Ex-Credit Suisse Analyst, PM of the $DARP ETF. I help you understand and invest in commodities: etf.grizzle.com/
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Articles by Scott Willis
Yields, Yen, and Yield Curve Games: Inside Bessent’s Playbook
The stress test of the new Fed chairman is under way with the clear break of the 4.5% level on the US 10-year Treasury bond yield in recent weeks though bond volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, remains relatively low.
America's Deteriorating Finances and Why You Shouldn't Own the Dollar
One topic highlighted in this column of late has been the dramatic deterioration in America’s net international investment position which Stephen Miran, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, seemed almost oblivious to when he wrote his by now infamous 41-page paper in November calling on governments to lock in ownership of long-dated Treasury bonds in return for America’s so-called “security umbrella” (see Hudson Bay Capital report: “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading...
Has China's Property Market Bottomed?
Has China’s property market bottomed? There has been a noticeable pick up in residential property transactions in the past two months following the easing measures announced by Beijing in late September.
Why India Will Be The Best Emerging Market Over the Next 10 Years
With everybody focused on the US presidential election, this is a good time to look again at India which this writer continues to view as the best long-term opportunity for growth orientated equity investors globally, both on a five-year view and a ten-year view, as previously discussed here (see The Best Global Equity Story is India, 4 October 2022).
What a "No Landing" Means for Your Portfolio
It is important in observing markets to monitor alternative narratives and, like any good trader, not to be stuck rigidly to any specific view. If this writer has been focused over the past year and more on the considerable lags in the impact of monetary tightening in this cycle, the current reality is that financial markets continue to question the soft-landing consensus prevailing at the start of this year on the growing view that there will be no landing at all.
West Red Lake Gold: The Future is Bright for Mining
The highlight for us during the PDAC mining conference this year was a fireside chat with Shane Williams, CEO of West Red Lake Gold (TSXV:WRLG). Over a couple glasses of fine Irish whisky Shane discussed the state of the mining industry and the opportunity for young people to make an impact in a vital pillar of the global economy. Shane has a strong track record as an efficient mine builder, an engineer who found his calling building mines around the world.
Data Center Investment Conference & Expo (DICE): Southeast
WHY YOU CAN'T MISS THIS ATLANTA DATA CENTER EVENT What You'll Learn From Data Center Owners, Developers & Tenants: Atlanta has seen a surge in absorption in 2023 - will the region continue growing with more developments in 2024? How does Atlanta compare to the other southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee)?
DICE Southeast
WHY YOU CAN'T MISS THIS ATLANTA DATA CENTER EVENT What You'll Learn From Data Center Owners, Developers & Tenants: Atlanta has seen a surge in absorption in 2023 - will the region continue growing with more developments in 2024? How does Atlanta compare to the other southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee)?
The New Geopolitical Power Play: Who Owns the Nuclear Enrichment Capacity?
Ever had one of those “aha” moments when you realize something’s not just good, it’s gold? That’s what’s happening with nuclear power. It’s green, safe, and reliable – a triple threat in the world of energy. But hold your horses, it’s not all sunshine and roses. We’re about to dive into the nitty-gritty of nuclear power’s comeback, its challenges, and the geopolitical tango that’s got the world on its toes.
With Bank Lending on the Decline, Why Aren't We in a Recession Already?
The action in Big Tech stocks has continued to be amazingly resilient, helped by the AI story, positive cash flow generation and the fact that these are global plays with an average 55% of their revenues derived from outside America. Never mind that earnings multiples look very high. For example, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia are trading on 29x, 34x, 31x and 26x 12-month forward earnings.
Opinion: Fostering trust and transparency in the NDIS
In this guest post, Scott Willis, the National President of the Australian Physiotherapy Association, responds to recent comments by NDIS Minister Bill Shorten MP about ‘price gouging’ by physiotherapy providers. The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) has been making headlines recently, and while it’s crucial to address concerns about unscrupulous operators, we must also be fair and accurate in our assessments.
The Pieces are Falling into Place with Anfield's Latest Acquisition
Anfield Energy (TSX.V: AEC) (OTCQB: ANLDF) is a uranium company with a simple but ambitious goal. To become a major North American uranium processor. The reason this is important is because the US hasn’t been a major processor of uranium in decades. However geopolitics is rapidly reshaping the uranium supply chain, creating opportunities for those companies agile enough to take advantage. Anfield is positioning itself to become one of those companies.
Are US Small Businesses Ok?
The small business sector has become very important to monitor as regards the state of the American economy. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business survey is the key data point. The latest small business hiring plans index showed that a net 17% of small business owners are planning to create new jobs in the next three months in April. This is up from 15% in March which was the lowest level since May 2020, but well down from the recent high of 32% in August 2021.
Largo Reports Q1 Production Beat and Imminent Vanadium Battery Deployment
2023 looks increasingly like THE key transition year for Largo (TSX:LGO). For the last two years the company has been executing on ambitious plans to become not only one of the largest global producers of vanadium but also a major player in the rapidly growing battery storage industry.
As Global Trade Fractures, Inflation will Rise
It has, of late, become increasingly relevant to talk less about the retreat from globalization and more about the increasing balkanization of the global economy. This trend is also encouraged by the growing desire to reshuffle global supply chains and reduce dependence on China which still accounted for 30% of world manufacturing output in 2021.
A Conversation with Dev Randhawa, CEO of Fission 3.0
Why Nuclear Reactor Construction is at a Global 25-year High. China woke up and is building nuclear facilities out of necessity, due to waste and pollution in major cities. The world is realizing that wind and solar and wind energy can’t serve the entire market; renewables aren’t ready to replace fossil fuels.
A Conversation with Cory Belyk CEO of CanAlaska Uranium
An Overview of CanAlaska CanAlaska is a junior uranium explorer focused on the Athabasca region of northeastern Saskatchewan Canada. The company also has significant nickel and copper assets in Manitoba. The Athabasca region is known as the Saudi Arabia of Uranium with larger resources in the ground than almost anywhere else. CanAlaska’s land package is over 740,000 acres directly west of Cameco’s McArthur River uranium mine, the largest uranium mine in the world.
A Conversation with Corey Dias Founder of Anfield Uranium
The Russian Conflict is an Opportunity for US Uranium Corey Dias, CEO and founder of Anfield Uranium sat down with the Grizzle team to discuss the significant opportunity the Russia conflict has created for US based uranium suppliers. The US is the largest consumer of uranium globally and is the most incentivized to wean itself off Russian imports of uranium due to geopolitical concerns.
A Conversation with William Sheriff, Chairman of enCore Energy
The History of Encore Energy enCore energy is a second act for the management team behind uranium producer Energy Metals Corp. Energy Metals was a very successful uranium exploration company that operated from 2004-2008 before it was acquired by Uranium One for $1.5 billion at the height of the last bull market. Energy Metal’s success hinged on William Sheriff’s successful consolidation of the uranium sector. At Energy Metals Sheriff compiled the largest domestic uranium resource base in history.
Canada the Global Battery Hub - A Conversation with Canada Nickel
Grizzle sat down with Mark Selby, the chairman and CEO of Canada Nickel to discuss the future of battery metals in North America. Mr. Selby, along with other battery metals executives we spoke with is a true believer that we are headed into a supercycle for Nickel, lithium, cobalt, vanadium and other critical battery materials. The supercycle will be driven by a 5x increase in nickel demand from the battery storage industry over the next 8 years.
The Future of Lithium Extraction Tech with Red Cloud
The lithium undersupply is truly historic. Demand for batteries is forecast to far outstrip the lithium industries ability to supply the raw materials needed over the next 8-10 years. However, the ingenuity of humanity always seems to find a way and new lithium extraction technologies may be the solution.
The Bright Future of Vanadium - A Conversation with Largo Inc
Grizzle sat down with the Chairman of Largo Inc, Alberto Arias, to learn how vanadium is quietly becoming one of the most important pillars of our green future. Vanadium has historically been a specialized metal used to decrease emmissions from the building and steel making industries, however demand trends are rapidly changing. Of all the battery metals discussed at battery metals con, vanadium has potentially the most to gain if it is adopted en mass by the renewable energy industry.
The Future of Production Agreements - A Conversation With Grid Metals
Grid Metals and the Future of Mining Production Agreements Grid may not have set out to be different, but through smart businesses decision making and pragmatic growth they may now be writing the template for how commodity explorers make money. In the mining space, building a production and processing facility always follows exploration and with actual sales to the market the final step to revenue.
Why Having Tesla as Your Neighbor Matters - A Conversation with ACME Lithium
A Bright Future for Domestic Lithium According to the United States Geological Survey, the US has the fifth largest lithium resource globally. Obviously costs play an important role as well, but starting with an abundant commodity makes the chances of financial success that much higher. Top 10 Countries for Lithium While the resource picture in America is bright, the real potential comes from an industry expectation of explosive production growth over the next 8 years.
The Yen is on the Ropes, is Yield Curve Control Next?
This writer has continued to take a positive view on energy stocks. That said, energy and other cyclical commodity-related sectors are clearly vulnerable as concerns about slowing economies mount, and the resulting concerns about demand destruction rise. This can be seen in the market action in recent weeks. The MSCI World Value Index has underperformed the MSCI World Growth Index by 9.6% since late May.
LNG is a Natural Gas Gamechanger
Hi, welcome to the oil drum report, where I’m going to teach how energy markets work. I’ll be passing on the tricks of the trade I’ve learned from more than 15 years of investing in energy at two of the world’s largest banks. The inaugural episode of the oil drum report is about what else, gas! You might think I’m joking around, but gas markets really are tightly linked with oil markets in many parts of the world, especially in North America.
All Eyes are On the Fed's Favorite Gauge of Inflation
Shoot first and ask questions later. This is the perhaps understandable and certainly predictable response of governments to the emergence of the, by all accounts, highly infectious Omicron Covid variant. So far it appears, from the South African experience at least, that Omicron is far more infectious than it is deadly.
China Thinks the US Will Blink First in the Trade War
The Chinese renminbi remains in an upward trend against the US dollar, even though the pace of appreciation has slowed markedly this year. The renminbi has risen by 1.3% against the US dollar year-to-date, following a 6.7% appreciation in 2020.
Dutch Bros Coffee is Starbucks for the Next Generation
Dutch Bros, the popular west cost drive through coffee chain is going public. The IPO is set for Wednesday September 15th on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker BROS. From a single push cart in Oregon to 471 locations 30 years later, Dutch Bros has built a real contender to the Starbucks coffee crown.
Weber vs Traeger: Who Makes the Best Grill and the Best Stock?
Weber and Traeger are not only selling grills anymore, they are also selling stock. The two largest national grilling brands are now public and you have to decide if your favorite grill is also your favorite stock. Grizzle is here to help with a comprehensive guide comparing these two companies. Everything you need to know about the grilling market and the differences between Traeger (Ticker: COOK) and Weber (Ticker: WEBR).
Robinhood is Now a Meme, But More Important is What Comes Next?
It’s official you can buy Robinhood stock, on Robinhood. After what seemed like months of breathless media coverage, the digital-first broker everyone loves to hate is now a publicly-traded stock. In the here and now, Robinhood started out as a disappointment for investors with the stock falling 10% on its first day as a public company. However, what matters more than stock’s initial debut, is how it performs in the days and weeks that follow.
Corsair Gaming is on the Move and You Shouldn't be Surprised.
Corsair Gaming (CRSR) is back in the news again with a huge day yesterday. The stock was up 12% yesterday as sell side analysts raise expectations for the company; alongside WallStreetBets putting a target on the back of its next favorite meme stock. Corsair stock opened 26% higher on the FOMO craze, while closing up about 12% on the day.
With the Redecan Acquisition, HEXO is Two Years Away from a Reckoning
HEXO Corp (TSX: HEXO; NYSE: HEXO) announced last week that it is acquiring private grower Redecan, Canada’s largest privately-owned licensed producer, for $925 million CAD in cash and stock. The $925 million purchase price will be paid to Redecan shareholders ($400 million cash on closing, $525 million paid on closing through the issuance of HEXO common shares).
Are US Regulators Coming for Bitcoin?
One of the identifying characteristics of the crypto currency space is that crypto assets trade 24/7 dispensing with outmoded bourgeois concepts such as weekends and stock exchanges’ opening and closing hours. This writer’s attention was caught one Sunday recently by a “trending story” about a crash in crypto prices on unconfirmed reports that the US Treasury is preparing to investigate financial institutions for money laundering carried out through digital assets.
Roku 1Q Earnings - So Good the Bulls Came out of Hiding
To learn more about Roku and the streaming industry check out the Grizzle Stock Safari on Substack. Roku (ROKU) reported earnings after the bell this afternoon that far surpassed Wall Street’s expectations. The company is one of the few that put up results so good, even the bearish stock market sentiment couldn’t keep the stock down after hours with shares up 9% as we type.
Etsy Q1 Earnings: Is the COVID-19 Growth Gone?
Etsy (ETSY) reported earnings after the bell this afternoon that beat Wall Street’s expectations, but forward growth guidance was a big dissapointment causing the stock to fall 10% after hours. Just like many other COVID beneficiaries, Etsy’s growth will struggle to match up against an absolutely monstrous 2020. Investors will likely continue to look elsewhere for growth with interest rates on the rise and the company trading at a 50% premium to all other apparel retailers.
Coinbase IPO Guide: Don't Sleep on This Crypto Freight Train
Coinbase Global Inc. has announced it will be going public by way of a direct listing on the NASDAQ under the ticker COIN on April 14. In this comprehensive guide to Coinbase’s direct listing we are going to help you understand why Coinbase is the perfect vehicle to play the growth of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Check us out live on Youtube at 11:00am Est April 14th as we dive deep into the IPO as soon as the stock starts trading What Does Coinbase Do?
Ready Player One: The Definitive Roblox IPO Guide
Roblox, the maker of the most popular online world since Fortnight is finally going public. Should investors jump into the metaverse with their wallets open or is Roblox just another overvalued video game company? All your questions will be answered in this definitive guide to the Roblox IPO. What Does Roblox Do? Roblox is a 3-D online platform that focuses on what they call “the human co-experience”.
Danimer Scientific: The Bioplastic 15X Home Run
As the world attempts to transition away from single-use plastics, Danimer is one of the few company’s offering an alternative. In recent years, plastic has become a dirty word and now could even become a banned material. For those of you who missed it, late last year Canada unveiled a long list of single-use plastic products (e.g. straws, grocery bags, etc.) to be banned by the end of the year. Europe has already followed suit, planning to ban single-use plastic by the end of 2021 as well.
How to Find the Next Wallstreetbets "YOLO" Stock
At this point, many investors have heard of the Reddit channel Wallstreetbets (WSB). But if you haven’t, here’s what you missed: • WallStreetBets is a subreddit channel, a subreddit channel is an online group, or community, on the social media website Reddit.
Locked & Lit: The Grizzle Cannabis Portfolio
The US cannabis industry is one of the most attractive growth sectors in the stock market for investors. The industry offers big top-line growth and companies who are cracking open a completely new legal market. However, investing in emerging growth industries is inherently risky. Most stocks will fail to live up to their hyped growth expectations and many will go to zero.
The Affirm IPO is a Bet on the Future of Peloton
Affirm is the most hyped private company set to go public so far in 2021. Founded by Max Levchin, a legend in Silicon Valley for founding Paypal as well as Slide which was sold to Google. To help you decide whether Affirm is worth an investment, we’ve put together this comprehensive guide looking at factors like: What does Affirm do? The economics of the business The biggest risk facing Affirm What the stock is worth today and 10 years from now? What Does Affirm Do?
Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers Doesn't Need Debt to Grow
Grizzle sat down with the “Canna-Queen” herself Kim Rivers to talk about all things Trulieve. Kim is always transparent and willing to help investors understand exactly what’s on the horizon for Trulieve. There are lots of interesting things going on behind the scenes and Kim pulls back the curtain for us in this wide-ranging interview.
Why Curaleaf Chairman Boris Jordan is Building Value Not Cashing Out
Grizzle sat down with the chairman of the largest cannabis company in North America to talk about the vast potential of this emerging growth industry. If you didn’t understand the upside from potstocks before, you will after watching this interview. Curaleaf chairman Boris Jordan is dropping industry insights you won’t find anywhere else, including why a huge regulatory catalyst could be coming within the next six months.
Airbnb IPO: Don't Sleep on This King of Home Rentals
Airbnb is going public this month and has the distinction of being the largest December public offering in what is turning into a packed IPO month. To get you ready for the stock’s debut we’ve poured over the financial filings to figure out what this company is all about. We think the pandemic is handing investors a gift with this one. A true unicorn at a discount. Let’s Dive in..
C3.ai IPO - Houston We Have a Growth Problem
C3ai is yet another hyped up software as a service (Saas) stock going public this month. However, with massive consumer companies like DoorDash and AirBnb hogging the spotlight, this may end up being the low-key IPO of December. To help you decide if you should ignore the big guys and put your money into C3.ai’s relatively puny $3 billion IPO we are going to break down the valuation in detail and how you should trade it.
What 3 Things Will Cause the DoorDash IPO to Fail?
Grizzle covers of all the latest IPOs. Don’t miss the next Zoom or Peloton, SUBSCRIBE for free DoorDash is poised to be the second hottest IPO of the year behind only AirBnb. To get you ready, we’ve scrubbed the IPO filing (S-1) to put together the three pillars that are critical to the success of the company. If any pillar crumbles, so will DoorDash. To do it we’re using visuals, six to be exact.
The Landscape is Shifting for Chinese Fintech
The US presidential election appears to be finally over. But it remains unclear how the issue of regulation of “Big Tech” will be impacted by the outcome. In the final days of the campaign, Donald Trump began targeting Big Tech in his speeches. This seemed to follow the extraordinary development in October whereby Facebook and Twitter removed a New York Post article about Joe Biden’s son Hunter from their platforms.
The U.S. Election Cannabis Playbook Part 2
In part 1 of the election playbook, you learned how cannabis laws will change depending on how voters cast their ballots on November 3rd. Part 2 is where things get fun. We’re talking cannabis stocks. What we’re buying to profit from every election outcome. Grizzle built four portfolios using disciplined quantitative screens to ensure risk is balanced against potential stock price upside.
Aphria 1Q 2021 Earnings - Prices in Freefall
Aphria reported disappointing revenue that missed expectation by 8% and was also a decline from last quarter. The market hates declining revenue in what should be a high growth industry and sold off the stock hard as a result. EBITDA (a proxy for cashflow) is improving, but is growing slowly and remains at low levels compared to the margins US cannabis companies are generating. The one bright spot was the volumes of cannabis sold in the quarter.
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