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Articles by Robert Dishner
Más allá de las pausas, se perfilan nuevas subidas de tipos
Añadir Estrategias de Inversión en Google La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (Fed), el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y el Banco de Japón (BoJ) hicieron lo que se esperaba la semana pasada y mantuvieron los tipos de interés sin cambios, optando por esperar hasta sus reuniones de diciembre antes de volver a subirlos, potencialmente.
El mercado está descontando múltiples factores simultáneamente
Añadir Estrategias de Inversión en Google El mercado está valorando actualmente varios factores a la vez. Por un lado, la persistencia de unos precios del crudo más elevados. Por otro, la narrativa de crecimiento está evolucionando hacia un escenario de crecimiento estable o incluso más sólido hasta que se demuestre lo contrario, lo que supone un cambio respecto a la visión predominante de que la actividad económica se enfrentaría a dificultades debido al nivel de los tipos de interés.
Noticias de Robert Dishner
Actualizado a: . , gestor sénior y director de operaciones en Londres de Neuberger Las pérdidas en el mercado de bonos del Tesoro estadounidense se intensificaron ayer, ya que los datos económicos positivos y una subasta de deuda con resultados mediocres impulsaron los rendimientos en la mayoría de los plazos hasta los niveles más altos en casi dos décadas. Sin embargo, existen otros focos de preocupación para los inversores. ¿Cuáles?
Diversificación sin complicaciones: argumentos a favor de los bonos globales en 2026 Original
Las carteras globales ofrecen la oportunidad de ampliar las posiciones actuales, al modificar la proporción de su composición como parte del proceso de diversificación. Ampliar el abanico de oportunidades a una selección más amplia de mercados y estructuras de plazos permite aprovechar las características y oportunidades específicas de los mercados mundiales. Las asignaciones absolutas y relativas entre distintos países y vencimientos aumentan las posibilidades de generar ingresos y alfa.
Diversification Without Complication: The Case for Global Bonds in 2026
After an extended period of declining yields and credit spreads, we believe the fixed income environment is becoming increasingly nuanced. Near-neutral rates, tight spreads and elevated macro and political risks require investors to tread carefully in setting exposures while taking a broader approach to maximizing the opportunities that will present themselves.
Central Banks Struggle to Regain the Rates Narrative
Major central banks’ unconvincing mix of policy cuts and pauses last week shows they are struggling to regain the global rates narrative. Amid the uncertainty, relative value opportunities are emerging. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve last week lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, giving the markets what was priced in, but disappointing in providing forward guidance.
European Bonds - Still More to Give
Benign inflation, a dovish central bank and healthy yields have helped boost the global attraction of European government bond and credit markets. With further monetary easing expected, European fixed income continues to look selectively compelling. While the European Central Bank is expected to pause further interest rate cuts at its next meeting on July 24, we believe it is unlikely to be the end of easing this year, extending the supportive backdrop for European fixed income markets.
It’s ‘Show Me’ Time
Seventy days into the new U.S. administration, we are beginning to accrue enough hard data to correct or confirm the pessimism of recent soft data. It is not the end, or even the beginning of the end, said Winston Churchill in 1942, when things finally started looking up for the Allies in the Second World War. But it is perhaps the end of the beginning. Seventy days in, there is an “end of the beginning” feel to President Trump’s new term.
Are U.S. and European Bonds About to Break Ranks?
The two markets have marched in lockstep for several months, setting up the potential for attractive relative-value and dispersion trades. U.S. and European bond markets have become unusually highly correlated this year, despite big differences in GDP growth rates, inflation trends and interest rate policy expectations. Does this lay the groundwork for attractive relative-value and dispersion trades over the rest of 2024?
China’s reopening could support European growth
Europe has a particularly export-oriented economy. Before the pandemic (the fourth quarter of 2019), exports of goods and services from the euro area totalled 47.4% of nominal GDP compared to just 11.6% for US exports. Moreover, China has grown in importance as a destination for European exports – suggesting that its reopening could help regional growth. However, this could be a mixed blessing. About two-thirds of European exports, as reflected in GDP, are goods.
Making Sense of Markets and Policy Change
This podcast includes general market commentary, general investment education and general information about Neuberger Berman. It is provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security.
U.S. CPI Should Keep The Fed Hawkish - For Now
By Robert Dishner When shelter turns, inflation could start to come down more rapidly. U.S. consumer price inflation remained elevated in May, and while core CPI decelerated on a year-over-year basis from 6.2% to 6.0%, its composition suggests that the rate of decline could take further time to accelerate. As a result, we think the Federal Reserve is likely to remain hawkish both in policy and communication until there is a turn in either the labor data or an improvement in inflation.
December Employment Report Should Confirm Fed Hawkishness
Tightness will likely temper expectations for big jobs gains in 2022. The U.S. payrolls report has missed expectations for a second month in a row, although that ignores improvements in the household survey. While payrolls increased by 448,000 in November and December, the household survey showed employment gains of 1.7 million. Evidence that the labor market is tight despite the miss in payrolls is in wages.
It’s Quitting Time: Exploring Labor Market Dynamics
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Incomes Are Likely to Support Growth and Consumption
Fears about consumption may be misplaced. One of the key concerns of the market has been that consumption would fall once enhanced unemployment benefits ended and stimulus checks rolled off. We believe that, while that could still be the case, the more likely outcome is that consumption, which is nearly 70% of GDP, will be supported by growth in incomes.
Watch Out for Food Inflation
While other CPI components may be discretionary, “food at home” is accelerating. The market has been focused on reopening trades, used cars and rents on inflation. However, food inflation has been increasing at a rapid pace as well, accounting for over 30% of the month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index in September, rising 93bps. Outside of April 2020 pandemic-related levels, that’s the highest reading since July 2008.
August Payrolls is unlikely to derail Fed Tapering
Certain products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. The information provided herein is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information about our products and services and to otherwise provide general investment education.
August Payrolls Are Unlikely to Derail Fed Tapering
Despite the payrolls miss versus expectations, other items held firm. The latest Payrolls Report showed an increase of 235,000 versus the 733,000 forecast by economists. While disappointing, this topline result obscures three major items: The Household Survey showed gains of 509,000. In basic terms, the Household Survey involves calling people and asking if they are employed.
Why Is the Fed RRP Increasing?
The facility is on the radar, but not a current concern. In order to maintain the federal funds rate within its band (0 – 25 basis points), the New York Federal Reserve conducts various operations, including reverse repurchases. Much is being made of the increase of this facility as it moved from near nothing in the first quarter to as much as $992 billion at the end of the second quarter, and currently sits at close to $800 billion.
Changes to the Workforce Could Add to Wage Pressures
The labor market is likely tighter than the macro numbers would suggest. An examination of the changes in the labor force since February 2020 shows that some may be permanent (demographics), semi-permanent (skills) and transitory (impact of unemployment benefits). These changes would indicate a tighter labor market than the 6.1% unemployment rate would suggest. As a result, we believe there is likely upward pressure on wages.
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