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Articles by Sayad Baronyan
Tariff tremors: The global impact of US trade policies
Sayad Reteos Baronyan, PhD US trade policies, particularly tariffs, have far-reaching consequences, potentially disrupting trade flows, investor sentiment, and global equity markets. Recent trade policy shifts, alongside ongoing uncertainty, highlight the potential for significant economic and financial market disruption.
UK equities − a haven for income and value
Sayad Reteos Baronyan, PhD, The UK economy and its equity markets have been shaped by a confluence of domestic and global challenges in recent years. Understanding the dynamics from the lingering effects of the pandemic to shifts in inflationary pressures, and the performance of globally exposed UK corporations offer a clearer lens into the market’s trajectory. Economic Recovery: The UK economy has steadily recovered from the Covid-19 contraction, with a projected growth rate of nearly 2% in 2025.
Diverging paths in fixed income: The bond market's tale of fiscal strain and corporate calm
Sayad Reteos Baronyan, PhD The bond market is revealing a divergence between sovereign debt challenges and corporate financial stability, presenting a mixed outlook for investors. Government bond yields are rising due to fiscal burdens, uncertainty in inflation outlook and monetary policy. Corporate bond spreads are narrowing, reflecting investor confidence in corporate balance sheets despite economic fluctuations and uncertainty.
Do valuations predict long-term returns? Examining US Equities through various size and style indices
Sayad Reteos Baronyan, PhD Higher forward P/E ratios are linked to lower subsequent long-term returns, especially in large-cap, growth and broad equity indices. Valuations have minimal predictive power for small-cap returns due to their earnings volatility and higher sensitivity to economic cycles. Growth stocks show the strongest valuation-return relationship, while value stocks are less sensitive to valuations.
A FTSE USA success story
Sayad Reteos Baronyan, PhD, Global equity markets have risen many folds since the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008-2009 and the Covid shock in 2020. As Chart 1 shows, the FTSE All World, which represents medium and large companies from 49 countries in the developed (FTSE Developed) and emerging markets (FTSE Emerging), has gained 216% in returns between December 24, 2007 and August 30, 2024, representing an equivalent annualised return of 7.7% in US dollar terms.
US Elections - An Important Event for Financial Markets
U.S. presidential elections have exerted a large influence on financial markets. This analysis explores historical market trends around US presidential elections, illustrating how election-induced volatility shaped returns, and uncovers the nuanced patterns seen under different presidential administrations.
Australian equities - what is a lower dividend yield telling us?
Henry Morrison-Jones, CFA Sayad Reteos Baronyan, PhD Australia has offered high dividend yields among global markets, but this yield has decreased since 2022. We discuss what a change in dividend yield is telling us about the trend of Financials and Basic Materials – the major contributors to Australia’s dividend yield. Australia has long been recognised for having the highest average dividend yield among global markets. However, this yield has been on a downward trend since 2022.
Quants Corner
As the ongoing background political noise continue to increase uncertainty in the markets, any guidance from the central bank meetings this week would help investors. The minutes and the rate decision which will be released by The Federal Reserve (FED) on Wednesday will be closely watched by market participants. The most important point would probably be the expected number of rate hikes for 2019 by the FOMC members.
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