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Articles by Peter Flom
Tiktok or not
“So I was tinkin’, lil brother” “I don’t recall dat bein’ yer strong suit but go ahead” “You’re cruisin’ for a brusin’ but I was tinkin’ we need more money” “We could make some a dose whatcha call ’em — Tik Toks and make a lot of money.” “Oh yeah, you mean like dat time Ozzie….” “Yeah, or when Jim pooped his pants from eatin’ duh lunch he didn’t put in the fridge….” “You remember last week when dey sent an e-mail to duh whole company about how people have to get dere cars outta duh parking...
Some Favorite Food YouTubers
I like to eat. And I like to cook. I'm a "foodie". One way to learn more about food is to read about it, and I have lots of books on food and cooking. But for learning (or learning about) a physical skill like cooking, video has a lot to recommend it, and, since the pioneers like Julia Child, there have been a lot of cooks on TV shows and, more lately, videos. This article is about some of my favorites. Some are "big names" and some much less so.
Why you should subscribe to Medium
It's cheap. It's just $5.00 per month. Depending on where you buy your coffee, that may be less than one cup of coffee! Or two cups! Anyway, it's less than a week's worth of coffee, unless ..... unless .... You don't drink coffee! It's OK if you don't. Some nice people don't. One of my sons doesn't. And that means you have more money to subscribe to Medium! It helps pay writers and writers deserve to be paid.
On Earth as it is on Television by Emily Jane
Aliens arrive. Giant alien ships appear over all the major cities of Earth. They stay a while. Then, they vanish. But are the aliens really gone? Warning: Some spoilers below. Emily Jane's debut novel, On Earth as it is on Television is a delight. It's a first contact novel that manages to play on a lot of the tropes of science fiction while doing new things; it gives a picture of 21st century American life from an alien perspective by looking at how ordinary people are affected by an alien invasion.
Four Statistics/Data Analysis Books to Get You Started
For data analysts, data scientists, scientists, and anyone who needs to use statistics Statistics can be roughly divided into theoretical and practical statistics. Theoretical statisticians work in universities. They come up with conjectures and prove theorems. Their work is a lot like mathematics. I don't know much about that stuff and this list is not for people who want to do that. This is for practical statisticians - data analysts. These days, there are a lot of terms for people who analyze data.
Good things to eat: Anchovies
By Peter Flom Photo by Diane Helentjaris on Unsplash This is the first story in what I hope will be a series called "good things to eat." What is a "good thing to eat" is, of course, somewhat subjective. But not entirely so! Introduction Anchovies get a bad rap. Many people say they hate anchovies. Not "dislike", not "not fond of" but hate. I love them. And you may not hate them quite as much as you think you do. One issue is that many...
Four stages of accepting a learning disability
This is an excerpt, somewhat edited, from my book: Screwed Up somehow but not Stupid: Life with a Learning Disability There are, I think, four stages of acceptance of an LD or any disability: 1. There's nothing wrong with me. There must be something wrong with you!
Points Schmoints by Marty Bergen
By Peter Flom This is a short book, almost a large pamphlet, distilling Marty Bergen's thoughts on hand evaluation in the game of bridge, a topic which seems very dear to his heart and on which he is one of the world's leading experts. This book is not for beginners, and top level players may already know a lot of it, but for the vast sea of people in-between, I think it is very helpful.
What I am reading: Aug 23, 2022
By Peter Flom Photo by Ed Robertson on Unsplash Last week's post is here. As usual, I am reading too many books at once. I finished: If this is a Gift, Can I Send it Back? by Jen Merrill. This is a very short, breezy memoir about being the mom of a 2E kid. I am on p. 15 of 66. I am still reading: Extra Life: A Short History of Living Longer by Steven...
What Is a Music Engraver? (And What Does It Take to Become One?) – Soundfly
Whether you’re a composer or musician dabbling in writing arrangements, creating legible sheet music is an important and often overlooked skill. Some may never be required to learn how to read sheet music, while many others write the bare minimum, creating basic charts for their band and working out the details during rehearsal. But when a professional score is needed, or when writing for a large orchestra, an engraver is employed to create the best score for musicians to read.
Why Math is an Art, Not a Science
Photo by Roman Mager on Unsplash Mathematics is usually classed with the sciences, both in official catalogs and in the popular imagination. People who are good at science are usually good at math, but the two subjects are very different in many ways. Math is, in some ways, more like one of the arts than one of the sciences, but it’s really sui generis.
Interesting words: Drachenfutter
Photo by Jess Bailey on Unsplash n. A gift given to placate someone, especially a spouse. Directly from German, literally ``dragon food.’’ Hasn’t everyone, at some point, bought a gift to atone for a misdeed? But what are those gifts? We can add an adjective to the word “gift’’ and say, for instance, “placatory gift’’, but now we have a single word that exactly matches the concept. Don’t think your drachenfutter is going to make this better! I want a divorce! This has no uses in Google Ngram Viewer.
PRESS: AMMO
For their inaugural exhibition, Lowell Ryan Projects presents artists Samuel Jablon, Spencer Lewis and Maysha Mohamedi in a group how titled Mind Body Soul. Each using the medium of paint, the artists create works that are deeply personal, and cross lines between reality and imagination, touching themes of spatiality, language, and the poetic nature of the city.
ANOVA explained without math: Why analyze variances to compare means?
Photo by rawpixel on Unsplash Some people who are new to statistics get confused about ANOVA (analysis of variance) and one common confusion is why we are analyzing variances in order to compare means. Here is an extremely nontechnical introduction. I am going to use an extreme example because it makes things clearer. There will be no formulas.
Not Just the Confederacy: Minnesota’s State Flag and Seal Celebrate Racism and Genocide
“The Great Seal of the State of Minnesota became official in 1861, with the present design legislated in 1983. It depicts a barefoot farmer plowing his field near St. Anthony Falls on the Mississippi River. His axe is driven into a tree trunk, with his rifle and powderhorn nearby. An Indian on horseback rides south, a summer setting sun in the background. The state motto, “L’Etoile du Nord”, or “Star of the North”, appears on a banner above the scenery.
Great quotations: Galileo on God and Intelligence
Justus Sustermans — portrait of Galileo from Wikimedia Commons The quote: I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use and by some other means to give us knowledge which we can attain by them. Who said it: Galileo Galilei (b. 1564, d. 1642) Where he said it: Letter to the grand duchess Christina (1615) Why it’s a great quote: It’s an argument for science from a believer.
Steak Jamaican
Get your taste buds tantalizing with this Caribbean-style dish made simple. Featuring our very own honey for the grill, this recipe is sweet, sour and delightfully delicious. Ingredients for 6 servings: 1/3 cup lime juice 2 Tablespoons vegetable oil 2 Tablespoons prepared mustard 2 cloves garlic, minced 1 teaspoon grated lime peel 1/2 teaspoon salt 1/2 teaspoon coarsely ground black pepper 2 lbs.
please stop reducing the word “Chinese” to only refer to “Chinese food”
People who refer to “Chinese food” as “Chinese” (without a noun, as in “I’m craving Chinese,” without any prior establishment that they’re talking about types of food options) are likely revealing their attitudes (perhaps unconscious) that they only see ethnically Chinese people as people who cook delicious food for them and nothing else. It’s dehumanizing and reductive regardless of whether they intend to dehumanize or not, or whether they do it with other types of food.
An impeachment poem
There’s just one thing that you should know “We’d like you to do us a favor, though” Is the English translation of “quid pro quo”. And that’s why Trump has got to go. The lesson that all this should teach? To all of Congress, we must preach: Because of the laws that Trump did breach, If you love your country you must impeach.
Book review: The Dark Vineyard by Martin Walker
Photo by Jaredd Craig on Unsplash This is the second in the Bruno series that started with Bruno, Chief of Police. Although The Dark Vineyard is a stand alone novel, I think you should read the first book first. Bruno is chief of police in a small town in southwest France. He really likes the town and he likes the fairly quiet life he usually leads — he helps the town get along, he teaches tennis and rugby to children, he cooks and eats and drinks wine. But that wouldn’t be a novel.
Interesting words: Adullamite
Photo by Brett Jordan on Unsplash Definition According to Merriam Webster, adullamite (which I learned about from my friend Nat Wooding on Facebook) is a noun meaning “one of a small group of seceders from a particular political or intellectual position’’. Pronunciation A duh luh mite. Etymology Adullamite comes from adding -ite to Adullam. In the Bible, King David and a group of followers sought refuge from King Saul in the cave of Adullam.
Book review: Bruno, Chief of Police by Martin Walker
Photo by Jaredd Craig on Unsplash Benoit Courreges, universally known as Bruno, is chief of police in a small town in southern France. It’s a fairly quiet life and that suits Bruno just fine. Most of his time is spent helping the town’s residents get along with each other and avoiding the inspectors from the European Union. He teaches the children tennis and rugby. Bruno also loves to eat and cook. He’s a bit lonely and looking for a relationship, but, overall, he is quite happy.
Are dates nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio?
I Photo by Maddi Bazzocco on Unsplash I originally posted this on my blog: www.statisticalanalysisconsulting.com. Are dates nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio? Dates themselves are interval, but I could see cases where they could be any of those four. If you are not positing any monotonic change over time, and you have only a few dates, then nominal might make sense. For instance, suppose you are positing that it is day of the week that makes a difference.
Three conceits of science fiction
Photo by Host Sorter on Unsplash I love written science fiction and have been reading it for 50 years. I think there are three basic conceits, or assumptions, that SF makes and has difficulty justifying. Two seem very widely known, the third less so. First conceit: Faster than light travel Photo by Adam Muise on Unsplash As far as we know, faster than light (FTL) travel is impossible. There is very little reason to think we are wrong about this.
modeling - What is the meaning of "All models are wrong, but some are useful" - Cross Validated
I think its meaning is best analyzed by looking at it in two parts: "All models are wrong" that is, every model is wrong because it is a simplification of reality. Some models, especially in the "hard" sciences, are only a little wrong. They ignore things like friction or the gravitational effect of tiny bodies. Other models are a lot wrong - they ignore bigger things. In the social sciences, we ignore a lot. "But some are useful" - simplifications of reality can be quite useful.
Have there been two consecutive presidents from the same party in the USA?
Certainly, in fact, it's more common than switching Jefferson - Madison - Monroe - JQ Adams : All Democratic-Republicans Jackson - van Buren : Both Democrats Harrison - Tyler : Both Whigs Taylor - Fillmore : Both Whigs Pierce - Buchanan : Both Democrats Grant - Hayes - Garfield - Arthur : All Republicans McKinley - T Roosevelt - Taft - All Republicans Harding - Coolidge - Hoover - All Republicans FDR - Truman - Both Democrats Kennedy - Johnson - Both Democrats Nixon - Ford : Both Republicans...
Peter Flom's answer to Why has 'income inequality' replaced 'poverty' as a political issue?
One reason is that income inequality is easier to measure and compare over time and place. What is a "poor person"? How much income makes you "not poor"? How much "stuff"? You can't base this solely on $ income because $5 per day in one place is not equivalent to $5 in another place - this is true even within the USA and much more clear if you compare the USA to, say Benin. Furthermore, even fairly low income people today have stuff that Louis XIV could not have dreamed of.
Which president was better or worse: Jimmy Carter or Barack Obama?
As a matter of logic, this question is equivalent to "Who was a better president, Jimmy Carter or Barack Obama?" Carter was much better than his reputation. He was the last president to have a sane energy policy (although Obama may join him). He helped the nation recover from the Nixon-Ford mess and was a thoroughly decent human being. He is also the best ex-president in 200 years (since JQ Adams) although I don't agree with him about everything.
Would the average American be more likely to have heard of Yale or MIT?
Yale is much more famous than MIT. Of course, most people who have heard of one have heard of the other, but it's hard to imagine that there are many people who have heard of MIT but not Yale, but quite a few people have heard of Yale but not MIT, if only because of sports (MIT has what is, to my mind, a very sane approach to sports). Also, Yale has existed longer (1701 vs. 1861), has more famous graduates - and the graduates are more likely to identify themselves as Yale graduates.
Has America ever had a technocrat president?
Well, one president has a patent. Abraham Lincoln patented a device for getting ships unstuck from the mud. Does that make him a technocrat? Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln were surveyors (Lincoln only briefly), which involves technology. Thomas Jefferson certainly believed in the technology of his time. Herbert Hoover was an engineer.
Is this really how p-values work? Can a million research papers per year be based on pure randomness?
Your concern is exactly the concern that underlies a great deal of the current discussion in science about reproducability. However, the true state of affairs is a bit more complicated than you suggest. First, let's establish some terminology. Null hypothesis significance testing can be understood as a signal detection problem -- the null hypothesis is either true or false, and you can either choose to reject or retain it.
Is this really how p-values work? Can a million of research papers per year be based on pure randomness?
I'm very new to statistics, and I'm just learning to understand the basics, which include the p-values. But there is a huge question mark in my mind right now, and I kinda hope my understanding is wrong. Here's my thought process: Aren't all researches around the world somewhat like the "infinite monkey theorem" monkeys? Consider that there are 23887 universities in the world. If each university has 1000 students, that's 23 millions of students each year.
Is nominal, ordinal, & binary for quantitative data, qualitative data, or both?
These typologies can easily confuse as much as they explain. For example, binary data, as introduced in many introductory texts or courses, certainly sound qualitative: yes or no, survived or died, present or absent, male or female, whatever. But score the two possibilities 1 or 0 and everything is then perfectly quantitative. Such scoring is the basis of all sorts of analyses: the proportion female is just the average of several 0s for males and 1s for females.
Percentile vs quantile vs quartile
The only 2-quantile is called the median The 3-quantiles are called tertiles or terciles → T The 4-quantiles are called quartiles → Q The 5-quantiles are called quintiles → QU The 6-quantiles are called sextiles → S The 10-quantiles are called deciles → D The 12-quantiles are called duo-deciles → Dd The 20-quantiles are called vigintiles → V The 100-quantiles are called percentiles → P The 1000-quantiles are called permilles → Pr
Regression Developing Countries: GDP-Growth or GDP
Basically, there's no ambiguity here: you must use the differences in the regression. There could be some discussion whether it's a simple difference or a log difference, but the latter is more common in the literature. If you had a cross-section, then this wouldn't matter. For a short period of time it probably doesn't matter that much either, but you're probably going to include countries with high growth in your sample, so the rate of change would be more appropriate.
Test whether triplet of numbers is significantly different from $K$ other triplets
Given $K$ triplets $t_k:=(a_k^{(1)},a_k^{(2)},a_k^{(3)}) \in \mathbb{R}^3, k=1,...,K$ and the triplet to test against them $t=(a^{(1)},a^{(2)},a^{(3)}) \in \mathbb{R}^3$. How can one test whether $t$ differs significantly from the $K$ other triplets, in the sense that $t$ has "little probability to occur in the distribution of the $t_k$s"? That is, I want to test whether this particular triplet is somehow significantly different from the others.
Generalized linear models (covariates and splitting files)
After your comments I think the sample size is not a big issue. But like Peter I would be concerned about the missing data and understanding why so many samples have missing information. If your software won't let you fit some data because if missing covariates see which covariates are missing. If it is just a couple that cause you to lose so much data drop them and then fit the model. Now many observations will enter the model because they will not have missing covariates.
Minimum sample size for unpaired t-test
I assume you mean you have 7 data points from one group, and 2 data points from a second group, both of which are subsets of populations (e.g. subset of males and subset of females). The maths for the t-test can be obtained from this Wikipedia page. We will assume an independent two-sample t-test, with unequal sample sizes (7 vs. 2) and unequal variances, so about half-way down that page. You can see that the calculation is based on means and standard deviations.
Resources for learning R
Take the 2-minute tour × Cross Validated is a question and answer site for people interested in statistics, machine learning, data analysis, data mining, and data visualization. It's 100% free, no registration required.
Making sense of principal component analysis, eigenvectors & eigenvalues
After the excellent post by JD Long in this thread, I looked for a simple example, and the R code necessary to produce the PCA and then go back to the original data. It gave me some first-hand geometric intuition, and I want to share what I got. The dataset and code can be directly copied and pasted into R form Github. I used a data set that I found online on semiconductors here, and I trimmed it to just two dimensions - "atomic number" and "melting point" - to facilitate plotting.
variable reference category - Cross Validated
I am running a logistic regression to compare the performances of different hospitals in a particular region. I defined a categorical variable "hospital_ID" and would like to test not just one reference hospital but all of them. This is to identify pairs of hospitals with significant differences in the outcome I am measuring (prenatal birth).
Specification of mixed model effects
I have a study design with a between subjects factor (treatment: verum vs placebo) and a within subjects factor (time: before vs after). Subjects were entered into the model as a random effect. So far this is straightforward to implement, however now a third factor comes into play. The subjects were recruited in two "waves", so the this factor can be named seasonality with two levels (winter vs spring). I am not sure how this factor can be introduced into the mixed model.
Why does this create a low-pass effect? - Cross Validated
I've been playing around with framing audio data and training a single-layer autoencoder to find a dimensionality-reduced form (say 128-sample frames to 32-dimension frames). When I test the audio after going through the encode/decode layers, it appears to have a low-passed effect. Why might this be? For reference, an FIR low-pass filter is just a moving average.
What is a complete list of the usual assumptions for linear regression?
$\begingroup$ The answer depends heavily on how do you define complete and usual.
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