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Articles by Stephen Redding
A Network Approach to Geopolitics
We thank Harvard, Princeton, and Stanford Universities for research support. We are grateful to Chris Clayton, Georgy Egorov, Jim Fearon, Diana Van Patten and participants at the Barcelona School of Economics Summer Forum, the Cowles Foundation conference at Yale University, CIGS Conference on Macroeconomic Theory, European Central Bank, NBER Summer Institute, Princeton University, Stanford University, University of California Berkeley, and the Boston Fed, for helpful comments.
A Network Approach to Geopolitics
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies Abstract: We develop a tractable framework for analyzing geopolitics as a network of coordination and strategic influence. Countries choose geopolitical actions that trade off domestic interests against incentives to align with connected countries. They can exert costly bilateral influence to affect one another’s actions. We characterize equilibrium actions and bilateral influence in closed form.
Dynamic Effects of Trade
We are grateful to Princeton and Stanford Universities for research support. This paper was commissioned for the Journal of Economic Perspectives. We would like to thank Philippe Aghion, Chad Jones, Pete Klenow, Jeffrey Kling, Jonathan Parker, Tim Taylor, Chris Tonetti and Heidi Williams for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
DP21819 Dynamic Effects of Trade
English Français Deutsch Italiano 中文 More Español Ελληνικά 日本語 Português Türkçe The existence of aggregate welfare gains from trade is one of the classic insights from international economics. However, these conventional welfare gains are static, in the sense that they take existing factor supplies and production technologies at a point in time as given.
Dynamic Effects Of Trade
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International Trade in an Uncertain World
We are grateful to Princeton and Stanford Universities for research support.
DP21677 International Trade in an Uncertain World
English Français Deutsch Italiano 中文 More Español Ελληνικά 日本語 Português Türkçe We develop a tractable quantitative model of international trade in which agents make bilateral investments in resilience under general equilibrium uncertainty. Under both complete and incomplete financial markets, we show that these bilateral investments solve a portfolio problem of choosing trade partners.
The Economics of Tariffs
We are grateful to Stanford University and the University of Zurich for research support. This paper was commissioned for the Annual Review of Economics. We thank Philippe Aghion, Tim Besley, Hélène Rey and Serena Ng for the invitation to write this paper. We are grateful to Kyle Bagwell, Matteo Maggiori and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare for helpful comments. We thank David Xu for excellent research assistance.
The Economics of Tariffs
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Accommodating Emerging Giants in the Global Economy
We are grateful to Princeton and Stanford Universities for research support. This paper is prepared for the IMF Economic Review for the Annual Jacques Polak Conference of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We would like to thank Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Emine Boz, Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, our discussant Mike Waugh, and participants at the 26th Jacques Polak Conference for helpful comments. We are grateful to David Xu for excellent research assistance.
Evaluating Transport Improvements in Spatial Equilibrium
Skip to main content This paper was written while visiting Stanford University as a Trione Visiting Professor. I am grateful to Stanford University for all of its kind hospitality. This paper was commissioned for the Advances in Economics and Econometrics monograph for the World Congress of the Econometric Society in South Korea in 2025.
Spatial Economics
This paper was commissioned for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. I am grateful to Princeton University for research support. I would like to thank Zhuokai Huang for excellent research assistance. I am grateful to Dave Donaldson, Ed Glaeser and Jacques-François Thisse for helpful comments. Any errors, limitations and omissions are the responsibility of the author alone.
Quantitative Urban Economics
Skip to main content I am grateful to Princeton University for research support. This paper was commissioned for the Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics. An accompanying Online Appendix contains the technical derivations of all results. A toolkit with the Matlab code for the baseline quantitative urban model in Section 4 is available from https://www.quantitativeurbanmodels.com/. I am grateful to Arthur Adam and Zhuokai Huang for excellent research assistance.
The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion
Skip to main content We are grateful to Princeton University, the University of Bristol and the University of Toronto for research support.
Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective
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Neighborhood Effects: Evidence from Wartime Destruction in London
Skip to main content Redding and Sturm thank Princeton University and the European Research Council (ERC) for financial support, respectively. We are grateful to the London Metropolitan Archives (LMA) for sharing the London County Council (LCC) bomb damage maps and to the British Library of Political and Economic Science (BLPES) at LSE for sharing the New Survey of London Life and Labor maps.
Neoclassical Growth in an Interdependent World
Skip to main content We are grateful to Princeton University for research support. We would like to thank Mark Aguiar, Matteo Maggiori, Helene Rey, Jesse Schreger, Jaume Ventura, Chenzi Xu and seminar and conference participants at the Global Economic Networks (GEN) Conference, NBER ITM Summer Institute, Houston University, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Princeton University, and Stanford University SITE Conference for helpful comments.
The Linear Algebra of Economic Geography Models
Skip to main content We are grateful to Princeton University for research support. We would to thank Chenming Zhang for excellent research assistance. This paper was prepared for the American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings. The usual disclaimer applies. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Journal of Economic Perspectives
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The Economics of Cities: From Theory to Data
I am grateful to Princeton University for research support. Thanks to Nan Xiang for excellent research assistance. This paper was commissioned for the Journal of Economic Perspectives. I am very grateful to the editors, Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Treb Allen, Jason Barr, Dave Donaldson and Clifford Winston for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution
Skip to main content The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to any institutions to which the authors are affiliated. We would like to thank Leah Boustan, Patrick Francois, Nathan Nunn, Elias Papaiannou, Raoul Sanchez de la Sierra, and Noam Yuchtman as well as seminar audiences at CEPR, Dartmouth, LACEA, NBER Summer Institute, Princeton, RIDGE, UBC Vancouver and Zurich for helpful feedback. Ellora Derenoncourt generously shared data and helpful comments.
Structural Change Within versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States
Skip to main content We thank Enghin Atalay, Marcela Eslava, Bob Gibbons, John Haltiwanger and Chad Syverson for helpful discussion comments. We also thank numerous participants at seminars and conferences for helpful comments, Sam Bondurant and Jim Davis for help with the disclosure process, and Jack Liang for excellent research assistance. The empirical research in this paper was conducted at the Boston and Yale Federal Statistical Research Data Centers.
How much do we know about the development impacts of large-scale integrated transport infrastructure?
The Infra4Dev Conference, jointly organized by the World Bank and the International Growth Centre on March 3rd-4th 2022, brought together the academic and policy-making community to exchange knowledge and insights regarding the different roles that infrastructure can play in catalyzing development.
What smartphone data tells us about Tokyo's economy
A new model uses smartphone data to analyse the spatial variation in the economic activity of the Greater Tokyo metropolitan area. It considers both communiting and non-communiting trips to better understand this variation. Looking just at community provides a misleading picture of travel patterns, the researchers argue. Understanding the spatial concentration of economic activity is one of the most central challenges in economics.
Consumer city: Evidence from smartphone data
Yuhei Miyauchi, Kentaro Nakajima, Stephen Redding 04 August 2021 Traditional theories emphasise production decisions and the commuting costs of workers in shaping the spatial concentration of economic activity in cities. However, much of urban travel is related to consumption of non-traded services, such as trips to restaurants, shopping centres, and cultural venues.
Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium
We are grateful to Princeton University for research support. A previous version of this paper circulated under the title “Sufficient Statistics for Dynamic Spatial Economics.” We would like to thank conference and seminar participants at Dartmouth, Hong Kong, NBER, Nottingham and Princeton for helpful comments. We are also grateful to Andrew Cassey, Fariha Kamal, Martha Loewe, Youngjin Song and Abigail Wozniak for their help with data.
Trade and innovation
International trade is a key determinant of firm profitability and survival, so it is natural to expect it to influence both incentives to innovate and the rate of creative destruction. This column highlights four key mechanisms through which international trade affects endogenous innovation and growth: market size, competition, comparative advantage, and knowledge spillovers. Each of these mechanisms offers potential static and dynamic welfare gains.
Trade and Innovation
We are grateful to Harvard University and Princeton University for research support. This paper was commissioned for the conference and book “The Economics of Creative Destruction” in Honor of Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt. Thanks to Sam Kortum, Dan Trefler and participants at the conference for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Suburbanization in the United States 1970-2010
I am grateful to Princeton University for research support. This paper was invited for the 100th-year anniversary of Economica, published by the London School of Economics. I am grateful to the editors for the invitation to participate in this event. I would also like to thank Daniel Sturm and participants at the conference for their helpful comments.
The Economics of Spatial Mobility: Theory and Evidence Using Smartphone Data
This paper absorbs and replaces material that previously circulated under the title “Consumption Access and the Spatial Concentration of Economic Activity: Evidence from Smartphone Data.” Thanks to Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Milena Almagro, Daniel Sturm, Gabriel Kreindler, Tobias Salz and conference and seminar participants for helpful comments. We are grateful to Takeshi Fukasawa, Peter Deffebach, and Yun-Ting Yeh for excellent research assistance. The usual disclaimer applies.
Globalisation and pandemics
Pol Antràs, Stephen Redding, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg 15 October 2020 Throughout human history, globalisation and pandemics have been closely intertwined. This column introduces a theoretical framework to analyse the relationship between the two. Deepening global integration can either increase or decrease the range of parameters for which a pandemic occurs.
Modelling the evolution of trade relationships since 1970
International friends and enemies: Modelling the evolution of trade relationships since 1970 Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu, Stephen Redding 17 September 2020 The increasingly prominent role of China in the world economy has led to widespread discussions concerning the balance of power, trade relations, and economic development.
International friends and enemies
As countries become greater economic friends in terms of the welfare effects of their productivity growth, they become greater political friends in terms of United Nations voting and strategic rivalries. One of the most dramatic changes in the world economy over the past half century has been China’s emergence as a major force in world trade. A central question in international economics is the implications of such economic growth for the income and welfare of its trade partners.
Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective
This paper is forthcoming in the American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 2020. We would like to thank Karen Ni and Angela Wu for excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System, any other institution to which the authors are affiliated, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare
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The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare
Mary Amiti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Stephen J. Redding, Princeton University | David Weinstein, Columbia University Editor’s Note: This summary was originally posted by the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. The full paper is available for download in the Fall 2019 Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities
DOI: 10.1257/aer.20151507 Abstract: We provide theory and evidence that the elasticity of local employment to a labor demand shock is heterogeneous depending on the commuting openness of the local labor market. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model that incorporates spatial linkages in goods markets (trade) and factor markets (commuting and migration). We quantify this model to match the observed gravity equation relationships for trade and commuting.
The making of modern London
What accounts for London's explosive growth in the 19th and early 20th centuries? Tim Phillips talks to Stephen Redding of Princeton University about new research that shows how important the railways have been, and continue to be, in creating the modern metropolis.
The making of the modern metropolis: Evidence from London
The making of the modern metropolis: Evidence from London Over the last two centuries, transportation innovations have drastically changed urban landscapes. This column explores how the mid-19th century transport revolution shaped the urban agglomeration of London. The results show Greater London’s population would have been 30% lower in 1921 without the railway network.
Trade and inequality: From theory to estimation
Starting from a closed economy, trade liberalisation increases wage inequality; as costs fall further, wage inequality peaks and also starts to fall Until recently, research on the labour market effects of international trade has been heavily influenced by traditional theories such as the Heckscher-Ohlin and specific factors models, which provide predictions about relative wages across skill groups, occupations, and sectors.
The sources of export success
Existing research on export heterogeneity between countries has typically focused on the importance of individual factors. This column presents a unified framework for understanding these contributions in concert. Using US and Chilean data, it demonstrates that products within firms, firms within sectors, and sectors in aggregate are indeed imperfect substitutes. It further shows that models that assume no quality shifts and no changes in variety perform poorly on trade data.
This is the impact of global firms on trade
Modern international trade increasingly takes place in complex cross-border global value chains (Johnson and Noguera 2012, Amador and di Mauro 2015). Even as global production has grown more complex, events of the last year have raised questions about the future growth of international trade. In Europe, the Brexit vote threatens to roll back decades of closer regional integration.
What big data tells us about real income growth | VOX, CEPR's Policy Portal
What big data tells us about real income growth Big data stands to transform economic measurement in substantial ways. The volume and precision of data available allows economists to revisit the foundational assumptions underpinning common indexes. This column presents a new empirical methodology that leverages big data to translate nominal numbers into real output or welfare. ‘The unified approach’ nests major price indexes and addresses implicit biases in these measures.
Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries
Many writers have claimed that research and development (R&D) has two faces. In addition to the conventional role of stimulating innovation, R&D enhances technology transfer (absorptive capacity). We explore this idea empirically using a panel of industries across twelve OECD countries. We find R&D to be statistically and economically important in both technological catch-up and innovation. Human capital also plays an major role in productivity growth, but we only find a small effect of trade.
Productivity convergence and foreign ownership at the establishment level
This paper investigates whether there is convergence in Total Factor Productivity towards the technological frontier at the establishment level. We find convergence to the frontier is statistically and quantitatively important, suggesting the existence of technology spillovers. Foreign multinationals make up a significant proportion of establishments at the technological frontier, and therefore make a contribution to productivity growth through technology transfer.
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