Prof @au_sis. Think tanker @CNASdc. Sr editor @warontherocks. Former DoD and HFAC. Wrote some books: amzn.to/2SXWUQ6; amzn.to/2QS2xwJ
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Articles by Stephen Tankel
Battle Damage Assessments and Public Messaging
In the days following Operation Midnight Hammer—the June 22 strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites—the White House projected a confident verdict. In his address to the American people just hours after the operation, President Donald Trump declared the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program—a claim he repeated three days later.
In Brief: How Might Defense Budget Cuts Affect Investments in Emerging Technologies?
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. *** Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered that the Department of Defense conduct a review of its Fiscal Year 2026 budget.
Book Review Roundtable: The Muslim Brotherhood and the West
1. Introduction: The Muslim Brotherhood and the West — The Antagonism that Defines a Movement Ryan Evans It’s impossible to discuss the influence of political Islam without discussing the Muslim Brotherhood. As Martyn Frampton makes clear in his 2018 comprehensive history of the organization, it’s similarly impossible to discuss the Muslim Brotherhood without discussing its engagement with the West.
Positive Visions, Powerful Partnerships
Executive Summary The United States was losing ground to China in the Indo-Pacific when the COVID-19 crisis began. China’s growing economic might, military modernization, and aggressive diplomatic efforts were already eroding America’s competitive advantage and shifting the regional balance of power.
Book Review Roundtable: Leadership Targeting
1. Introduction: No Silver Bullets — The Limitations of Decapitation Strikes By Stephen Tankel In the wake of 9/11, President George W. Bush’s administration outlined a mission requiring a massive counter-terrorism campaign that would have been difficult to sell to the American people before al-Qaeda attacked the U.S. homeland.
War Powers: What Are They Good For?
Introduction In March, in a joint resolution, Congress directed the president to terminate military hostilities against Iran unless authorized by Congress. The vote represented a relatively rare example of congressional efforts to reassert authority over the use of American force. Predictably, however, President Donald Trump vetoed the measure, and Congress lacked the votes to override.
Reforming U.S. Security Sector Assistance
Stephen Tankel & Tommy Ross War on the Rocks October 29, 2020 One of America’s most important foreign policy tools is not fit for purpose. U.S. security sector assistance — the means by which the United States strengthens alliances and partners — is stuck in the past. Crucially, it is out of sync with U.S. priorities when it comes to where resources are needed most and the types of capabilities required by America’s allied and partners. Read Full Article »
Retooling U.S. Security Sector Assistance
Tommy Ross & Stephen Tankel War on the Rocks October 29, 2020 Despite widespread agreement on the need to prioritize strategic competition with Russia and China, the United States still directs a disproportionate amount of assistance toward the Middle East. An emphasis on counter-terrorism since 9/11 has also contributed to an emphasis on building the wrong capabilities.
Retooling U.S. Security Sector Assistance
One of America’s most important foreign policy tools is not fit for purpose. U.S. security sector assistance — the means by which the United States strengthens alliances and partners — is stuck in the past. Crucially, it is out of sync with U.S. priorities when it comes to where resources are needed most and the types of capabilities required by America’s allied and partners.
Enhancing Forward Defense: The Role of Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific
The Bottom Line Even though U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific are essential to meeting the challenge of a rising, assertive China, U.S. defense policy has not adapted to the reality of a changed strategic environment or the evolving needs and defense priorities of key allies. The new National Defense Strategy (NDS) presents an opportunity for the next secretary of defense to do three things to remedy this: Work with allies and partners to pursue more potent and sustainable defense capabilities.
Sharper: America's Next Defense Strategy
The 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) will provide an essential blueprint for civilian and military leaders to answer America’s greatest defense challenges, including threats posed by China, Russia, and longstanding rogue actors like Iran and North Korea. CNAS experts are sharpening the conversation surrounding the future of America’s defense priorities.
Making the U.S. Military’s Counter-Terrorism Mission Sustainable
One of the many hallmarks of the Trump administration has been its capricious approach to troops deployments, especially ones related to counter-terrorism. President Donald Trump has zigged and zagged on whether to maintain troops in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, sometimes sending Pentagon planners scrambling to keep up. Over the weekend, his administration threatened to pull out U.S. forces from Iraq as a way to pressure the government there to rein in Iran-backed militia groups.
Sustaining the Future of Indo-Pacific Defense Strategy
The Bottom Line The 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) should sustain the Indo-Pacific as the priority theater.
A Resource-Sustainable Strategy for Countering Violent Extremist Organizations
The Bottom Line The 2018 National Defense Strategy deprioritized the countering violent extremist organizations (CVEO) mission, but the Department of Defense (DoD) has yet to develop a resource-sustainable approach to conducting this mission. As a result, the current approach remains unsustainable.
Institutional Roadblocks to the Defense Department’s Adoption of AI
Introduction Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present remarkable opportunities and novel challenges for America’s national security institutions.
The Growing Irrelevance of of State's List of Countries Not Cooperating on Counterterrorism
It’s tough to keep up with the news these days, so many readers might have missed that the State Department announced that it was certifying five countries – Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, and Cuba – as “not cooperating fully” with U.S. counterterrorism efforts in 2019. The notification to Congress and certification are annual events, but it was unusual for the State Department to issue a press release to go along with them. Why such a decision was made is unclear.
Trump’s Moves Are Right Out of the Authoritarian Playbook
While the coronavirus pandemic crystalized Donald Trump’s ignorance and incompetence, we may look back at his response to the current civil unrest as the moment when his longtime flirtation with authoritarianism hardened into something more sinister.
Great-Power Competition Is Washington’s Top Priority-But Not the Public’s
For all the acrimony in Washington today, the city’s foreign policy establishment is settling on a rare bipartisan consensus: that the world has entered a new era of great-power competition. The struggle between the United States and other great powers, the emerging consensus holds, will fundamentally shape geopolitics going forward, for good or ill.
Effective U.S. Grand Strategy Includes Harnessing Diverse Educational Institutions
How often have we heard, “Don’t bring a knife to a gun fight?” Arguably, the U.S. government continues to do just that by not leveraging the inherent advantages in the diversity of our nation to combat national security threats. Understanding the psychology — motivation, environment, and influences — of the adversary is key to quickly comprehending, adapting to, and mitigating attacks.
The Early Edition: August 19, 2019
Signup to receive the Early Edition in your inbox here. Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news. AFGHANISTAN A suicide bombing in a packed wedding hall in Afghan’s capital Kabul late Saturday evening killed 63 people and wounded 182 others, according to spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry Nasrat Rahimi.
Recap of Recent Articles on Just Security (August 5-16)
We are a forum on law, rights, and U.S. national security. You can follow on Twitter @just_security
Part III: The Muddy Middle: A New Framework for Use of Force
(Editor’s Note: This is the final of three articles on how the lines have blurred between U.S. military operating procedures for use of force in hot war zones versus outside areas of active hostilities and how the executive branch and Congress might better govern operations going forward.
Proportionality and 150 Iranian Lives: Do They “Count”?
CNN reported on Aug. 1 that Retired Admiral William McRaven, the former Navy SEAL who led the Bin Laden raid, weighed in on President Donald Trump’s claim that he called off a strike at the last minute in response to the Iranian shootdown of an unmanned U.S. drone when he learned of the likely number of casualties.
The Early Edition: August 16, 2019
Signup to receive the Early Edition in your inbox here. Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news. IRAN The authorities in Britain’s Mediterranean territory Gibraltar yesterday decided to release an Iranian oil tanker detained on Jul. 4 on suspicion of smuggling oil to Syria in breach of European Union (E.U.) sanctions — despite a last-minute plea by the U.S. to hold it.
How Data Privacy Laws Can Fight Fake News
Governments from Russia to Iran have exploited social media’s connectivity, openness, and polarization to influence elections, sow discord, and drown out dissent. While responses have also begun to proliferate, more still are needed to reduce the inherent vulnerability of democracies to such tactics. Recent data privacy laws may offer one such answer in limiting how social media uses personal information to micro-target content: Fake news becomes a lot less scary if it can’t choose its readers.
Part II: The Muddy Middle: Challenges of Applying Use of Force Policy Guidance in Practice
(Editor’s Note: This is the second of three articles on how the lines have blurred between U.S. military operating procedures for use of force in hot war zones versus outside areas of active hostilities and how the executive branch and Congress might better govern operations going forward.
The Early Edition: August 15, 2019
Signup to receive the Early Edition in your inbox here. Before the start of business, Just Security provides a curated summary of up-to-the-minute developments at home and abroad. Here’s today’s news.
The Muddy Middle: The Disappearing Lines in America’s Counterterrorism Wars and How to Restore Order
(Editor’s Note: This is the first of three articles on how the lines have blurred between U.S. military operating procedures for use of force in hot war zones versus outside areas of active hostilities and how the executive branch and Congress might better govern operations going forward.) Mohammed Atef, al-Qaida’s military chief at the time of the 9/11 attacks, appears to have been one of the first casualties of America’s remote-killing campaign.
Horns of a Dilemma: The Politics of Partnership in the War on Terror
In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Stephen Tankel, associate professor in the School of International Service at American University and associate editor of the Texas National Security Review, discusses his recently published book, With Us and Against Us: How America’s Partners Help and Hinder the War on Terror. This talk took place at the University of Texas at Austin and was sponsored by the Clements Center. Music and Production by Tre Hester
Book Review Roundtable: How Are America's Wars Financed?
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In an Era of Divided Government, China Can Unite
December 14, 2018 By Richard Fontaine Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Print The televised bickering between President Trump and top Democratic leaders illustrates that, if political leaders find any consensus in 2019, it won’t be on the border wall. Nor is it likely that Trump, the Democratic House and Republican Senate will find accord on Russia policy, the approach to Saudi Arabia, North Korea diplomacy or, for that matter, almost any other foreign-policy issue.
There Is No Grand Bargain With China
In true showmanship fashion, U.S. President Donald Trump is keeping the world in suspense about whether he will soon double down on the United States’ trade war with China or call a truce. The big reveal will come after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the margins of the G-20 in Buenos Aires later this week. Trump has at times been optimistic, telling reporters, “I think a deal will be made. We’ll find out very soon.” Don’t believe the hype.
Ten Years After Mumbai, the Group Responsible is Deadlier Than Ever
Ten years ago today, ten gunmen from Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a complex attack that lasted over 60 hours against India’s commercial capital, Mumbai. They targeted two luxury hotels, one of the country’s busiest railway stations, a café popular with foreign tourists, and a Jewish community center. The “26/11 attacks,” as they are known in India, left 166 people dead, and put Lashkar-e-Taiba on the global map.
Ten Years After Mumbai, the Group Responsible Is Deadlier Than Ever
Ten years ago today, ten gunmen from Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a complex attack that lasted over 60 hours against India’s commercial capital, Mumbai. They targeted two luxury hotels, one of the country’s busiest railway stations, a café popular with foreign tourists, and a Jewish community center. The “26/11 attacks,” as they are known in India, left 166 people dead, and put Lashkar-e-Taiba on the global map.
Policy Roundtable: The Pros and Cons of Security Assistance
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Riding the Tiger: How Trump Enables Right-Wing Extremism
Like many security analysts of my generation, the 9/11 attacks shaped my scholarly interests and career trajectory. I have spent years researching jihadist terrorism in the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, and the Balkans — regions where leaders have embraced hardline religious movements, concocted conspiracy theories, and instrumentalized ethno-national, tribal, and sectarian sentiments in pursuit of power.
Why Wasn't Cesar Sayoc Charged With Domestic Terrorism?
Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh was convicted of murder, and the Charleston church shooter Dylann Roof was convicted of federal hate crimes, despite the fact that both men’s actions clearly met the U.S. definition of terrorism. The Unabomber Ted Kaczynski — one of the most famous American terrorists, who earned his sobriquet sending bombs through the mail— pleaded guilty to illegally transporting, mailing, and using bombs, and three counts of murder, but not to terrorism.
Has Trump Read His Own Counterterrorism Strategy?
The Trump’s administration last week finally issued its long-awaited National Strategy for Counterterrorism. The document claims to mark “a shift in America’s approach to countering and preventing terrorism.” In reality, it exhibits considerable continuity with the Obama administration’s approach, which in turn built on adaptions President George W. Bush made during his second term.
The Future Of Regional Cooperation In The War On Terror
Four veteran counterterrorism experts discuss whether America’s alliances with Middle East partners have helped or hindered the fight against global extremism. On September 14, Matthew Levitt, Stephen Tankel, Tricia Bacon, and Barak Mendelsohn addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Levitt is the Institute’s Fromer-Wexler Fellow and editor of its recent compilation Neither Remaining Nor Expanding: The Decline of the Islamic State.
China is Waging a Maritime Insurgency in the South China Sea. It's Time for the United States to Counter It.
The United States’ present approach to countering China’s continued creeping aggression in the South China Sea has failed. The U.S. Navy is not achieving it long-term political objectives of using Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to substantively change China’s revisionist attitudes and belligerent behavior in the region, or to uphold the rule of international law. However, our failure thus far is not final.
Stephen Tankel: On Counterterrorism
Stephen Tankel—associate professor in the School of International Service at American University and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security—joins the EWI podcast to discuss terrorism, counterterrorism and his new book With Us And Against Us: How America’s Partners Help and Hinder the War on Terror.
Book Review Roundtable: America’s Hot and Cold Relationship with Its Counterterrorism Partners
With many Americans — led by the current occupant of the White House — questioning the value of global partnerships and talking as though the United States would be better off going it alone, there is no better time to assess the role other countries play in achieving U.S. counterterrorism objectives. Anyone who has been involved in crafting U.S. counterterrorism policy inside the government knows the essential importance of these relationships.
Counterterrorism Strategy in the Trump Era - Firm or Faux?
U.S. counterterrorism has been a mixture of unilateral policies and multilateral partnerships. Stephen Tankel of American University joins us today to discuss the trajectory of U.S. counterterrorism strategy under the Trump administration. See this Segment and more from the CATO Institute
Counterterrorism Strategy in the Trump Era - Firm or Faux?
U.S. counterterrorism has been a mixture of unilateral policies and multilateral partnerships. Stephen Tankel of American University joins us today to discuss the trajectory of U.S. counterterrorism strategy under the Trump administration.
WOTR Podcast: Counterterrorism With Partner Countries: Promise or Peril?
Partner cooperation is crucial when it comes to fighting terrorism, but it’s also complex. Stephen Tankel, assistant professor at American University and — most importantly — a senior editor here at War on the Rocks, examines U.S. counterterrorism cooperation in his new book With Us and Against Us: How America’s Partners Help and Hinder the War on Terror.
Doing More With Less: How To Optimize U.S. Counterterrorism
Editor’s Note: This is the second installment in “Below the Threshold,” a new column by Stephen Tankel (@stephentankel). During a stint in government as a senior advisor at the Defense Department, I frequently heard about the need to “do more with less.” This aphorism struck me as overly optimistic and perhaps even naive.
On China’s New Silk Road, Democracy Pays A Toll
Great power competition is back. And China is now combining its vast economic resources with a muscular presence on the global stage. One of Beijing’s key efforts is the Belt and Road Initiative, a trillion-dollar endeavor to link together Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe through a web of mostly Chinese-funded physical and digital infrastructure.
Donald Trump’s Shadow War
Five days after taking the oath of office, President Donald Trump dined with some members of his national security team. During the meal, Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford roughly outlined a plan for a risky counterterrorism raid in Yemen targeting Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula—the terrorist group’s most dangerous local affiliate.
LIGHTFOOT as ‘triple threat’ — CIVIC FEDERATION’s reality check — CUPICH and SISTER JEAN’s tax scholarship pitch
LIGHTFOOT as ‘triple threat’ — CIVIC FEDERATION’s reality check — CUPICH and SISTER JEAN’s tax scholarship pitch 05/09/2018 07:39 AM EDT By Natasha Korecki (nkorecki@politico.com ; @natashakorecki) and Kristen East (keast@politico.com ; @kristenicoleast) Good Wednesday morning, Illinois. Story Continued Below THE BUZZ: The worst-kept secret in Chicago politics is out: Lori Lightfoot is running for mayor and is expected to announce Thursday.
Beyond the State Sponsors List: Finding the Right Tools to Counter Russia
Editor’s Note: We are happy to introduce “Below the Threshold,” a new column by Stephen Tankel (@stephentankel). State sponsor of terrorism: It’s a toxic label that signals to the international community that the state in question should be treated as a pariah. Designation also carries with it a wide range of sanctions, including a ban on arms-related exports and sales, prohibitions on economic assistance, and the imposition of other financial restrictions.
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