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Articles by Takeshi Doi
Seasonal predictability of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific by a large-ensemble climate model - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Abstract We assessed the seasonal prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific by the large-ensemble SINTEX-F dynamical system. Although the prediction skills were limited, the correlation skill for the June–August prediction issued in early May was statistically significant around Okinawa and Taiwan. Particularly, the high TC activity in summer 2018 was well predicted.
Revisiting the role of atmospheric initial signals in predicting ENSO
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The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Abstract The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly affects the climate of the Indo-Pacific. Observations suggest a shift towards stronger and earlier positive IOD (pIOD) events alongside an increased amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but uncertainty remains, impeding assessments of ongoing changes. In this Review, we synthesize the available knowledge of projected changes in the IOD during the twenty-first century under anthropogenic warming.
Seasonal predictability of the extreme Pakistani rainfall of 2022 possible contributions from the northern coastal Arabian Sea temperature - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Abstract During the summer of 2022, Pakistan and northwestern India were hit by an unprecedented spell of heavy rainfall. Despite capturing major tropical climate anomalies, almost all seasonal prediction systems failed to predict the extreme event, far surpassing the 2010 event.
Predicting extreme floods and droughts in East Africa using a deep learning approach - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Abstract The East African region is highly susceptible to severe floods and persistent droughts, which greatly impact the livelihood of millions of people. Early warnings, at least a few seasons in advance, would help implement mitigation measures. However, most prediction systems using dynamical models perform poorly at long lead times.
Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea
Abstract Potential impact of sea-ice initialization on the interannual climate predictability over the Weddell Sea is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. Climate variability in the Weddell Sea is generally believed to have association with remote forcing such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annual Mode.
Decadal climate predictability in the southern Indian Ocean captured by SINTEX-F using a simple SST-nudging scheme
Decadal variability in the southern Indian Ocean is well pronounced east of Madagascar, off the west coast of Australia, and in the Agulhas Retroflection region. This can be seen in the observed standard deviation of 8-yr low-pass filtered SST anomalies (Fig. 1a).
Improved seasonal prediction using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model
The SINTEX-F1 Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) was developed within the EU-Japan collaborative framework to study global climate variability and its predictability by use of the Earth Simulator. The seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX-F1 has demonstrated its outstanding performance of predicting El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole since 2005. However, there is much room for improvement in predicting extratropical climate variations.
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