Convener of Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Professor of Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Bombay, India. IPCC AR6 WG-I Lead Author
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Articles by Subimal Ghosh
Unraveling the intractable trilemma in urban weather and climate modeling
Abstract Urban weather and climate modeling is challenged by the highly heterogeneous and dynamic nature of cities. It exhibits a persistent trilemma between spatial granularity, spatiotemporal coverage, and physical interpretability. We articulate this challenge and propose a hybrid framework integrating physics-based models, urban observations, and machine learning.
Forest-savanna stability in India under human interventions and changing climate - Communications Earth & Environment
Abstract Terrestrial vegetation, particularly forests and savannas, is vital for regulating water and carbon cycles; however, its resilience to climate change remains largely unexplored in India. Our study projects that global warming will increase the likelihood of a shift from forest to savanna-like conditions in major Indian forest regions by the late 21st century.
Extreme rainfall poses the biggest risk to Mumbai’s most vulnerable people
Bearpark, T., Rode, A. & Patankar, A. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09730-4 (2025). Article Google Scholar He, C. et al. BMJ 387, e080944 (2024). Article PubMed Google Scholar Sanyour, A. & Chaturvedi, S. in Urbanization, Climate Change, and Health (eds Almulhim, A. I., Leal Filho, W. & Sharifi, A.) 25–47 (Springer, 2025). Google Scholar Dholakia, H. H., Jalan, I. & Garg, A. in Extreme Weather Events and Human Health (ed. Akhtar, R.) 355–367 (Springer, 2020).
North-South Asymmetry of Pre‐Monsoon Rainfall Over the Western Ghats in India
Conflicts of Interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Supporting Information Filename Description joc70046-sup-0001-Supinfo.docxWord 2007 document , 4.1 MB Data S1. Supporting Information. References , , , , and . 2020. “Indian Monsoon Derailed by a North Atlantic Wavetrain.” Science 370, no. 6522: 1335–1338. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay6043. , , , et al. 2015. “Reviews of Geophysics Western Disturbances: A Review.” Reviews of Geophysics 53: 225–246.
Assessment of Rainfall Forecasts and Flood Risk in a Coastal Urban Catchment Considering Different Urban Canopy Scenarios
1 Introduction Large parts of the globe are likely to witness an intensification of extreme precipitation with global warming due to increased atmospheric moisture as a result of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (Allen and Ingram 2002). Therefore, these events correspond to the escalation in magnitude and frequency of pluvial floods (Rentschler et al. 2022), which account for the most extensive, devastating, and frequent natural hazards (Di Baldassarre et al.
Global land drought hubs confounded by teleconnection hotspots in equatorial oceans - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Abstract Emerging data-driven techniques, such as Complex Networks (CNs), can identify spatial linkages between droughts on a global scale and can improve early warning systems. Recent studies used CNs to identify hotspots of global drought teleconnections as land drought hubs; however, these studies excluded the ocean regions in CN, an oversight that can upend the insights gained thus far.
Warming inhibits increases in vegetation net primary productivity despite greening in India - Scientific Reports
Abstract India is the second-highest contributor to the post-2000 global greening. However, with satellite data, here we show that this 18.51% increase in Leaf Area Index (LAI) during 2001–2019 fails to translate into increased carbon uptake due to warming constraints. Our analysis further shows 6.19% decrease in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) during 2001–2019 over the temporally consistent forests in India despite 6.75% increase in LAI.
Climate resilience of dry season cereals in India - Scientific Reports
Abstract India is the world’s second largest producer of wheat, with more than 40% increase in production since 2000. Increasing temperatures raise concerns about wheat’s sensitivity to heat. Traditionally-grown sorghum is an alternative rabi (winter season) cereal, but area under sorghum production has declined more than 20% since 2000. We examine sensitivity of wheat and sorghum yields to historical temperature and compare water requirements in districts where both cereals are cultivated.
Improving the subseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate model
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT The Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA55) (Ebita et al., 2011; Kobayashi et al., 2015) data is archived at https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.0/. Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature version 2 (OISST) is used to verify model-simulated SST is provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, CO, from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
Representing Indian Agricultural Practices and Paddy Cultivation in the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model
Abstract Increased irrigation due to agricultural intensification has profound impacts on the surface water and energy balance at regional to local scales. Recent updates of the state-of-the-art Land Surface Models (LSMs) include the impacts of irrigation on surface hydrology. The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is one of the global hotspots of irrigation water applications. However, the direct application of these models to Indian basins has certain limitations.
Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves - Nature Communications
Abstract Increased occurrence of heatwaves across different parts of the world is one of the characteristic signatures of anthropogenic warming. With a 1.3 billion population, India is one of the hot spots that experience deadly heatwaves during May-June – yet the large-scale physical mechanism and teleconnection patterns driving such events remain poorly understood.
Near‐term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.
Abstract [1] Given its large population, vigorous and water‐intensive agricultural industry, and important ecological resources, the western United States presents a valuable case study for examining potential near‐term changes in regional hydroclimate.
A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India - Nature Communications
Abstract Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined.
Improving Global Forecast System of Extreme Precipitation Events with Regional Statistical Model: Application of Quantile based Probabilistic Forecasts - Shastri - 2017 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres - Wiley Online Library
Forecasting of extreme precipitation events at a regional scale is of high importance due to their severe impacts on society. The impacts are stronger in urban regions due to high flood potential as well high population density leading to high vulnerability. Though significant scientific improvements took place in the global models for weather forecasting, still they are not adequate at a regional scale (e.g., for an urban region) with high false alarms and low detection.
Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover
During the 1980s, the dominant LULC type in India was woody savanna, which was mostly forest land, and this type was especially dominant over Central India, the majority of Peninsular India and Northeast India (Fig. 1). Because of development and agricultural intensification, these regions were largely deforested, and woody savanna was converted to cropland.
Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality
Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has a high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents the first projections of future heat waves in India based on multiple climate models and scenarios for CMIP5 data.
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