Which of these arguments do you think is better? Argument 1: Every time anyone has jumped in the air, they have fallen back to the ground. So, the next time someone jumps in the air, they will fall back to the ground. Argument 2: The Moon is made of cream cheese. If the Moon is made of cream cheese, then all dogs are history professors. So, all dogs are history professors. I’m guessing there’s a pretty good chance that you think Argument 1 is better than Argument 2.