Shanthi Rexaline
Verified
As seen in:
Stocktwits,
MSN,
MSN Ireland,
MSN Italy,
Markets Insider,
MSN España,
Aol,
Yahoo Finance,
Yahoo Finance Singapore,
Yahoo! Finance Hong Kong,
Flipboard
and
Reading the market’s pulse across asset classes. Faith-grounded. Writing what the world teaches me, one real event at a time. ✍️ Investeer360 👇
Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Shanthi Rexaline
NQ Holds Up Despite Hot NFP: Why Aren’t Higher Rates Crushing Tech?
The August employment report delivered a major upside surprise, but Nasdaq futures have shown notable resilience despite a sharp repricing in Treasury yields and September Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased 162,000 in August, nearly three times the roughly 55,000 consensus estimate. July payrolls were also revised to a 21,000 gain from the previously reported 23,000 decline.
Dollar Recovers Into NFP as Traders Reassess Fed Rate Risks
The U.S. dollar is staging a modest rebound ahead of Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trading near 99.08 and gaining about 0.18%. The move comes after a sharp decline Thursday as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller pushed back against expectations for an imminent rate hike. The dollar’s rebound suggests traders are reluctant to extend the selloff ahead of a potentially market-moving employment report.
WTI Above $91, But the Curve Says the Oil Shock Won’t Last: What $7 of Backwardation Means
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trade above $91 a barrel, but the futures curve is telling a more nuanced story. October WTI is trading at $91.40, compared with $88.02 for November and $84.63 for December. That creates a nearly $7 premium between October and December, a steep backwardation that highlights just how much the market is paying for barrels available now.
Fed's Chris Waller Puts September Pause Back on the Table as Jobless Claims Hold Low and AI Imports Surge
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has given markets a clearer map for the September policy decision, and Thursday's economic data make the path more complicated for the market. In prepared remarks delivered at the Reuters Newsmaker Interview in Washington D.C., Waller said he is willing to support holding interest rates at their current level if August inflation continues to improve, but he would consider a rate hike if inflation comes in hot.
Broadcom's Guidance Miss Lands on NQ at the Worst Possible Moment: 3 Things That Decide September
Broadcom delivered another blockbuster quarter, but the Nasdaq did not get the reassurance investors were looking for. Fiscal 2026 third-quarter revenue jumped 86% year over year (YoY) to $29.6 billion, adjusted earnings reached $3.32 a share, and artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor revenue surged 221% to $16.7 billion. Yet Broadcom shares fell sharply after the report as investors focused on the outlook rather than the rear-view mirror.
Nasdaq Faces a Fresh Test as Broadcom Reports: Last Quarter’s Beat Still Sent Shares 12% Lower
As artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) prepares to report its quarterly results, tech stocks are coming under pressure as investors navigate an increasingly hostile macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. A Federal Reserve pause or rate cut is now facing a much higher hurdle, as a fresh geopolitical flare-up has sent crude prices soaring and reignited concerns over inflation. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have also pushed global bond yields sharply higher.
Oil Retreats from 5-Week High: Thinning Reserves Meet the Iran Target That Decides the Next Move
Oil is entering a new phase of the Iran conflict. Oil climbed to a five-week high, with the WTI crude breaking above $90 and Brent above $95 as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities raise fresh concerns about Gulf supply. Both benchmarks have since given back some of the gains. The catalyst that precipitated the spike was the U.S. strikes of Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island, an escalation that extinguished any near-term hope of a negotiated opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Dollar Just Became the Trade of the Week: Iran, Oil and Yields Are Why
The U.S. dollar is entering September with a catalyst that was missing for much of the summer. Rising oil prices are now reinforcing, rather than undermining, the case for higher U.S. interest rates. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have pushed crude sharply higher, with WTI nearing $90 and Brent crossing $94 as concerns over disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz return to the market.
US Manufacturing Sends Conflicting Hiring Signals as Orders Cool: NFP Is the Decider
The most interesting signal in August's manufacturing activity data isn't that U.S. factories are expanding. It is where the strength is showing up. The S&P Global U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) remained firmly in expansion territory at 53.9 in August, but output growth slowed to its weakest pace since February and new-order growth also eased.
US 10Y Yield Nears 4.80% as Iran Risk Drives Bond Sell-off, NDX Under Pressure
The U.S. bond market is starting September under renewed pressure, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing toward 4.80%, as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions push oil prices higher and revive concerns that an energy shock could keep inflation elevated. The yield reached roughly 4.79%, its highest level since January 2025, while Brent crude moved above $92 a barrel.
NDX Reclaims Ground in August, But September Seasonality Puts the Rally to the Test
July nearly broke the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. August put it back together but it did so in a month that is historically kind to tech, right before rolling into the month that historically isn’t.
Warsh's Hawkish Pivot Sent September Rate Hike Odds Soaring to Over 60%. The Dollar Shrugged — Here's Why
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered one of the clearest hawkish signals of his tenure, pushing financial markets to dramatically rethink the odds of a September interest-rate increase. Markets now price roughly a 63.9% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September meeting, up sharply from around 35% before Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and 41.43% a week ago. Rate Move Odds Source: CME Yet the dollar's response has been surprisingly restrained.
WTI Reclaims $86 as Hormuz Tensions Escalate: Is $90 Next for Crude?
WTI crude is back above $86 a barrel, as renewed U.S.-Iran military tensions revive fears of further disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran retaliated with missile attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan. These missiles, however, intercepted. The escalation has injected fresh uncertainty into efforts to restore more normal shipping through the critical energy corridor.
Warsh Raises the Bar for NQ Bulls as Weaker Jobs and Nervous Consumers Complicate the Fed’s Outlook
The U.S. economic picture is sending conflicting signals, leaving markets to weigh a hawkish Federal Reserve against evidence that both the labor market and consumers may be losing momentum. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech Friday to make clear that inflation remains the Fed’s overriding concern, even as fresh labor-market revisions and the latest University of Michigan consumer survey point to growing economic strains.
America’s $40 Trillion Question: When Do Bonds Start Winning Against Stocks?
As Treasury yields climb alongside America’s growing debt burden, investors face a question that could shape the next phase of the bull market: when does fixed income become attractive enough to pull capital away from equities? The $40 trillion U.S. government debt milestone has not, by itself, triggered a broad risk-off reaction.
NQ’s Rebound Faces Triple Test: Warsh at Jackson Hole, Payrolls Revision and Consumer Sentiment
Nasdaq 100 futures are struggling to extend Thursday's technology-led rally, with NQ down about 0.23%, as traders shift their attention from Nvidia's earnings boost to a concentrated cluster of macro catalysts.
Gold Futures Hover at $4,665: Can Warsh Give Bulls the Catalyst to Reclaim $4,700?
Gold futures are hovering around $4,665.60, leaving the metal at an important short-term technical pivot as traders await Federal Reserve ChairKevin Warsh's appearance at Jackson Hole. Gold's YTD Journey The yellow metal’s move to around $4,665 represents a solid gain for the year, but the path has been anything but linear. The metal surged to a record high above $5,586.20 in January, subsequently underwent a prolonged correction toward the $4,000 area, and has since staged a powerful recovery.
Dow, Russell 2K Futures Lag Broader Market And Techs After Nvidia Beat: Is the Rally Narrowing?
The latest futures action is revealing an important divergence beneath the surface of the U.S. equity rally.
Nvidia Beat Big. So Why Did Investors Take Hours to Buy It?
Heading into Nvidia’s print, traders were already on the edge. The Nasdaq E-mini futures (NQ) had climbed nearly 0.6% and the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) were up 0.3% on Tuesday, a day before the D-day, as traders positioned themselves for Nvidia’s earnings. By Wednesday, the optimism tempered as traders braced for the results, alongside a hotter-than-expected inflation reading.
Nvidia’s Earnings Bar Keeps Rising Even as Nasdaq Futures Are Pricing a Different Kind of AI Risk
Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings have become less about whether the company can beat Wall Street and more about whether it can beat expectations that have already factored in another exceptional quarter. That distinction matters far more for Nasdaq futures than the headline earnings per share (EPS) number. Nvidia reports fiscal 2027 second-quarter results after Wednesday’s close, with analysts looking for $92.18 billion in revenue, about double the year-earlier level.
July PCE Inflation Runs Hotter Than Expected; Core Rate Holds Steady Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Address
The story has been updated with additional details from the economic reports, market reaction and analyst comments. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, dubbed as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in a tad above forecast, although the core rate aligned with the consensus, a Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report released Wednesday showed. The mixed inflation reading could decisively tilt the odds in favor of another pause at the September rate-setting meeting.
US Consumer Confidence Slips in August as Future Outlook Darkens; What It Means for Markets
U.S. consumer confidence weakened slightly in August, but the headline decline masked a sharper deterioration in households’ expectations for the economy, labor market and income. The split between improving views of current conditions and growing pessimism about the months ahead could become an increasingly important signal for markets as investors weigh inflation, interest rates and the resilience of consumer spending. The findings are based on survey data collected between Aug. 3 and Aug.16.
Nasdaq's Reckoning Week: 3 Catalysts That Could Shape the NDX’s Next Move in the Next 48 Hours
The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) enters one of the most consequential stretches of the week, with three major catalysts set to arrive within a 48-hour window. After a period of heightened volatility driven by rising Treasury yields and questions surrounding the sustainability of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, investors are preparing for a decisive test of both earnings and macroeconomic expectations.
NQ Clings to 29,200 Support: Does Nvidia's Earnings Report Break the Floor or Spark the Next Rally
Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) enter a pivotal week with the contract clinging to the 29,200 area, leaving traders to decide whether this level can hold or whether another leg lower is developing. The setup comes after a weak week for technology stocks, with rising Treasury yields adding pressure to rate-sensitive growth assets, and as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia's earnings, Jackson Hole and other macro catalysts.
Gold's Rally Is Getting Crowded: Where Does Positioning Say the Next Move Goes?
Gold's powerful 2026 rally is increasingly becoming a crowded trade, but the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data suggests speculative positioning has not yet reached the kind of extreme levels typically associated with a major top. The latest CFTC disaggregated report for the week ended Aug. 18 shows Managed Money traders holding 154,595 long contracts against just 12,947 shorts, leaving the group net long 141,648 contracts.
Nasdaq 100's Wild Week Is Ending. Jackson Hole and Nvidia Could Decide What's Next
The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is heading toward the end of a roller-coaster week, as rising Treasury yields, renewed inflation concerns and worries over the path of Federal Reserve policy have pressured technology stocks. The index fell for a fifth straight session on Thursday, while the broader Nasdaq was on track for its first weekly loss since late July.
Oil Nears 1-Month High and Real Test for WTI Crude Is $88
Crude oil is once again commanding investors' attention. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have surged above $87 a barrel, their highest level in nearly a month, while Brent crude has climbed past $94. The rally has extended to a fifth consecutive session, fueled by mounting concerns that disruptions to Middle Eastern oil flows may persist far longer than markets initially expected. The immediate question for traders is no longer whether oil can rally.
US Labor Market Holds Firm as Jobless Claims Fall and Factory Outlook Strengthens
The U.S. economy is entering the second half of August with a labor market that continues to show resilience, while manufacturing activity is signaling a potentially stronger growth outlook. Initial jobless claims fell in the latest week, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's August manufacturing survey showed an acceleration in current activity, stronger hiring and an unusually upbeat six-month outlook.
Iran Reportedly Weighs Strikes Beyond Gulf: Why the Risk to Oil and Equities Is Growing
U.S. stock-index futures were already struggling to find direction Wednesday as investors weighed renewed Middle East tensions alongside elevated Treasury yields. Oil, meanwhile, continued to climb, with the West Texas Intermediate crude (CL) hovering just under $85-a-barrel, as uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persisted. The latest concern is that the conflict could expand beyond the immediate Gulf theater.
Markets Shrug Off Canada Tariff Pause: Why Futures Barely Moved on a Deal That Isn't Signed
U.S. stock-index futures barely reacted after President Donald Trump announced a three-day pause on planned 50% tariffs targeting roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports, a move that would normally be expected to spark a relief rally. Instead, traders largely looked through the headline, treating it as a temporary reprieve rather than a definitive breakthrough. U.S. equity futures showed little enthusiasm after the announcement, while Canadian assets posted only modest gains.
Oil Jumps as Ceasefire Lapses And US-Iran Standoff Drags On, Complicating Fed's Next Move
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices topped $85-a-barrel yet again on Tuesday as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired and hopes for a quick agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded, putting a fresh geopolitical premium into energy markets. Brent crude breached $91 a barrel, with both benchmarks reaching their highest levels since late July. The move matters beyond the energy market. A renewed oil shock threatens to revive inflation pressures.
NQ Futures Stumble at 30K as Tech's Rate Fears Build Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
The Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures (NQ) retreated sharply on Tuesday, pulling back from the psychologically important 30,000 level as surging Treasury yields and rising oil prices weighed on technology shares ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report next week. The sell-off marked a notable shift in sentiment after weeks of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven gains had propelled the index toward fresh record highs.
Gold Rally Stretches Too Far, Too Fast; Does Technicals Warn of an Unwind Despite Fed Tailwinds
Gold's recent surge has been driven by exactly the kind of backdrop bulls like to see: softer U.S. economic data, a weaker dollar, and rapidly declining expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. Yet after climbing more than 8% this month and touching as high as $4,475, the rally is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. The key question for traders is whether gold is merely pausing before another leg higher or entering a period of consolidation after a sharp, momentum-driven advance.
Tech Takes the Baton With Nasdaq Futures Breaking 30,300 as Fed Odds Shift: How Far Can This Run
The Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures (NQ) have pushed decisively above the psychologically important 30,300 level, extending a rally that has increasingly been powered by large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks. The move comes as investors grow more confident that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten policy further in the near term after softer inflation readings and weaker retail sales data reduced expectations for a September rate hike.
Retail Sales Slump, Consumer Sentiment Slides: Good News for the Fed, But a Warning for Stocks
U.S. consumers delivered a mixed message in July: retail spending weakened sharply, while a preliminary August survey showed confidence deteriorating again. For markets worried about an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, that combination is welcome news. But for equities, a consumer slowdown that lasts too long could become a problem for corporate earnings. Retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% in July, sharply missing expectations for a 0.1% increase.
Bond Buyers Showed Up. But Treasury Futures Traders Should Pay Attention
The Treasury market delivered a mixed message this week. On the surface, demand for newly issued government debt held up well. The Treasury's benchmark 10-year and long-bond auctions were absorbed without major hiccups, suggesting investors remain willing to finance Washington's growing borrowing needs. Yet beneath the headline demand figures lies a warning for Treasury futures traders: buyers are showing up only when yields are sufficiently high.
US July CPI Aligns With Expectations; Fed Odds Split as Markets Shrug Off the Data
Consumer price inflation (CPI) for July rose in line with expectations, , a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released Wednesday showed. The financial markets took the data in their stride, with the initial reaction being muted.
Exclusive: Gold’s Breakout Has Legs; Metals Focus' Philip Newman Flags What It Takes for the Bullion to Keep Shining
Gold’s recent surge is more than just a geopolitical trade. While headlines around the Middle East and shifting U.S. policy have helped fuel volatility, the deeper driver remains the changing outlook for U.S. interest rates, according to Philip Newman, Managing Director at Metals Focus. In an interview with MarketFramework, Newman said the precious metal’s breakout above key levels reflects growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Exclusive: Stocks Are Actually Cheaper Now Than at the Start of the Year, Says LPL Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder
Despite a strong rally this year, LPL Financial Vice President and Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder says valuations across the market — including in tech — are reasonable, and stocks are trading cheaper on forward earnings now than they were back in January. It's a detail that cuts against the instinct to treat a market sitting at highs as automatically expensive, and it's the foundation for the rest of LPL's bullish case.
Wednesday's CPI Could Decide Which Way Markets Break — Here's the Setup Going In
Wednesday's July consumer price inflation (CPI) report lands at a moment when futures markets are about as undecided as they've been all year. Fed funds futures are pricing roughly even odds between a September rate hike and a hold, and this split leaves this print with unusual power to tip sentiment rather than just confirm it. How Traders Are Positioned Going In The average estimates call for a cool off in annual inflation rate but a pick up in the monthly rate.
Exclusive: China Holds Key to Oil Going Back To $100 as Crude Market Remain Disrupted By Iran, Ukraine War, Says GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan
RBOB gasoline futures are caught between a falling national pump average and a crude market that has been gyrating. Traders looking for a clean read on where the futures curve goes next are instead staring at one of the widest forecasting bands, a reflection of just how much the market is being driven by geopolitics rather than fundamentals.
U.S. Dollar Slides, Treasury Yields Fall as Economy Loses 23,000 Jobs in July — Far Below 85,000 Gain Forecast
Updated with additional insights from the report, expanded analysis of the market reaction, and fresh commentary from analysts U.S. job market contracted in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a report released Friday. Following the weak jobs numbers, financial markets repriced their interest-rate expectations. Job Losses, Steep Downward Revisions Mar Labor Market Outlook Non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July versus economists' consensus estimate of an 85,000 increase.
Labor Market Floor Appears Firm: Why NFP Downside Risks Are Fading
Two independent data released Thursday are telling the same story: the era of aggressive corporate layoffs is fading. Whether that translates into a strong jobs report Friday is a separate question but the risk of an outright bad one just got smaller. The claims data: three weeks, one direction The Labor Department's weekly claims report showed initial jobless claims at 188,000 for the week ending July 18, then 197,000 for July 25, then 199,000 for the week ending August 1.
Memory Chip Weakness Exposes Fragile Tech Sentiment Ahead of High-Stakes Payrolls Report
Premarket weakness in two AI-infrastructure stocks is doing more than punishing a single sector; it's revealing just how little room for error is left in the broader Nasdaq trade heading into one of the most closely watched economic releases of the year. The Setup: A Beat That Wasn't Enough SanDisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC) both delivered earnings that, on paper, should have been celebrated.
Record High, Uneven Breadth: Is the S&P 500's Rally as Healthy as It Looks?
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,737 on Tuesday, surpassing the peak it set back in early June and marking its first new high in two months. The Dow cleared 54,000 for the first time ever. On paper, it's the kind of session that ends any debate about whether the summer sell-off was a real crack or just a scare. Underneath the headline number, that gap between price action and market health is the real story.
July Non-farm Payrolls Preview: Cooling Hiring, Rising Wages, and a Services Sector That Refuses to Slow
The July nonfarm payrolls report arrives with the labor market sending conflicting signals just two days ahead of the release data. ADP reported that private job growth was the weakest in months and well below expectations. Yet wage growth remained firm, suggesting companies are slowing hiring without aggressively cutting workers.
Tech Led Tuesday and Is Still 3% Underwater: Rotation or the First Crack?
Wall Street closed out Tuesday with a split personality. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) blew through 54,000 for the first time ever, up roughly 908 points, and the S&P 500 notched its first record close since early June, rising 1.8% to 7,737. Both indexes are now firmly in uncharted territory.
Bessent's 48-Hour Timeline Just Repriced Crude's Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium
WTI crude oil futures dropped more than 4% Tuesday to roughly $76.60 after having been up as much as 2.5% earlier in the session. Brent, the more internationally-weighted benchmark, fell a more modest 4%, to about $80.50. What flipped the tape wasn't a chart level. It was a named official putting a clock on a deal.
Wall Street's New S&P 500 Playbook: It's Not About Multiples Anymore — It's About Who Can Actually Pay for AI
The driver behind the S&P 500's next leg higher has quietly changed. For most of 2026, the index climbed as investors paid up for the promise of artificial intelligence (AI). Multiples expanded, hyperscalers got the benefit of the doubt, and momentum did the rest. That phase appears to be over. Two pieces of research published this week, one from Morgan Stanley's U.S. equity strategy team led by Michael Wilson, the other from LPL Research's Jeffrey Buchbinder, converge on the same diagnosis.
Henry Hub Shrugs Off the Hormuz Selloff — But Not Entirely
Oil traders just lived through a violent reversal. After surging more than 20% in July on escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions, including Iran's claimed attack on two tankers transiting the waterway under US military escort, crude cratered more than 5% in the first trading session of August.
Show More
loading
Actions
Get in touch with Shanthi
Contact Shanthi, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack