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Articles by Simon Tilford
Review: A Guide to the Post-Brexit Conservative Party
The Edinburgh University academic Henry Drucker, writing in the 1970s, characterized the U.K. Conservative Party as an “oligarchy tempered by assassination,” a comment on the party’s tendency to appoint leaders from among the British elite and jettison them from office a short time later. The epithet still feels apt. David Cameron, who resigned as prime minister in 2016, is the grandson of a baronet.
Have China and Pakistan Hit a Roadblock?
If you would like to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Thursday, please sign up here. Are China-Pakistan Ties Shifting? Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif unveiled a new Chinese-designed reactor at the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant last week. Construction of the $2.7 billion unit was funded by China as part of a project to refurbish the facility and strengthen Pakistan’s energy security.
Chile Wildfires and Drought in Argentina: South America’s Heat Wave Prompts Climate Change Worries - Foreign Policy
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief. The highlights this week: How an ongoing heat wave is interrupting life and business in South America, four countries launch a joint bid to host the 2030 World Cup, and the region shrugs off a Chinese balloon in its airspace. If you would like to receive Latin America Brief in your inbox every Friday, please sign up here.
Zambia Takes Anglo American to Court
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief. The highlights this week: Church groups at war in Ethiopia, Pope Francis visits the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan, and Nigeria and South Africa seek to expand their international sporting influence. If you would like to receive Africa Brief in your inbox every Wednesday, please sign up here.
Britain Is Much Worse Off Than It Understands
Listen to this article By any criteria, the United Kingdom faces a serious economic and social crisis, one that will deepen without big shifts in policy. Yet there is little sense of this crisis among the country’s elite, not least its politicians. By any criteria, the United Kingdom faces a serious economic and social crisis, one that will deepen without big shifts in policy. Yet there is little sense of this crisis among the country’s elite, not least its politicians.
Britain Is Much Worse Off Than It Understands
Having a groundhog predict the end of winter is a tradition shrouded in Pennslyvania Dutch superstition, which dates back hundreds of years. And while science casts doubt on whether the lowland creatures are actually able to predict a late spring by seeing their own shadow, it's a comforting ritual. Except... 19 HOURS AGO
It Is Time to Abandon Dollar Hegemony
Issuing the World’s Reserve Currency Comes at Too High a Price In the 1960s, French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing complained that the dominance of the U.S. dollar gave the United States an "exorbitant privilege" to borrow cheaply from the rest of the world and live beyond its means. U.S. allies and adversaries alike have often echoed the gripe since.
Time to Ditch Dollar Hegemony
class="f-serif ls-0 article-subtitle ">Issuing the World’s Reserve Currency Comes at Too High a Price
It Is Time to Abandon Dollar Hegemony
In the 1960s, French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing complained that the dominance of the U.S. dollar gave the United States an “exorbitant privilege” to borrow cheaply from the rest of the world and live beyond its means. U.S. allies and adversaries alike have often echoed the gripe since.
America Is Having an Unemployment Apocalypse During the Coronavirus Pandemic. Europe Chose Not to.
Argument A trans-Atlantic chasm has opened up on pandemic labor policy. We’ll soon know which side got it right. Stephen Greene works a street corner hoping to land a job as a laborer or carpenter in Pompano Beach, Florida, on June 3, 2011. Joe Raedle/Getty Images The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically changed economic life across Europe and the United States.
Will this crisis bring about a new economic settlement?
Policymakers reverted to the status quo after the last recession. This time must be different by Simon Tilford / March 26, 2020 / Leave a comment Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Photo: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire/PA Images Western governments were slow to appreciate the risks of coronavirus. This was mainly because they were complacent about the chances of it really taking hold beyond East Asia, believing it to be largely a repeat of the 2008 Sars outbreak.
Germany is falling out of love with economic orthodoxy
Many instinctively see Germany as a fairer, less market-driven economy than, say, the US or UK.
Germany Is an Economic Masochist
Argument Europe’s biggest economy could easily stop its own slide into long-term stagnation—but it would prefer not to. A protester dressed as German Chancellor Angela Merkel stands next to a giant 1 Euro coin during a demonstration in front of the chancellery in Berlin October 21, 2011, calling on Germany and France to spend more on alleviating poverty and protecting the environment, rather than on banks.
Sorry, Britain, You’re Just Not That Important for Europe
Argument The chattering classes are greatly exaggerating the implications of a Britain-free EU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks towards Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May at Lancaster House on July 10, 2018 in London, England. (WPA Pool/Getty Images) Most Continental Europeans are deeply bored by the endless theater of British politics and just want the Brexit issue resolved one way or another.
Brexit and the UK’s Services Trade
But does Britain’s membership of the EU constrain its services exports with the rest of world, as many Brexiteers contend? As the obstacles to trade in services are regulatory rather than tariff based, it is hard to see how this could be the case. By ensuring minimum standards, the EU has facilitated trade in services, not hampered it. Eurosceptics routinely ignore this.
A No-Deal Brexit Will Destroy the British Economy
A country should theoretically be able to leave the European Union without wrenching economic dislocation and without doing long-lasting damage to relations with its closest neighbors. And that might still happen. British Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU’s leaders could still negotiate a deal that limits the economic damage and preserves strong political ties.
A No-Deal Brexit Will Destroy the British Economy – Foreign Policy – Medium
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The Free-Market Case Against Tax Competition | by Simon Tilford
Those who believe in the power of competition to produce optimal market outcomes tend to view taxation, regulation, and other forms of state intervention as hurdles to growth and prosperity. But by arguing in favor of "tax competition" among advanced economies, they are supporting a status quo that encourages monopoly. LONDON – The global race to cut corporate tax rates accelerated in 2018.
Who can replace Mario Draghi, the man who saved the eurozone?
The stability of the eurozone is almost now taken as given, its future secure. People who argued at the height of the crisis in 2011 that the currency union’s days were numbered tend to be portrayed as Cassandras or Eurosceptics ignorant of the complexities of European politics. This ignores the reality that it was the European Central Bank and its President, Mario Draghi, that saved the day, not the participating governments. And Draghi leaves office in just over a year.
The deficit obsession damaging Britain’s economy
Opponents of increased public spending have a stranglehold on Britain’s political and public discourse. There was a brief hiatus after the financial crisis, when it was accepted that the government needed to intervene in the economy to bolster demand, but since then the deficit hawks have largely held sway unchallenged.
The Most Dangerous Man in Europe Is Jens Weidmann
The Most Dangerous Man in Europe Is Jens Weidmann Germany’s political and economic establishment believes its handling of the eurozone crisis and its aftermath has been vindicated. After all, the eurozone is intact and enjoying an increasingly robust economic recovery.
How the Eurozone Might Split
In February 2016, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development opined that developed country growth prospects had “practically flat-lined” and that only a stronger “commitment to raising public investment would boost demand and help support future growth.” Fast-forward some 24 months, and despite Brexit, the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, and the rise of the populist Alternative für Deutschland in Germany, the euro seems to be a much better bet than it has been in a...
Is the eurozone really out of the woods?
Can the eurozone avoid another crisis without further significant reforms? Much will depend on the longevity of the current upturn and the depth of the next downturn. The initial impetus to the recovery was a combination of monetary stimulus, an end to austerity, the weakness of the euro and very low oil prices.
No Brexit deal worse than bad deal
by John Springford and Simon Tilford in London UK Prime Minister Theresa May claims that failing to achieve a deal on Britain's exit from the European Union would be better than settling for a poor deal. She is wrong. The costs to the UK economy of failing to strike a deal would dwarf those of signing up to a bad deal. The likelihood that Brexit negotiations break down irrevocably and Britain leaves with no deal is slim, but certainly not zero.
Opinion | Why ‘Brexit’ Will Make Britain’s Mediocre Economy Worse
Op-Ed Contributor May 29, 2017 A view of London’s financial district from The Shard building, last year. LONDON — An observer of Britain’s “Brexit” debate would be forgiven for thinking that the country’s economy is one of the European Union’s star performers. Brexit’s advocates rarely pass up an opportunity to claim that the European Union economy is the world’s weak link, and that Britain’s reformed, dynamic and flexible economy has little to risk, and much to gain, from leaving it.
Checks on prime ministerial power are weak in Britain – and Theresa May's massive parliamentary majority after the general election will weaken them further. In the context of Brexit, this is dangerous. View it in your browser. Is this email not displaying correctly? Checks on prime ministerial power are weak in Britain – and Theresa May’s massive parliamentary majority after the general election will weaken them further. In the context of Brexit, this is dangerous.
Few countries have allowed their sense of exceptionalism to damage their interests in the way Britain is doing. British overconfidence is unjustified and will come at a heavy price. Most countries see themselves as exceptional, but few have ever allowed the belief in their exceptionalism to damage their economic and political interests in quite the way Britain is currently doing.
Barker explains that the bill covers Britain’s potential obligations in three main areas: legally binding budget commitments that will be paid after Britain leaves; pension promises to EU officials; and contingent liabilities that would only require payments in certain circumstances. By his calculations, the best Brexit bill for the UK would be €23.5 billion, while the worst would be €58.5 billion.
UK economy looks robust, but Brexit storm will hit, Editorial - THE BUSINESS TIMES
THE British economy has not weathered the Brexit storm, contrary to the claims of avid supporters of its departure from the European Union (EU). It is just that the calm before the storm has lasted a bit longer than many had assumed. There is no reason to believe Britain
The Greek Fiscal Crisis and the Future of the Euro-Zone
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Withdrawal from EU will make matters worse for Britain, Editorial - THE BUSINESS TIMES
AN OBSERVER of Britain's European Union referendum campaign would be forgiven for thinking that the country's economy had been one of the EU's best performers over the last 15 years. Much of the debate focused on how EU membership was holding back the British economy. Boris
The Governance Games
As happens every four years, the world is transfixed by the Summer Olympic Games. Yet even the brilliance of Usain Bolt, Simone Biles, Wayde van Niekerk, Katie Ledecky, and so many others has not obscured the dirty underside of the Olympic movement – the self-serving governance of the International Olympic Committee.
The Putin Question
WASHINGTON, DC – Russian President Vladimir Putin has at times garnered as much attention in the US presidential campaign as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. By having his minions hack into Democratic Party computers and pass the results to WikiLeaks, as credible security experts believe, Putin appeared to be trying to tilt the election Trump’s way.
Globalization RIP?
Beyond the rancor and taunts heard at last month’s Republican National Convention, something even more ominous could be heard: the last rites for globalization. To adoring hoots, Donald Trump, the party’s presidential nominee, denounced US participation in international trade deals, and the foreign policy he sketched would pull the plug on the entire US-led liberal international order within which globalization has flourished.
Fact and fiction
Eurosceptics put forward a stream of mainly fictional ideas about the economic costs of European Union membership. The myth-peddlers cling to them doggedly, however many times they are refuted by academic research. These dubious notions provide a form of comfort blanket: the simple act of quitting the EU would inject oxygen into a suffocating British economy and resolve many complex social and economic problems.
Britain’s right-wing populists will not stop at Brexit – they want control of the Tory party and thus the country. Their ideological, unempirical world view provides few solutions to the problems facing the UK. Some eurosceptics are genuinely committed to openness and believe that the EU prevents Britain from being true to its liberal internationalist roots. But they are a small minority.
Saving the IMF by Ashoka Mody
PRINCETON – Critics have long contended that the International Monetary Fund mainly serves the interests of its major shareholders. In fact, at its best, the Fund has helped crystalize global consensus on macroeconomic policy and coordination. But, since the start of the Great Recession in mid-2007, its actions have mostly confirmed the detractors’ critique.
The policy failures masked by scapegoating migrants
By focusing on ‘welfare tourism’, the government has deflected criticism of its policies, writes Simon Tilford You have viewed your...
The Eurozone’s Fault Lines
LONDON — The euro was supposed to boost European economic growth and living standards, strengthen public finances and hence the sustainability of welfare states. Politically, it was supposed to bring the European Union’s member states together, and prevent a newly united Germany from becoming too dominant. But the opposite has happened. The hoped-for convergence in living standards between richer and poorer members of the eurozone has failed to materialize.
Does a eurozone slump make Brexit more likely?
Two years ago the British economy was performing in line with the eurozone’s. Since then, it has grown rapidly and the country’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) has announced that the 2008-9 recession was shallower than previously thought (see chart 1). Over this period, the eurozone economy has stagnated, leading to a big gap in growth rates.
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