Pres, Sarge986 LLC. Writes daily for TheStreet PRO. #MarketRecon Seen often at Fox Biz, Schwab-Ameritrade Network, Yahoo Finance. Former CNBC regular
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Articles by Stephen Guilfoyle
Tesla’s Space-Age Car Creates Awe, the Chart Pattern Creates Opportunity
Flying cars? Hmm. Maybe that’s a little bit of an exaggeration. What you could maybe say is that on Friday morning, Tesla (TSLA) shares were soaring in response to what Tesla did on Thursday night in cahoots with SpaceX (SPCX). Elon Musk’s two cutting edge companies working together? Now that’s interesting. Tesla shares traded higher overnight after unveiling the new Roadster, which Musk’s company claims can go from zero to 60 mph in less than a second.
Rocket Lab Price Targets Are Falling, but We’re Making Another Trade Today
On Thursday, after my unexpected but necessary and lengthy time away from actively managing the $10,000 Portfolio and the portfolio’s poor recent performance, we took several steps to try to stabilize the book without running cash levels down to nothing. Remember, we do not use margin here to initiate or increase exposure to long positions, so we are often put in the position of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
My Worst Case for the AI-Fueled Economy
Nice rebound? Sort of. U.S. equity markets rebounded off of steep intraday losses on Thursday. The S&P 500 ended up gaining 0.33% for the regular session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.08%. That minute gain came after that particular index had been down as much as 1.4% midday on top of a 1.9% loss on Wednesday. While that felt like a rebound and it technically was, the Nasdaq Composite still stands 3.6% lower than it stood a rough 10 days ago.
Time to Make Some Moves as Things Get Ugly for the $10,000 Portfolio
Gee whiz. Where do I begin? After more than a week of taking my eye off of the ball, which was necessary to take care of a loved one who had fallen ill, the $10,000 Portfolio has gone from being -7% since inception to -16.2%. Ugly. I’d apologize to readership for disappearing as these stocks were absolutely roasted, except for two things. One, disappearing at that time was the ethically right thing to do, from my perspective. Two, this is my money. This is not a model portfolio.
Tech Trade Turns Ugly
That was ugly. The pressure on tech or AI-related stocks has continued overnight and has interestingly forced managers fleeing that trade into U.S. Treasuries. As the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 gave up 1.88% and 2.02% respectively for the regular trading session on Wednesday, bond yields have reacted somewhat counterintuitively to a hotter than expected CPI report for September. On Wednesday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its data for consumer-level inflation for September.
Exiting Bank of America After $1.2 Billion AML Embarrassment
Something told me to get rid of my long position in Bank of America (BAC) ahead of earnings. I should have listened to that voice. In all fairness to myself, I have been preoccupied with the welfare of a loved one in a distant state and managing money has not been my priority for more than a week. Good thing I pay a guy to manage my bond portfolio and another guy to manage a different set of equities. The Sarge-folio? That’s on me. Time to buckle my chinstrap and get back in the game.
ASML Just Told Investors Something They Shouldn’t Ignore
Early Wednesday morning, semiconductor equipment provider ASML Holding (ASML) released its third-quarter earnings. While total sales may have disappointed Wall Street ever so slightly, those sales were still good for year-over-year growth of 55%. That said, margins improved in an environment that simply reflects a profoundly overt era of scarcity. You see, ASML builds the lithography machines that foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Intel (INTC), and Samsung use to manufacture chips.
Invest in Nike? Only With Your Money.
When will the shares of Nike (NKE) return the company to its former glory? Good question. Not soon is my tale from last night’s earnings release. Let’s explore. For Nike’s fiscal first quarter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.48 on revenue of $11.213 billion. While the bottom-line result actually did beat expectations, the top-line number not only fell short of consensus, but reflected a year-over-year decline of 4.2%.
Cathie Wood’s Firm Makes $16 Million Rocket Lab Decision
Portfolio News Planet Labs (PL) On Thursday, Planet Labs announced the successful launch of 20 satellites: the first demo mission for Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google Project Suncatcher; Tanager-2, its latest hyperspectral satellite; and 18 SuperDoves. These spacecraft were launched to orbit aboard the Transporter-18 rideshare mission with SpaceX (SPCX) from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.
Selling Smith & Wesson After Gains
Portfolio News Ondas Inc (ONDS) On Wednesday, Ondas Inc announced the launch of Dronebuster REACH, which is the long-range variant of its Dronebuster family of non-kinetic Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems. The first REACH system is under contract to be delivered to the Office of Naval Research following testing. That office will use the systems to support C-UAS research, evaluation and test activities. REACH applies the same electronic attack techniques proven across the Dronebuster line.
New Micron Price Target After Blowout Earnings Prove Wall Street Wrong
On Wednesday afternoon, memory chip design king Micron Technology (MU) released the firm’s fiscal fourth quarter financial results. For the period ended September 3, Micron posted an adjusted EPS of $33.42 (GAAP EPS: $32.87) on revenue of $54.229 billion. These top- and bottom-line results simply crushed Wall Street’s expectations while that sales print was good for year-over-year growth of 379.3%. These numbers are the stuff of fantasy. They are like video game results.
Bonds Crash the Party
Already. That’s it: September is a wrap. Summer has rolled out. Autumn has rolled in. In central Florida, the two seasons are difficult to tell apart. At least until Halloween. The S&P 500 gave up 0.25% on Wednesday to close out the month down 0.45%. Coming into this September, the S&P 500 had returned an average of -0.8% for that month since 1970 and -0.47% since 1994, so one might say that the S&P 500 “outperformed” this year versus the forces of seasonality, if only by a smidgen.
I’m Eyeing Northrop After Boeing’s $20 Billion Navy Update
Readers likely already know that I have a soft spot in my heart for the large defense contractors. Largely a group of cash flow beasts, these names feast on large contract awards provided by the U.S. Department of Defense/War and U.S. allies. Readers who follow me know that, this year, I have not been overweight these contractors in the least, which is a little uncomfortable for me.
Selling 1 Small-Cap Name, Buying 4 as Market Sell-Off Calls for Finesse
Morning, gang. As you likely already well know, the portfolio is reeling a bit after the marketplace repriced the value it places on equity in Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL). The broad market sell-off has extended to a number of portfolio names such as Planet Labs (PL), Ondas Inc (ONDS) Evolv Technologies (EVLV) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI). What are we going to do about it?
A Chill Down Wall St. as Confidence Cools
Summer Breeze See the curtains hangin’ in the window In the evening on a Friday night A little light a-shinin’ through the window Lets me know everything’s all right Summer breeze makes me feel fine Blowin’ through the jasmine in my mind Summer breeze makes me feel fine Blowin’ through the jasmine in my mind – Dash Crofts, Jim Seals (Seals and Crofts) 1972 A Cool Breeze Feel that? That’s a cool, crisp, refreshing breeze. Maybe not a summer breeze. Smells kind of like autumn.
Keeping My Price Target as AMD Lands ‘AI Godmother’ in Bold $8.2B Move
On Monday afternoon, long-time Sarge-folio holding Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) made news. The company announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire World Labs in an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $8.2 billion. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approval.
Some Good News After a Harsh Selloff for Our Small-Cap Pharma Name
OK, on Monday, we spent the morning, if not a decent-sized portion of the day, trying to figure out why portfolio holding Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) was being taken out to the woodshed. There was nothing about the company on the newswires. There still is nothing firm specific. The AI chatbots had nothing either. In fact, Anthropic’s Claude was still denying that the stock was even trading lower from Friday’s close when it was down 25% on the day.
Is the AI Gravy Train About to Get a Yellow Signal?
Perhaps Monday‚Äôs selloff across the U.S. financial market space was ‚Äújust‚ÄĚ the result of President Trump having rejected Iran‚Äôs offer of a seven-day ceasefire as attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have repeatedly failed. Crude oil prices increased in response. That makes sense. That keeps consumer-level inflation, at the headline level, from falling into a true period of disinflation even if deflation might be unrealistic.
Our Small-Cap Name Is Tanking and Nobody Knows Why
One of this portfolio’s holding’s, Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) is selling off sharply on Monday morning. At last glance, I saw the shares down more than 25% on the day, which is putting a serious hurting on a portfolio that had finally crawled back into the green since inception this past Friday. Well, that pleasant reality was fleeting. Now we have to figure out what to do about it. It’s never pretty when one stock blows up and drags down an entire portfolio.
New Nvidia Price Target After $150 Billion Record Stock Buy
“That’s not a knife. This is a knife.” -Paul Hogan as Mick Dundee, “Crocodile Dundee” (1986) That’s Not a Buyback On Monday morning, elite-level AI chip designer Nvidia (NVDA) announced that the firm’s board of directors had authorized an additional $150 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program.
As Hormuz Deal Collapses, Hope Fades on Market… And So Does Rationality
Hope is the Thing with Feathers Hope is the thing with feathers That perches in the soul, And sings the tune without the words And never stops at all And sweetest in the gale is heard; And sore must be the storm That could abash the little bird That kept so many warm. I’ve heard it in the chillest land, And on the strangest sea; Yet, never, in extremity, It asked a crumb of me. – Emily Dickinson, 1861(written) 1891 (published) Hope Fading? For the moment, it seems.
Thinking of Buying Costco? Here’s Why I’d Keep It on a Short Leash
Big-box, club retail giant Costco (COST) last night reported fiscal fourth-quarter financial results, revealing unadjusted earnings per share of $6.75 on revenue of $95.723 billion. These top- and bottom-line results both easily beat Wall Street’s expectations while that sales print was good for year-over-year growth of 11.1%. Results for same-store sales were impressive. Firm-wide, comp sales were up 9.4% year over year, or +6.7% adjusted for gasoline and constant currency.
Selling Some Planet Labs After Major Google Announcement
Pure-play space-related names easily outperformed the broader marketplace on Thursday. This came on news-related events that impacted a number of our portfolio holdings. Alphabet (GOOGL) announced that the hyperscaler will fly a prototype satellite with four TPU AI chips on SpaceX’s (SPCX) Transporter-18 rideshare, built with portfolio holding Planet Labs (PL).
Iran Breakthrough?
Major U.S. domestic equity indexes jumped sharply around lunchtime on Thursday after having spent pretty much the entire morning trading in the hole. The indexes held onto those gains throughout the afternoon allowing both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to close very close to “unchanged” on the day and broader markets to close lower for the session, but up significantly from the day’s lows.
Darden Restaurants Defends One of the Worst Balance Sheets I’ve Ever Seen
On Thursday morning, Darden Restaurants (DRI) released the firm’s fiscal first quarter financial results. For the three-month period ended August 30, Darden posted an adjusted EPS of $2.05 on revenue of $3.2 billion. While that adjusted bottom-line print just met expectations, the sale number, which was up 6.7% year over year, fell short of the consensus view. Blended same store sales grew 3.1% year over year based on impressive strength at Longhorn Steakhouse.
Ondas Makes Three Key Acquisitions. Now I’m Planning to Buy More
Portfolio holding Ondas Inc (ONDS) announced Wednesday that it acquired three defense technology businesses for a combined $56 million. These additions give ONDS advanced abilities meant to enhance the Company’s overall mission capability. These deals are also meant to aid the company in expanding into addressable markets.
Anatomy of a Bond Market Selloff
We don’t need no education We don’t need no thought control No dark sarcasm in the classroom Teachers, leave them kids alone Hey, teacher, leave us kids alone All in all, you’re just another brick in the wall All in all, you’re just another brick in the wall – “Another Brick in the Wall, Part 2” George Roger Waters (Pink Floyd) 1979 Anatomy of a Bond Market Selloff, Part 1 One hit after another. The bond market could not get off of the mat Wednesday.
Quantum Computing Leaps Back Into the Scene
Quantum Computing stocks have been quiet for several months now after broadly selling off earlier this year. Readers know that I had made IBM (IBM) my name for quantum computing exposure after touring through the world of IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave (QBTS) and Infleqtion (INFQ). None of these names have done especially well since. IBM sold off and has worked its way sideways to higher. The sales that we made in the other names all ended up being good sales. Now, out of the blue, there is news.
Buying Paramount Skydance as Settlement News Pushes Price Targets
I am still interested in initiating a position in (PSKY), but only at a discount. Since the news of the settlement made the rounds earlier this week… On Monday, analyst John Hodulik of UBS reiterated his “sell” rating on PSKY as well as his $8 target price. Hodulik is rated at four stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a success rate of 59% over the past two years, while generating an average return of 11.6%.
Financials Flounder
That was ugly. Not the broader marketplace. No, stocks in general, performed well enough on Tuesday, largely holding onto the sizable gains that had been made on what was an enthusiastic rally on Monday. The Sarge-folio had another nice day on Tuesday as certain tech stocks, again led the book in a northerly direction. That said, the two bank stocks still on my book, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) were roasted for more than 3% apiece on Tuesday.
Muse Ignites Meta’s Parabolic Rally, But I’m Taking the Other Side
Facebook reborn? Kind of. Charter member of both FANG and the Mag 7, Meta Platforms (META) ran 11.3% on Monday. It’s early, but so far on Tuesday, the gains from that Monday session have held. What was the news that acted as a catalyst on Monday, taking META and the stocks of major U.S CPU designers higher? Let’s discuss.
Selling SoFi After $25 Billion Stablecoin Update
On Tuesday morning, portfolio holding SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Mastercard (MA) announced that stablecoin settlement is now live across SoFi Bank’s debit and credit card program. As part of this launch, SoFi Bank is migrating its entire $25 billion card program to stablecoin settlement of transactions using SoFiUSD. On the matter, SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said, “Merchants do not need to hold stablecoins, build new infrastructure, or change how they operate.
As Semis Soar, I’m Upping Price Targets for AMD, Intel
Several key semiconductor stocks simply soared higher in price on Monday as investors focused on the potential growth that could lie ahead for central processing unit, or CPU, designers specifically. Though these stocks have been hot for weeks now, the catalyst on Monday was the sudden popularity of Meta Platform’s (META) Muse AI agent. The underlying point that ran these stocks in a northerly direction on Monday was that AI agents can and must at times act autonomously.
Sticking With This Microsoft Price Target After AI Chief Sends Safety Warning
Interesting. Apparently, Microsoft (MSFT) AI chief Mustafa Suleyman appeared on Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNN over the weekend. (I read about it in Bloomberg). Suleyman feels that concerns related to parallel or uneven progress made by Chinese AI models should not be used as a reason against putting guardrails around the technology here.
We’ve Got Our Eye on the ‘Sky’ as a New Position
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Paramount Skydance (PSKY) and California’s attorney general are in advanced discussions over concessions that could be made to possibly settle a lawsuit blocking Paramount’s $110B merger with Warner Bros. (WBD). A dozen Democratic party-led state AGs, led by California, sued to block this deal back in July. A trial date had been set for this March.
Call Me Foolish, But I See Some Potential Market Catalysts Emerging
Don’t Stop Me Now I’m a shooting star leaping through the sky like a tiger Defying the laws of gravity I’m a racing car, passing by like Lady Godiva I’m gonna go, go, go, there’s no stopping me I’m burnin’ through the sky, yeah 200 degrees, that’s why they call me Mister Fahrenheit I’m travelling at the speed of light I wanna make a supersonic man out of you I’m having such a good time I’m having a ball (Don’t stop me now) if you wanna have a good time Just give me a call – David Paich,...
When Warren Buffett Called the Trading Floor
They call him the greatest. Maybe he is. If not, he’s pretty close. I guess now, I’ll tell the story of the only two brief encounters with Warren Buffett I ever had. I was a young floor trader at the time. The phone in front of me, someone else’s phone, rang. Wasn’t even a phone operated by my company, but I was friendly with the person whose phone it was. He was a far more important floor trader at the time and probably even in stock exchange history than was I. My friend’s phone rang. Several times.
New Ocular Therapeutix Target Price Amid Support
On Thursday, we covered the story reported by Bloomberg that drone delivery and logistics startup Zipline was in talks to raise roughly $1 billion in a funding round that would value the privately held company at about $20 billion. We discussed why such a fundraise might benefit portfolio holding Ondas Inc (ONDS). On Friday, there is more news, not related to Zipline, but related to fundraising activities that could benefit $10K Portfolio holdings.
The Sun Rises on Wall Street
What to make of this. We knew that there had been no volume-based confirmation of a bearish reversal of trend. We knew that market-wide breadth had been surprisingly strong for a “red candle” day on Wednesday. The market was set up for a relief rally on Thursday. This much we understood. What I do not think we, or at least I, understood was that the market was capable on Thursday of producing a rally exhibiting the kind of strength that it did.
Time to Plug Into Generac After It Generates Big Deal With Amazon?
The news broke Wednesday evening. It was disclosed, in a regulatory filing, that earlier that day Generac Holdings (GNRC) and Amazon (AMZN) had entered into a agreement. The gist of the deal? Amazon has agreed to buy up to $8 billion worth of generators from Generac to back-up power its data centers in support of its AI computing efforts. In exchange, Amazon gets the right to buy a stake in Generac (1.69 million shares) at a set price per share of $200.93.
What Zipline’s Head-Turning $20 Billion Valuation Means for Our Drone Holding
On Wednesday afternoon, Bloomberg News reported that drone delivery and logistics startup Zipline is in talks to raise roughly $1 billion in a funding round that would value the privately held California company at about $20 billion. The company is apparently in early talks to raise this capital, which would almost triple its previously understood valuation. Does this hurt or help $10,000 Portfolio holding Ondas Inc. (ONDS)? Good question.
The Price Problem
None of us were surprised. Still, somewhat, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s address in late August from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, did two things. One, Warsh signaled financial markets well ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s decision on how he viewed the short-to-medium-term trajectory for monetary policy. Two, with that speech, he really left himself with almost no wiggle room. This readership is aware of how I view the current economic environment.
Federal Reserve Signals More Interest Rate Hikes Ahead
The waiting is over. The anticipation may have been over a couple of weeks ago, but the pricing in by financial markets for what happened on Wednesday afternoon has been ongoing. In a move that surprised almost no one, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC voted 12-0 to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate (the federal fund rate) by 25 basis points to a target range spanning from 3.75% to 4%. The unanimous decision may have come as something of a surprise.
I’m Adding to This $10K Portfolio Stock, Shedding Some of Another
Portfolio holding Planet Labs (PL) on Tuesday said its subsidiary Planet Labs Germany had been awarded a Satellite Services tender by the German Federal Ministry of the Interior. This award marks Germany as the first civil government anywhere to acquire the firm’s dedicated Constellation Services operation. The firm sees this as potentially setting a new precedent for public-sector space procurement.
A Fed Under Pressure
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee will release its latest official policy statement at 2 p.m. ET. A quarter point rate hike has been pretty much baked into the cake over the past month or so, at 93% probability. That “pricing in” has become acute over the past couple of trading days as the yield paid by the U.S. Ten-Year Note has settled around 5% and prices for front-month crude oil have absolutely soared.
CrowdStrike Just Popped. Here’s My Plan and Why I’m Upping the Price Target.
It’s no secret. Everyone who reads me, knows that I have long been a fan of and investor in CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD). This is a stock that, depending on the last sale or the day, has been either the third or fourth largest holding (in dollar-terms) in the Sarge-folio. Point is that CRWD has been in my top five literally since the cows came home. The shares are up 176% in value since their 2026 low back in February. The shares are up 922% since the early 2023 low.
Buying More Rocket Lab After $1.9 Billion Acquisition Update
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Aspen Aerogels announced on Monday that the firm’s management will meet with Craig-Hallum at an event hosted by that firm on Tuesday, September 22. Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) On Tuesday morning, Ocular Therapeutix announced that the firm had completed its pre-new drug application, or NDA, and has met with the FDA for the firm’s investigational product candidate Axpaxli. This candidate is being considered for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration.
Feeling the Weight of the Market
You know what this market is starting to feel like? It’s starting to feel like having to carry a certain amount of gear on foot in a heavy rain. The more it rains, the heavier the gear gets. The heavier the gear gets, the more it makes one think about shedding unnecessary items. The more it rains, the more slippery the fitting as we continue to travel over dirt, over rocks, and over vegetation. Yep. That’s at least how I’m starting to feel. In actuality, equity markets have hung in there pretty well.
Our Small-Cap Holding Makes $205 Million Acquisition
On Monday morning, news broke that portfolio holding Ondas Inc (ONDS) had acquired privately held GATE Technologies. GATE Technologies is an Israeli-based defense technology contractor specializing in electronic safe and arm devices and advanced electronic fuzing technologies used across high-end precision weaponry as well as autonomous strike systems. Ondas will also acquire Bron Technologies. Bron Technologies is a Poland-headquartered manufacturing and certification company.
Why I Bought Nvidia Into Monday’s AI Panic
It’s ugly out there Monday morning. Shares of chip designers, chip manufacturers and all AI-related companies were hit with steep declines on Monday after several executives at leading U.S.-based AI companies called for slowing the pace of this kind of technological development amid concerns over potential risks to humanity. The beatdown started in Asia. Softbank (SFTBY), a large investor in OpenAI, was down more than 13% on Monday in Tokyo.
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