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Articles by Sebastian Eckardt
Cambodia 2030: Economic slowdown offers opportunity to speed up reforms
Cambodia has made remarkable development progress over the past decades. In the decade prior to COVID-19, it sustained an average growth rate of seven percent per year, all while keeping public debt below 40 percent of the GDP. This rapid growth translated into equally rapid gains in poverty reduction with the poverty rate in Cambodia declining to 18 percent in 2020 from 26 percent six years earlier. This means 1.2 million fewer Cambodians live on $2.70 a day or less.
Dwight Anderson sees explosive returns ahead
Mankind's love affair with copper dates back to some of our most ancient civilizations, well before written records. Archaeologists from Haifa University located a copper tool near the Jordan River estimated to be 7,000 years old. A special metal, the red element could be used directly without the need for processing or later scientific revolutions.
Climate damage is worsening faster than expected, but there's still reason for optimism
Mankind's love affair with copper dates back to some of our most ancient civilizations, well before written records. Archaeologists from Haifa University located a copper tool near the Jordan River estimated to be 7,000 years old. A special metal, the red element could be used directly without the need for processing or later scientific revolutions.
The Cost and Affordability of Homes Around the World
How much do homes cost in other countries, and are they affordable for residents? Here's a ranking of 42 capital cities, where the median home price ranges from nearly $5 million to below $200,000. The housing market keeps dragging its feet in the U.S. Prices fell in January slightly, marking a full year of declines, according to Zillow (ZG) - Get Free Report, even though U.S. home values are still 6.2% higher than a year ago.
Asia’s trade at a turning point
Policymakers in Asia are rightly focused on the potential reconfiguration of global supply chains, given the implications these shifts may have for the development of their export-oriented and highly open economies. While the focus on potential shifts on the supply side of the global and regional trading system is well-justified, equally dramatic shifts on the demand side deserve as much attention.
Looking beyond the Energy Price Shock to China’s Low Carbon Transition
Authors: Martin Raiser, Sebastian Eckardt The conflict in Ukraine has caused a massive shock to the global economy. Crude oil prices in early March spiked to as high as $140 per barrel, levels that were last seen in 2008. While prices have since come down from these peaks, they remain elevated, fueling already high inflation and hurting consumers and economic growth worldwide. Faced with this shock, countries everywhere are reappraising priorities, putting resilience at front and center.
How China’s savings could help save the planet
In a letter to CEOs earlier this year, Larry Fink, chairman of BlackRock—the world’s largest asset manager—spoke about a “tectonic shift in the global allocation of capital,” emphasizing climate change as a growing investment risk but also pointing to the climate transition as a historic investment opportunity. With BlackRock’s almost $9 trillion in assets under management, Mr. Fink’s views are likely to have an outsized impact on financial asset allocation.
Secular stagnation, climate action, and the natural rate of interest
More than a decade ago, the Stern report on the economics of climate change triggered an intense debate about the appropriate social discount rates to be used in assessing the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation. This was not merely an academic dispute but a question with immense practical implications. Essentially, the debate was about whether we should act vigorously now or gradually later to lower the risk of climate change.
Looking beyond the energy price shock to China's low carbon transition
Secondly, while higher energy prices may boost the short-term global supply of fossil fuels, in the longer-term outlook, higher and more volatile energy prices will push incentives for energy importers to diversify away from fossil fuels. This will likely catalyze individual and global efforts to decarbonize energy systems, boosting global demand for low carbon technologies and alternative sources of energy.
Pandemic recovery a lesson for five-year plan
(SHI YU / CHINA DAILY) China's economic recovery from the COVID-19 shock has been swift but uneven. Credit-fueled infrastructure and real estate investment and a surging trade surplus were the main drivers, while private consumption has trailed, with household incomes and consumer spending recovering more slowly. This pattern reflects China's policy response which largely focused on public investment, protecting companies and ensuring a swift reopening of factories.
The decoupling the world is waiting for: China’s green growth breakthrough
After a disappointing COP25 in Madrid, the hopes for decisive climate action now reside on a better outcome in Glasgow this year, where countries will be expected to raise their commitments to emission reductions. As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is in a unique position to decelerate the pace of global emissions.
How can Vietnam avoid the middle-income trap?
Vietnam is one of the great economic success stories of the 21st century thus far. Just a generation ago, the country was one of the poorest in the world, scarred by decades of conflict and with an economy stifled by a central planning system. Following three decades of virtually uninterrupted rapid growth, Vietnam has emerged as a thriving middle-income economy. Foreign investors are beating a path to its door, demanding to participate in and contribute to its growing prosperity.
Vietnam’s manufacturing miracle: Lessons for developing countries
If you are reading this blog post on a smart phone, there is a good chance that you are looking at a device that was made in Vietnam. Worldwide, one in 10 smartphones is produced in Vietnam. Mobile phones are Vietnam’s number one export, generating export revenues of more than $45 billion in 2017. This success is a symptom of a broader trend that defies global norms. While global trade has stagnated, Vietnam’s trade has soared to 190 percent of GDP in 2017 from 70 percent in 2007.
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