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Articles by Susannah Patton
2025 Asia Power Index Report
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Australia faces challenges
The Lowy Institute is an independent Australian think tank producing authoritative research, innovative data tools, and expert commentary on international affairs. We acknowledge the Gadigal people of the Eora nation, the traditional custodians of the land on which the Institute stands, and pays respects to their Elders, past and present. Copyright © 2026 Lowy Institute, 31 Bligh Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
Women, security, power and policy
To mark International Women’s Day, Lowy Institute fellows Susannah Patton and Serena Sasingian speak with Lydia Khalil in a wide-ranging discussion on women in international relations. They explore how gender equality strategies fit into realist power politics, how the global rise of “strongman” politics is threatening hard-won gains for women worldwide, and the relationship between gender equality and national power.
Commentary: Myanmar and Timor-Leste quarrel calls ASEAN’s conventional wisdom into question
SYDNEY: The conventional account of why Timor-Leste’s membership of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is good for regional security goes something like this: Timor-Leste is a young, post-conflict, least-developed country. Membership of the region’s premier regional grouping will give it access to economic opportunities, including trade and international assistance which flows to ASEAN as a group.
Myanmar and Timor-Leste quarrel
The conventional account of why Timor-Leste’s membership of ASEAN is good for regional security goes something like this: Timor-Leste is a young, post-conflict, least-developed country. Membership of the region’s premier regional grouping will give it access to economic opportunities, including trade and international assistance which flows to ASEAN as a group.
Peace the Asian way?: China’s role in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict
In late December, Thailand and Cambodia reached another ceasefire agreement, their third since their long-running border conflict escalated in mid-2025. While decisions made in Phnom Penh and Bangkok are the most important factor in the agreement and its longevity, both the United States and China have competed to position themselves as peacemaker. The US role – driven by Donald Trump’s ambition to mediate several international conflicts – has been relatively clear.
The Australia-Indonesia pact won’t shift the regional balance
In the sunlit uplands of Australia’s strategic imagination, Canberra and Jakarta work together in pursuit of shared security goals, giving Canberra greater knowledge of and ability to influence security developments in the Indonesian archipelago. In a nightmare scenario, Indonesia is hostile, or collaborates with hostile powers, and disregards Australian interests. The reality, of course, will lie somewhere in between.
Australia’s Strategic Priorities and Challenges with Southeast Asia
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Australia’s Strategic Priorities and Challenges with Southeast Asia
Going into the 2022 election, improving relations with Southeast Asia was at the top of the foreign policy to-do list for the Australian Labor Party, led by now prime minister Anthony Albanese. While the outgoing Liberal-National coalition government had notched up some achievements in its engagement with the region, there was also a sense of drift.
Trump’s Week in Asia: Gifts, Deals, and Submarines
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. ––––––– Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump took a major trip to Asia, where he sought to make peace and trade deals. He started in Malaysia on Oct. 26, arriving for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit.
Trump’s Week in Asia: Gifts, Deals, and Submarines
This article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump took a major trip to Asia, where he sought to make peace and trade deals. He started in Malaysia on Oct. 26, arriving for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. Next, he traveled to Japan to meet with the new prime minister. Trump wrapped up his visit in South Korea during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
ASEAN summits in 2025: Trump centrality
Donald Trump and ASEAN are not a natural fit. Trump, a leader who emphasises his own unique deal-making genius to reshape international affairs. ASEAN, a group that prioritises consensus and incremental cooperation over decades. Trump, who likes meetings he controls. ASEAN, a group that cherishes its own “centrality” or ability to set the regional agenda. During his first term as President, Trump attended just one ASEAN summit, in the Philippines.
Southeast Asia Influence Index - Key Findings Report
The Southeast Asia Influence Index maps the landscape of geopolitical influence in this crucial region. Building on an existing body of data-driven research by the Lowy Institute, this new project is the first comprehensive assessment of the influence of major powers in the eleven countries of Southeast Asia.
Conversations: Understanding influence in Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia is one of the most geopolitically diverse and contested regions of the world. But does China or the United States have more influence? And is it even accurate to describe the region’s geopolitics in these terms? Research Director Hervé Lemahieu talks with two of the authors of the newly launched Southeast Asia Influence Index, Susannah Patton and Rahman Yaacob.
Is the U.S. Really Losing to China in Southeast Asia?
A major new research project published by the Lowy Institute says yes – but there’s more to the story. Over the past couple of years, a consensus among analysts and scholars has emerged: except in the Philippines, the United States is losing ground to China in Southeast Asia. Whether it’s a lack of positive U.S. economic engagement with the region, patchy diplomatic attention, or a loss of support in Muslim-majority countries owing to U.S. support for Israel, the story has not been a good one.
The Two Southeast Asias
Policymakers and scholars in the West talk about Southeast Asia as a coherent region, but it has always been divided. The region’s 700 million people speak hundreds of languages and follow different religions, and its 11 countries vary in political system, size, geography, and level of economic development.
Is the US really losing to China in Southeast Asia?
Over the past couple of years, a consensus among analysts and scholars has emerged: except in the Philippines, the United States is losing ground to China in Southeast Asia. Whether it’s a lack of positive US economic engagement with the region, patchy diplomatic attention, or a loss of support in Muslim-majority countries owing to US support for Israel, the story has not been a good one.
Trump tariffs tilt Southeast Asia towards China
Until the 2 April 2025 reciprocal tariffs announcement, Southeast Asian countries appeared more sanguine than others about Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. The 2025 ISEAS State of Southeast Asia survey showed the region had warmed to Trump before ‘Liberation Day’, with more participants preferring the United States over China than in 2024 if forced to choose. Trump’s announcement of steep tariffs has surely shaken the region from this complacency.
Commentary: Who is Thailand’s new prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul?
SYDNEY: The rapid demise of two Thai prime ministers in as many years has paved the way for a third: Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the third largest party in the Thai parliament, Bhumjaithai. Who is Anutin, and what does his appointment say about Thailand’s future political stability? Anutin took over the Bhumjaithai Party from his father in 2014, having already followed his father to become a tycoon in the construction industry.
Who is Thailand’s new Prime Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul?
The rapid demise of two Thai prime ministers in as many years has paved the way for a third: Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the third largest party in the Thai parliament, Bhumjai Thai. Who is Anutin, and what does his appointment say about Thailand’s future political stability? Anutin took over the Bhumjai Thai Party from his father in 2014, having already followed his father to become a tycoon in the construction industry.
Hard New World
Hugh White’s proposition that Australia is inevitably torn between its US alliance and the opportunity of true engagement with Asia has much in common with the claim that Australia has turned its back on Paul Keating’s idea of “security in Asia.” The problem with both arguments is that their proponents appear unwilling to look with fresh eyes at the state of Australia’s current relationships in Asia.
Does Australia’s US alliance doom our Asian relationships to fail?
Hugh White’s most recent contribution to Australia’s strategic debate, “Hard New World: Our Post-American Future”, published in Quarterly Essay, ventilates a series of profound questions about the challenging world facing Australia.
Conversations: Indonesian foreign policy under President Prabowo
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has travelled relentlessly since his inauguration in October 2024. Yet questions remain about the direction of Indonesian foreign policy under his leadership. How will Indonesia manage its relationships with China, the United States and Russia? And what role will it play within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)?
Southeast Asia’s evolving defence partnerships
Southeast Asian countries have diversified their defence partnerships amid intensifying strategic competition and regional security challenges. While the United States and China remain key security actors, countries in the region are engaging with a broader array of external partners to enhance their autonomy and military capabilities. Australia, Japan, India, and South Korea are all important defence partners for the region, offering capacity-building, training, and technology cooperation.
Albanese’s Beijing visit sends mixed signals across Southeast Asia
In the last couple of weeks, my colleagues and I have hosted a flurry of delegations from officials and experts from Southeast Asia. Since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s July visit to China, Australia’s relationship with China has been a topic of high interest. When Australia’s relations with China were at a low ebb, many in the region saw this as contributing unhelpfully to tension, mistrust and polarisation.
Development Futures: The 2025 Southeast Asia Aid Map and global aid cuts
As global donors retreat from development finance, Southeast Asia stands to lose billions of dollars in critical support. In this episode, we launch the Lowy Institute’s 2025 Southeast Asia Aid Map and unpack what the wave of US, UK and European aid cuts mean for the region.
Australia’s ambitious conflict prevention agenda in Asia
Even in today’s geopolitically contested environment, few could disagree with the goal advocated by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong: conflict prevention.
Does Australia see China as a threat?
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was asked during a National Press Club appearance this month whether China was a security threat to Australia. Here’s what he had to say: “I think that our engagement with the region and the world needs to be diplomatic, needs to be mature and needs to avoid the, you know, attempts to simplify what are a complex set of relationships.” When pressed, he added: “We have strategic competition in the region.
A border skirmish and leaked phone call sees the Thailand-Cambodia dispute surge back to life
As wars in the Middle East and Europe intensify and take on new dimensions, and as a ceasefire holds between India and Pakistan, an old struggle on the Thai-Cambodia land border risks adding to the list of inter-state conflicts. Like many conflicts, the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute, over the area of land that surrounds the sprawling Angkor-era Preah Vihear temple complex, has its roots in contested colonial era mapping.
Facts gone missing in Australia’s debate about Indonesia-Russia basing deal
Since disturbing reports about a Russian bid to base aircraft in Indonesia broke last week, both sides of Australian politics have continued to exploit the issue to their advantage as the election campaign rolls on. For the opposition Coalition, the incident demonstrated the Labor government’s lack of transparency and weak national security credentials; for Labor, the hyping of the incident underscored the Coalition’s recklessness and inexperience in managing foreign relations.
What difference will the election outcome make to Australia ties with Southeast Asia?
The Albanese government has hung its hat on improving ties with Australia’s two near regions, the Pacific and Southeast Asia. And while there is clearly a hierarchy of effort, with the Pacific rightly allocated greater resources, Southeast Asia has been a focus for Foreign Minister Penny Wong. She has travelled extensively to Southeast Asian countries (except Myanmar) and driven a major new initiative – the Southeast Asia Economic Strategy – aimed at boosting Australian investment in the region.
Silencing the Voice of America
The Trump administration cares little for soft power. The abrupt shuttering of the Voice of America and other US-funded media outlets including Radio Free Asia attest to this. An executive order, issued last Friday, directed the US Agency for Global Media to reduce its operations to the minimum required by law. A subsequent White House press release listed a series of complaints accusing the Voice of America of publishing “radical propaganda”.
Time to retire the term “Plan B”
Since his return to office less than two months ago, President Donald Trump has trashed America’s reputation among liberal democratic allies, including Australia. He has sided with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, voted with the world’s most repressive autocracies in the United Nations General Assembly, and thrown into question basic tenets of the post-Second World War order. So, it’s not surprising that we are now hearing calls for Australia to develop a “Plan B”.
Thai foreign policy in the twilight zone
Over three decades of domestic political turbulence, Thailand has often been dismissed as inward-looking and for failing to live up to its potential leadership role within Southeast Asia. The country’s diplomatic influence has not been commensurate with its size or stature as one of ASEAN’s founding members. But even measured against this low standard, Bangkok’s diplomacy in 2024 appears to be at a new nadir. The weakness of Thailand’s current prime minister can hardly be overstated.
The cost of Albanese skipping Prabowo’s inauguration
Last month, a mini fracas broke out about the symbolism of Anthony Albanese citing a royal visit as cause for missing the Indonesian presidential inauguration. As experts like Greg Fealy have noted, the impact on the bilateral relationship with Indonesia is likely to be limited. After all, ties are already in good shape, with a landmark defence cooperation deal and a trade agreement both inked in the last five years. Perhaps the relationship is not, after all, “condemned to crisis”.
Marking Time: The ASEAN Summit in Laos
In a world of tumult, there is something quietly reassuring about the predictable summitry of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Next week, one of Southeast Asia’s smallest countries, Laos, will play host to its neighbours for the ASEAN Summit. It will also welcome the region’s great powers, including the United States, China and Japan, for the adjoining annual East Asia Summit. The defining backdrop for this year’s summitry is incomplete political transitions in Washington and Jakarta.
Commentary: New slate of leaders will grapple with contentious issues at Laos ASEAN summit
SYDNEY: Over the next few days, one of Southeast Asia’s smallest countries, Laos, will play host to its neighbours for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit. It will also welcome the region’s great powers, including the United States, China and Japan, for the adjoining annual East Asia Summit. The defining backdrop for this year’s summitry is incomplete political transitions in Washington and Jakarta.
Marking time: The ASEAN summit in Laos Original
This week, one of Southeast Asia's smallest countries, Laos, will play host to its neighbours for the ASEAN Summit. It will also welcome the region’s great powers, including the United States, China and Japan, for the adjoining annual East Asia Summit. The defining backdrop for this year’s summitry is incomplete political transitions in Washington and Jakarta. Next week’s ASEAN show will come to Laos and then roll on again. Concrete progress on pressing issues will be sorely lacking.
Kamala Harris and the Indo-Pacific: Correcting the attention deficit
This article also appears in a collection of essays, Harris v Trump, written by Lowy Institute experts on the implications for Australia of the US presidential election. The Biden administration sees its Asia policy as an overlooked success story — attracting much less attention than Ukraine or the Middle East, but noteworthy for the administration’s shoring up of alliances and partnerships.
Power in Asia: Outliers and curiosities
Each year, the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index ranks the relative power of states in Asia across eight metrics. The key findings for 2024 are available on the Asia Power Index interactive. However, like every year, there are a handful of results that seem counterintuitive. In this article, we unpack the top five for 2024. Singapore is more powerful than Indonesia Singapore ranks eighth out of 27 countries for comprehensive power in Asia, besting ninth-ranked Indonesia by one place.
Asia Has No Hegemon
Debates about the balance of power in Asia typically rely on one of three views. Some analysts believe, fatalistically, that China has become an unassailably dominant force in the region. Others place continued faith in U.S. primacy and see China as weak, vulnerable, and ultimately containable. Still others, including U.S. allies such as Australia and Japan, tout the emergence of a multipolar Indo-Pacific that could arrest China’s ambitions for regional hegemony.
China’s rise in Southeast Asia is bringing in a golden age for Australia
Beijing’s assiduous diplomacy and the promise of future economic rewards are . At the same time, Washington’s approaches, including economic protectionism, support for Israel over its war on Hamas, and continued diplomatic inattention, are pushing countries away. As worrying as this picture is to Canberra, it is paradoxically creating a new golden age in Australia’s ties with the region.
China’s rise in Southeast Asia is bringing in a golden age for Australia
Few close observers of Southeast Asia would dispute the claim that China’s influence across the region is growing. Beijing’s assiduous diplomacy and the promise of future economic rewards are . At the same time, Washington’s approaches, including economic protectionism, support for Israel over its war on Hamas, and continued diplomatic inattention, are pushing countries away.
International Education
By Susannah Patton, Program Director, Lowy Institute Has Australia ever before squandered global soft power as quickly and wantonly as it has in its recent management of international education? On the face of it, international education should be a winner for Australia’s global engagement, especially with countries in our region.
Thailand loses a prime minister
On Wednesday, Thailand’s powerful constitutional court dismissed the country’s prime minister. Srettha Thavisin was found to have appointed a cabinet minister with a criminal conviction in violation of the Thai constitution. Rather than leaving it to Thai voters at the next election to pass judgement on Srettha’s decision – having bubbled away in local politics for some months – the court found that he had violated the constitutional ethics code and removed him from office.
Has Biden “checkmated” China?
In recent public remarks, US President Joe Biden has talked up his foreign policy credentials. “I’m able to keep the Pacific Basin in a position where we’re at least checkmating China now,” Biden boasted in an television interview. He spoke of personally holding NATO together, and following the alliance summit in Washington last week, Biden claimed to have “strengthened the Asia and the Pacific area more than anyone else has.” On US alliances in Asia, Biden’s claim is undoubtedly true.
From global to regional: Australia’s focus narrows
Writing in The Interpreter last week, Andrew Carr suggested that the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade should reorganise itself around the principle of solutions to problems, rather than using the traditional “national interests” approach. This, argued Carr, would enable DFAT to prioritise and avoid being “pulled in too many directions, for too long, with too few resources”.
Unpacking China’s propaganda narratives against the Philippines
The Second Thomas Shoal, within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, is the most dangerous flashpoint in the South China Sea. China has ratcheted up pressure at sea to the point that the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces argues China’s behaviour should no longer be referred to as “grey zone”, but “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive”. Of these four attributes, China’s deceptive conduct has received little attention outside the Philippines.
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