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Articles by Peter Lundgreen
Hope is in football
IT was a surprise for some that German gross domestic product (GDP) growth dropped to zero percent in the second quarter. At Lundgreen's, we were not surprised — this is not to say "look, we were right" as nobody in the financial markets gets it right all the time. The key is that we have pointed at underlying weak development in the German economy since before the Covid-19 crisis. We argue that the macro problems that are now becoming obvious in Germany have been developing for several years.
Exciting days in Jackson Hole
THESE days, central bank celebrities from around the world gather in the US Midwest, and this time, it is very important what the first among equals has to say. It's that special time of the year again when the yearly symposium for central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, takes place from August 22 to 24.
Comfortable with a downturn
A MONTHLY survey conducted by the leading US bank, the Bank of America, shows a very significant drop in expectations on global growth among large fund managers. The survey is always interesting to read and this time around it is for a couple of reasons. This month, 242 large fund managers responded to the survey where global growth expectations dropped from minus 6 percent to minus 27 percent. It is the biggest month-on-month drop in two-and-a-half years.
Business as usual in China after the NPC congress
THE yearly National People's Congress (NPC) in China took place from the 4th to 11th of March. It is not a forum where new politics or economic initiatives are discussed from the speaker's desk with around 3,000 delegates. The interesting part is the communication from the political leadership on where they want to take the country and how to do it.
French economy in a death spiral
IT is the season for announcing results for 2023. On a national level, many countries have published gross domestic product (GDP) growth data for last year. Fiscal results are also trickling in from other countries including France — the second-largest economy on the European continent and in the eurozone. The result is not final and outspoken but apparently so disappointing that it has to be sneaked into the media. It's an old trick to use when the reality is too bad to publish.
While waiting for rate cuts
LAST year, the US Federal Reserve Bank, the Fed for short, announced that in 2024 it would cut interest rates from the highest level in more than 20 years. It did not say precisely when, but based on the indications at that time the mid-year was a good forecast. However, a majority in the American bond market had long made the bet that the Fed would cut interest rates faster than the central bank expected itself, and this is actually an interesting position.
The Philippines back in the high-growth league
LAST year, the Philippine economy grew by 5.6 percent and this year the 6.0 percent barrier might be touched. This brings the country back to the top of the global league in gross domestic product (GDP) growth. For investors, this kind of achievement is always interesting. The population in the Philippines is currently around 117.3 million, but the absolute size of the economy in a global comparison is still more modest.
Kinas vingeskudte aktiemarked
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Germany: Europe's tired man
On January 15, it was announced that the German economy contracted by 0.3 percent in 2023. Was it a surprise? Not really, but for Germany it was still bitter when the reality hit the headlines. The negative gross domestic product (GDP) result was the poorest among all comparable economies in the world. The German economy is the biggest in the whole of Europe so it's actually quite important for investors and companies.
The battered Chinese stock market
WHEN China's 2023 gross domestic product results were published in January, it met expectations of 5.2-percent growth. Under normal conditions, the data should not have caused big market gyrations. However, investors were thirsty for good news of some kind, which the data did not provide. It showed plain development without signs of progress in private consumption, and the real estate market is also under stress.
Investors in Christmas celebration
THE US central bank handed out large Christmas gifts on Wednesday, December 13. The result of the monetary policy meeting was to keep rates at a long-term high, but the comments from the Federal Reserve Bank were reason for cheer in financial markets. Maybe the cheers are so loud because it was, after all, a surprise that the Fed has already turned around and is outright pointing at rate cuts next year.
Germany in unintended inflation fight
On November 15, the German Federal Constitutional Court issued a dramatic ruling that caused a severe freeze in public spending, a situation Germany never has explored before in modern history. The verdict blocks 60 billion euros ($65 billion) in public spending, which is a significant amount. The background is slightly technical and is combined with hopeless German politics. Understanding the ruling Already have an active account? Log in here.
China grasps for another chance
THE global headwind surrounding China has been a theme for a long time now as it has a significant effect on the financial and the capital markets. Global negative vibrations have sent stock prices of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and New York to very low levels. All the asset managers I speak with are underweighted on Chinese stocks.
Corruption, administrative raps filed vs Leyte mayor
CRIMINAL and administrative complaints have been filed before the Office of the Ombudsman against incumbent Palompon, Leyte Mayor Ramon Oñate and three other municipal officials for the alleged unlawful alteration of land zoning rules to allow commercial activities to encroach into a watershed reserve.
The tide is changing
THE 1st of November was an exciting day. The reason for my excitement was due to the monetary policy meeting at the American central bank, the US Federal Reserve. The question was not if the most powerful central bank in the world would hike interest rates again; that was not a realistic outcome. The wording of the statement at the following press conference, this time, was more important than normal.
Good that the traffic jam is back in Manila
HERE we are again, in a huge traffic jam in Manila. Together with my company's regional manager, we are on our way to an interview, and the feeling is that the other 14.7 million people (the population during daytime) in this huge city are also on their way somewhere. But these endless traffic queues are better than a completely opposite situation. I have never come across analyses that have suggested any benefit whatsoever from car queues.
Godt, at bilkøen er tilbage i Manila
Nu sidder vi her så, i en kæmpe bilkø i Manila. Sammen med mit firmas lokale chef i metropolen er vi på vej til et interview, og følelsen er, at det samme er de øvrige 14,7 mio. mennesker i storbyen (antal i dagtimerne). De par millioner mennesker, der pendler ind og ud af byen, skal også være et sted, bl.a.
Finansmarkerne er fortsat robuste
After months of regulatory delay, Microsoft has finally closed its $69 billion deal to buy Activisio...
The financial markets are robust
IF parts or the whole of the financial market are overpriced, any event can make it tumble. In particular, the Russian attack on Ukraine gave a reminder about this risk because it sent already rising inflation even higher. In February last year, the Russian aggression rocked financial markets. Now, a corner of the Middle East is on fire, but so far, the markets remain calm. The Hamas attack on Israel led to an immediate reaction in the oil market: a rising oil price.
Det føles som den 20. november 1985
09/10/2023 KL. 11:00 For abonnenter Investorer virker i tiltagende grad stressede, hvilket afspejles i et mere nervøst finansmarked verden rundt, men find roen i mega-trends, det hjælper. Der er ingen tvivl om, at den globale økonomi ikke ligefrem sprudler af fremdrift, og det kan stresse aktieinvestorer. Specielt i en finansverden der vender tilbage til den naturlighed, at likviditet har en pris.
It feels like November 1985
THERE is no doubt that the global economy is not exactly bursting with momentum, which may stress equity investors, especially in a financial world returning to the normalcy where liquidity has a price. Right now, the stress is even more pronounced in the bond markets, where the frustration is that inflation is still not under control, especially in western economies. However, it remains my view that the majority of bond investors will soon begin to look forward to more life after high inflation.
18 kølige måneder i vente for den globale økonomi
03/10/2023 KL. 12:00 For abonnenter I årevis er økonomier og investorer blevet hjulpet igennem krisetider med statsstøtte og billig likviditet. Det er nu forbi, men den kølige modvind ser ud til at vare ved. Jeg er virkelig spændt på, hvordan den globale bnp-vækst falder ud i dette tredje kvartal. Hele verden rundt kan man mærke, at der skal arbejdes for at holde væksten i gang. Min vurdering er fortsat, at eurozonen får det sværest, og nu ser jeg kølig modvind helt ind i 2025.
18 chilly months ahead
I'M really excited to see how global gross domestic product (GDP) growth pans out this third quarter. All over the world, one can feel that work needs to be done in order to keep growth going. My assessment remains that the eurozone will have the toughest time, and now I see cold headwinds well into 2025. It surprised many when Europe's largest economy slipped into an economic hole with negative GDP growth.
The peak reached in financial markets
THURSDAY, the 14th of September, was a historic day in the European financial market. On that day, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the interest rate to 4 percent, the highest in the central bank's history. The ECB previously set the highest interest rate to date at 3.75 percent in 2000 but now it is higher, and it is also a way to celebrate its 25th anniversary.
Toppen er nået i finansmarkedet
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Acupuncture is not enough for China's economy Original
IN China, there seems to be an internal political awareness that the economy will not reach the desired gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5 percent on its own this year. A completely natural explanation for one of the challenges is that the export sector in China is experiencing headwinds because its markets, the United States and the eurozone, are very close to zero growth.
Akupunktur hjælper ikke Kinas økonomi
12/09/2023 KL. 06:00 For abonnenter Målet om at nå en bnp-vækst på fem pct. bliver uhyre svær at nå for det kinesiske styre. Dels er det udfordret af en svagere købekraft i de primære eksportlande, dels lægger den indenlandske økonomi forhindringer i vejen. Det er tydeligt, at der er en politisk bevidsthed om, at Kinas økonomi ikke ved egen kraft når den ønskede bnp-vækst på fem pct. i år.
Akupunktur hjælper ikke Kinas økonomi
12/09/2023 KL. 06:00 For abonnenter Målet om at nå en bnp-vækst på fem pct. bliver uhyre svær at nå for det kinesiske styre. Dels er det udfordret af en svagere købekraft i de primære eksportlande, dels lægger den indenlandske økonomi forhindringer i vejen. Det er tydeligt, at der er en politisk bevidsthed om, at Kinas økonomi ikke ved egen kraft når den ønskede bnp-vækst på fem pct. i år.
Udfordringen i Jackson Hole
04/09/2023 KL. 17:00 For abonnenter Vestens største centralbanker og kendte økonomer mødtes for nylig ved det årlige symposium i Wyoming, USA, men vigtigheden af samlingen forsvinder, efterhånden som den globale økonomiske magt skifter. Det årlige centralbanktræf i Jackson Hole er vel overstået, hvilket i sig selv naturligvis er godt. En anden positiv udvikling er, at inflationen er væsentligt mere under kontrol, end da symposiet fandt sted sidste år på samme tidspunkt.
The real challenge in Jackson Hole
THE annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole has been concluded, which is of course good. Another positive development is that inflation has come significantly more under control than when the symposium took place at the same time last year. Some of the participating central banks have brought inflation more under control than others but this does not change the fact that there were several weighty challenges for the participants to discuss.
Gigantiske grønne investeringer i Asien
28/08/2023 KL. 17:00 For abonnenter Asien får klart den højeste økonomiske vækst i år og i 2024 sammenlignet med resten af verden, men klimabelastningen stiger også, hvilket kræver gigantiske investeringer – det er lig med muligheder for investorer med grøn appetit. Den asiatiske udviklingsbank Asian Development Bank (ADB) har studeret de kapitalbevægelser, der er ind i de asiatiske lande, med fokus på hvilken klimabelastning der følger med, og det kan man beskrive som ”sort” læsning.
Don't fear inflation, fear the source
INFLATION originates from somewhere. That is, there is a reason why inflation occurs. In some cases, it might seem that inflation occurs accidentally. But inflation is, in my opinion, not chaotic in its origins. It almost seemed as if inflation had come under control and yet, there are voiced opinions from several top officials at the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), who still fear that it is not yet under control.
Frygt ikke inflationen, men kilden
21/08/2023 KL. 17:00 For abonnenter Wall Street var begyndt at se enden på den høje inflation, men så kom den amerikanske centralbank med endnu en advarsel. I Eurozonen er der fortsat ikke noget under kontrol. Inflation oprinder fra et sted, altså der er en årsag til, at inflationen opstår. I nogle tilfælde kan det virke. som om inflation opstår ved et tilfælde. Men inflation er efter min mening meget lidt kaotisk i sin oprindelse, og det er principielt godt set ud fra en investors perspektiv.
De kinesiske hovedpiner i Beidaihe
14/08/2023 KL. 17:00 For abonnenter Den sure indenlandske stemning omkring den kinesiske økonomi er tiltaget yderligere i den seneste måned, men måske et nuværende højtstående politisk off-site kan vende den negative spiral. Hvert år i begyndelsen af august finder et af de mest hemmelighedsfulde politiske topmøder sted i Beidaihe. Det er en populær badeby i den kinesiske Hebei-provins, hvor den ultimative top af den kinesiske politiske ledelse mødes.
The Chinese headaches in Beidaihe
The vibrant city, of Sydney, is a place for all. It is full of sophisticated spots like the iconic Opera Houses, inviting beaches, and trendy areas like The Rocks and Darling Harbor. The people of Sydney are known for their fashion-forward attire, British-style sarcasm accompanied by an easy-going attitude. The city is positively brimming with dense bush forests. A 2-hour drive north there is a Hunter Valley which is Australia's oldest wine region, continuously producing delicious wines. 1.
The Chinese headaches in Beidaihe
EACH year in early August, one of the most secretive political top meetings takes place in Beidaihe. It's a popular beach resort in the Chinese Hebei province, where the ultimate top of the Chinese political leadership meets. Nothing is official, not even that the political elite must have their gathering by the seaside. The timing for the very closed political event always remains unknown but when a political quietness surrounds the top, then they most likely are in Beidaihe.
Aktier eller obligationer: Her henter investorerne de næste 10 pct.
07/08/2023 KL. 17:00 For abonnenter De seneste par uger har budt på økonomiske nøgletal, som jeg vurderer, giver anledning til at genoverveje nogle af dette års kursudviklinger i finansmarkederne. De seneste par uger har budt på økonomiske nøgletal, som jeg vurderer, giver anledning til at genoverveje nogle af dette års kursudviklinger i finansmarkederne.
Difficult choice between stocks and bonds
INTERESTINGLY, the biggest gains in stock markets this year mainly took place in countries or areas with the lowest economic growth. It is far from macroeconomic development alone that determines the direction of a stock market but healthy economic growth is a good help. I argue that the biggest risk of this year's price increases in the stock market being lost again is in the eurozone.
Difficult choice between stocks and bonds
INTERESTINGLY, the biggest gains in stock markets this year mainly took place in countries or areas with the lowest economic growth. It is far from macroeconomic development alone that determines the direction of a stock market but healthy economic growth is a good help. I argue that the biggest risk of this year's price increases in the stock market being lost again is in the eurozone.
Mere end agurketid for tysk økonomi
I Tyskland er sommerpausen indtruffet. Udfordringen for Europas største økonomi er, at økonomien også er gået på stand by, men desværre mere varigt.
More than a summer slump in Germany
IN German, the term "Sommerloch" is used for what some call a "summer slump." We know this summer gap occurs every year, and investors also retreat a bit into the shade. This year, "das Sommerloch" in Germany is, unfortunately, more than just temporary when it comes to the economy. The German economy is in bad shape and risks dropping into a hole, which may surprise some investors.
Verdens største motor stopper ikke
24/07/2023 KL. 16:30 For abonnenter Flertallet af økonomerne på Wall Street har siden nytår forudsagt en amerikansk recession i år, og en del holder fast i forventningerne. Jeg tvivler fortsat på den forudsigelse... Den vedvarende diskussion om den amerikanske økonomis helbred, og retningen på aktiemarkedet finder jeg usædvanligt interessant. Det usædvanlige og det interessante består i den vedvarende spaltning i finansmarkedet, om hvorvidt der i år i USA kommer en recession eller ej.
Greenflation will be honey for investors
THERE is no doubt that green investing is a theme that is growing in many ways for just about every investor. The whole development within sustainable investments, green investments, renewable energy, and the like, I regard, is still in its infancy. Some consequences of climate change can probably already be felt in the form of more volatile weather.
Den politiske storm om Kina blæser aktiekurser ud af kurs
12/07/2023 KL. 13:00 For abonnenter Kinesiske aktier startede godt ud med store stigninger først på året, men siden har retningen været en ganske anden trods en stigende optimisme blandt forbrugerne. Starten på 2022 så godt ud for Kinas økonomi, hvor den officielle forventning var en bnp-vækst på 5,0 pct., mens den generelle vurdering lå omkring 4,5 pct. i gennemsnit.
China's sudden headwind
THE start of 2023 looked good for China's economy, where the official expectation was gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.0 percent though the general assessment was probably 4.5 percent on average. It was in line with the rest of Asia (excluding Japan) and thus somewhat brighter prospects than for the US, where a possible recession this year is an eternal discussion, and the eurozone that had already moved into a kind of zero growth.
Økonomisk duel: Miami versus Manila
Det er fascinerende, at to metropoler i to helt forskellige tidszoner kan virke så sammenlignelige, men den hastige udligning i købekraft og levestandard er endnu mere imponerende.
Miami versus Manila
OVER the years, professional coincidences have meant that I have had the pleasure of visiting Miami in Florida, USA quite a few times. The other day, my arrival in the American "Sunshine State" gave rise to drawing parallels to another place that I also visit regularly for professional reasons: Manila in the Philippines. At first glance, one would think that it is impossible to draw meaningful economic parallels between these two metropolises, but the realities are interesting.
Masser af inspiration i finansmarkedet
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The rate hikes never stop
THIS week, the US central bank confirmed that more rate hikes would be coming though the fear was already spreading in financial markets since early June. The reason is due to one particular number from the latest labor market data released on Friday, June 2. Namely, the 339,000 new jobs created outside the agricultural sector during the month of May. Basically, it is positive that the economy is growing where newly created jobs are a clear indicator.
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