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Articles by Muhammad Rafi Bakri
It’s time to mandate environment spending in Indonesia
Indonesia’s flash floods in Sumatra are not merely natural disasters; they are also symptomatic of fiscal failure. While rescue teams battled torrents of mud, a quieter tragedy unfolded in the budget books. Disaster mitigation funding was systematically crowded out by competing political agendas. It signals a concerning reality that, within Indonesia’s current fiscal hierarchy, resilience appears expendable until a disaster hits. The crisis extends far beyond emergency response budgets.
Indonesia’s New Bottom Line: Politics, Planet and People
Introduction Stepping into 2025 means we only have less than five years left to achieve the ambitious targets of the SDGs. With so many uncertainties, a question remains: Can we really meet these goals or will we fall short doing so, thus leaving humanity to face the consequences of inaction? To recapitulate, the world is drastically off course in achieving the 2030 target.
Reforming Institutions for Better Fiscal, Not Higher Rates
As the sun sets on 2024, the Indonesian government charts a new fiscal course by raising the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 12 percent that effective on January 1, 2025. Framed as the torchbearer of the Tax Harmonization Law’s (UU HPP) mandate, this increase is seen as a lifeline for a tax ratio struggling to stay afloat. This decision signals a bold yet controversial attempt to navigate through the nation’s growing budget needs.
The risks of bringing informal businesses into formal economy
resident Prabowo Subianto has a game-changing plan up his sleeve: bringing the underground economy out into the open and making it pay its dues. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati highlighted the government’s intention to tap into the vast, untaxed potential of the underground economy at a recent meeting with the House of Representatives.
Prabowo’s bloated cabinet: Beware of political ‘cholesterol’
ewly inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto has announced his Red and White Cabinet lineup, which includes 48 ministers, 56 deputy ministers and a number of government agency heads. Amid the excitement, there are growing concerns about the size of his cabinet. Prabowo’s decision to expand the number of ministries and create new agencies has been met with enthusiastic support from his political allies, many of whom are eager to secure influential roles in his administration.
The shadows of fraud loom over Indonesia’s defense
n Oct. 5, we bestowed our highest honor upon the Indonesian Military (TNI), which has steadfastly served as a robust defender of the nation's sovereignty for 79 years. The TNI stands as an unyielding force, protecting the borders, restoring peace and guiding the nation toward greatness. While the echoes of military parades still linger in the air, there is no room for prolonged celebration. The TNI must remain vigilant, for beneath the surface of national pride lies a silent enemy, defense fraud.
Indonesia's Vulnerable Cybersecurity Puts SIPD at Risk
Authors: Muhammad Rafi Bakri and Rifky Pratama Wicaksono* The National Data Center (PDN) ransomware attack in Indonesia at 20th June has had a detrimental impact on various ministries/institutions, stalling the business process. One consequence of this incident is that passport checks at airports are becoming more difficult due to data issues.
Family Office for the Ultra-Rich People: Why not Tax Them?
Authors: Muhammad Rafi Bakri and Nabila Qurota Annisa* As the leadership era came to a close, Mr Joko Widodo still proposed some controversial policies. The Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, has clarified that the government is currently reviewing the establishment of a family office, a practice commonly seen in advanced countries.
Debt cancellation not a cure-all for debt-distressed Asia
The Paris Club, an informal forum of 22 creditor nations that deals with debtor countries’ payment difficulties, reached a consensus in March 2024 on debt cancellation for Somalia under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. This treatment reduced over US$2 billion, 99 per cent of Somalia’s total debt owed to Paris Club creditors. This debt cancellation may have implications for debt-distressed developing economies in Asia.
Chinese cash paves the way for complicated Cambodian development
In May 2024, Cambodia renamed one of the major roads in the capital city of Phnom Penh the ‘Xi Jinping Boulevard’. The occasion highlighted the prominent role of China’s ample economic and political support for Cambodia’s development. While their relationship has aided Cambodian growth and stability, some underlying issues remain. China has significantly boosted the funding of Cambodia’s development infrastructure.
All eyes on Nusantara
Jakarta is exhausted from carrying the burden of being Indonesia’s capital city. With a population that reached 10.6 million in 2022, the city struggles with overcrowding in its 661.5 square kilometres. Indonesia passed legislation in 2022 mandating the relocation of the capital to Nusantara. According to research by the National Development Planning Agency, shifting the capital city to Nusantara will benefit the national economy by contributing to a 0.1 per cent rise in GDP.
Indonesia needs to look ahead after securing new submarines
After a time-consuming negotiation process and extensive consideration, Indonesia finally decided to acquire two lithium ion batteries-equipped submarines from French manufacturer Naval Group in April 2024 to strengthen the Indonesian Navy’s submarine fleet. The evolved Scorpene-class submarines will be built at PT PAL Indonesia’s shipyard in Surabaya in collaboration with Naval Group and are expected to take five to seven years to be completed once the contract becomes effective.
Hun Manet fishing for increased FDI
Hun Manet took over as the prime minister of Cambodia after his father, Hun Sen, transferred power to him in October 2023. Since then, he has actively engaged in diplomatic relations, focusing on economic diplomacy. But Manet is in a challenging position, as Cambodia is projected to graduate from its least developed country status by 2027 and aims to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2030. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is critical for economic growth in developing countries like Cambodia.
Indonesia still searching for an answer to its housing crisis
The high demand for housing is not being met in Indonesia due to a lack of supply. For Indonesian people, a house can only be a house if it is on the ground — not in a flat or apartment. This increases market demand for land and property, which drives prices to increase. But rising prices are not being matched by proportionate income increases. In response to this difficulty, the Indonesian government established the Public Housing Savings Management Agency — Tapera — in 2016.
OECD accession forces Indonesia’s hand on integrity
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) promotes economic growth, trade and cooperation among its member countries. For Indonesia, OECD accession would be a significant step toward alignment with best-practice global governance and economic cooperation principles. The OECD’s rigorous standards and norms are critical in promoting transparency, accountability and ethical behaviour in member countries’ public policies.
Prabowo bites off more than he can chew with free lunch promise
The landslide victory of Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s 14 February 2024 presidential election has been been confirmed, with Subianto officially declared president-elect by the General Election Commission on 20 March. Prabowo has proposed eight major programs as part of his election manifesto, but a free lunch program for students in Indonesia is his flagship proposal.
Can Marape fashion stability in PNG?
When the Papua New Guinean (PNG) parliament convened on 13 February 2024, the opposition submitted a notice for vote of no confidence against Prime Minister James Marape, naming East Sepik Governor Allan Bird as an alternate prime minister. The government is seeking a Supreme Court interpretation of the Constitution on whether the prime minister candidate is restricted to party leaders or Members of Parliament (MPs) affiliated to a political party. Allan Bird is an independent MP.
Brunei’s stagnant economy is ripe for change
Brunei’s post-pandemic recovery has been weaker than expected. The economy grew only marginally in 2023 — after contracting the previous two years — with the level of output lower than a decade ago. The economic stagnation raises questions about Brunei’s future prosperity. The hydrocarbon-based economic model, which has served the country well for decades, is ripe for change. Brunei’s economy has struggled to recover despite the country’s success in managing the COVID-19 pandemic.
Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis worsens under military rule
In the third year under military rule, Myanmar faced greater socioeconomic hardship caused by intensified conflict across the country, severe macroeconomic instability and natural disasters in 2023. The UN estimated that 18.6 million people — one-third of the population — will likely be in need of humanitarian aid in 2024. This figure includes almost 2.6 million people who are internally displaced as of January.
Malaysia must take bold economic action
The Malaysian economy has proved its resilience yet again, achieving a growth rate of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. Though this was a reasonable rate given the rather tepid global environment, it was only marginally larger than the 2.9 per cent that was marked for the second quarter of 2023. Malaysia’s focus extends beyond the pace of its growth. There has been disquiet on the economic front even as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration has tried to keep the coalition going.
Democracy can be an asset to Indonesia’s economic transformation
Leaving aside the genuine concerns about the quality of democracy in Indonesia, there’s no denying that there’s still a tremendous quantity of it. On 14 February almost 205 million enrolled voters — half of them under 40 — will have the opportunity not just to elect a president to replace Joko Widodo (Jokowi), but to choose between candidates from 18 national parties (plus 6 local parties in the province of Aceh) competing for over 20,000 seats in national, provincial and municipal legislatures.
Prabowo aims for a hole in one in this week’s Indonesian elections
As Indonesians prepare to cast votes for a new president on 14 February, the question isn’t whether Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto will win, but how. Prabowo and his running mate, President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, need to get above 50 per cent of the vote to avoid a late June runoff with the second-placed candidate. Opinion polls put them just above this threshold, or tantalisingly close to it.
India should leverage FTAs to induce FDI flows
Across 2021 and 2022, India signed three free trade agreements (FTAs) with Mauritius, the United Arab Emirates and Australia. India’s FTA negotiations with the European Union and the United Kingdom are also at an advanced stage. These FTAs have considerable significance for the Indian economy as the country aspires to become a leader in the global trade ecosystem by achieving an export target of US$2 trillion by 2030.
Sri Lanka stuck in choppy political and economic waters
In 2023, Sri Lanka faced a complex interplay of economic and political challenges. Although fuel and food queues have disappeared, the dire impact of the economic crisis was inescapable. Sri Lanka’s economic outlook was initially grim, with a 3.1 per cent GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2023 and a projected 2 per cent shrinkage for the year. The first quarter saw an alarming 11.5 per cent contraction, highlighting the severity of the crisis.
Indonesia fortifies financial resilience ahead of election
When the deadline for Indonesian presidential and vice presidential nominations closed on October 25 2023, three pairs were left to contest for seats. The impact of the election and the policy direction taken by the successful candidates will need to be carefully managed through financial and monetary policy. Elections impact several components of Indonesia’s gross domestic product. In 2019, consumption increased until one quarter before the election in May, after which it dropped.
E-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana
This study analyzes the impact of government debt contributed to the economic growth in Indonesia over the period 2005 to 2020. We employ the ordinary least square (OLS) approach to see if other factors like government funding, government investment, inflation, and budget spending have an effect on economic growth. The findings show that government debt does not have a significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia.
ANALISIS PENGARUH OPINI, TEMUAN DAN KARAKTERISTIK DAERAH TERHADAP KINERJA KEUANGAN PROVINSI JAMBI
Financial performance is an indicator in determining the performance of local governments in managing regional finances. This study aims to empirically measure the effect of audit opinions and audit findings by BPK RI and regional characteristics on the financial performance of Jambi Province. Regional characteristics that become variables in this study are the level of independence and dependence on the central government.
PPh ATAU PPN: MENAKAR KEBIJAKAN PERPAJAKAN TERHADAP CRYPTOCURRENCY DI INDONESIA
Abstract Cryptocurrency is a blockchain-based technology that is being used for any activity so that it has the potential to increase state revenue, primarily from taxation. This study aims to measure what kind of tax policy can be applied to cryptocurrencies in Indonesia. This research uses a descriptive qualitative method using secondary data. Secondary data was obtained through journals, books, and tax laws.
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