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Articles by Peter Head
Copyright of Digital Images of Biblical Manuscripts
The other day I attended an interesting professional development session on "Foundations of Copyright for Researchers" (by the way, this was not punishment for using academia.edu). One of the interesting things about this was a discussion about a recent UK court case and its implications for copyright of digital images - something many of us are interested in and use pretty much every day.
Working with Manuscripts: A very brief review (maybe just a note, really)
I just finished reading this new book: Liv Ingeborg Lied & Brent Nongbri, Working with Manuscripts: A Guide for Textual Scholars (New Haven & London: Yale University Press, 2025). It is not a very long or substantial book (179 pages). I read it in a couple of hours on the train to London (and back again). It is very readable, with a good number of photos and illustrations.
French election: Is this a new Meloni moment for Europe?
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Macron calls for snap election: In response to his party's poor performance in the EU parliamentary elections, Emmanuel Macron has called for a snap election. He explained that this pre-emptive move was to prevent opposition parties from dissolving his government later in the year, despite some considering this decision reckless.
French election, king Nvidia, and FedEx earnings
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats French election impact: President Macron’s unexpected snap election in France has created significant uncertainty, pushing the France-Germany 10-year yield spread to its highest since 2012 and negatively impacting European equities, especially the French CAC 40 index. Nvidia's rise: Nvidia briefly became the most valuable company in the world, significantly boosting U.S. technology stocks.
Otis: A one-way lift?
Equities 10 minutes to read Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Historical innovation and expansion: Otis began in 1853 with Elisha Graves Otis's invention of a safety device that revolutionized lift safety. The company pioneered lift technology with the first passenger lift in 1857 and expanded globally in the early 20th century, installing notable systems like those in the Empire State Building.
Evangelical Textual Criticism
There is a really good discussion of a significant amount of evidence for female involvement in literary activities such as reading, authoring, and writing, in Leah Mascia, 'Female Monastics and Devotees in Late Antique and Byzantine Egypt: Papyrological, Epigraphic and Archaeological Sources' in Female Agency in Manuscript Cultures (ed. E. Grossmann; SMC 39; Berlin/Boston: de Gruyter, 2024), 129-169. The whole book is available Open Access.
Tech rally, inflation surprise, and EU trade war
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Two-lane economy concept: The recent market performance highlights a "two-lane economy," where sectors immune to high interest rates, like information technology, are thriving (up 5.3%), while others are struggling. The US equity market outperformed with a 1.5% increase, contrasting with a 1.6% decline in the European market amid political uncertainty in France.
US rate cut seems distant as inflation report looms
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Nonfarm Payrolls impact on rate cuts: The upside surprise in the US Nonfarm Payrolls has shifted market expectations, now predicting only one rate cut in December, a significant change from the seven cuts anticipated at the beginning of the year and the Fed's forecast of three cuts. This shift suggests the Fed is becoming more cautious and delaying the rate cut cycle due to inaccuracies in its own models.
AI bonanza drives new highs and dangerous index concentration
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats AI-Driven equity surge: The recent AI boom, particularly driven by Nvidia's performance, has propelled US equities to new highs, significantly increasing the concentration of the S&P 500 in tech stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple, which now comprise 20% of the index. Market dynamics and sector performance: Real estate benefited from lower US bond yields, while the energy sector remains attractive despite a drop in crude oil prices.
Commodities setback, investment drought in mining, and EM elections
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Commodity market decline and investment hesitation: Commodities declined by 1.9% due to weak emerging market equities and China's manufacturing sector contraction.
The Greetings of Romans 16 and the Audience of Romans
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-ndmmz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-03T11:19:34.619Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 June 2024 Keywords GreetingsAudience of RomansRomans 16Mullins Type Short Study Information New Testament Studies , Volume 70 , Issue 2 , April 2024 , pp.
Chinese setback, AI woes, and ECB decision
Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service.
AstraZeneca: From patent cliff to oncology leader
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Strategic shifts and R&D focus: After a challenging period in the early 2010s, AstraZeneca underwent significant restructuring to increase R&D investment, focusing on rebuilding its drug pipeline, particularly in oncology. This strategic shift, led by CEO Pascal Soriot from 2013 onwards, positioned the company for future growth.
What level of confidence we should have in reconstructions of fragmentary papyrus texts?
With a fragmentary papyrus manuscript—as the majority of our NT papyri are—and a known text being copied, editors very often reconstruct the missing portions of text beyond the boundaries of the extant material. This is all well and good, and totally necessary. But one might ask the question as to what level of confidence we should have in the reconstructed (=non-extant) text?
New all-time high on speculative stocks comeback
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats US Equities reach new highs: US stocks hit new all-time highs, buoyed by lower-than-expected April CPI figures, leading to expectations of Fed rate cuts. The information technology, real estate, and utilities sectors saw notable gains due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes. Japanese and emerging markets update: Japanese equities underperformed due to a stronger yen and anticipated policy rate changes.
Key earnings this week and Buffetts hint of India opportunities
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Earnings season conclusion: With 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings, the broad market impact is waning, buoyed by optimistic corporate outlooks. Sector performance: Materials and real estate sectors outperformed expectations during the earnings season, reflecting positive surprises in revenue and earnings.
Top quality companies and how to decode their traits
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Definition and performance of quality companies: A quality company is defined as one that can compound shareholder returns faster than the overall market over many years. An example is Microsoft, which from March 1986 to April 2024 achieved a 26% annualized return, significantly outperforming the MSCI World Index's 8.3% annualized return. This demonstrates the powerful effect of consistent quality and compounding over time.
Earnings week Amazon AMD Eli Lilly Apple and Novo Nordisk
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Philips sleep apnea settlement: Philips shares soared by 43% following a Q1 earnings report highlighted by a $1.1 billion early settlement with US authorities over sleep apnea therapy machines. This settlement resolved uncertainties and provided clearer visibility on future profitability, although revenue and operating income met expectations without surpassing them.
US earnings scorecard Strong revenue growth will support equities
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Tesla faces challenges: Tesla experienced significant pressure with a 53% drop in EPS and a 9% decline in revenue year-over-year, highlighting issues with falling demand and increased competition. Strong growth in AI: Alphabet and Microsoft reported robust growth driven by AI demand in the cloud, with Alphabet announcing its first dividend and a $70 billion share repurchase.
Technology stocks fired a warning shot on Friday ahead of earnings
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats US tech and communication sectors faced declines, while financials and utilities rose, signalling a shift towards value stocks over momentum stocks. NVIDIA's stock plummeted 10% despite strong AI chip demand, influenced by concerns over increased competition and overvaluation risks.
ASML earnings Focus on the long-term growth in semiconductors
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Temporary setback in orders: ASML's Q1 results showed a significant miss on orders, leading to a 4% decline in share price. However, management reaffirmed mid-term growth goals, emphasizing long-term potential despite short-term challenges. Focus on long-term secular growth: Despite short-term fluctuations, ASML benefits from the increasing adoption of semiconductors across various applications.
Is your portfolio designed to weather the new geopolitical era
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats The war in Ukraine and rising tensions between the US/Europe and China are creating a new economic landscape with high uncertainty and inflation. Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios with portfolio components like AI, defence, cybersecurity, and renewable energy stocks, as well as gold, commodities, and inflation-protected bonds. Traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolios might not be suitable for the current economic climate.
What Iran attack means for air defence iPhone loses market share
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Warfare evolution: Iran's recent attack on Israel underscores the need for updated defence technologies, as drone and missile swarms challenge traditional surface-to-air defence systems, prompting a demand for more efficient solutions.
Q1 earnings season starts today
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Financials are an attractive sector for investors due to their high dividend yield, potential for stock buybacks, and earnings growth. This is especially true compared to other sectors besides energy. Today is a significant day for financials because large banks like JPMorgan Chase are reporting earnings. Their performance will impact the entire sector.
The investment case for European equities
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Europe's economy: Investor sentiment is improving, real-time GDP indicators suggest the recession is ending, and lower energy prices are easing pressure on businesses and households. European equities: Not as attractive as US equities strategically, but offer gems with good value and potential for surprise. European defence stocks: Seen as a high growth industry due to the war in Ukraine and Europe's focus on self-reliance.
EV fears turn real on big Tesla miss on Q1 deliveries
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats Tesla's Q1 deliveries missed estimates by a significant 14%, the biggest miss in their history. This is due to a combination of factors including transportation issues, higher interest rates, and lower consumer demand for EVs. Tesla's valuation is currently high compared to peers and future growth expectations. The company's future success depends on securing a large global market share in EVs and maintaining a strong return on invested capital.
What are the most attractive sectors for the long-term investor
Peter Garnry Head of Saxo Strats The healthcare sector is expected to have the most attractive long-term returns, driven by high expected real earnings growth. Energy sector, while having a high dividend yield, is expected to have negative real growth due to factors like electrification. Investors can estimate long-term returns by considering factors like dividend yield, buyback yield and real long-term earnings growth.
Nvidia new AI chip Unilever restructuring and Nike earnings
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Nvidia launched Blackwell GPU exceeding expectations with 2.5x better performance than the previous generation and announced new NVLink switches, analysts are positive with a 12-month price target of $932. Unilever is restructuring to save €800mn in costs over the next three years and separating its €7.9bn ice cream business, analysts have a 12-month price target of GBp 4,256.
Signs of green metals comeback
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Copper prices surged 14.3% since late October 2023 and 5.3% this week due to production cuts by major miners, shutdown of Cobre Panama mine (world's largest), and expectations of global economic growth. Lithium carbonate, a key battery compound, prices are rising on tightening supply and showing signs of recovery after a downturn in late 2022.
Tech rally echoes dot-com boom Time to reduce exposure
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy US tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, are surging despite yesterday’s rise in bond yields and a hotter-than-expected US inflation report. Insider selling at Meta and Amazon, along with high valuations and erratic price swings in Nvidia, raise red flags in US technology stocks. Retail investor speculation in options and after-hours trading mirrors risky dot-com era behaviour.
Three interesting companies with female CEOs
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Women in leadership – this equity note discusses three companies (Citigroup, Oracle, and Novonesis) with female CEOs. Citigroup (Financial Services) - Led by Jane Fraser. Potential for upside due to improved economic conditions, cost-cutting measures, and high interest rates. Risks include potential economic downturn, regulatory scrutiny, and competition. Oracle (Technology) - Led by Safra Catz.
CrowdStrike jumps on earnings as Magnificent Seven stocks crack
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy CrowdStrike earnings: Reported Q4 earnings of $845 million, beating estimates of $840 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.95, beating estimates of $0.83. FY25 revenue guidance is $3.92-$3.99 billion, in line with estimates of $3.94 billion. Demand remains strong due to CrowdStrike's "all on one platform" approach and geopolitical risks related to the war in Ukraine.
More headwinds for green stocks as high interest rates continue to bite
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Green stocks still underperforming: Despite expectations of a rebound in 2023, green stocks (including renewable energy and electric vehicles) are down significantly year-to-date. Higher interest rates: Make green projects less profitable due to their capital-intensive nature. Lower natural gas prices: Reduce the economic incentive for switching to renewable energy. Increased focus on defence spending: Diverts investor attention away from green sectors.
Here we go again the bubble fever is back
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Strong start to the year: The S&P 500 is up 6.5%, nearly a year's worth of normal returns, driven by optimism and booming AI and obesity themes. Concerns about overvaluation: Nvidia's recent success and high valuations in US equities raise concerns of a potential bubble similar to the dot-com era. Negative real returns possible: Historically, similar valuation levels have led to negative real returns after accounting for inflation.
Earnings Watch Salesforce Snowflake and Leonardo
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Focus on US tech earnings this week: Salesforce us expected to report 10% YoY revenue growth, focusing on profitability. Guidance for 11% YoY growth in FY25. Snowflake is expected to report 29% YoY revenue growth (down from 54% YoY), potential upside surprise from generative AI. European defence sector: Leonardo is expected to report lower revenue growth (5% YoY) compared to peers, share price exceeding analyst expectations.
Nvidia earnings Generative AI has reached tipping point
Equities 10 minutes to read Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Nvidia beat expectations: Revenue grew 265% YoY in Q4 FY24, exceeding analyst estimates. Q1 FY25 guidance is also 10% above consensus. Generative AI seen as key driver: Nvidia's CFO highlighted generative AI as a major growth factor, potentially leading to continued model upgrades and higher returns.
All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Nvidia's Q4 earnings are highly anticipated: Analysts expect record-breaking revenue and EPS growth due to the strong AI demand. Uncertainty surrounds the report: While Nvidia usually beats estimates, geopolitical risks and potential overvaluation raise concerns. AI theme drives markets: The AI sector is experiencing explosive growth, reflected in Nvidia's success and a basket of related stocks.
European top innovators research and development intensity drives returns
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: R&D is key for long-term shareholder returns and generally understanding the drivers of increasing returns. One key driver is Wright's Law (cost reduction with cumulative output) and Economies of Scale. High ROIC is a hallmark of competitive edge for generating superior returns and high ROIC often reflects industry or technology shifts.
Recession and not inflation is the real equity killer
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: Yesterday's US inflation report was a surprise, pushing equity markets, especially Nasdaq, lower. This hotter-than-expected inflation pushed rate cut expectations further down the calendar. A March rate cut is off the table, with first cut either in May or June, and by December we might see four cuts. This is a drastic change from the seven cuts envisioned earlier this year. So what happened?
The boom in equities is coming to Japan Arm sets new record on valuation
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: Japanese equities are booming with strong gains in tech stocks and specifically Tokyo Electron up 13.3% due to strong semiconductor equipment demand in China. Overall, while Japanese equities look impressive in JPY, but their return is more modest compared to US and Europe in USD terms. The future path of JPY remains crucial for foreign investors.
Airbnb battles headwinds as fee hike may boost profits can Airbus soar past Boeing
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: Airbnb heads into earnings with declining growth, war-related demand concerns, and oversupply worries. However, a recent fee hike and lower marketing expenses offer hope for improved margins. Investors also await news on geographical revenue split and the company's future growth trajectory. Meanwhile, Airbus boasts a strong post-pandemic recovery, outperforming Boeing and nearing market value dominance.
Q4 2023 earnings scorecard and Arm bonanza
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: With most S&P 500 companies having reported, the Q4 2023 earnings season is nearing its end. We can observe various winners and losers based on different metrics. Companies exceeding analysts' expectations tend to generate positive market sentiment and the top five surprises on revenue among large US stocks include NextEra Energy, General Electric, Eli Lilly, Linde, and Meta.
Have US equities gone too far this time
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: While US equity valuations are high, equities still offer a better long-term return than government bonds when considering the "real" return after accounting for inflation. The high equity valuations suggest lower future returns, but it is not an exact science. Adding dividend yield, buyback yield, and expected GDP growth estimates a 5.9% annualised real return for equities. 10-year government bonds currently offer a 1.5% real annualised return.
Earnings Watch Busy week with focus on Caterpillar Eli Lilly and Siemens
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: The upcoming week promises a packed schedule of earnings releases, with companies across various sectors in Europe and the US reporting their Q4 results. Caterpillar, the world's leading machinery equipment company, might encounter headwinds in 2024 due to rising interest rates impacting the construction industry. Their earnings report could offer valuable insights into broader economic trends.
Earnings review Apple Amazon and Meta
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: Tech giants ended 2023 strong, confirming solid growth and profitability despite some cautious notes from Apple. Amazon bounced back with cost-cutting and cloud success, while Meta emerged as the big winner with strong earnings, first-ever dividend, and bullish guidance. Overall, tech enters 2024 with momentum and a focus on sustainable growth, despite individual challenges.
What are the Feds possible considerations on rate cuts
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: The FOMC language yesterday pushing back at the market’s pricing on a rate cut coming in March was a bit of surprise to the market. We go through the various arguments for why the Fed is hesitating on cutting the policy rate and also the key reasons why the Fed should cut the policy rate and continue over the next 12-18 months. Did the Fed provide a hawkish or dovish message yesterday in its FOMC statement and subsequent press conference?
Earnings review Microsoft Alphabet AMD and Novo Nordisk
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: Microsoft, Alphabet and Novo Nordisk all delivered strong quarterly results. Microsoft's cloud business is growing rapidly, Alphabet's advertising revenue is strong, and Novo Nordisk's weight loss drugs are in high demand. AMD missed on its Q1 revenue guidance, which sent its shares down 6%. Investors are nervous that AMD's results are a warning of a potential slowdown for Nvidia.
Earnings Watch Big earnings week with technology giants in focus
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: The performance of the US technology sector will be closely watched this week as the largest companies in the S&P 500 report their earnings. Investors will be looking for signs that the sector is still strong, despite the recent economic downturn. Companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Meta are expected to report strong earnings growth, but the focus will be on their outlook for the future.
Tesla earnings review Between two mountain tops
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: Tesla is in a transition year, with growth slowing down and gross margins under pressure. The company is facing a number of risks, including rising interest rates, slowing EV demand, Elon Musk's fight for more control, wage pressures, and increasing competition. Tesla shareholders should prepare for more volatility and potential disappointments in 2024.
Investment boom in technology and earnings review
Peter Garnry Head of Equity Strategy Summary: The technology sector is booming, with companies in health care, IT, and communication services investing heavily in capital expenditures and R&D. This is a sign of improving growth prospects and a potential productivity boost. Netflix and ASML both reported strong earnings this week, with Netflix beating estimates on subscriber growth and ASML reporting strong orders intake.
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