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Articles by Sam Miley
Tax on private school fees is only a drop in the £50bn fiscal black hole
The additional money from Value Added Tax (VAT) on private school fees is only a drop in the £50bn fiscal black hole, say leading audit, tax and business advisory firm, Blick Rothenberg. Fiona Fernie, a Partner at the firm, said, “Government figures suggested that VAT on private school fees would raise an extra £460m in the 2024/25 financial year, rising to £1.7bn by 2029/30, which is nothing compared to the £50bn that is needed.
France using UK as a ‘dumping ground for illegal migrants’
The British government is paying Paris £800 million “for absolutely nothing” and France is using the UK as a “dumping ground for illegal migrants,” the Shadow Justice Secretary has said. Robert Jenrick gave a scathing attack on the French authorities after he spent 48 hours in northern France and watched illegal migrant freely moving around to then head to the UK.
A ‘serious nuclear incident’ rocks UK’s Trident submarine base
A “serious nuclear incident” has happened at the HM Naval Base Clyde (HMNB), Scotland the Ministry of Defence has confirmed. The nuclear incident is a “category A” which happened between 1 January and 22 April 2025 at Faslane, which is home to the Royal Navy’s Vanguard submarines which are armed with Trident missiles, including the nuclear-powered Astute class hunters.
UK GDP growth slowed in Q2 but showed more resilience than expected
UK GDP growth decelerated to 0.3% in Q2, down from 0.7% in Q1. Although a slowdown was widely anticipated, this was not as strong as initially feared. Among the components of GDP, business investment was a key contributor to slower growth, reflecting the headwinds of increased costs and heightened uncertainty faced over the spring. Household consumption growth also slowed on the quarter, with tourist spending having a notable downward effect.
Bank of England cuts rates despite continual domestic price pressures
The Bank of England has today cut the base rate to 4%. The Monetary Policy Committee was far from unanimous, as evidenced by the 5-4 split in favour of the cut. This lack of consensus captures the difficult balancing act the Bank is facing. Inflation is well above target, with clear price pressures across the energy, food, and services categories. However, the economy is also showing poor momentum and the labour market is weakening.
Chancellor warned ‘for the first time in the history’ small businesses are ‘facing a very dangerous situation’
The share of small businesses who said they expected their business to shrink or close, or to sell up the business over the next 12 months – 27 per cent – outweighed the proportion who predicted their business would expand – 25 per cent – in the second quarter of this year.
Chancellor's tax hikes on retailers will see more going into administration - London Business News
Online retailers are also struggling due to increased staffing costs caused by higher National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and minimum wage, say leading audit, tax and business advisory firm, Blick Rothenberg. Mark Cunningham, a Partner at the firm, said, “The primarily online maternity fashion brand, Seraphine, going into administration is a reminder that it’s not just high street retailers struggling with higher staffing costs due to the Government’s tax and employment policies.
Starmer and the Chancellor’s approval rating hits record low
Keir Starmer’s approval rating has fallen by 6 points to -41%, Opinium’s latest polling can reveal. This is the current prime minister’s lowest ever approval rating according to an Opinium poll.
Consumers and businesses are grappling with higher costs
The UK economy continued to underwhelm in May, shrinking for a second consecutive month. Drivers of the contraction were similar to those cited in April. On the consumer side, heightened inflation has impacted discretionary spending power, contributing to a sharp decline in consumer-facing services output. Meanwhile, businesses contended with elevated employment costs, following the implementation of several policy changes at the beginning of the new financial year.
UK and EU must seize the moment with reset - London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
The British Chambers of Commerce Business Council has met with the EU Ambassador and the UK’s EU Relations Minister to push the case for a trade reset. Director General, Shevaun Haviland, and President, Martha Lane Fox, hosted Pedro Serrano and the Rt Hon Nick Thomas-Symonds MP at the HQ of council member, DP World, in London, this morning.
NHS workers vote to accept an 8% pay increase
NHS workers who are members of Unite union have voted to accept an 8% pay rise over the following two years which will see a rise of 4.25% this year and in 2026 they will receive 3.75%. The Scottish government will fork out an extra £191 million for those in the ambulance service, porters and estates workers. Included in the deal is an “inflation guarantee” meaning that pay rises will always remain at least 1% above the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
UK GDP grows and continues riding out the storm
UK GDP grew 0.2% month-on-month in March, following a 0.5% rise in February and the services output grew 0.4% month-on-month. Construction output grew 0.5% month-on-month whilst production fell 0.7% month-on-month and GDP expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year.
Labour run council tries ‘criminalising Christianity’ which is ‘completely illegally illiterate’
A Labour run council has attempted to put in place a blanket ban on Christian related activity in their town centre. Rushmore Borough Council made a rapid U-turn over their illegal decision to seek an injunction that bans praying in Farnborough and Aldershot which would also ban traditional Christmas events.
Starmer says the Tories are heading into ‘brain dead oblivion’
During a fiery Prine Minister’s Questions (PMQs) Sir Keir Starmer hit out at Kemi Badenoch saying the Tories are heading into “brain dead oblivion.” The Prime Minister said during PMQs that the Conservatives are a “dead walking party” as Starmer hit back at Badenoch after she dismissed trade deals with the US and India as “tiny tariff” agreements. Badenoch said the UK is in a worse position now than it was a few months ago.
Entitled migrants destined for the UK tells GB News Britain ‘can give me a house or anything’
An entitled migrant has said that the UK “can help me with anything” once he crosses the English Channel and illegally enters Britain. A GB News presenter was in Calais for 24 hours and spoke to a migrant who says English people are “rich” so they can provide them with “anything they need.” Present Patrick Christy looked visibly gobsmacked at the claim as he was interviewing migrants over the perilous journey across the English Channel.
DHL Group to acquire a ‘significant minority stake’ in Evri
Evri is to merge with DHL Group and will form one of the UK’s largest delivery companies and together they will form 12,000 more workers and over 30,000 couriers. DHL Group has said they will acquire a “significant minority stake” in Evri and they will deliver more than 1 billion parcels and a billion letters each year. The firms said that the merger will provide “greater choice and cost-competitive solutions” for businesses and other customers.
Burberry to axe 1,700 jobs to return the fashion brand back to profit
Burberry has announced they are to axe 1,700 jobs globally to return the fashion brand back to profit, and the there will be job losses at the Castleford factory in West Yorkshire. The proposal will see 20% of the global workforce and Burberry has set a £100 million cost cutting target per year by 2027. Burberry’s chief executive Joshua Schulman said, “For a long time we have had overcapacity at that facility, and that is simply not sustainable.
Labour planning to close 11 offices in Whitehall and will move 12,000 civil servants out of the capital
The Prime Minister is planning to save money by moving roles out of London and has told 12,000 civil servants to leave offices in the capital. The government is hoping to save £94 million a year by 2032 and will relocate 11 Whitehall offices closing them down. They will be relocated to Belfast, York, Birmingham, Leeds, Cardiff, Glasgow, Darlington, Newcastle and Tyneside, Sheffield, Bristol and Edinburgh.
Used car buyers prioritise price over emissions
In 2024, used car sales rose by 5%, but unlike buying a new car, purchasing a used vehicle comes with extra considerations. So, are buyers doing everything they should to make informed decisions? To find this out, temporary car insurance experts, Tempcover, surveyed 2,000 UK drivers who have purchased a used car to explore their key considerations, buying habits and steps they take before making a purchase.
Two in five finance brokers expect surge in SME demand for loans over £100,000 in next year, as recession fears ease
New research from iwoca reveals big ticket loans are set to see increased interest from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), as growth ambitions resurface. The Q1 2025 SME Expert Index, a survey of finance brokers conducted quarterly by iwoca one of Europe’s largest SME lenders reveals two in five (42%) brokers think loans above £100,000 will see the most growth in demand in the next twelve months.
Tesco beats Asda as cheapest weekly shop
A new study has revealed the UK’s most budget-friendly supermarkets, with Aldi taking the top spot. Meanwhile, M&S Food and Co-op, both of which have suffered cyber attacks in recent days, ranked at the bottom of the list. Financial website Afforda analysed data from YouGov to find the most popular supermarkets in the UK. Per supermarket, a list of 30 common products was searched for, recording the cheapest available option. Each item was assigned a standard amount for fair comparison.
Ferrari earns five times more than Tesla in net profit per employee and 48 times more than BYD
In light of Ferrari’s record-breaking revenues for 2024 and its positive forecast for the next fiscal year despite tariffs, I am reaching out with a comprehensive report, highlighting the companies generating the highest revenue and net profit per employee. Ferrari recently made headlines with the unveiling of its new 296 Speciale hybrid models, priced at €407,000 for the coupe and €462,000 for the convertible in Italy, with U.S. prices expected to be higher due to tariffs.
Starmer’s immigration speech likened to Enoch Powell saying ‘strangers in their own country’
The Home Secretary has defended Sir Keir Starmer over criticism that his immigration speech is likened Enoch Powell’s “rivers of blood” speech in 1968. Starmer said in his immigration speech on Monday that UK risks becoming an “island of strangers” if the government does not act, whilst Powell said that British people could become “strangers in their own country” through migration.
TfL criticised over their poor communication during the power outage
A watchdog has criticised Transport for London (TfL) over their poor communication during Monday’s power outage which cause havoc for commuters. London Travel Watch (LTW) said that TfL must do “much better” in communicating to “millions of people” who rely on their services when things go wrong. On Monday afternoon a fault on National Grid’s transmission network caused cancellations and disruptions for many Tube lines across the capital.
There is 335,000 fewer employees on PAYE payroll since Chancellor’s car crash Autumn Budget
The latest research from The Global Payroll Alliance (GPA), reveals that since Labour’s Autumn Statement in October 2024, the number of PAYE staff in the UK has fallen by -334,748, equivalent to -67,000 people going off the books every month as businesses battle to reduce overheads under the strain of increased staffing costs.
UK economy under threat thanks to Chancellor’s ‘rise in employer national insurance’
According to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in the three months to March unemployment has jumped from 4.5% from 4.4% the month before. The ONS also reported that in the same period average regular earnings fell to 5.6%, but after taking into account the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation earning stands at 2.6% higher.
Retailers make hay while the sun shines
This year Easter was in April, while last year it was in March. This calendar change distorts the year-on-year sales comparisons – resulting in an artificially higher April, but lower March sales growth. In addition to April results, we also report the combined results for March and April to negate this distortion, presenting a clearer view of the underlying sales trend.
Households still feeling the squeeze as cost of running a home climbs by £695 per year
The latest analysis from finance specialists, RIFT, has revealed how UK households are still being squeezed financially as the cost of running a home has increased by almost £700 a year, with sharp hikes to utility bills driving this increased cost. RIFT’s analysis shows that the aspiration of homeownership remains an expensive one and one that is only getting more expensive.
Labour market continues to loosen, with further impact to come from recent policy changes
The UK unemployment rate came in at 4.5% in Q1, exactly in line with Cebr’s forecast. The rate was up on both the quarter and the year, suggesting that the labour market is loosening. Other indicators support this view. For instance, the number of payrolled employees declined for a third consecutive month in March, while vacancies fell for a 34th straight period in the three months to April.
Cleverly says Reeves farm tax is ‘one of the most stupid and counterproductive proposals I have ever seen’
The Chancellor’s inheritance tax hike on farmers it is putting food security at risk in the UK, the former Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has warned. Cleverly told reporters he is fearful that Labour has not even thought of a scenario of “moderate disruption” to British food supplies.
More than 300,000 homes at risk of having their electricity meters being switched off
More than 300,000 households across the UK are being told to take “urgent action” as they are at risk of having their electricity switched off. Thousands of households that have Radio Teleswitching System (RTS) meters that have not been upgraded will be switched off. Energy companies have acknowledged the current rates of replacement are taking time and the older RTS meters control hot water and heating and on 30 June they will become obsolete.
Eurozone growth accelerated in Q1 but outlook for the year remains subpar
The Eurozone economy surpassed expectations in Q1, with growth accelerating to 0.4%. This expansion was likely supported by the European Central Bank’s ongoing monetary loosening, as well as exporters increasing activity prior to the implementation of tariffs from the US. Despite the stronger performance in Q1, the outlook for the currency bloc remains weak, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and poor domestic demand conditions.
ECB takes one step closer to neutral with fifth rate cut amid stagnating economy - London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
Unsurprisingly, the market has learned nothing new from the policy statement, which is a near copy from December and full of the ECB’s old favourites: ‘meeting-by-meeting’, ‘data-dependent’, and the lack of a pre-committed path. Even with the press conference, the strengthening in EUR/USD makes little sense to me.
Eurozone economy grinds to a halt in Q4 2024, but activity expected to pick up in 2025
Growth in the Eurozone stalled in Q4 according to flash estimates released this morning. This marks a weak end to last year, following positive growth in the first three quarters of 2024. As a result, first estimates suggest that the currency bloc as a whole grew by 0.7% in 2024. Declining activity in Germany – the Eurozone’s largest economy – has weighed on the bloc’s growth, with German GDP contracting by 0.2% on the quarter.
ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as the economy stalls
In line with Cebr’s expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) has today announced a 25-basis point reduction in interest rates. The deposit rate now stands at 2.75%, its lowest since March 2023. With inflation standing within touching distance of the ECB’s target, this move reflects concerns around weak growth in the Eurozone. Indeed, data released this morning showed a stagnant economy in Q4 2024 and full year growth of just 0.7%.
Households’ confidence in future finances turns more downbeat
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Remote working is skewing regional growth data
Among the many economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, arguably the most significant has been the acceleration in the adoption of remote working. In addition to changing the structure of the labour market, this has had implications for the regional distribution of economic activity. This has been of particular detriment to London, shifting output away from the capital in favour of the UK’s other regions.
A recovery in disposable income is unlikely to change Britain's General Election result
The Prime Minister has announced that it is his working assumption that the next UK General Election will be held in the second half of 2024. Given the predictions in Cebr’s Top Ten for Twenty Four released last week, this doesn’t surprise us. This quick note summarises our best view on how electorally important economic variables might move over the coming year and hence affect the timing (and to a lesser extent the result) of the election.
UK inflation falls below 10% for first time since last August
UK inflation on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure slowed to 8.7% in April, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning in line with Cebr’s forecast for the month. The rate of price growth on the CPI measure has now fallen below 10% for the first time since August 2022. Core inflation, which excludes volatile consumption categories such as food and energy, accelerated to 6.8% in April, having stood at 6.2% in March.
Energy prices drive US inflation downwards, but core price growth remains stubborn
The annual rate of inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), stood at 5.0% in March. This is according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this afternoon. Inflation on the CPI-U measure has now slowed for nine consecutive months since June’s peak of 9.1%. March’s month-on-month slowdown was the largest of that sequence, with inflation being 1.0 percentage point lower than in February.
Sustaining the economic miracle: South Korea to break global top ten by 2026
In the aftermath of the Korean War, South Korea was one of the poorest economies on the planet. The war caused mass casualties and displacement of people, while also devastating the country’s infrastructure. In 1953, South Korea’s GDP per capita was lower than Somalia and Haiti, which remain two of the world’s poorest countries today, and the economy was almost entirely dependent on foreign aid. Only around a fifth of Koreans were literate, while the majority lived in poverty.
Real pay growth witnesses worst performance since 2009
The UK unemployment rate stood at 3.7% in the three months to January, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning. This was unchanged on the previous three-month period, ending in October. Indeed, the unemployment rate has remained constant for each of the last four readings. This measure is currently down by 0.3 percentage points on pre-pandemic levels.
UK economy dodged recession last year - but repeating the trick in 2023 looks unlikely
The UK economy contracted by 0.5% month-on-month in December, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday. This marked a return to contraction, following month-on-month growth in October and November. Output was stagnant across Q4 as a whole, relative to Q3. As such, the economy avoided a technical recession in the second half of last year. Across the entirety of 2022, output is estimated to have grown by 4.0%, down from 7.6% growth in 2021.
Why is France growing, and Britain isn’t?
Would you expect an economy with a high tax burden and one of the earliest retirement ages in the developed world to be amongst the top performers in the years since the pandemic? France is that economy, being relatively resilient amidst considerable global volatility, despite having the second highest tax-to-GDP ratio in the OECD and a younger average retirement age than the UK, Germany, or Spain.
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