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The elevated inflation in the United States since 2021 has been attributed in large part to supply shocks such as logistic bottlenecks, tariffs, and rising energy prices (Shapiro 2022). Supply shocks generate a trade-off for monetary policymakers as economic activity and inflation move in opposite directions.
Gasoline prices are among the most salient and volatile expenses consumers face. When gas prices rise sharply, people may interpret the increase not just as a price change in this category but as a signal about inflation more generally. Household expectations about future gas prices may therefore shape people’s perceptions of overall inflation (Coibion and Gorodnichenko 2015).
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