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Articles by Rick Lucks
8 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Rick Lucks' 2026 Picks
Rick Lucks' 8 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Roman Anthony, Matt Strahm, Luis Robert Jr., and more. Welcome to another round of MLB Bold Predictions from the MLB RotoBaller team! Several of my colleagues have already published some of their boldest takes, and now it's my turn to ramp up the boldness. Notably, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes.
All Positions (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF) (2026)
MY ACCOUNT | LogoutRegisterMy AccountUpgrade Receive free daily analysis Already have an account? Log In POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS Premium Tools Expert Advice Draft Kit Articles & Tools Team Sync Import Your Leagues Rankings Wizard Draft Rankings Mock Drafts Tool Draft Simulator Draft Cheat Sheet Enter League Settings Who Should I Draft?
Undrafted Players (2026)
Rick's deeper starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers, later-round picks going mostly undrafted in 2026 drafts. His favorite SP fliers for the end of drafts. Fantasy managers can bank on undrafted pitchers coming out of nowhere to post outstanding seasons, but identifying who will do so is challenging. Standard roto leagues draft 336 players, so anyone with an NFBC average draft position (ADP) of 337 or higher is considered "undrafted" for this article. Naturally, individual drafts may vary.
High-Upside Catchers (2026)
Rick's high-upside outfield breakout candidates, sneaky 2026 later-round draft values to outperform their ADPs. Draft the next fantasy baseball breakouts including Samuel Basallo, Carter Jensen, Harry Ford, more Catchers are the bane of every fantasy manager's existence. They rarely produce like other position players and require far more off days. Many formats also need two, doubling the pain and suffering associated with the position.
Sabermetrics Glossary: Explaining Key Stats for Fantasy Baseball (2026)
MY ACCOUNT | LogoutRegisterMy AccountUpgrade Receive free daily analysis Already have an account? Log In POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS Premium Tools Expert Advice Premium DFS Articles & Tools Team Sync Import Your Leagues Fantasy Scoreboard Daily Stats & Leaders Starts and Sits All Pitcher Matchups Trade Analyzer Compare Any Players Who Should I Start?
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Carter Jensen and Nolan McLean
Are Carter Jensen and Nolan McLean fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. We've reached September, and any reinforcements for real and fantasy teams have to come from the minors. There's still plenty of time for rookies to make an impact, so don't give up on your baseball teams just because football is starting. Carter Jensen is a 22-year-old catcher with an intriguing skill set.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Jakob Marsee and Ryan Helsley
Are Jakob Marsee and Ryan Helsley fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. In baseball, opportunities are a zero-sum game. Events like the trade deadline don't create opportunities since there are still no more than 90 starting outfielders and 30 closing gigs. For every player who gains an opportunity, another loses it. Astute fantasy managers need to pounce on new opportunities while casting the losers aside.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Jake Mangum and Kyle Stowers
Are Jake Mangum and Kyle Stowers fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. Fantasy managers care about prospect pedigree when evaluating young players, and many top prospects go on to have great careers. However, we have to remember that pedigree is not essential for fantasy production. Whit Merrifield was never a huge prospect and still put up quality fantasy seasons.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: David Peterson and Jacob Misiorowski
Are David Peterson and Jacob Misiorowski fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. All-Stars aren't a fantasy category, but it still feels great when your roster has more than your rivals. Granted, all All-Stars aren't equal for this purpose. If Aaron Judge didn't perform like an All-Star, his fantasy managers would likely be in trouble.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Cam Schlittler and Ronny Henriquez
Are Cam Schlittler and Ronny Henriquez fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. You never have enough pitching. It's one of the greatest truisms of fantasy baseball, and the game has a habit of hitting you hardest when you least expect it. The Rays are already limiting Drew Rasmussen by using him as an opener a couple times through the rotation, with other names like Kris Bubic and Clay Holmes likely to be limited soon as well.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Colton Gordon and Jordan Beck
Are Colton Gordon and Jordan Beck fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. Fantasy analysts try to guess who might be available on your waiver wire, but every league is different. One of your rivals might drop someone you view as a potential All-Star, and you'll miss out on a huge opportunity if you aren't vigilant about checking your league's transaction wire.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Garrett Whitlock, Shelby Miller, Chase Burns
Are Garrett Whitlock, Shelby Miller, and Chase Burns fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. Every fantasy manager wants quality pitching, but many overlook potential sources of it. The bidding for top prospect Chase Burns is likely to be intense now that the Reds have announced he's making his MLB debut tonight, and his upside is unreal.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Roman Anthony and Rafael Devers
Are Roman Anthony and Rafael Devers fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. What is going on in Boston right now? Boston's front office wanted to see top prospect Roman Anthony in the Show, so they asked Rafael Devers to try to learn first base to accommodate him. Communication between Devers and the team had deteriorated after the Alex Bregman signing, and Devers refused to learn 1B midseason.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Kyle Teel and Noah Cameron
Are Kyle Teel and Noah Cameron fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. There are two rules all fantasy managers quickly learn. First, you're never completely happy with your catcher(s). Second, you never have enough pitching. You'll spend a lot of time staring at both positions regardless of how you approach them on draft day. Luckily, you might find decent options in both spots on your waiver wire.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Jacob Melton, Daniel Palencia, Jac Caglianone
Are Jacob Melton, Daniel Palencia, and Jac Caglianone fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. We've officially reached June, and that means your league's standings page starts to matter. No lead in any stat is "safe" with more than half the season to go, but you can identify areas of opportunity for improvement. How are you on steals? What about saves? Do you need power?
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Drake Baldwin and Marcelo Mayer
Are Drake Baldwin and Marcelo Mayer fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. In This Article hide Just when you think the prospect pipeline might dry up for a week, the Red Sox bring up Marcelo Mayer to play third base. Mayer has a lot of hype surrounding him, but is he the savior that Boston and fantasy managers have been searching for?
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Dalton Rushing and Logan Henderson
Are Dalton Rushing and Logan Henderson fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value. In This Article hide Midway through May, the minors continue to supply fantasy managers with intriguing options. The Dodgers have summoned Dalton Rushing to serve as their backup catcher. The 24-year-old has an interesting skill set, but will he have the opportunity to show what he can do?
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Jordan Lawlar
Is Jordan Lawlar a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into his 2025 fantasy baseball value. In This Article hide MLB Pipeline updated its prospect rankings, and Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Jordan Lawlar sits fourth on the top-100 list. The Diamondbacks announced they were calling Lawlar up shortly thereafter, and it makes you wonder if the two events are related. Regardless, this is the first major in-season call-up for fantasy baseball managers.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Edgar Quero and Jackson Jobe
Are Edgar Quero and Jackson Jobe fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball values. It's easy for fantasy managers to fall in love with a prospect's scouting report. They seem authoritative, especially if multiple scouting reports say the same thing. We generally don't see minor leaguers play that often, so scouting grades are all we have. Except they aren't.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Nick Kurtz and Sandy Alcantara
Are Nick Kurtz and Sandy Alcantara fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball values. Fantasy managers need diverse skill sets to succeed in today's game. Top prospects can make a huge fantasy impact, but even mediocre names are frequently hyped up, and prospect lists don't emphasize the same need for immediate gratification that fantasy managers do. Is Nick Kurtz worthy of a roster spot?
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Agustin Ramirez and Chandler Simpson
Are Agustin Ramirez and Chandler Simpson fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball values. Prospect callups are frequently among the most exciting events in fantasy baseball, and MLB clubs have started bringing up exciting names. Marlins catcher Agustin Ramirez went 20/20 with an advanced plate approach on the farm in 2024, and he's a catcher. Sort of. His defense is atrocious, and that could be a good thing for his short-term fantasy value.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Jonathan Aranda and Kyren Paris
Are Jonathan Aranda and Kyren Paris fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball values. Second base felt like a weak position during draft season, but the waiver wire seems full of intriguing options. In Week 1, we looked at Kristian Campbell. In Week 2, we profiled Jonathan India. This week, two more interesting names are Jonathan Aranda and Kyren Paris. Neither is a household name, but both are off to strong starts. Each has a bugaboo as well.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Dennis Santana, Jonathan India, Clay Holmes
Are Dennis Santana, Jonathan India, and Clay Holmes fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball values. We've reached the second week of the 2025 MLB season, and as expected, Rafael Devers is not the worst player in the league. Players have twice as many games played (or more) than they did this time last week, but we're still working with tiny samples. You shouldn't blindly overreact to this season's stat lines.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Seth Halvorsen, Otto Lopez, Kristian Campbell
In This Article hide The 2025 fantasy baseball season is officially underway, and that means another season of Champ or Chump. This column is a deep dive into one to three players per week, looking at prospect pedigree, MiLB performance, Statcast data, role, peripherals, team context, and more. At the end of our analysis, we determine whether each player is a Champ or Chump relative to their roster rate on Yahoo! leagues.
What Is Statcast Pitch Tracking? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
Welcome, RotoBallers, to our overview of Statcast Pitch Tracking. This article is a deeper dive into Statcast Pitch Tracking and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore how to interpret the Statcast Pitch Tracking table and how it can help place Pitch Info in context. Of course, we'll use common terminology and specific examples to make the information easier to grasp.
Interpreting Foreign League Statistics - Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball (2025)
Welcome, RotoBallers, to our primer on interpreting foreign league statistics. This article is a deeper dive into how to interpret foreign statistics and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll focus on statistics from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB).
Statcast Contact Quality for Pitchers - Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball (2025)
Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of Statcast contact quality metrics for pitchers. This article is a deeper dive into the predictive value of metrics such as Brls/BBE and average airborne exit velocity (EV) for pitchers, and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll discover which pitchers led MLB in barrels allowed, Brls/BBE, and average airborne EV in 2024.
What Are Statcast xStats? Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball (2025)
Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of Statcast Expected Statistics (xStats). This article is a deeper dive into xStats and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explain what Statcast's xStats are and how they work in layman's terms anyone can understand. We'll also look at how well xStats predicted sleepers and busts last season.
What Is Spin Rate for Pitchers? Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball (2025)
Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of Spin Rate. This article is a deeper dive into spin rate and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore the benefits of high and low-spin fastballs and identify which secondaries are more effective with more or less spin using everyday terminology and real-world examples. We'll also look at Active Spin and how it can render raw spin measurements misleading.
What Is Barrel Rate, Brls/BBE? Sabermetrics Fantasy Baseball (2025)
In This Article hide Welcome, RotoBallers, to our overview of Barrels for fantasy baseball. This article is a deeper dive into MLB advanced stat called "Barrels" and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll define Barrels in layman's terms and discover how great they are for hitters. We'll also explore how looking at Barrels as the rate stat, Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE), can be a great tool for identifying sleepers.
What Are Pitching+, Stuff+, Location+? Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball
In This Article hide Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of Pitching+. This article is a deeper dive into Pitching+ and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore what Pitching+ is and how to use it for fantasy analysis. We'll also look at its underlying components, Stuff+ and Location+, in plain terminology anyone can understand. Finally, we'll use the Pitching+ leaderboard to try and find some sleepers.
What Is Exit Velocity (EV)? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
Welcome, RotoBallers, to our overview of exit velocity (EV) for hitters. This article is a deeper dive into EV, and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore how EV can be used to predict BABIP and HR/FB using simple terminology anyone can understand. We'll also look at other factors that may trump EV when predicting player performance.
Interpreting Minor League Sats (MiLB) for Fantasy Baseball: Sabermetrics Analysis
Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of minor league (MiLB) statistics. This article is a deeper dive into MiLB stats and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore the predictive power of numbers on the farm, including how to deal with small MiLB sample sizes and when to anticipate regression. Of course, we'll stick to plain terminology that anyone can understand.
Rick Lucks' 10 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions
Welcome back RotoBallers to another edition from our yearly Bold Predictions series from the MLB team. It's one of the most exciting times of the fantasy baseball calendar: bold prediction season! As a reminder, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes but long shots with a purpose. These predictions, in particular, all do one of two things. If a player has an early ADP, I'll call out why he's too expensive with a worst-case scenario.
What Are Ballpark Factors? Sabermetrics Glossary for Fantasy Baseball
In This Article hide Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of ballpark factors. This article is a deeper dive into ballpark factors and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore how unique MLB parks influence a player's performance for fantasy purposes. Most people associate ballpark factors with home runs, but we'll look at how and why stadiums affect virtually every number fantasy managers care about.
How Important Is Batting Order for Fantasy Baseball? Sabermetrics Overview
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What Is Pitch Info? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
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What Is Pull%? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
In This Article hide Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of Pull%. This article is a deeper dive into Pull% and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore how Pull% works including the benefits of pulling fly balls and the downsides of pulling grounders using easy language anybody can understand. We'll also see why raw Pull% is useless without batted ball type.
What is BABIP (for Pitchers)? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of BABIP (for pitchers). This article is a deeper dive into pitcher BABIP, and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explain what pitchers can do to control their BABIP and explore how a club's defenders may influence BABIPs allowed using easily understandable terminology. You can find our entire sabermetrics glossary, which includes links to many other sabermetric stats as part of this series.
What are FIP and xFIP? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
In This Article hide Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching). This article is a deeper dive into FIP/xFIP and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explore how to separate a pitcher's performance from his supporting cast and luck using metrics on the same scale as the familiar earned run average (ERA).
What is Plate Discipline (SwStr% and O-Swing%)? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
Welcome, RotoBallers, to our overview of plate discipline. This article is a deeper dive into plate discipline, and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll look at how to predict K% and BB% using advanced plate discipline stats such as swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) and chase rate (O-Swing%) in plain terminology anyone can understand.
What Is Batted Ball Distribution? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
Welcome, RotoBallers, to our overview of batted ball distribution, or a batter's rates of grounders (GB%), flies (FB%), and line drives (LD%). This article is a deeper dive into batted ball distribution, and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball." In this article, we'll explain the differences between grounders, flies, and liners in terms anyone should understand. We'll begin with an examination of how fantastic liners are for hitters.
What is HR/FB Rate? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
NFL MLB NBA PGA NHL Logan Thompson2 hours ago Stands Tall On Tuesday Andrei Svechnikov2 hours ago Tallies Three Points In Victory Kyle Connor2 hours ago Scores Twice On Tuesday JJ Peterka2 hours ago Scores Hat Trick In Victory Over Boston Tage Thompson3 hours ago Tallies Hat Trick In Victory Miro Heiskanen3 hours ago Exits Early On Tuesday Sam Burns10 hours ago In Great Form Ahead Of Pebble Beach Hideki Matsuyama10 hours ago Looks To Stay Hot At Pebble Beach Dejounte Murray13 hours ago Tagged...
What is BABIP (for Batters)? Sabermetrics Glossary, Definition, Meaning
Welcome RotoBallers to our overview of BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for hitters. This article is a deeper dive into BABIP for batters, and is part of our ongoing series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball". In this article we'll explain what BABIP is, specifically for hitters, and provide a definition that is hopefully easy for anyone to understand. We'll also explain how to utilize BABIP for fantasy baseball and improve your fantasy baseball analysis skills.
Sabermetrics Overview: Explaining Key Stats for Fantasy Baseball (2025)
Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. Today's article is an initial overview of sabermetrics and key stats for fantasy baseball -- we will also be going through some of the individual stats below, and publishing separate deep-dive articles for those stats as part of this series "Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball".
Rick Lucks' 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions Reviewed
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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Tylor Megill and JJ Bleday (2024)
What Appears In This Article? hide We're down to the final two weeks of the fantasy baseball season. If your standings are close (or you're in the playoffs of a H2H league), any decision could make or break your year. You should do your homework for the best chance at success, but don't beat yourself up if things go awry. Remember, fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. Your waiver wire probably looks bleak, especially if you focus on surface stats.
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper or Bust: Rhett Lowder (2024)
What Appears In This Article? hide Have you heard? A dominant college pitcher was taken in the 2023 Draft's first round. Scouts loved his stuff and control, and he was expected to advance quickly. He debuted in the NL Central this season, and his career is off to a solid start with an ERA of 0.87. That sounds like we're talking about Paul Skenes, but we're not. Rhett Lowder was taken seventh overall and would have much more prospect buzz if Skenes wasn't in the same class.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Kyle Manzardo and David Peterson (2024)
What Appears In This Article? hide The calendar flipped to September, so it's crunch time in fantasy baseball. Choosing the wrong stream or rostering an unproductive player could make the difference between winning or losing your league. If you need a bat, Kyle Manzardo possesses solid skills for the stretch run. However, he may be the wrong fit depending on your needs. David Peterson's numbers look appealing, but a closer look suggests you're playing with fire if you start him.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts: Connor Norby and Dylan Crews (2024)
What Appears In This Article? hide Why do people love lists so much? MLB.com ranks the top 30 prospects in every organization plus an overall top 100, making it sound like everyone is a huge prospect. Most prospect lists are also agnostic of time, making it difficult to know if someone is expected to be great right away or struggle for a few years. The recent Connor Norby trade illustrates this. Norby was ranked as the No.3 prospect in Miami's system post-trade, suggesting a solid prospect pedigree.
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