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Weekly Cotton Market Review - USDA
Cotton harvest near cotton gin with modules lined up in the gin yard. ©Debra L Ferguson Spot quotations averaged 55 points lower than the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service’s Cotton and Tobacco Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49, strength 27.0-28.9, and uniformity 81.0-81.9) in the seven designated markets averaged 58.37 cents per pound for the week ending Thursday, September 10, 2020.
Global Markets: Rice - India’s Exports Soar on Competitive Prices Relative to Thailand
India’s exports are anticipated to continue to climb and well exceed those from Thailand on the continued decoupling of prices between the two exporters, mirroring the situation seen nearly a decade ago. Ever since India repealed its 3-year non-basmati export ban in late 2011, it has been the dominant global exporter, edging out Thailand which had held that role for over 3 decades. While exports from India are forecast to climb in 2020, exports from Thailand are forecast at the lowest since 1998.
Global Markets: Oilseeds - Belarus Increases Soybean Imports on Expanded Crush Capacity
Investments in Belarus crushing and the development of new processing facilities have driven a sharp increase in soybean imports over the past 5 years. Imports were minimal prior to marketing year 2015/2016, when Belarus began developing its crushing sector. In the following 2 years, imports more than doubled annually, reaching 343,000 tons in 2017/18. Growth has continued at a pace of around 100,000 tons per year, and is expected to reach 540,000 in 2019/2020.
Global Markets: Wheat - Record Canadian Exports Forecast from Near-Record Crop
Photo: Texas AgriLife Extension With favorable weather and larger area, Canadian production is forecast at near-record levels, supporting exports at a record 25.0 million tons, accounting for 13 percent of total global exports. For the 2020/21 crop, Canadian farmers expanded area for both winter wheat and durum, based on strong prices.
Global Markets: Cotton - How Big a Role Did China Play in 2019/20?
Ginned cotton bale coming off conveyor at Mill Creek Gin. ©Debra L Ferguson In the 2019/20 marketing year, China accounted for just over 22 percent of total world cotton production, of which 86 percent of that was produced in Xinjiang province (just under 20 percent of the world total). China exports only a small amount of cotton lint, half-of-one-percent of production. Other than some minor exports to North Korea, most remaining exports are reexports of foreign cotton from consignment warehouses.
Global Markets: Corn - World Production Falls but Consumption Rises
Harvest for the 2020/21 corn crop is underway around the world. Preliminary data from early harvest indicates that production is smaller than the initial assessment in May but is still at record levels. The downward revision is primarily driven by the U.S. crop. U.S. planted area in the June Acreage report was significantly lower than the March Prospective Plantings report.
WASDE Coarse Grain: Domestic Corn Production Down, Exports Raised
Corn pouring out of an auger during corn harvest. Photo: ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, lower corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 million from last month on a lower yield forecast and reduction in harvested area.
WASDE Wheat: Greater Global Consumption, Supplies
Photo: University of Arkansas The 2020/21 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes for wheat exports. The projected season-average farm price remains at $4.50 per bushel. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks.
WASDE Oilseeds: Lower U.S. Soybean Production, Stocks
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect increases in exports and crush for 2019/20. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 112 million on a lower yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre. Yield is down 1.4 bushels per acre from the August forecast. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month.
WASDE Rice: Increased Domestic Production, Imports, Use
The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for lower beginning stocks, with increased production, imports, and total use. The August 21 NASS Rice Stocks report reduced 2020/21 beginning stocks by 2.0 million cwt. Imports for 2020/21 are raised 0.8 million cwt to 36.8 million on expectations of continued strong demand for combined medium- and short-grain varieties.
WASDE Cotton: Lower Domestic Production, Exports, End Stocks
Cotton harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson The 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly higher beginning stocks relative to last month but lower production, mill use, exports, and ending stocks. Production is lowered 1.0 million bales to 17.1 million, with a lower projection for every region. Mill use is projected 200,000 bales lower this month, but compared with its revised 2019/20 level is still expected to rise 16 percent.
Ag Trade: China Purchases High Volumes of U.S. soybeans; Sales Up 20% Over Last Year
In a year that has otherwise been a tough slog for soybean producers and other farmers in the United States, a silver lining emerged this week: China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans and many other commodities, booked purchases of about 644,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery in the 2020-2021 marketing year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The purchase is approximately equal to 24 million bushels.
Bt Corn: Tighter EPA Regulations Are Pending
This week the EPA released a draft plan that essentially overhauls many of the regulations around insect resistance management (IRM) in Bt crops grown in the “cotton belt”. There are many major changes proposed, one of which is that field failures are presumed to be cases of “practical resistance” if certain criteria are met.
Texas Blacklands Cotton: Heavy Rains Delay Harvest, Potential Regrowth, Sprouting Issues
Cotton regrowth after defoliation application. Photo: Tyson Raper, University of Tennessee Just as the bulk of the cotton acres across the area were defoliated and harvest operations start, rain set in across the region. Total rain fall over the last two weeks is anywhere from 5 inches to over 10 inches.
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