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Articles by Theodore Pelagidis
Credit risk modelling within the euro area in the COVID‐19 period: Evidence from an ICAS framework
CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Greece. No conflict of interest exists in the submission of this manuscript, and this manuscript is approved by all authors for publication. REFERENCES , , & (2017). Stock market listing and the use of trade credit: Evidence from public and private firms. Journal of Corporate Finance, 46, 391–410. , , , & (2018).
Labor Taxation: Insights From The World Economic Forum Survey
Arpaia, A.; Pérez, E.; and Pichelmann, K. (2009) “Understanding Labour Income Share Dynamics in Europe.” Economic Papers 379, European Commission. Bassanini, A., and Duval, R. (2006) “Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions.” OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 35 and OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 486.
Panamax markets behaviour: explaining volatility and expectations
Alexandridis G, Sahoo S, Visvikis I (2017) Economic information transmissions and liquidity between shipping markets: new evidence from freight derivatives. Transp Res Part E 98:82–104 Alizadeh HA (2013) Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market. Transp Res Part E 49:250–265 Angelopoulos J, Sahoo S, Visvikis I (2020) Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: new evidence from a dynamic factor model. Transp Res Part e: Logist Transp Rev.
How to Damage an Already Fragile Economy
References: M. Mitsopoulos and T. Pelagidis, Understanding the Crisis in Greece. From Boom to Bust, London, Palgrave/MacMillan, 2011 and 2012 2nd edition. Marcus Walker & Marianna Kakaounaki, “How Greece and Germany brought Europe’s Long-Simmering Crisis Back to a Boil”, The Wall Street Journal, 21.1.2015 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-greece-and-germany-brought-europes-long-simmering-crisis-back-to-a-boil-1421890324).
Economic Policies in Greece during 1990-1993: An Assessment
AGI (Association of Greek Industrialists). 1992. Σύνδεσμος Ελληνικών Βιομηχάνων, Δελτίο ΣΕΒ, August–September. Alogoskoufis, George. 1990. “Competitiveness, Wage Adjustment and Macroeconomic Policy in Greece.” KEPE Discussion Paper. Athens: KEPE (Κέντρο Οικονομικού Προγραμματισμού και Ερευνών). Alogoskoufis, George. 1991. Γιώργος Αλογοσκούφης, «Η αξιοπιστία της Οικονομικής Πολιτικής». Η Καθημερινή, 31 March. Alogoskoufis, George. 1993.
La flexibilité du travail dans le secteur du textile et de l' habillement en Grèce du Nord
AMIN, A. 1989. "Flexible Specialisation and Small Firms in Italy: Myths and Realities", Antipode, vol.21, no1. ANGEL, D. 1991. "High Technology Agglomeration and the Labour Market: The Case of Silicon Valley". Environment and Planning A., vol.23,1501-1516. AOKI, M. 1990. "A New Paradigm of Work Organisation and Co-ordination? Lessons from Japanese Experience". The Golden Age of Capitalism. Re-interpreting the Post-war Experience. S.A. Marglin et J.B. Schor, dir. Oxford: Clarendon Press. ATKINSON, J. 1985.
EMU and the New "Stabilization State": Demand Disturbances and Asymmetric Responses
References: Abowd J., F. Kramarz, T. Lemieux, and D. Margolis (1997) "Minimum Wages and Youth Unemployment in France and the United States", NBER Working Paper 6111. Alesina A., E. Spolaore, and R. Wacziarg (1997) “Economic Integration and Political Disintegration”, NBER Working Paper 6163. Arestis P., K. McCauley, and M. Sawyer (2001) "The Future of the Euro", Public Policy Brief, 63, Levy Institute. Artis M.J. and M.
On Economic Policies of Unemployment in Europe
References: BALDWIN, R. and G. CAIN. 1997. "Shifts in US Relative Wages: The Role of Trade, Technology and Factor Endowments". CEPR Discussion Paper Series, No.1596. BEAN, C. 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey." Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.32, No.2, 573-619. ECONOMIST. 1998. Reader. 27-3-99/4-4-99. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. 1996. Report of the Committee for Competitiveness. Brussels: EU. EUROPEAN ECONOMY. 1995. Annual Economic Report for 1995. No59, Brussels: EU. EUROPEAN ECONOMY. 1996a. Supplement A.
Cyprus Accession to the Eurozone and the Reunification of the Island's Economy
References: Theophanous A. and Tirkides Y. (Eds), Accession to the Eurozone and the Reunification of the Cyprus Economy, Inercollege Press, Nicosia 2006. Christodoulou D., Inside the Cyprus Miracle, Modern Greek Studies, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, 1992. Theophanous A., "The Anatomy of the Economic 'Miracle' 1974-1994" (in Greek), in Peristianis N. and Tsangaras G. (Eds) Anatomy of Metamorphosis (in Greek), Intercollege Press, Nicosia 1995, pp. 13-33.
An Anatomy of the Economy of the 'Turkish Republic of Nothern Cyprus' ("TRNC")
Theophanous, Andreas and Tirkides, Yiannis and Pelagidis, Theodore (2008): An Anatomy of the Economy of the 'Turkish Republic of Nothern Cyprus' ("TRNC"). Published in: Journal of Modern Hellenism , Vol. 25-26, (2008) PDF MPRA_paper_107005.pdf Download (9MB) | Preview Abstract Despite growth in recent years, the economy of the “TRNC” remains fragile and the sustainability of the convergence process without due reform and restructuring is questionable.
The South-East Energy Corridor Connecting Greece and Cyprus; How Feasible, how Viable?
References: Baconi, T. (2017) “Pipelines and Pipedreams; How the EU can Support a Regional Gas Hub in the Eastern Mediterranean”, European Council on Foreign Relations. Barden. J. (2014). Natural Gas Pipelines under Construction Will Move Gas from Azerbaijan to Southern Europe, available at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=23332 (accessed 14 October 2015). Bellos, E. (2016).
Οικονομική Ανάλυση της Θρησκείας Η Ελληνική περίπτωση και η Σύγκριση με την Ευρώπη
References: 1. Βλ. G. Becker (1976), The Economic Approach to Human Behavior, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 2. Βλ. http://www.gmu.edu/centers/publicchoice/ για την προσέγγιση της ‘δημόσιας επιλογής’. Για την προσέγγιση των ‘θεσμικών οικονομικών’ βλ. D. North (2004), Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge University Press, 13th International Edition. 3. Όλα τα στοιχεία από L.
Greece’s recovery bet
The victory of liberal-conservatives in the snap elections on July 7 with 39.6 percent of the votes, sealed the completion of Greece’s transformative journey from radical populism back to a systemic normality. The economic climate has significantly improved—although at odds with the one prevailing in Europe (Figure 1a and 1b)—however, it remains to be seen whether the favorable expectations will endure and translate to a robust economic recovery in the coming months. Figure 1a. Figure 1b.
Greek elections: The first defeat of populism in Europe?
The liberal leader of the center-right New Democracy party, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, was sworn in as Greece’s prime minister on July 8, after last Sunday’s snap elections in which he won 39.8 percent of the votes, while the ruling populist Syriza party secured a 31.5 percent share. The electoral system, which confers a 50-seat bonus to the party earning the most votes, ensures Mitsotakis has a clear majority of 158 parliament members in the 300-seat Hellenic parliament.
China’s backdoor to Europe
At a critical EU-China summit on April 9 in Brussels, European Union (EU) members and China agreed on a road map for specific bilateral trade arrangements aimed at drastically reducing unfair trade practices and subsidies. A possible final trade-related agreement involving the World Trade Organization (WTO) will follow soon. Adjudicated by the WTO, that agreement may satisfy Europeans demanding freer access to China’s protected market for exports and investments.
Greek economy: From bailout program exit to recovery?
The recent upgrade of Greece’s long-term foreign credit rating by Moody’s from B3 to B1 is expected to encourage investor uptake of a 10-year, 2.5-billion-euro Greek government bond launching this week. At odds with this cautiously encouraging development was the European Commission’s (EC) enhanced surveillance report issued on February 27. Layered over this are persistent political economy challenges that continue to stymie financial sector and other structural reforms.
Greece: A postponed tranche, relief for pensioners, and likely budget endorsement
The tangled web of Greek finances is a long-running saga whose current chapter is complicated. However, glimmers of relief are beginning to appear. Bright spots include the likely endorsement of the Greek budget by the Eurogroup on December 3. Yet, all is not sanguine and EU officials should avoid wearing rose colored glasses when it comes to Greece’s medium-term growth prospects.
Greece is in ‘Hotel California’: Checked out but it can never leave
After eight years of painful bailout programs, this week Greece is leaving behind, at least technically, the era of bailout programs dictated by creditors. However, despite optimistic views expressed both by the Greek government—Prime Minister Alex Tsipras included—and some Eurozone officials, many believe that the country has, to paraphrase the Eagles’ “Hotel California” song, checked out but it can never leave.
Is the latest Greek debt deal sustainable or another kick of the can?
The Eurogroup recently granted Greece relief through an extension of loans that were part of the second program of the European Financial Stability Facility and extended Greece’s most pressing loan maturities by 10 years (see Figure 1). The country was also given a 15 billion euro tranche from the 86 billion euro third program to be used as a “cash buffer” once the third Greek aid program is successfully concluded. This is intended to calm markets so Greece can borrow at much lower rates.
Greece’s Sisyphean drama: From Grexit to exit to the markets?
On Friday, April 20, senior officials representing the International Monetary Funds, the European Stability Mechanism, and the European Central Bank as well as key eurozone finance ministers met to discuss Greek debt-lightening as well as to decide what to do with post-bailout Greece.
The inconvenient truths about Greece
As Greece seemingly returns to normal, everybody in Athens, Washington, and Brussels hopes to put the whole affair in the rear view mirror, possibly because they know that, at the height of the crisis, neither Greece nor Europe dealt with their respective weaknesses. But how can this be, when so much has been done—so many pieces of legislation adopted in Europe to deal with the crisis, so many mechanisms created, and so many measures imposed on the mostly reluctant Greeks?
Lessons learned from Congress’s recent budget deal
In the early hours of last Friday, both the House and Senate approved a major budget deal that opens the door for spending increases on both the defense and non-defense sides of the ledger, raises the debt limit through March 2019, and makes a range of other policy changes.
Davos 2018: Between optimism and the risks of irrational complacency
Shakers and movers just wrapped up their panels and power networking in Davos, focusing on protectionism, nationalistic populism, income inequality, and geopolitical instability, often willfully ignoring the Pandora’s box of global trade, a phenomenon governments can do little to reverse.
To swap or not to swap? Greece issues 5 new bonds
On November 28, Greece finally swapped its so-called private sector involvement (PSI) bonds, which had a face value of 29.6 billion euros (but only 20 billion euros of current secondary market value), with five new bonds. The maturities for these new bonds are spread over 2023-2042 and have variable coupons, or yields, ranging from 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent. Reuters cited a government official as saying that, as of November 29, the take up reached 86 percent of bondholders.
Greece’s non-performing loans: A source of instability, a prime obstacle to a strong recovery
As Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met in D.C. this week with President Donald Trump, the specter of non-performing loans continued to hang over the Greek economy. The Europeans finally agreed a couple of weeks ago with the International Monetary Fund to begin stress testing the country’s four systemic banks, Alpha Bank, Eurobank, National Bank of Greece, and Piraeus Bank, which constitute 98 percent of the Greek financial system. This reflects two things.
Is the refugee crisis an opportunity for an aging Europe?
Europe is facing the biggest inflow of migrants in decades. The number of refugees from conflict zones in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere arriving at southern European shores is rising by the day. The resulting surge of asylum claims in the European Union (EU) have exposed divisions between EU member states over how to react.
Why cooperating on the Syrian refugee challenge is in everyone’s interest
The suicide attack that hit Istanbul’s Sultanahmet Square on Tuesday morning killed at least 10 people and injured 15 others. The Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu connected the blast to a militant of Syrian origin, who then became identified as an affiliate of the Islamic State (or ISIS). The attacks targeted mostly tourists (Norwegians, Peruvians, and Germans in this case).
How the EU and Turkey can work together on refugees
After many weeks of negotiations, the European Union and Turkey finally adopted a plan to stem the flow of Syrian and other refugees and irregular migrants to Europe. At a summit in Brussels on November 29, the EU pledged to give Turkey 3 billion euros to assist refugees in Turkey, grant visa-free travel for Turkish nationals starting in October 2016, and begin a “re-energized” accession process into the EU.
Over taxation at the heart of Greece’s non-recovery economy
The question mark that Michael Mitsopoulos and I put in the title of our book Greece. From Exit to Recovery? back in 2014 still seems to be, unfortunately timely. According to the latest data from the Greek Statistical Authorities, the country’s GDP grew 0.5 percent quarter on quarter (QOQ) and 0.8 percent year over year (YOY) during the second financial quarter this year, compared to 0.5 percent QOQ and 0.4 percent YOY in first quarter.
Were Bosnia’s ‘good ol’ days’ really that good?
Many people in Bosnia who are old enough to remember will tell you that things were better in the past. Indeed, if you ask people in much of former Yugoslavia, many will agree. The view that the past was somehow better is not so unusual in many parts of the world. If you ask my grandmother—of Welsh and Irish stock, and going strong in her mid-90s—she will sometimes tell you the same. And if you ask my mother—of English and Yiddish stock, and in her mid-60s—she will also tell you the same.
A model of constitutional design and corruption
Benno, T., Schneider, F., & Macinytre, A. (2011). Shadow economy, voice and accountability and corruption. In Friedrich Schneider (Ed.), Handbook on the shadow economy. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
To exit (to borrow from the markets) or not to exit: Greece’s new dilemma
Athens desperately needs to sell a 3 billion euro, five-year Greek government bond with a yield of around 4.5-4.7 percent as it strives to convince the markets—as well as domestic voters—that the economy is about to recover after eight years of depression and austerity. So, it is willing to pay much more than the 0.89-1.2 percent that the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is currently charging as part of Greece’s bailout program.
Helmut Kohl: A great and flawed statesman | Brookings Institution
Helmut Kohl, Germany’s chancellor from 1982 to 1998, will be doubly remembered by history as one of its greatest leaders and also one of its most flawed. For a generation of Germans, his towering and darkly ponderous frame seemed to literally embody his center-right Christian Democratic party (CDU) and later the country itself—in both the best and the worst ways. His era ended long before his passing last week at the age of 87.
Greece: Eurozone’s Puerto Rico | Brookings Institution
No, not even in May. “Deal in May and go away” doesn’t seem to work for Greece and its creditors. Both parties are now supposed to reach an agreement regarding the second evaluation of the third consecutive bailout program on June 15 when European Union finance ministers of the Eurozone will be meeting.
Europe and the world | Brookings Institution
Javier Solana, a distinguished fellow at Brookings, discusses why Europe and European institutions such as the EU and NATO are important not only in terms of European integration, but for the world. Solana has held numerous leadership posts, including: member of the Spanish parliament; Spanish foreign affairs minister; secretary-general of NATO; European Union high representative for common foreign and security policy; and secretary general of the Council of the European Union.
Macron’s foreign policy: Claiming the tradition | Brookings Institution
Emmanuel Macron, according to the some of the more hyperbolic press, is all that stands between us and the end of Western civilization. In the wake of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s election, a populist president in France would mean three strikes and the liberal world order is out. It is apocalyptic thinking, but it captures the current mood and places a greater than usual weight on an untested presidential candidate.
Russia is not strong. And Putin is even weaker. | Brookings Institution
Sergey Aleksashenko wants everyone to stop calling Russia weak. He contends that Russia is actually stronger than many people believe —to include U.S. President Barack Obama and British military historian Lawrence Freedman among other prominent voices. But Russia is weak and Russian President Vladimir Putin is even weaker. Aleksashenko misunderstands Russian strength because he makes three critical errors. First, he assumes that strength and weakness are static and so fails to look at trends.
Inderscience Publishers
Title: Efficiency in the tax-auditing administration in GreeceAuthor: Aggeliki Saranti; Theodore Pelagidis; Michael MitsopoulosAddresses: Ministry of Finance, 21 Anaxagora St., Gerakas 153-44, Athens, Greece Department of Maritime Studies, School of Maritime and Industrial Studies, University of Piraeus, 21 Lambraki Ave., GR-Piraeus, Greece SEV Hellenic Federation of Enterprises, Research and Analysis Unit Hellenic Federation of Enterprises, 1, Paschalias St., Psychico 154-52, Attica,...
Two versions of France, now racing toward the finish line | Brookings Institution
Just like the “two Americas” that many U.S. analysts saw during the 2016 presidential campaign, the Macron-Le Pen match that will take place on May 7 in the French presidential election runoff will have all the ingredients of a clash between “two Frances.” The front-runner Emmanuel Macron, who won 23.8 percent of the votes in yesterday’s first round, appeals to younger, pro-European, well-educated professionals.
François Hollande’s legacy: Strong abroad, weak at home | Brookings Institution
Just three days before the first round of France’s presidential election, a gunman opened fire at one of Paris’ most famous landmarks, the Champs Elysées avenue, killing one policeman and wounding two others. Outgoing President François Hollande quickly called yet another meeting of the French defense council.
What should “more Europe” mean? A vital question for the union | Brookings Institution
French independent presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, a liberal centrist, is the one and only brave European politician today, speaking openly about the need for “more Europe,” albeit not a federalist union. Such a reference stands out in our international environment contaminated by populism, authoritarianism and demagogy.
Greece and Europe: Is Europe holding up its end of the bargain? | Brookings Institution
This week the Greek parliament agreed to European demands for tough new austerity measures and structural reforms, defusing (for the moment, at least) the country’s sovereign debt crisis. Now is a good time to ask: Is Europe holding up its end of the bargain? Specifically, is the euro zone’s leadership delivering the broad-based economic recovery that is needed to give stressed countries like Greece a reasonable chance to meet their growth, employment, and fiscal objectives?
What the new Turkey-EU cooperation really means for Syrian refugees
In the last couple of months, more than half a million Syrian refugees and irregular migrants have poured into the European Union (EU). The bulk of them came from or through Turkey via the Aegean Sea, relying on criminal networks set up by human smugglers. The sheer number of arrivals deeply strained the EU’s capacity to cope with the crisis. This influx was a wake-up call for EU member states, which now openly recognize the role Turkey can play in helping them cope with the crisis.
Election fever and the downward spiral between Turkey and Europe: Could reviving the migration deal be a way out? | Brookings Institution
EU-Turkey relations have gotten ugly. In the last few weeks, both The Netherlands and Germany prevented Turkish politicians from addressing the Turkish diaspora in an attempt to garner support for an April referendum on changes to Turkey’s constitution. Both European countries defended their moves, hoping to stave off the growing influence of right-wing, xenophobic, populist leaders. The bans and the use of force against protestors—including police dogs in one instance—only heightened tensions.
Meet Martin Schulz, the Europhile populist shaking up Germany’s elections | Brookings Institution
They say we Germans are predictable and boring. Yet, seven months ahead of the September 24 national elections, we are rubbing our eyes as a bearded and bespectacled former bookseller without a high-school diploma appears to have a serious chance at wresting Germany’s top political office from Chancellor Angela Merkel—hailed by some as the leader of the free world and the last bastion of the liberal international order.
Creditors back in La La Land (Greece) | Brookings Institution
The Greek crisis has become such a long and complicated case that sometimes writing about it makes Greece seem like an imaginary place. With technical staff from the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission (EC), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the European Central Bank (ECB) set to return to Athens this week after a Eurogroup conclave agreed to resume talks with the Greek government, they amount to an awkward quartet that faces tough odds.
High primary fiscal surpluses and risks to Greece’s recovery | Brookings Institution
The agreement reached back in the summer of 2015 between the populist Syriza government and creditors included an obligation that binds the Greek government until at least 2025 to achieve a primary fiscal surplus of 3.5 percent of GDP. Securing such a target will entail higher taxes and big cuts in government expenditures—in other words, a restrictive, pro-cyclical fiscal policy that will put sand in the wheels of economic recovery.
Europe needs to take heed and reform in wake of Italy, Austria outcomes | Brookings Institution
The “no vote” victory rejecting Italy’s constitutional referendum is widely interpreted as a clear win for anti-globalization populist forces in Europe. Even the defeat of Austria’s anti-immigrant populist Norbert Hofer last Sunday in the presidential elections, with just a 53-47 percentage, is seen in the same vein, as the extreme-right candidate’s loss was slim.
IMF: In or out of the Greek program? | Brookings Institution
The difficulties that the Internal Evaluation Office (IEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) encountered in an attempt to detect Fund policy failures in cases such as Greece, as covered in an October 20 New York Times piece by Landon Thomas Jr., “IMF Assessment Hints at Internal Struggles,” raises a number of questions. No, one of the main questions is not about obstacles that the IEO supposedly faced in its effort to evaluate the IMF’s performance, as the Times reporter seems to suggest.
The Greek Growth Project
The emergence of the current crisis, and its handling by successive Greek governments once the crisis led to the loss of the confidence markets had in the Greek government, has led many opinion leaders and academics to express doubts with respect to the wisdom of the decision of Greece to participate in the final stage of the EMU, and correspondingly of the European Union bodies to accept Greece in the final stage of the EMU.
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