). The Ravens’ first half of 2021 was promising with an 8-3 start.
Which Colleges Are Best at Developing Low-Star Recruits Into NFL Prospects?
While conversations about college football recruiting typically revolve around which 5-star prospects will play where, few schools are truly able to compete with the likes of Alabama, Ohio State and Texas A&M for the nation’s top prospects on a yearly basis. Other programs that may have smaller recruiting budgets or less clout are forced to focus their efforts on finding lesser talents who can be developed into ideal program fits.
The State of NFL Free Agency: Part 1
Study by Jamie Kelly The start of a new league year is a time we all get excited for. While mostly ceremonious for operators within the NFL walls, for most of us it signals the dawn of NFL free agency, a time when vast sums of money will be spent on star players to improve our favorite teams. We get bought in to the movements of players: which airport are they at? Have they arrived at the team facility? Is this visit their final pitch meeting?
Are Explosive Plays Worth More Than the Yards they Create?
There’s a conundrum at play in football. On one side, coaches such as Dan Quinn and Doug Pederson swear by explosive plays as a key goal. On the other hand, offenses that pick up lots of yards will naturally have more chunk plays. So, is picking up 15 yards on one pass really more valuable than several smaller completions for the same distance?
How the Seahawks Have Re-Committed to Ground and Pound
It’s no secret that Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll professes an unyielding commitment to running early and running often, eschewing a primarily aerial-focused offense even with a potential Hall of Fame quarterback at the helm. Now, with either Mile High import Drew Lock or former backup Geno Smith the top signal-caller in Seattle, Carroll’s focus on the ground game has gained increased significance.
Three Head Coaches Facing the Most Pressure in 2022
With the 2022 NFL schedule being out, the realness of regular season games soon being played has set in. Schedules are set, and the predictions are plenty. Unfortunately, every year multiple NFL head coaches fall victim to the immense job pressure that all coaches face leading their teams. The reality of the National Football League is that all 32 teams cannot win, and the cycle of head coaches will continue turning over.
Did Jaire Alexander Really Reset the CB Market?
Jaire Alexander’s 4-year, $84 million extension will make him the highest paid cornerback in the history of the NFL in terms of APY. Even so, I do not believe he got what he should have given the current landscape of the cornerback market. Earlier this offseason, Denzel Ward signed a $100.5 million contract, topping Jalen Ramsey as the highest paid cornerback in the league. Ward and Alexander are the only two cornerbacks in the league who are under contracts for $20 million or more APY.
Statistical Analysis: Which Rookie Wide Receivers are Most Likely to Excel?
The 2022 NFL Draft saw several records broken, but the overwhelming story was the movement and investment at the wide receiver position. A record six WRs were selected in the first 20 selections, not to mention the A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown trades, and that trend continued throughout all three days. Eleven more receivers landed on Day 2 before another eleven on Day 3, altogether amounting to 28 players hoping to make the early impact of last year’s Ja’Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown.
5 Players Who Will Make Their First Pro Bowl in 2022
With the start of a new season fast approaching, there will be many players who have their “breakout” season and rise to prominence within the league. There are also a lot of new faces in new places that will allow many to show discernible improvement. Here we take a look at the 5 players who could make their first Pro Bowl in 2022.
Remaining Free Agents Who Will Impact the 2022 Playoffs
It seems as if there are more high-quality free agents who remain available post-draft this year than any other. Former Pro-Bowlers, No. 1 overall picks, Super Bowl champions, defensive rookies of the year, and the current NFLPA president remain unsigned to this point in May. These players could wind up contributing significantly to the history of the NFL and who will be left standing in late January and early February for Super Bowl LVII.
5 Players Who Did Not Have an Impact In 2021 But Will In 2022
Every year we see players have seasons that were unexpected or surprising. We also see players that did not contribute the year prior who do in the current year. This could be due to injury, production, scheme change, team make-up, depth chart, etc. Here are 5 players who could have a much bigger impact in 2022 than they did in ‘21.
Why the Fifth-Year Option is More and More Rare
The early results on the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft are in, and it’s the latest note in an intriguing trend. With the deadline for teams to exercise the fifth-year option on first-round picks passing, we now have information on which players were deemed worthy for an additional fully guaranteed year. In all, 19 players had their option exercised, from first overall pick Kyler Murray to Washington DE Montez Sweat. This number itself isn’t that unusual.
NFL Salary Cap Explained
What is the Salary Cap? The salary cap is an agreement between the NFL and its players placing a limit on the amount of money a team can spend on player contracts (including the player’s base salary and bonuses (such as roster bonuses, workout bonuses, operation bonuses, signing bonuses, and the like). Unlike some other professional sports leagues, such as the NBA, the NFL uses a hard cap, meaning no team is allowed to exceed the cap for any reason.
Charles Davis and Jeff Saturday on What It's Like To Be an Undrafted Free Agent
Undrafted free agency, although without the glitz and glamor of draft weekend, is still an irreplaceable source of NFL talent and a vital piece of the NFL’s induction process. Undrafted free agents continue to impact the game, too. James Robinson is the NFL’s most recent example of an undrafted free agent springing into an impact role. Robinson broke the NFL record for most scrimmage yards by a rookie undrafted free agent just two season ago.
Greg Cosell's Top 5 NFL Draft Fits
Now that the NFL Draft has concluded and teams have placed their figurative bets on which players will be best for them, The 33rd Team took the opportunity to go over some of the best player and team fits with Greg Cosell in our most recent Wednesday Huddle. Cosell is an NFL analyst and senior producer for NFL Films and has been working at NFL films for close to 40 years. Over that time, he has broken down thousands of players and contributed his knowledge to a number of shows.
How Tyrann Mathieu Fits in With the New Orleans Saints Defense
When a player the caliber of Tyrann Mathieu signs with a defense as good as the New Orleans Saints, it’s not just that the rich have gotten richer. We’re dangerously into “embarrassment of riches” territory. “Besides being a playmaker and having an uncanny nature for being around the football,” Coach John Pagano said, “Mathieu gives you that veteran leadership you’re always looking for.
Rookies Replacing Stars — Is 2022 Draft a Litmus Test for Wide Receiver Trend?
While the 2022 Draft class may not have been as strong as its predecessor, the depth and quality of this year’s wide receiver class was reflected by the speed with which they flew off their board. Six went in round one and 17 were selected within the first three rounds.
One UDFA Likely to Make Every NFL Team
After the excitement of the draft has dialed down, rosters continue to be filled out with veterans and rookies alike. There are many talented players that did not get selected in the draft, which leaves the UDFA pool filled with names that could make roster impacts. In the 2021 NFL draft, a larger number of UDFAs were on NFL rosters compared to those drafted in any other specific round.
An Early Look at the Top 2023 NFL Draft Prospects
With the 2022 NFL Draft wrapped up and undrafted free agency already underway, some fans are already turning their attention to the next set of candidates eligible for induction into the NFL. For NFL teams, evaluations of 2023 draft prospects have been underway for months. Here we capture a group of players who have the potential to hear their name called next year. You may see some overlap or familiar names in our recent Way Too Early 2023 Mock Draft Projection.
2022 NFL Draft Undrafted Free Agents Tracker
More NFL players join the league as Undrafted Free Agents (UDFA) than are drafted in any round. With that in mind, our 2022 NFL Draft Undrafted Free Agents Tracker is not just tracking players joining the end of rosters to be cut later. No, in fact, the players signed after the draft on this UDFA Tracker have a real chance to be core members of their respective teams down the road. Sometimes they will contribute early on special teams before carving out a bigger role.
Lions Should Take Ahmad Gardner No. 2 in the 2022 NFL Draft
The Detroit Lions sit with the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft with major holes across their roster. With the perception that Jacksonville takes an EDGE No. 1 overall, the Lions will be left with some top players at a multitude of positions, including Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner.
Draft Day Trades We Would Like To See
Each year, the NFL and their fans approach the draft with intrigue of the unknown and the potential for excitement. In NFL buildings, as the finishing touches are getting placed on the stacks and the draft board, calls with teams for potential trade partners ramp up. Some are done prior to the draft, some are agreed on in principle, some are contingent on a player falling and some are spur of the moment.
Why Do Players Go Undrafted?
A total of 262 selections will be made in the 2022 NFL Draft. That does not mean it’s the end of the journey for the players that go undrafted. Each year, roughly 200 or more undrafted players join an NFL team. At the end of the draft, having spoken with the prospects prior, the players and teams make a dash to sign those players that go undrafted for a multitude of reasons. The reasons for a player going undrafted can be different for everyone.
The 33rd Team's 3-Round Mock Draft
Although everybody and their mother releases mock drafts in the lead-up to the NFL Draft, there’s a key problem with the vast majority of them: they’re one- or two-person affairs. While it may be the easiest way to create a mock, it’s fundamentally at odds with how the draft functions — 32 different teams with 32 different boards. The Process With this 3-round mock draft, The 33rd Team enlisted 21 different members who have each been scouting draft prospects for several months.
10 Future Franchise Players Who Will Be Drafted Outside Round 1
Year after year, the draft cycle focuses on projected first-round picks, many of whom end up disappointing. Going back only six years to the 2016 NFL Draft, a full six players drafted in the first round are already out of the league. That’s almost one out of every five players. However, 2016 was also the draft that saw an entire starting lineup picked after the first round.
Real Gold or Fool's Gold? Assessing the Top 10 NFL Draft Risers
From the end of the college season through the various all-star games, combine, and pro days, there is much more information on each player for teams to look into. In every NFL draft, there are numerous prospects who win the draft process, as they dramatically improve their stock thanks to their athletic testing and interviews. The 2022 NFL is no exception, as we have highlighted 10 prospects that have increased their draft position thanks to their performance after the season.
Tape Talk: Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson
Aidan Hutchinson is a defensive end from Michigan and is universally regarded as one of the top players in the 2022 NFL Draft. The EDGE player was a Heisman Award Finalist. Hutchinson set the Michigan single-season sack record at 14 and helped lead the team to the College Football playoff. READ MORE: Domo’s Top 10 Edge Rushers and NFL Player Comparisons John Pagano broke down Hutchinson’s tape for The 33rd Team.
5 Teams Poised To Trade Back in Round 1
Tom Rudawky is a former NFL scout for the New York Giants who previously worked in football operations for the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings. He now writes for The 33rd Team among other publications. Find him on Twitter @TRudy831 One of the things that makes the first round of the NFL Draft such an entertaining spectacle every year are the consistent amount of trades we see.
How to Nail Your Late-Round Draft Picks
While the biggest emphasis is put on the top of the draft, teams that are able to sustain success and progress are those who are systematic and detailed in their late-round selections. While nobody will hit on all late-round picks, if you follow the correct strategy there can be meaningful value at the end of the draft — not only in the short term (1-2 years), but the long run as well (3-4 years). In the later rounds, the key is to focus on traits and what you can build on.
Does College Sack Production Matter to NFL Success?
Georgia defensive end Travon Walker has been one of the late risers of the NFL Draft cycle. As tracked by NFL Mock Draft Database, the former five-star prospect was expected to be available in the second round as recently as New Years, but a strong CFP Championship game started an ascension that now may make it to first overall. It’s not difficult to see why.
What Have Been the Most Surprising Moves of the Offseason?
The 33rd Team’s Insiders Network is a group of former NFL coaches and front-office executives who are here to provide insight and perspective into all things football. We reach out to members of our Insiders Network to get their thoughts on topical questions. Here is this week’s question: What has been the most surprising thing that has happened this offseason in your opinion and why?
Is The Salary Cap Real?
There has been much discussion about whether the NFL Salary Cap is real or not. In any given year, the truth is that almost any team can fit in almost anybody they want if the player is important enough. This is why cap skeptics (mistakenly) exist. To understand this, you need to realize that, over time, cash will equal cap by player and by team. While there is some ability to affect the timing of charges, there is no way to avoid the charges altogether.
Will DK Metcalf, AJ Brown or Deebo Samuel Really Be Traded?
During one of the most turbulent offseasons in NFL history, the wide receiver landscape across the league has seen a dramatic shift. Just last month, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, and Robert Woods – who have accrued a combined 15 Pro Bowls, six first-team All-Pro selections, and two Super Bowls – were traded for a mix of contractual, financial, and roster construction reasons.
Ben Fennell's Top Running Backs
This is the first part of our 11-part positional breakdown of the April 28-30 NFL draft. Today: the running backs. Ben Fennell is an Emmy award-winning producer, editor and analyst across several sports and media platforms. He has been involved in the production of the last eight drafts for NFL Network and also is a producer for the NFL on CBS. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @BenFennell_nfl. Running backs haven’t been a very valuable commodity in the draft lately.
Did Deshaun Watson's Contract Break The Future QB Market?
The Deshaun Watson trade has been deeply discussed and evaluated from multiple lenses, including numerous times on The 33rd Team. But there is an aspect of the deal that hasn’t been examined, and it could impact every team in the league, especially those with young QBs who will be looking for long term extensions.
Risk vs. Reward in the First Wave of 2022 NFL Free Agency
There is one word that matters above all else when it comes to building an NFL roster: value. With the league ruled by the salary cap, each team has (roughly) the same amount to spend on its roster. The goal of each team is to outcompete and outlast their opponents while bidding and drafting from the same pool of players, so in order to be successful your decisions must create value above what they cost.
Why You Should Care About The Browns Rewarding Deshaun Watson
This is now the third story I’ve written on the Deshaun Watson trade, but I consider this to be the most important of the three. The Cleveland Browns not only traded for a player with 22 accusations of inappropriate sexual behavior, but they rewarded him on top of that with the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history. Financially and competitively, Watson is now better off than he was when those accusations were made.
Evaluating the Evaluators: An Opportunity to Find Productive Players
When a new head coach and/or GM is hired to an NFL team, one of their first responsibilities is assessing the roster they’ve been given. Going position by position, they must decide which players and contracts can provide the immediate impact or have the development potential to one day contribute to the team. Furthermore, many new coaches are bringing in their own scheme, leaving several players without a designated role on the roster.
Assessing the Impact of Calvin Ridley's Suspension
The NFL has announced that Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley has been suspended for the entire 2022 season for betting on NFL games in 2021. A press release from March 7 states that “the activity of Ridley took place in a 5-day window in November of 2021” while Ridley was away from the Falcons on the non-football illness list. Ridley may petition for reinstatement on or after February 23rd of 2023. He may appeal his suspension within 3 days of the filing of the suspension.
The 33rd Team’s Key NFL Combine Takeaways: Day 4
The 33rd Team is reporting on the NFL Combine live from Indianapolis all week. Here’s our final recap of the biggest takeaways from Day 4 of the event. Find our takeaways from Day 1, 2 and 3 linked below. Key Takeaways from Day 4 Baylor CB Kalon Barnes ran a 4.23 official 40-yard dash, the fastest time ever by a defensive player. The former track runner at Baylor ran a 10.29 100 Meter at the 2019 Baylor Invitational.
Deep Dive: The Background of Successful NFL Head Coaches
Since 2002, we’ve seen 130 different men given the full-time opportunity to lead an NFL team from the sidelines. With a trio (John Fox, Mike Mularkey and Lovie Smith) hosting three distinct tenures, and another 25 receiving two, there have been 159 total head coaching tenures over that span, counting the pre-2002 hires that extended into our span, but not interim coaches.
3 Non-Obvious Things that Made the Rams Champions
Veritable tomes of analysis have been crafted on how the Los Angeles Rams built their first league champion of the century. We’ve heard about the daring Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, and Von Miller trades, the underrated Eric Weddle and OBJ additions, and the Cooper Kupp-sized hole that Sean McVay blew into the Bengals.
Which NFL Players Could Receive The Franchise Tag This Offseason?
With the March 8th franchise tag deadline fast approaching, we’ve combed through the list of upcoming free agents and highlighted potential candidates to receive the tag before the deadline. Last year, 10 players were tagged and four ultimately signed extensions. Those four were Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, Broncos DS Justin Simmmons, Giants DL Leonard Williams, and Panthers OT Taylor Moton.
Everything You Need to Know About the Senior Bowl QBs
Although the NFL still has 12 teams remaining, draft season is already starting to get into swing once more. With the Senior Bowl just around the corner in Mobile, let’s take a look at the six QBs that will be peddling their wares to talent evaluators in hopes of landing in the first round of April’s draft.
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