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Articles by Scott St George
The Gray Swan In Our Sky: Multibillion-Dollar Threat Of Solar Flares
As a new solar maximum approaches, the historic Carrington Event draws parallels to contemporary natural catastrophes, highlighting the potential for significant economic and operational losses. Like earthquakes that gradually build up stress before releasing it in sudden ruptures, the sun undergoes similar cycles of mounting magnetic tension. This cyclical solar activity occurs about every 11 years, marked by phases of low and high activity, known respectively as solar minimum and solar maximum.
Panama Drought: An Ebbing Tide Lifts All Boats' Transit Fees
Water levels in the Panama Canal have been sitting low since May 2023, which has caused shipping delays and record-setting transit fees. But is this protracted dry spell just bad luck or a sign of things to come? More than 500 hundred million tons of cargo.1 Over 14,000 transits. Roughly 4.7% of all goods transported by sea worldwide.2 For more than a century, the Panama Canal has served as an essential conduit in global transportation routes.
An Unwelcome Fast Start To The U.S. Severe Weather Season
Severe storms have set a fast pace for the first half of 2024. Will exposure growth and climate change combine to produce another year of high losses from convective storms? For the United States, summer isn't even in full swing yet, and it's already been an extremely active year for severe convective storms.1 To date, 2024 has the second-highest number of tornado reports (1,264) of any year in the past 15 years.
Safeguard Your Organization From Wildfire Risks Using Effective Risk Management Strategies
Wildfires cause catastrophic damage and pose a recurring threat in many parts of the world. Recent months have seen towns across Canada evacuated as fires have continued to affect various regions1 . In Europe, the emergency services are preparing for another busy summer after fires cause devastation in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece in 20232. In Asia, this year has already seen serious wildfires in countries including Bangladesh and Nepal3 .
Predicting Renewable Energy Droughts And Surplus By Modeling Tropical Pacific Climate
In this article from the 2024 Renewable Energy Market Review, we examine how El Niño and La Niña impact global weather, helping predict high or low renewable power generation months ahead. El Niño and La Niña are the leading causes of year-over-year changes in global weather. Keeping a watch on the tropical Pacific can help you predict high or low renewable power generation months in advance. Renewable energy from wind, water or solar power is intrinsically variable.
From The Tropical Pacific, El Niño Is In The Wind
For three years in a row, Earth's largest ocean has been stuck in its La Niña configuration. Now the Pacific has flipped to El Niño, businesses should prepare for record-high temperatures, weird weather, & slower economic growth. The tropical Pacific Ocean has been remarkably dependable these past few years. Since the start of 2020, the trade winds have blown west across the equator in their usual fashion, pushing warm water away from South America and toward Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.
WTW Research Network Q2 2023 Newsletter
For a hardening insurance market, with increasing premiums and decreasing capacity, the arrival of El Niño is likely to create yet more challenges. Costs associated to this natural climate pattern can soar into the trillions of dollars around the globe – in the early 1990s El Niño led over $4 trillion in global losses, with the 1997-98 El Niño costing over $5.5 trillion.
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