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Articles by Sharp Clarke
Super Bowl 58: Tackles and Assists Prop Bets Deep Dive
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The Super Bowl prop menu is extensive. The 'Big Game' brings an assortment of prop bets that we only get once a year, and the novelty of it all is part of the appeal. Personally, I'm not a fan of laying -110 on heads or tails, though I do love a good Gatorade color bet at long odds. While those novelty props are fun and unique, the Super Bowl brings in other unique on-the-field bets that can be exploited with a bit of research.
SharpClarke's Super Bowl Breakdown
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ I am sure by now you've read every article and heard every talking head discussing the Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and the 49ers. Instead of doing a full matchup breakdown, I want to take this analysis in a bit of a different direction. I'll talk about some betting philosophy and then get into how it could apply in this game. Don't worry; I've got my best bets at the bottom if you prefer to just scroll down and see what I'm playing.
Super Bowl 58 In-Depth Breakdown, Picks, Predictions, and Odds
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ This is the 10th year of my annual in-depth Super Bowl breakdown! After correctly predicting a Chiefs win last year, I moved to 7-2 on outright predictions for the Super Bowl. For those of you who haven’t read any of my past previews, I include in-depth statistics and analysis, with the goal being to make the game more predictable by adding context.
Super Bowl Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ There is sadly only one game left of the season but it figures to be a good one. The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers as small underdogs, sporting a total of around 47. My full FREE in-depth breakdown will be ready to go shortly where I break down every aspect of the game and give my prediction. With the breakdown running wildly long, we created a separate page for our bets.
SharpClarke's Best Championship Round Bet: KC @ BAL
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ This weekend should be a lot of fun for football fans. Both sides of the Championship Round have plenty of intrigue. But one game in particular has caught my attention, both as an exciting matchup and for a bet I like. As I said last week, playoff betting markets get hammered into shape by sharp bettors earlier than regular season markets, so size any bets accordingly.
NBA Player Prop Bets: LaMelo's Revenge
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Tonight's NBA slate features two great matchups with the Denver Nuggets facing the Boston Celtics while the Orlando Magic go up against the Philadelphia 76ers. There are a few other matchups that might not be exciting games to watch but are ripe for betting purposes. Want more of my in-depth NBA Player Prop bets?
SharpClarke's Best Divisional Round Bet: HOU @ BAL
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ It's the playoffs. All eyes are on a handful of games, and opinions shaped the market fairly early on this week. We have not seen too much line movement since Monday, and it is tough to find an edge. So I recommend sizing your bets accordingly —it's never a good idea to over-leverage into a market that has been shaped into place by winning bettors.
Divisional Round NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Wild Card Weekend was a fun one! I didn’t want to repeat the same word, but it truly was wild. The Texans, Packers, and Bucs all won as underdogs, while the Chiefs took care of business as favorites over Miami. Our Wild Card boost didn’t come through, as we had a win, loss, push, and void. In hindsight, that seems almost harder to do than winning all of them.
NFL Divisional Round Weekend Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team.
SharpClarke's Divisional Round NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Things are finally slowing down for me this NFL season. With only four games to handicap and six games to break down (over the course of three days), it did not take me long to settle on a position for these games. Of course, I am not alone, so we see these lines hit relative maturity earlier in the week than usual. Betting early is key. This article provides my analysis for all my bets as I document them in the 4for4 Discord.
NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team.
Wild Card Weekend NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ After a short hiatus, we are back for the playoffs! The kind folks at Vivid are once again boosting some of my favorite plays of the weekend, so you can get even better value on plays that I already think are strong. We are now getting 13x if these four legs hit! For those who are new, Vivid Picks is a simple fantasy sports game where you pick multiple players to go over or under their assigned line.
SharpClarke's Best Wildcard Weekend Bet: GB @ DAL
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Unlike a lot of bettors who scale down their sides and totals bets in the playoffs, I typically like to lean hard into the angles I find at this point in the season. I probably do not have a lot of company in being a person who has watched and graded every snap that every team has played this season. I have a very strong sense of who these teams are and what conditions they need to succeed or fail.
Wild Card Weekend Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ We got back on the right track last week, popping over a little over 2 units with limited plays. Sportsbooks essentially refused to post anything in Week 18 due to so much uncertainty. It makes sense from a risk perspective because those are the easiest props to win and react to news quickly. It led to a relatively small card for me.
SharpClarke's Wild Card NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The playoffs are here, and that means more focus on each matchup and every game being crucial. There are plenty of media-focused storylines in this set of games, with Goff v. Stafford, Mike McCarthy v. Green Bay, the Dolphins playing on the ice moon of Hoth, and Joe Flacco returning to the playoffs. But for me, the goal is to see through the narratives into the fundamental matchups and identify value.
SharpClarke's Best Week 18 NFL Bet: ATL @ NO
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ In this week's matchup spotlight, I'm heading to the Big Easy to break down a game between the Falcons and Saints that could have massive playoff implications (or else could not matter at all). But either way, both teams will be putting forth their maximum effort, which is not true of every game on the slate. Instead of talking about motivational angles, I'll do what I normally do and break down a side I like based on the team quality and matchups.
Week 18 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team.
SharpClarke's Week 18 NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ I love Week 18. The final week of the regular season has been my most profitable week of the season over the last three years. I don't think it's due to anything magical about my process, and it probably is just good variance running my way over a short sample. But it at least makes me confident that I tend not to misread the situations that occur in the final week.
Week 17 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team.
SharpClarke's Best Week 17 NFL Bet: DET @ DAL
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ This week's best bet takes us to the rare Saturday Night Football game between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys. Both teams have something to fight for in this game, but each team's primary goal relies on other teams losing.
Week 17 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ After spending all of November and the first week of December in the absolute gutter, we are back on track. Three consecutive positive weeks puts us up nearly 8 units on the season. It doesn’t sound like much, but considering the losing streak we had in November, I consider it a good trend in the right direction before the playoffs. Last week was solid, but was so close to being an insane week. We nailed Amari Cooper's overs and ladders in the first half.
SharpClarke's Week 17 NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season, whether that means no change in routine or traveling to see family and friends or anything else. The NFL season does not slow down for the holidays; in fact, it feels like the intensity picks up with so many island games. This week is no different as the playoff picture starts to take shape.
SharpClarke's Best Week 16 NFL Bet: BAL @ SF
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ This week, I am taking on the most high-profile game on the slate, settling in for some Christmas night fun as the current AFC #1 seed, Baltimore Ravens, visit the current NFC #1 seed and Super Bowl favorite, San Francisco 49ers. The teams are both trying to secure home-field throughout the playoffs and a round 1 bye. The 49ers could not be priced more highly in the market, and yet all they seem to do is justify their high expectations week after week.
Week 17 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly.
Week 16 NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Last week’s 4for4 boost was so close. We lost by half a total tackle. Buckner finished with just four tackles and needed five. This happened because Pittsburgh had minimal play volume and was unable to consistently move the ball. DK Metcalf over 63.5 was a sweaty cash on the over, while Desmond Ridder under 183.5 passing yards won despite him throwing a 60-yard completion.
Week 16 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.
Week 16 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ We have now stacked two positive weeks in a row and are back towards grinding out another solid season! Despite the worst betting month of my career, we are still up on the season. Last week was good, but it truly could have been even better. Zay Jones busted our under of 42.5 after Mossing some poor corner. He had four catches for 23 yards outside of that one 36-yard incredible catch. It honestly may have been the best of his career.
SharpClarke's Week 16 NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ It looks like an exciting week of holiday football coming up, starting on Thursday and through Christmas on Monday. Hopefully, everybody who is traveling has safe travels. It's a good time to remember things we are grateful for, and I am grateful to you (yes, you!) for checking out my analysis. This article provides my analysis for all my bets as I document them in the 4for4 Discord. For access, you'll need a 4for4 Betting Subscription.
SharpClarke's Best Week 15 NFL Bet: DEN @ DET
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ It's time for some Saturday Night Football, as the Denver Broncos visit the Detroit Lions with all kinds of playoff implications on the line. The Broncos have played their way into the playoff mix in the AFC while the Lions are trying to hold off two challengers to their stranglehold on the NFC North. Influential bettors love the Lions here, playing at home again after a tough road trip to Chicago.
Week 15 NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ We are BACK for our Week 15 boost and free article breaking down a few of our favorite NFL plays for this weekend! It’s been a couple of weeks since we hit one, so Vivid is boosting our play from 5.5x to 7x! For those who are new, Vivid Picks is a simple fantasy sports game where you pick multiple players to go over or under their assigned line.
Week 16 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly.
Week 15 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team.
Week 15 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ We finally turned the ship around in Week 14! It wasn’t much, but profit is profit after the previous weeks. It’s crazy because, based on the numbers we got and how the games were playing out, I thought we were going to have an insanely good week. We bet Josh Allen over 32.5 rushing yards, and everything was playing out as we anticipated. There were designed runs, and he was scrambling a bunch. He had 34 yards with a few minutes left.
SharpClarke's Week 15 NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Don't fact-check me on this, but this season might have the most truly live teams to make the playoffs this late in as long as I can remember. Almost every game on the slate has real playoff implications. That will make for some exciting football and, as a bettor, I appreciate it because there is less guessing about whether teams are tanking by resting key players that are only marginally injured.
SharpClarke's Best Week 14 NFL Bet: PHI @ DAL
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ I have written about several ugly matchups this season in which I have found betting value, but this week is different. I'm taking on a high-profile game between two very good and exciting teams with playoff implications on Sunday Night Football. There are likely to be strong opinions on both sides of this game but for the first time all season, I find value on the Philadelphia Eagles as they travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. Let's dive in.
Week 15 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly.
Week 14 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ It’s official. Week 13 of 2023 was my worst week of gambling history in the 4for4 era. I launched the betting subscription with Ryan Noonan 3 years ago. At this point, we are talking about over 70 weeks of documented action, and last week was my worst. What’s crazy is that it wasn’t just bad reads; there were a few plays that should have easily won and somehow lost.
SharpClarke's Week 14 NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Week 14 is looking very interesting already, with backup quarterbacks, potential inclement weather, and lots of heavy playoff implications in many of these games. In some cases, bettors are forced to decide whether an ugly underdog is getting a little too much disrespect in the market, or whether the favorite should roll easily.
SharpClarke's Best Week 13 NFL Bet: MIA @ WAS
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Coming off a rough article last week in which I wrote the phrase "I hope it's Mac Jones" at quarterback in a pro-Patriots argument, I am hoping the Week 13 version turns out more favorable for me. Still, it was encouraging to get closing line value on a bet made on Friday for the second straight week. That's typically a good indicator of a valuable bet. Hopefully, we can do the same here as I take a look at the Dolphins-Commanders matchup in Maryland.
Week 13 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there, and most of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning plays never make it to this article because of time constraints. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team.
Week 14 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly.
Week 13 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Week 12 Recap: We had a solid Thanksgiving of props, going 5-2 between Ryan Noonan and I. I personally went 3-1 and was feeling good about our prospects heading into the weekend. We picked up a ton of new subscribers during our big black Friday sale, and I was honestly excited to try and secure more lifelong subscribers to add to our already sharp and thriving community. The results didn’t quite come through.
SharpClarke's Week 13 NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ It's already Week 13 in the NFL, but we have very little clarity on what the playoff field will look like. Even with some ugly games on the slate this week, many of these games have massive playoff implications. We also may see weather come into play as we head into December. As always, my bets are founded on my model, but some additional nuances must be considered.
SharpClarke's Best Week 12 NFL Bet: NE @ NYG
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ For Week 12, I am returning to a game featuring Tommy DeVito and the Giants, a week after making a successful Over play in their game against Washington. It's important to continue to adapt views on teams and players with additional data, particularly when those teams or players have a small sample size in their current form. Last week, I made the case that DeVito was being undervalued as an NFL quarterback.
NBA Player Prop Bets: Dennis Schroder Looks to Keep Pace with Indiana
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The NBA will be nearly at full force tonight with 28 of the 30 teams playing tonight. There are some incredible matchups tonight, including some fast-paced action and lots of scoring to be had. Want more of my in-depth NBA Player Prop bets?
Week 13 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly.
Thanksgiving NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Happy Thanksgiving! To everyone reading this column, we appreciate your support of 4for4! I truly believe we have collectively cultivated one of the sharpest communities in the sports betting space, and it’s incredible to be a part of that. Make sure to spend time with your friends and family, but I know football is going to be on regardless, so you may as well place a couple of bets.
SharpClarke's Week 12 NFL Bets
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ The schedule is moving quickly this week, as we have four games being played before the weekend even starts. This typically means that markets mature faster for those games, and getting bets in earlier is of utmost importance. This article provides my analysis for my weekly bets as I document them in the 4for4 Discord. For access, you'll need a 4for4 Betting Subscription.
SharpClarke's Best Week 11 NFL Bet: NYG @ WAS
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ For Week 11, I'm going to pivot to a game total play in the Commanders-Giants matchup that I'm sure everyone will tune in for on Sunday. My favorite spreads on the week have moved out of ideal range since they opened, so this is my favorite bet left on the board on Friday. I am most comfortable when the media, NFL fans generally, and the betting market all agree on an extreme projection, and I see a chance it goes the other way.
Week 11 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals
Share Facebook Twitter Reddit Email Google+ Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.
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