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Abstract Interannual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is vital for South Asian water resources and agriculture, but its prediction is challenged by non-stationary ocean–monsoon interactions. This study proposes a Matching Index (MI), defined as the pointwise product of normalized ISMR and sea surface temperature anomalies, combined with Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (MI–EOF) to identify state-dependent ocean–monsoon coupling regimes.
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