Writer at @baseballpro. Decrepit triathlete. Finger Lakes wine evangelist. Opinions mine, especially the stupid ones.
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Articles by Rob Mains
Has The Zombie Runner Ruined the Pythagorean Winning Percentage?
On May 18, the Mets and Nationals were tied after nine innings in Washington, 5-5. Neither team scored in the tenth and both scored a run in the 11th. The Mets exploded for 10 runs in the top of the twelfth, and the Nationals came up with only one in the home half of the inning. The Mets won, 16-7. On August 5, the Nationals and Phillies were tied 3-3 at Citizens Bank Park after nine innings. Each team’s zombie runner scored in the tenth inning. In the top of the eleventh, Washington scored six runs.
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A week ago last Thursday, the Guardians beat the White Sox, 9-5. The game took three hours and thirty-nine minutes to complete. That made it the fourth-longest nine-inning postseason game, and second-longest AL Division Series game, since the pitch clock was implemented in 2023.
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Tampa Bay Rays (1) at Cleveland Guardians (2), 1:00 PM ET TB: Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.53 ERA, 81 DRA-) CLE: Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA, 69 DRA-) This has been a rough postseason for legendary pitchers. Last year's World Series MVP, Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
NLCS Game 3 Preview: Brewers vs. Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers (1) at Los Angeles Dodgers (2), 8:00 PM ET MIL: LHP Robert Gasser (5-5, 3.87 ERA, 118 DRA-) LAD: LHP Blake Snell (4-1, 1.90 ERA, 82 DRA-) This should be a mismatch. Gasser was third on the Brewers with 20 starts, but as his DRA- and 4.26 FIP illustrate, he’s been good, not great, in his first year back from UCL repair. His career total in starts is just 27.
El mes que fue: septiembre de 2026
Traducido por José M. Hernández Lagunes En esta serie, analizamos las principales tendencias de la MLB en cuanto a anotación de carreras, pitcheo de jugadores de posición, lesiones, bases robadas, tiempo de juego y el sistema automatizado de cantado de bolas y strikes ABS. Es un análisis mensual para identificar las tendencias estacionales. NL Oeste G P Pct. JD Padres 18 6 .750 — Dodgers 18 7 .720 0.5 Diamondback 13 10 .565 4.5 Giants 8 16 .333 10.0 Rockies 6 18 .250 12.0 NL Central G P Pct.
The Vogelsong Awards: September
This monthly award is named in honor of Ryan Vogelsong who, in 2011: Had a 2.71 ERA, fourth in the National League, and a 3.63 FIP Tied for the 12th most wins in the league and the seventh best winning percentage Was an All-Star (didn’t appear) and tied for 11th in the Cy Young (one fifth-place vote) Did not appear in the Baseball Prospectus Annual For more detail on the award, click here. The Vogelsong Award goes to the best player and pitcher who were given little or no attention in the Annual.
The Month That Was: September 2026
A look at the league-wide trends hidden inside the seasonal statistics.
NLDS Game 3 Preview: Dodgers vs. Braves
Finally, the aces.
NLDS Game 3 Preview: Brewers vs Padres
Milwaukee Brewers (1) at San Diego Padres (4), 9:30 PM EDT MIL: RHP Dustin May (7-9, 4.70 ERA, 97 DRA-; 2-2, 5.65 ERA, 101 DRA- with Milwaukee), SDP: RHP Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 92 DRA-) May, for once healthy, posted career highs in starts, 31, and innings, 145⅔. The latter figure, equal to 4.7 innings per start, is the fewest innings pitched ever by a pitcher with that many starts.
ALDS Game 2 Preview: Yankees vs. Rays
New York Yankees (3) at Tampa Bay Rays (1), 8:00 PM EDT NYY: RHP Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA, 66 DRA-), TB: RHP Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA, 108 DRA- but 5-2, 3.25 ERA, 112 DRA- with Tampa Bay) There was a time when, if you’d said that Tampa Bay with Drew Rasmussen on the mound had beat the Yankees, who started Gerrit Cole, in the first game of a playoff series, you’d think the Yankees were in trouble. I mean, Rasmussen, fine pitcher, but Cole is the $36 million staff ace, right?
ALDS Game 2 Preview: White Sox vs. Guardians
Chicago White Sox (4) at Cleveland Guardians (2), 5:00 PM EDT CHW: LHP Anthony Kay (10-9, 4.44 ERA, 126 DRA-) followed by RHP Sean Burke (11-7, 3.34 ERA, 97 DRA-), CLE: RHP Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA, 69 DRA-) Once again, Chicago is starting a left-hander against the Guardians, whose OPS against southpaws was 31 points lower (.675) than against righties (.706). They’ll be happy to get three innings out of Kay, who threw an inning and a third in Saturday’s game.
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In 2016, I dusted off Bill James's "World Series Prediction System," which James developed in 1972 and introduced to a wider audience in Inside Sports in 1982 and the 1984 Bill James Baseball Abstract. The system from the 1984 Abstract was: Give the team with the better record one point for each half-game difference in won-lost percentage.
Si la MLB fuese la NFL
Traducido por Miguel Boada Nájera Lo escuchamos todo el tiempo cuando se habla de la temporada de beisbol: es un maratón, no un sprint.* La temporada de beisbol es la más larga en los deportes profesionales de conjunto de los Estados Unidos. Pero no tiene por qué ser así.
If MLB Were the NFL
You hear it all the time about the baseball season: It’s a marathon, not a sprint.* The baseball season is the longest one in American team sports. But it doesn’t have to be that way. There are always calls for a shorter season, and not only from people who don’t like baseball, or think playing spring games when there’s still snow on the ground is dumb, or having the playoffs stretch into November is dumber. There’s nothing that makes 162 games sacrosanct other than tradition and revenues per game.
Corporativo Bravos de Atlanta: ¿Bárbaros en los jardines?
Traducido por José M. Hernández Lagunes El lunes, la firma de inversión Beach Inlet Capital Management envió (y divulgó públicamente) una carta al Consejo de Administración de Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., la empresa que cotiza en bolsa y es propietaria de los Bravos. En ella, Beach Inlet instaba a la empresa a vender el equipo. Más adelante, analizaré la justificación de Beach Inlet, que resulta algo interesante, pero primero, veamos qué pretende.
¿Cerrar sin hacer ruido es tan bueno como hacerlo con estruendo?
Traducido por Miguel Boada Nájera Estamos llegando a los últimos días de la temporada 2026. Solo dos líderes divisionales tienen una ventaja menor a cuatro juegos. Los Padres y los Diamondbacks se están dando con todo por el último puesto de Comodín de la Liga Nacional. En la Liga Americana se vive una carrera similar con Cleveland, Toronto y Texas. Así que, parece, se tendrá poco drama. Pero todos los equipos que están en camino a jugar en octubre ya están pensando en lo que viene.
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On Monday, an investment firm, Beach Inlet Capital Management, sent (and publicly disclosed) a letter to the Board of Directors of Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc., the publicly-traded company that owns the Braves. In it, Beach Inlet urged the company to sell the ballclub.
El mes que fue: agosto de 2026
Traducido por Carlos Marcano En esta serie, revisamos las tendencias clave de la MLB en carreras anotadas, jugadores de posición lanzando, lesiones, bases robadas, tiempo de juego y cantado automatizado de bolas y strikes (ABS). Este es un examen mes a mes para aislar las tendencias estacionales. Equipo G P Pct. JD San Diego Padres 17 11 .607 — Arizona Diamondbacks 15 14 .517 2½ Los Angeles Dodgers 13 14 .481 3½ San Francisco Giants 10 18 .357 7.0 Colorado Rockies 9 19 .321 8.0 Equipo G P Pct.
Is A Whimper as Good as a Bang?
We’re down to the final days of the 2026 season. The leaders of only two divisions hold a lead of fewer than four games. The Padres and Diamondbacks are duking it out for the final National League Wild Card spot. The similar race in the American League is down to Cleveland, Toronto, and Texas. So, it would seem, the drama is limited. But every team in line to play for October is looking ahead.
The Month That Was: August 2026
In this series, we’re checking in on key MLB trends in scoring, position player pitching, injuries, stolen bases, time of game, and ABS. This is a month-by-month examination in order to isolate seasonal trends.
The Two Important Numbers from the Angels Sale
$4 billion divided by $183.5 million is not one of them.
The Vogelsong Awards: July
This monthly award is named in honor of Ryan Vogelsong who, in 2011: Had a 2.71 ERA, fourth in the National League, and a 3.63 FIP Tied for the 12th most wins in the league and the seventh best winning percentage Was an All-Star (didn’t appear) and tied for 11th in the Cy Young (one fifth-place vote) Did not appear in the Baseball Prospectus Annual For more detail on the award, click here. The Vogelsong Award goes to the best player and pitcher who were given little or no attention in the Annual.
Por qué estoy preocupado por la temporada 2027–segunda parte
Traducido por José M. Hernández Lagunes En el artículo publicado ayer, presenté dos razones por las que me preocupa que un paro laboral pueda poner en peligro la temporada 2027 de las Grandes Ligas. Primero, mencioné la aparente inevitabilidad de un cierre patronal, indicios de que los dueños están dispuestos a perder partidos y, segundo, mi escepticismo ante la idea de que la calma prevalecerá.
Por qué estoy preocupado por la temporada 2027–primera parte
Traducido por Miguel Boada Nájera ¿Por qué ahora? Es una pregunta válida. El Contrato Colectivo de Trabajo expirará dentro de tres meses. Todavía queda un mes de la temporada regular. Entonces, ¿por qué ponerse pesimista justo en este momento? Bueno, creo que el próximo mes vamos a estar enfocados en la carrera a la postemporada y en ver cuántos equipos de la Liga Americana con récord perdedor pueden clasificar a playoffs. El siguiente mes será ese torneo.
Why I’m Worried About the 2027 Season – Part 2
In my last article, I presented two reasons I’m concerned that a work stoppage could endanger the 2027 MLB season. I cited, first, the seeming inevitability of a lockout, indications that ownership is prepared to lose games, and, second, my skepticism of the “cooler heads will prevail” assumptions. I’ll present a couple other causes for concern here but end, cautiously, on a kind-of hopeful note.
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It's never too early to panic.
Atlanta Braves Holdings Reports Second Quarter Earnings: Of Course They Made Money
Share: A very good three months, on the field and off. Full access to this article is for Premium Baseball Prospectus subscribers. Sign up today to get access to insightful analysis for the discerning baseball fan. Super-Premium - $99.95 / yearPremium - $74.95 / yearPremium Monthly - $19.95 / month
The Month That Was: July
A look at the league-wide trends hidden inside the seasonal statistics.
The Vogelsong Awards: July
Honoring the best of the overlooked.
The Role of Speed in Fielding
Are fast guys better fielders?
A Silent Spring (and Summer)? The Loss of Score Bug Biodiversity
Over the course of last season, I watched three home games for all 30 teams and wrote about the viewing experience. The main focus was on the stadium and the broadcast booth, of course. But I also catalogued minutiae like the color of outfield advertisements, the presence of business-to-business ads (which I will never understand in this context), and the features of the score bugs on the screen.
El mes que fue: junio de 2026
Traducido por Carlos Marcano En esta serie, revisamos las tendencias clave de la MLB en carreras anotadas, jugadores de posición lanzando, lesiones, bases robadas, tiempo de juego y ABS. Este es un examen mes a mes para aislar las tendencias estacionales. NL Oeste G P Pct. JD Dodgers 18 9 .667 — Giants 12 14 .462 5.5 Diamondbacks 12 15 .444 6.0 Padres 11 15 .423 6.5 Rockies 11 15 .423 6.5 NL Central G P Pct.
Un vistazo a la actualidad de la Línea de Heim
keyboard_arrow_uptop Traducido por Fernando Battaglini El año pasado introduje la Línea Heim, una actualización a la Línea Mendoza. La Línea Mendoza, nombrada así en honor a el ex campocorto Mario Mendoza, quien contaba con muy buena defensa pero con poca ofensiva, se remonta a la época en la cual los periódicos dominicales listaban a todos los bateadores de la Liga Americana y la Liga Nacional por encima de un umbral de turnos al bate ordenados por promedio de bateo (AVG).
When 40 Isn’t Enough
Carlos Carrasco has performed unremarkably in limited opportunities for the Braves this year: five games, nine innings,3.00 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 111 DRA-. He has only an 11% strikeout rate, but has also issued only one walk. The emphasis, though, should probably be on limited.
Why Batters Hit Better with Runners in Scoring Position
Look at who’s on the mound.
El mes que fue: mayo de 2026
Traducido por José M. Hernández Lagunes En esta serie, revisamos las tendencias clave de la MLB en carreras anotadas, jugadores de posición lanzando, lesiones, bases robadas, tiempo de juego y ABS. Este es un examen mes a mes para aislar las tendencias estacionales. (A lo largo de este reporte, abril se refiere a marzo y abril). NL Oeste G P Pct. JD Dodgers 18 10 .643 — Diamondbacks 15 13 .536 3.0 Padres 13 15 .464 5.0 Giants 10 18 .357 8.0 Rockies 8 20 .286 10.0 NL Central G P Pct.
The Month That Was: May
A look at the league-wide trends hidden inside the seasonal statistics.
Veteran Presence: The Vogelsong Awards: May
Honoring the best of the overlooked.
The Players Association Opening Proposal and Two Questions
The first salvo in baseball's negotiation will center around competitive balance.
The Other Reason the NL Central’s So Good
Making hay when playing the other league.
¿Están muertas las esperanzas de postemporada de los Yankees?
Traducido por Fernando Battaglini Aunque crecí en Minnesota, he vivido en Nueva York desde que terminé la universidad. Como resultado, conozco a mucho fanáticos de los Mets y los Yankees. Los fanático de los Yankees… ¡madre mía! (Los fanáticos de los Mets, claro, tienen sus propias patologías que no vienen al caso).
El mes que fue: abril de 2026
Traducido por Carlos Marcano En esta serie, revisamos las tendencias clave de la MLB en carreras anotadas, jugadores de posición lanzando, lesiones, bases robadas, tiempo de juego y ABS. Este es un examen mes a mes para aislar las tendencias estacionales. (A lo largo de este reporte, abril se refiere a marzo y abril). NL Oeste G P Pct. JD Dodgers 20 11 .645 — Padres 19 11 .633 0.5 Diamondbacks 16 14 .533 3.5 Rockies 14 18 .438 6.5 Giants 13 18 .419 7.0 NL Central G P Pct.
¿La División Central de la Liga Nacional es la mejor de la historia?
Traducido por José M. Hernández Lagunes Al comenzar la jornada de hoy, todos los equipos de la División Central de la Liga Nacional tienen un récord ganador. A continuación pongo una lista de todas las temporadas, desde que se implementaron las divisiones en 1969, en las que todos los equipos de una división terminaron con un récord positivo: … Nunca ha sucedido.
Atlanta Braves Holdings Reports First Quarter Earnings: How Much Money Do Executives Make?
Share: Where the workers make more than the bosses. Full access to this article is for Premium Baseball Prospectus subscribers. Sign up today to get access to insightful analysis for the discerning baseball fan. Super-Premium - $99.95 / yearPremium - $74.95 / yearPremium Monthly - $19.95 / month
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