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Articles by Robert Honeywill
Southwest Gas: 12 Months On From Centuri Divestiture
Summary Southwest Gas Holdings is now a pure-play regulated utility, offering stable earnings growth and renewed dividend increases after a three-year suspension. SWX's $6.3 billion 2026–2030 capital plan underpins strong EPS growth projections, supporting potential share price appreciation and robust dividend growth. Based on analysts' estimates SWX's share price could rise ~7% in 12 months and ~11% annually through 2030, with dividend yield on cost reaching ~5% by 2030.
NCR Voyix: Employee Numbers, Potential AI Impact - Houston We Have A Problem
Aug 14, 2026, 10:39 AM ET Summary NCR Voyix Corporation is downgraded from Buy to Hold due to challenges in realizing productivity gains from AI-driven automation. VYX's agentic AI and cloud-native platforms are modernizing offerings, but revenue and employee productivity lag behind peers like Paymentus. Despite strong customer adoption and innovation, VYX's revenue per employee remains stagnant, highlighting cost reduction as a critical hurdle.
Tutor Perini: Improved Contract Administration - That's The Difference
Summary Tutor Perini is not threatened by AI agents; AI will enhance design and documentation efficiency. Significant 2025 share-based compensation expense was a one-off due to legacy awards and a sharp stock price increase; future expense is projected to decline materially. TPC initiated share repurchases in 2026 at favorable prices and reinstated a quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in sustained financial strength.
Hawaiian Electric: The Glory Days Are Over - Maintain Strong Sell
Aug 10, 2026, 8:45 AM ET Summary Hawaiian Electric has a long and impressive history, both operating and financial, as the near sole provider of electricity generation and distribution to the State of Hawaii. Hawaiian Electric suffered a catastrophic operational and financial blow from the Maui wildfire in August 2023. The company will survive, but it faces a long and difficult road ahead, with virtually no hope of recovering to previous levels in the foreseeable future.
Paymentus Holdings: Opportunities For Accelerated Growth Through Acquisitions
Summary Paymentus Holdings has delivered explosive revenue growth, with a 34% CAGR from December 2022 to December 2025. PAY's automation enables EBITDAR to grow at a 105.6% CAGR, far outpacing employee growth and driving significant margin expansion. The balance sheet is robust and strengthening, supporting continued operational and financial flexibility for future growth.
Tidewater: Beware A Confluence Of Events
Aug 03, 2026, 12:04 PM ET Summary Tidewater Inc. (TDW) has offered significant short-term trading opportunities, with shares rising 40.7% from November 2025 to July 2026. Despite recent gains, TDW's stock is volatile; many investors who bought near highs remain underwater, underscoring trading risks. TDW is unsuitable for long-term holding due to its cyclical industry exposure and history of bankruptcy in 2017.
NCR Atleos: June 30 Vote And Performance Update (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Following a proposal by Brink's to acquire NCR Atleos, NCR Atleos' share price is currently ~9% higher than pre-offer, while Brink's share price is ~20% lower than pre-offer. The market appears to be indicating the proposed offer is a good deal for NCR Atleos common stockholders and a poor deal (value destructive) for Brink's shareholders.
NCR Atleos: Brink's Offer - The Pros And Cons Both Financial And Strategic (NYSE:NATL)
Robert Honeywill 8.15K Followers Comments Summary Brink's Company proposes to acquire NCR Atleos via a cash and share offer, valuing NATL at $50.40 per share initially. The offer's value has declined to $49.81 per share as BCO's stock price has dropped post-announcement, but NATL stock still trades below this implied offer value.
NCR Voyix Stock: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence (Rating Upgrade) (NYSE:VYX)
Robert Honeywill 8.16K Followers Comments Summary NCR Voyix Corporation is upgraded from Sell to Buy, reflecting confidence in its proposed strategic direction to improve earnings growth potential. VYX is leveraging AI and platform services to enhance customer value, aiming to drive subscription fee growth with minimal incremental costs. Consensus forecasts indicate 18.7% earnings growth in 2026, though longer-term estimates are more muted, highlighting the importance of execution.
Tidewater: Rational To Trade Short Term, Otherwise Sell Rating Maintained (NYSE:TDW)
Robert Honeywill 8.16K Followers Comments Summary Tidewater Inc.'s early explosive revenue growth has flattened out, and it remains a highly cyclical business with a history of bankruptcy in a previous downturn. TDW's Quant rating is Sell due to overvaluation, negative EPS revisions, and characteristics linked to historically poor stock performance.
ALLETE: Opportunity For One Last Bite Of The Cherry (NYSE:ALE)
Robert Honeywill 8.16K Followers Comments Summary ALLETE, Inc. is set to be acquired, with all regulatory approvals secured and the transaction expected to close by the end of 2025. ALE shareholders can expect a $67 per share payout plus accrued dividends, offering a short-term return opportunity of 6%-7% at current prices. Holding or buying ALE shares now provides a relatively low-risk, short-term investment with better returns than idle cash or bank deposits.
Allete: Merger Close Doubts Arise, But Buy Rating Maintained (NYSE:ALE)
Summary Allete's merger is progressing, with all major approvals secured except for the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (MPUC). The Minnesota Commerce Department now supports the merger, citing benefits for affordable, clean, and reliable energy. Despite this, the Administrative Law Judge recommended denying the merger, citing unresolved concerns, even after reviewing the settlement agreement.
Hawaiian Electric: Too Difficult - Maintain Strong Sell (NYSE:HE)
Sep. 01, 2025 8:47 AM ET, , Summary Management's arguably low-price sale of ASB Bank and lack of shareholder consultation led me to downgrade Hawaiian Electric from Buy to Strong Sell. I revisited the stock's outlook, focusing on its pure utility profile and long-term prospects. If no further capital raises occur, share price could grow with EPS, offering a 5.5% annual return, but increased debt may restrict dividends.
NCR Voyix: Treading Water - Downgrade To Sell (NYSE:VYX)
Aug. 28, 2025 9:35 AM ET, Summary NCR Voyix appears to be a solid, well-run business, with software and services valued by customers. At the same time, the company operates in what appears to be a fiercely competitive market, adversely affecting its pricing power and limiting earnings growth. In addition, the company has a high debt level and is unlikely to pay a dividend in the foreseeable future.
NCR Atleos: Reports Of Death Of Cash Are Greatly Exaggerated (NYSE:NATL)
Jun. 22, 2025 11:31 AM ET, Summary NCR Atleos Management have outlined an impressive, understandable, and highly believable strategy for earnings growth. The company and the stock are at a possible inflection point. Now is possibly an opportune time for investment in the shares of this stock. NCR Atleos stock is upgraded from Sell to Buy.
ALLETE: Delay In Transaction Closing, 14% ROR Opportunity (NYSE:ALE)
Summary ALLETE offers a compelling ~14% annualized return if the $67/share buyout closes by year-end 2025, with dividends paid in the interim. Regulatory approvals are progressing, with Minnesota's MPUC remaining; the deal's close is delayed to Q4 2025 but still likely to complete. At current prices, ALLETE is a strong buy for new investors seeking a low-risk, short-term return superior to cash or bank deposits.
NCR Voyix Stock: Series A Preferred Stock, A Better Option (NYSE:VYX)
May 22, 2025 9:00 AM ET, , , , Summary While NCR Voyix common stock is considered a reasonably safe investment, the company is still going through a process of restructuring. An investment in NCR Voyix common stock is probably best left until the outcomes of restructuring become more clear. On the other hand, the Series A Convertible Preferred 5.5% stock appears to provide a reasonably safe and secure investment, with an attractive yield and capital protection provisions.
NI Holdings: Fully Demutualize, Remutualize, Or Neither, It's A Buy
This article was written by I am a retired accountant with a background in large mining projects, from feasibility to full-scale operation, large scale primary industry and food processing, commercialisation of university intellectual property, and consulting to small businesses, government departments and insolvency practitioners.
SpartanNash (SPTN) Stock: Downgraded To Sell, With A Caveat
Summary SpartanNash Company is downgraded from hold to sell due to disappointing FY 2024 performance, with potential shareholder activism as a caveat for possible share price increases. Wholesale and Retail segments show declining or flat revenues, with GAAP net income at zero and adjusted non-GAAP earnings significantly down from previous years.
Tidewater: Exciting, Cyclical, High-Risk Stock (NYSE:TDW)
Robert Honeywill 8.16K Followers Comments (2) Summary Tidewater Inc. has shown explosive revenue growth but remains a highly cyclical business with a history of bankruptcy in a previous downturn. Despite recent profitability, Tidewater's increasing net debt and liabilities pose a substantial risk, especially during potential downturns in the OSV market. The stock's high volatility and sentiment-driven price swings suggest opportunities to sell above current prices, but long-term holding is risky.
Swap Hawaiian Electric For Portland General Electric (NYSE:HE)
Mar. 27, 2025 1:19 PM ET, , Summary Portland has a strong balance sheet. It is growing the investment base to drive earnings and EPS and dividend growth, while improving debt ratios. Hawaiian Electric has a weak balance sheet creating financial risk. It will take years to repair the balance sheet, and there are hurdles along the way.
Allete, Inc.: 11% Return Beats A Bank For Short-Term Idle Cash (NYSE:ALE)
Allete: Investment Thesis In my June 30, 2024, article, "Allete, Inc.: BlackRock's Backdoor Takeover", with the share price at $62.57, I discussed how shareholders in Allete could earn 12.3% per annum by holding through mid-2025. This was predicated on a successful outcome of the bid for all the shares of the company at $67 cash per share expected to settle in mid-2025, subject to shareholder and various regulatory approvals.
Hawaiian Electric: ASB Bank Sale Could Lead To A Downward Spiral In Share Price (NYSE:HE)
Jan. 14, 2025 12:29 AM ET Summary ASB bank appears to have been sold with undue haste and at a fire sale price. The low sale price for ASB bank not only means less cash to repay wildfire claims, it is also depressing for the Hawaiian Electric share price. A lower Hawaiian Electric share price requires an increased number of shares issued to raise necessary additional cash, which in turn will lead to a further share price decline.
NCR Voyix: Impact Of Digital Banking Sale
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NCR Voyix: Impact Of Digital Banking Sale (NYSE:VYX)
Summary NCR Voyix sold its Digital Banking business for $2.45 billion effective September 30, 2024. The company is also undertaking restructuring of its other two segments, Restaurants and Retail, as well as transferring customers onto a cloud platform for greater efficiency. The sale of the banking business appears likely to result in a reduction in GAAP net income, even after taking into account lower interest expense due to debt reduction.
Hawaiian Electric Industries: Update Maui Fire Settlement (NYSE:HE)
Summary Hawaiian Electric Industries share price is currently depressed due to significant wildfire tort-related claims and suspension of dividends. The company now has some degree of certainty on the quantum of the wildfire related claims, though there is still some ongoing disputation. It appears the company might have a possible path towards repaying the wildfire related claims over the next four years.
Guidewire Software: Mr. Market Blinded By Enthusiasm (NYSE:GWRE)
Guidewire Software: Investment Thesis Since my December 2023 article, "Guidewire Software: Time To Take Some Money Off The Table," the Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) share price has increased by 46.44%, while the S&P 500 (SP500) has increased by 22.93%. So, I am reminded again, Mr. Market can show a lack of understanding of factors affecting the intrinsic value of a stock for long periods of time.
NCR Atleos: Shares Even More Expensive - Sell (NYSE:NATL)
NCR Atleos: Investment Thesis My previous article in relation to NCR Atleos Corporation (NYSE:NATL) was back on February 13, 2024, "NCR Atleos: Burdened With Debt And Shares Expensive - Sell". The share price at the time of publication was $23.18 and has since increased by 24.98% to $28.97, compared to a 12.56% increase in the S&P 500. This is a strong reminder that market sentiment is often swayed by matters other than mere fundamentals.
Hawaiian Electric Industries: Projecting Maui Fire Settlement (NYSE:HE)
Image: Downtown Tourist area Lahani on Maui Island. Hawaiian Electric Industries: Investment Thesis “As long as a piece of string,” is an answer you might get to a question that cannot be specifically answered. It has been a bit like that with the question of how much Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (NYSE:HE) might have to pay as its share of compensation for victims of the Maui wildfires back in early August 2023. Figures as high as $5.5 to $6 billion have been floated.
Centrus Energy Corp.: Riding Nuclear Renaissance Wave (NYSE:LEU)
The above image shows a nuclear fuel bundle with fuel pellets shown in the foreground. Just under one centimeter in diameter and a little more than one centimeter long, a single pellet in a typical reactor yields about the same amount of energy as one tonne of steaming coal. Centrus Energy: Investment Thesis Most of my articles for Seeking Alpha are based on fundamental analysis.
UGI Corporation: A Lot To Do With Market Sentiment (NYSE:UGI)
UGI: Investment Thesis There are a number of factors I believe are likely to cause an improvement in UGI Corporation (NYSE:UGI) share price in the period ahead. These include - a likely SA Quant rating change from Hold to Buy improved profitability due to positive management actions a strengthening in the balance sheet, including improvement in the debt ratio Fundamentals are important, but market sentiment has a significant impact on a stock's share price performance.
Allete, Inc.: BlackRock's Backdoor Takeover (NYSE:ALE)
Image: Buffalo Ridge Minnesota ALLETE: Investment Thesis The management and board of ALLETE, Inc. (NYSE:ALE) failed through end of 2022 to deliver the EPS growth rate target of 5% to 7% set in 2017. This failure to perform likely contributed to a decline in the share price from the range of ~$74 to $81 during 2017 to 2019 to the mid to low $60s level from 2020 to date.
NCR Voyix: The Transformation To Cloud Platform Continues (VYX)
NCR Voyix Corporation: Investment Thesis In my Feb. 23, 2024 article, "NCR Voyix: Hopefully The End Of 8 Years Restructuring", I summed up with, For certain, it is no accident NCR Voyix is a leading global provider of digital commerce solutions for Retail, Restaurant, and Digital Banking industries with a large installed base. I don't question the competence of management in this regard.
Applied Industrial Technologies: Limited Share Price Growth Ahead (NYSE:AIT)
AIT Investment Thesis I last published an article on Applied Industrial Technologies (NYSE:AIT) in May 2023, "Applied Industrial Technologies: Hitting Analysts' Estimates Out Of The Ballpark", with a Buy rating. Since then, Seeking Alpha reports an increase in share price of 41.56%, and a total return of 42.58%, compared to a change of 25.72% in the S&P 500.
SpartanNash: LIFO Adjustments, A Step Too Far (NASDAQ:SPTN)
Investment Thesis In my article published September 29, 2021, I wrote, At current share price SpartanNash Company (NASDAQ:SPTN) offers an attractive 3.79% dividend yield. The current P/E ratio of 9.29 is below its historical levels of around 10.0 to 10.5. Unfortunately, SA analysts' EPS estimates indicate a decline in EPS through end of 2023, so any change in P/E ratio is more likely to be a decrease than an increase.
NCR Voyix: Hopefully The End Of 8 Years Restructuring
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NCR Voyix Stock: Hopefully The End Of 8 Years Restructuring (OTCMKTS:NCRRP) Original
Feb. 23, 2024 12:41 AM ETNCR Voyix CorporationA (NCRRP) Stock, VYX StockNATL Summary NCR Voyix, prior to its spin-off of NCR Atleos, underwent 7 years of restructuring and hopefully this spin-off in the eighth year brings the restructuring to an end. NCR Voyix has market leading services and products, but EBITDA earnings have been eroded by "unusual costs" that had become a usual feature of annual financial reporting.
NCR Atleos: Burdened With Debt And Shares Expensive - Sell (NYSE:NATL)
Feb. 13, 2024 8:33 AM ETNCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) StockNCRRP, VYX Summary NCR Atleos was required to make a ~$3 billion payment to NCR Voyix on 16 October 2023 in accordance with the spin-off arrangements. The effect of this payment has been to significantly weaken the NCR Atleos balance sheet compared to the position at September 30 as reported in Q3 2023 10-Q filing.
Coca-Cola: IRS Claim - A Matter Of Risk And Consequence (NYSE:KO)
Image: Coca-Cola FEMSA Brazil delivery truck Coca-Cola Investment Thesis - Putting IRS Claim To One Side I previously published an article on The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO), "Coca-Cola: Debt Levels Reduced, Attractive Multiple, Upgrade From Hold To Buy" on Oct. 9, 2023, ahead of Q3-2023 earnings release on Oct. 24, 2023. Subsequently, Coca-Cola continued its long run of earnings beats with a beat of $0.05 for Q3-2023.
UGI Corporation: Dashed Expectations Create Buy Opportunity (NYSE:UGI)
Investment Thesis As I undertook research for this article, I had to keep asking myself why UGI Corporation (NYSE:UGIC) (NYSE:UGI) is such a beaten down stock. It's a dividend aristocrat with a dividend yield of 6.8%, comfortably covered by earnings, with a manageable debt level. Even the Jan. 31 post market announcement of a December quarter non-GAAP EPS of $1.20, a beat of $0.17, has not been enough to lift the share price. In fact, as I write this, the share price pre-market open on Feb.
NI Holdings: Interesting Developments - Windfall Gains Opportunity (NASDAQ:NODK)
Background My previous article on NI Holdings (NASDAQ:NODK) - "NI Holdings: Potential Upside From Anti-Dilution Provisions" - was a 3,300-plus word discussion of demutualization provisions and their implications for shareholders. I do not intend to repeat those lengthy discussions and explanations, but for those interested in the intimate details, I have made the above linked article an "Author's Pick," so it can be accessed by all readers.
Guidewire Software: Time To Take Some Money Off The Table
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Guidewire Software: Time To Take Some Money Off The Table (GWRE)
Investment Thesis Back on August 6, 2020, with the Guidewire Software, Inc. (NYSE:GWRE) share price at $119.07, I published an article, "Guidewire Software: 'Leaky Equity Bucket', Time To Abandon Ship." One year later, on Aug. 17, 2021, with the share price down to $110.01, I decided to take another look, and published an article, "Guidewire Software: No Fix To The 'Leaky Equity Bucket'". Around eight months on, and with the share price down by a further $17.28 to $92.73 at close on Apr.
AAON Stock: Strong Management, Competitive Advantages
AAON: Investment Thesis Share price action - Back on Dec. 22, 2021,with the AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) split adjusted share price at $52.00, I published the article, "AAON: 'Mr. Market' Is Showing Irrational Exuberance", and gave the stock a Strong Sell rating. From then until my subsequent article on June 29, 2022, the share price dropped by over 30% to $34.94, compared to a fall of ~16% in the S&P 500 over the same period, justifying my Strong Sell rating.
Apple: Not Attractive At Current Earnings Multiple, Possible Q4 Earnings Miss (AAPL)
Investment Thesis: I have written before about Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), all four times with a Buy rating. My first article was in Sep. 2015, "Apple Watch: 'Apple Inside'" with share price at $29.15 (split adjusted). SA Premium shows the share price has since increased by 493.17% with a total return of 553.48%.
UGI Corporation: Safe Dividend Yield And Attractive Share Price - Its A Buy (NYSE:UGI)
Investment Thesis I previously published an article on UGI Corporation (NYSE:UGI) around market open on June 16, 2021, "UGI Corporation: Still A Strong Buy", with the share price at $47.04. I was in good company at the time, with Seeking Alpha Quant Rating also a Strong Buy, as per Fig. 1.1 below. Figure 1.1 UGI Corporation Quant Rating The share price subsequently reached a high of $48.55 on August 16, 2021.
NCR: Spinoff Of ATM Business Completed - Expect 'Spin' To Continue - Downgrade To Sell
Investment Thesis I have written extensively on NCR Corporation (NCR) in the past, analyzing and discussing management's never ending transformation efforts. In my most recent article in May 2023, "NCR: A New Twist To A Never-Ending Transformation", I observed that NCR was now adopting a new approach to transformation, with a proposed split of the company into two separate publicly listed entities.
Allegion: Successful Acquisition And Lower Multiple; Upgrade To Buy (NYSE:ALLE)
Investment Thesis Allegion plc (NYSE:ALLE) is in the business of providing electronic and mechanical access control for both business and non-business customers. I previously published articles, "Allegion: Excessively High Multiple Remains A Concern", on Jul. 29, 2021, and, "Allegion: Decline In Multiple Makes For Possible Buy", on Feb. 23, 2022, both with a Hold rating. Since the Feb. 2022 article, SA premium statistics show the share price has declined by 5.55% and total return is negative 2.86%.
Edison International: Similarities To Vistra, With Important Differences (Buy Maintained)
Oct. 12, 2023 8:35 AM ETEdison International (EIX)VST Summary Edison International is investing heavily in transmission line upgrades to greatly lessen the likelihood of recurrence of past wildfire events attributed to sparks from transmission lines. These capital expenditures are able to be included in Edison International tariff calculations and therefore will contribute an increase in future revenues.
Coca-Cola: Debt Levels Reduced, Attractive Multiple, Upgrade From Hold To Buy (NYSE:KO)
Investment Thesis: I last published an article on Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) back on February 4, 2021, titled, "Coca-Cola: Earnings And FCF Are Not 'The Real Thing'". I included in my summary points, There is an issue with Coca-Cola's reporting of GAAP and non-GAAP earnings - earnings and free cash flow are arguably not "the real thing" and are overstated.
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