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Articles by Thick Willy
Saudi Foreign Minister Repeats Warning To US Over Sept 11 Law
The biggest financial and geopolitical story from mid-April was Saudi Arabia's threat that should the US pass a bipartisan law which would take away immunity from foreign governments in cases arising from a "terrorist attack that kills an American on American soil" and specifically could hold the Saudi kingdom responsible for its role in the Sept 11, 2001 attacks, then the Saudis would retaliate by selling up to $750 billion in American assets.
Consensus Forming: China Heading Back Into Financial Crisis
China’s historic post-2009 debt binge flew largely under the radar - fooling most observers into thinking the global economy was recovering rather than just re-leveraging. Now Beijing is back at it, borrowing over $1 trillion in this year’s first quarter, buying up commodities and creating the illusion of global growth. But this time the scam hasn’t gone unnoticed. Reporters, editors and money managers seem, at last, to be catching on.
Kamikaze-Kuroda & Carl Icahn Crush Facebook-Driven Stock-Feeding Frenzy
There is only one clip for this... It started in Japan...when Kuroda let the world down... And then China stomped on its latest bubble... But then US GDP printed its worst level in 2 years... and stocks took off!! soaring all the way to the edge of Kuorda's Kamikaze moment before Carl Icahn upset everyone... Stops run to Kuroda's cliff and then icah npushed the market over the edge...
This Is The End: Venezuela Runs Out Of Money To Print New Money
Back in February, when we commented on the unprecedented hyperinflation about the be unleashed in the Latin American country whose president just announced that he would expand the "weekend" for public workers to 5 days... ... we joked that it is unclear just where the country will find all the paper banknotes it needs for all its new physical currency.
George Orwell's Ghost Is Laughing - Obama's "No Boots On The Ground" Doublespeak
What’s the difference between “boots on the ground” and military personnel wearing boots who are engaged in combat – and perhaps dying – on the ground? If you can answer that question convincingly, perhaps you’d like to apply for John Kirby’s job, because he’s not doing it very successfully. Kirby is the State Department spokesman who, in answer to a question from a reporter about the 250 US troops being sent to Syria, denied President Obama ever said there’d be “no boots on the ground” in Syria.
Norway Offers Refugees Cash To Leave The Country
As European countries deal with the current refugee crisis, each is taking a slightly different approach in response to the escalating situation. In Norway, which has been shocked by the unfolding events in neighboring Sweden which has seen a mass revulsion at the ongoing refugee onslaught (and which recently announced it won't accept any more refugees from the EU) the answer appears to be the simplest possible one: offer asylum seekers money to leave.
Sorry Credit Suisse, The Short Covering Isn't Over... But You May Be Right About The New "Pain Trade"
In Credit Suisse's Top 10 market observations from this morning, we found an interesting comment, one which according to the author would mean some semblance of normalcy was returning to the market. This is what CS said: No signs of short covering in Energy/Materials yet the spaces outperform --- this is a change –Pain trade now down?
"This Is Catastrophic" - Thousands Of Gallons Of Radioactive Waste Leak At Washington Nuclear Storage Site
The ongoing radioactive leak problems at the Hanford Site, a nuclear storage tank in Washington State, are nothing new. We first wrote about the ongoing radioative leakage at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, created as part of the Manhattan Project to build the atomic bomb, in 2013.
Shocking Video From Brussels Anti-Islam Protest Of Moment Muslim Woman Is Run Over By Car
Various far-right groups, including the anti-migrant Generation Identitaire movement, demonstrated in Belgium's notorious Molenbeek district, the notorious terrorist breeding ground of the Belgian capital, on Saturday. At the same time, leftist groups held counter-rallies. Though the demonstrations were banned in Brussels following the March attacks, several rallies still took place in Belgian capital.
This (Crashing) Trend Is Not Your Friend
Despite Yellen's best efforts today to basically dismiss any and all data as irrelevant going forward in The Fed's decision-making process, we suspect all eyes (and algos) will be firmly glued to this week's payrolls' data. Will it be another record month for Obama to crow about? Will Mark Zandi do the "told you so dance" to all the trump supporters who seem less exuberant about the recovery?
Ron Paul: A European PATRIOT Act Will Not Keep People Safe
Submitted by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity, It was not long after last week’s horrifying bombings in Brussels that the so-called security experts were out warning that Europeans must give up more of their liberty so government can keep them secure from terrorism. I guess people are not supposed to notice that every terrorist attack represents a major government failure and that rewarding failure with more of the same policies only invites more failure.
The World Has 6 Options To Avoid Japan's Fate, And According To HSBC, They Are All Very Depressing
Last week, when looking back at consensus economist forecasts for Japanese growth as of 1995, we compared what the pundits thought would happen, and what actually did happen: the result was what may have been the worst forecast of all time, leading to a 25% error rate in just five years later. It also unleashed the start of Japan's three lost decades.
"Far-Right Hooligans" Clash With Riot Police At Anti-ISIS Protests In Brussels - Live Feed
Protesters and demonstrators gathered in the Place De la Bourse on Sunday and riot police were forced to step in when far-right activists pushed out Belgians bearing flowers and lighting candles. "We don't believe in candles and flowers.
China Warns Officials: Allow Social Unrest, Lose Your Job
To be sure, there are always going to be financial and geopolitical landmines and every once in awhile we - and by “we” we’re referring to the market, or the country, or humanity, or whatever collective you want to choose - are going to step on one on the way to ushering in a black swan event. But when we look out across markets and across the political landscape it’s difficult to escape the feeling that there are more black swans waiting in the wings - so to speak - than usual.
Japanese Exports To US Plunge Most Since 2011 As Weak Yen Tailwind Evaporates
Japan just posted its largest trade surplus in 5 years (+JPY243bn) as exports dropped 4% YoY (worse than expected) but imports fell 14.2% (better than expected). However, the biggest standout was the ongoing deterioration in Japanese exports to the US which dropped by the most since 2011 as the 'advantages' of a devalued currency appear to have hit their limit. Time for some more devaluation Abe... or Peter Pan(ic). “The tailwind from the weak yen has gone.
Billionaire Koch Brothers Won't Attack Trump In Primaries After Murdoch Calls For Party Unity
It appears it is not just the bookies that see Trump's nomination as a done deal. Even the money behind the establishment is folding now as Reuters reports the mega-donor billionaire Koch brothers have said they have "no plans to get involved in the primary." This follows another mega-donor, Rupert Murdoch's call to "unify the party" as Trump tries to make peace with the "establishment." Before Super Tuesday - as the rhetoric reached 1st grade - Murdoch (cum peacekeeper) tweeted...
When Currency Pegs Break, Global Dominoes Fall
When a currency peg breaks, it unleashes shock waves of uncertainty and repricing that hit the global financial system like a tsunami.
The Fatal Flaw That Has Doomed Our Economy
Submitted by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum), We are searching for an insight. Each time we think we see it… like the shadow of a ghost in an old photo… it gets away from us. It concerns the real nature of our money system… and what’s wrong with it. Here… we bring new readers more fully into the picture… and try to spot the flaw that has doomed our economy.
Who Will Be Left Standing At The End Of The Oil War
This is a financial cold war - nothing more, nothing less. While there are billions of reasons to cut output, and every major producing country is reeling from the loss of revenues, some are weathering the current bust better than others, but the devil is in the details, and the details contain tons of variables. Production cost and breakeven figures that analysts enjoy bandying can trap you in bubble of black-and-white mathematics that is a few brush-strokes shy of a full picture.
Here Are The Top 50 Most Popular Hedge Funds Stocks, And 2015's 50 Best Performing Hedge Funds
This post is divided in two clear parts. The first one shows what according to the latest set of 13F filings, were the most popular stocks within the hedge fund community. According, to Goldman, among the entire universe of publicly traded US stocks, the list of 50 names that have the largest number of hedge fund investors are the following.
Hillary Clinton Is "The Milli-Vanilli Of American Politics"
As Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger exclaimed, this is too good not to share... Cornell West proclaims "Hillary Clinton is the Milli Vanilli of American Politics... she gives lip-service but when it comes to policy, nothing." In case you’re wondering where the reference to Hillary characterizing inner city black youth as “super predators,” read the following: “Why Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Deserve the Black Vote”.
In "Dramatic Escalation," China Sends Fighter Jets To Disputed Islands
On Tuesday, multiple media outlets jumped at the opportunity to report that China has built radar facilities at Cuarteron Reef, Beijing’s southern-most South Pacific sandcastle.
Cameron Unleashes 'Project Fear' - UK Military Leaders Warn Against Brexit Threat To National Security
Just as the government did in the lead up to The Scottish Referendum in 2014, it appears David Cameron is already unleashing resorting to the so-called Project Fear. As The Telegraph reports, following Boris Johnson's lack of acquiescence to Cameron's call for no Brexit, more than a dozen of the country's most senior military leaders will argue that Britain should vote to stay in the European Union because of its importance to national security.
It Was True After All: The Government Is "Breathing Down The Neck Of Banks To Limit Their Energy Exposure"
While MatlinPatterson's Portfolio Manager Michael Lipsky can't wait to enter the distressed junk bond space, thanks to "$74 billion in debt trading at under 25 cents on the dollar, and $205 billion trading at under 70 cents on the dollar", he agrees with BofA's Michael Contopoulos that it is still far too soon to buy.
More "Ivory Tower" Lunacy
Many times when I’m speaking with others and make reference to “Ivory Tower” types I can tell the reference either gets lost or, is not fully appreciated for what it actually means in today’s world of monetary policy, and its direct correlation to business in general. Some take it as just some reference to a certain crowd acting aloof from the realities of such interventionist policies.
"I Guess It's Food Stamps": 400,000 Americans In Jeopardy As Giant Pension Fund Plans 50% Benefit Cuts
After working 33 years, he’s facing a 55% cut to his pension benefits, a blow which he says will “cripple” his family and imperil the livelihood of his two children, one of whom is in the fourth grade and one of whom is just entering high school.
Why Negative Interest Rates Spell Doom For Capitalism
Interest rates in Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, the European Central Bank and now the Bank Japan have now plunged into negative territory, starting a new phase in the era of central banking that is very much uncharted. Time will tell if it leaves the global economy lost at sea. So far, banks are primarily being charged for keeping excess reserves on account at these central banks, a policy designed to jumpstart lending by making it more expensive for banks to sit on reserves.
Tech Exec "Outraged" At Having To See "Homeless Riff-Raff", Warns Of Revolution
In an open letter to San Francisco's mayor Ed Lee, tech entrepreneur Justin Keller said he is "outraged" that wealthy workers have to see people in pain and despair. As The Guardian reports, The latest cultural altercation between San Francisco’s tech workers and the city’s impoverished population finds one such 'entitled' citizen declaring the homeless are "riff raff" whose "pain, struggle and despair" shouldn’t have to be endured by "wealthy" people commuting to work.
The Ban On Cash Is Coming, Soon
This is starting to become very concerning. The momentum to “ban cash”, and in particular high denomination notes like the 500 euro and $100 bills, is seriously picking up steam. On Monday the European Central Bank President emphatically disclosed that he is strongly considering phasing out the 500 euro note. Yesterday, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers published an op-ed in the Washington Post about getting rid of the $100 bill.
Gold Price Pulls Back As “Bad Actor” Fed Signals Slower Rate Hike Cycle
Volatility, loss of confidence and central bank impotence stalk the capital markets. Gold pulls back in an expected retrenchment. Equity markets are still digesting what the world looks like. Absence of a strong Chinese domestic economy. A developing economy losing its easy credit. Oil prices adjusting to demand levels indicative of economic activity and, most tragically, the continuing proxy wars fought in the middle east as warmongers continue to slaughter innocent civilians.
Artist's Impression Of Hillary's Inauguration
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EIA Inventory Report and Oil Market Analysis 2 10 2016 (Video)
Copyright ©2009-2016 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD; All Rights Reserved. Zero Hedge is intended for Mature Audiences. Familiarize yourself with our legal and use policies every time you engage the site: they're updated constantly without notice. Don't poke around on the site without reviewing our Cookie Policy; you expressly agree to our serving cookies unless they're disabled on your browser (instructions included). Happy surfing. Review our notice on Racial Discrimination.
Edge vs Risk Management (Video)
Copyright ©2009-2016 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD; All Rights Reserved. Zero Hedge is intended for Mature Audiences. Familiarize yourself with our legal and use policies every time you engage the site: they're updated constantly without notice. Don't poke around on the site without reviewing our Cookie Policy; you expressly agree to our serving cookies unless they're disabled on your browser (instructions included). Happy surfing. Review our notice on Racial Discrimination.
"We Can Put Refugees On Buses": Leaked Memo Shows Erdogan Blackmailed Europe For Billions
If there’s anything we’ve learned over the past twelve months it’s that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is prepared to employ all manner of nefarious tactics in order to preserve his grip on power in Ankara. Following unfavorable election results last June, Erdogan plunged the country into civil war be restarting a long simmering battle with the PKK and proceeded to crack down on journalists and anyone else critical of the ruling AKP.
The Increasingly Fragile Upper-Middle Class
Many of these apparently high incomes are completely absorbed by high-cost upper middle class expenses. Since the top 10% takes home 50% of all household income, it follows that this top slice has most of the discretionary cash, i.e. net income left after taxes, servicing debt and paying for essentials such as food, utilities and housing.
US, Japan, Canada, Australia and 8 Other Countries Sign Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement
The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) would be horrible for Americans and the people of the world. But most politicians are thoroughly corrupt. Neither the Democratic or Republican parties represent the interests of the American people. Elections have become nothing but scripted beauty contests, with both parties ignoring the desires of their own bases.
Martin Shkreli's Freedom In Jeopardy After E*Trade Account Takes $40 Million Hit
Early last month, we asked a simple question when we learned that Martin Shkreli, pharma “bro” and the “most hated man in America” put up his $45 million E*Trade account to secure $5 million bail after he was arrested for fraud by federal authorities in December. Well as it turns out, we may just find out the answer to our question because as as Reuters reports, the value of Shkreli’s E*Trade account has fallen by some $40 million.
"Fight Me!": "Shocking" Video Shows Migrant Melee In Swedish Refugee Home
Tensions are running high in Sweden, the country with the highest per capita rate of sheltered asylum seekers. Just yesterday we brought you video footage depicting a gang of “football hooligans” who stormed the central train station in Stockholm on the way to assaulting migrants and generally running amok in a show of nationalistic furor. The incident came on the heels of an attack at a migrant house that left 22-year-old Alexandra Mezher dead.
The Happiest Place On Earth?
...if you are an immigrant... As OneNewsNow reports, an attorney representing laid-off Disney workers claims the Fortune 500 company broke federal laws when it replaced them with immigrants. Attorney Sara Blackwell filed a federal lawsuit this week on behalf of two former tech employees of Disney after the corporation hired H-1B visa recipients from overseas.
WTI Plunges To $32 Handle - Erases All "OPEC Production Cut Hope" Gains
While stocks grab the headlines, there is another far more important crisis for investors to focus on.
US Economy: On A Knife's Edge
We should mention right from the outset that recent data releases – weak as most of them were – are still not confirming an imminent recession with certainty. The situation remains a bit fuzzy: we see a lot of weakness in important data, and considering the overall picture – which includes what is happening globally – we can infer that the likelihood of a significant economic downturn this year is extremely high, but it’s not inevitable.
Ugly 5 Year Auction Results In Biggest Tail In Months
While many were surprised when yesterday's 2 Year auction saw absolutely blistering demand, including a near record Indirect take down and a yield stopping deeply through the When Issued, none of that was on display in today's 5 Year auction which concluded moments ago when the Treasury sold $35 billion of Cusip N89 at a yield of 1.496%. The problem: this was 0.9 bps wide of the When Issued and the biggest tail since June 2015.
Oprah Announces Dramatic Weight Loss, Generates $460,000 Per Pound In WTW Stock Profits
Back in October, after it was revealed that Oprah Winfrey had bought a 10% stake (subsequently boosted to 15%) in fad food diet company Weight Watchers, and after the media diva swallowed the margin accounts of thousands of shorts (75% of WTW's float was short at the time), we said that a simple way to profit from Oprah Winfrey gaining weight was to go short WTW stock.
There Are Landmines Everywhere - Just How Narrow Is This Market?
Most stocks are down since the global equity markets peaked on 5/21/2015 (this goes without saying) and most stocks are down a lot. This puts a premium on solid active management and stock picking. But the sheer numbers are striking. Of the 2885 companies in our GKCI All Country World Index, fully 2383 (or 83%) of them are down since the 5/21/2015 high, leaving only 502 (or 17%) of stocks up since that date.
Denmark Passes Law To Seize Valuables, Cash From Refugees
“Welcome to Europe. Now gimmie that watch.” That’s the greeting asylum seekers will get when they enter Denmark from now on thanks to a new law that will allow police to search refugees on arrival and confiscate anything worth more than 10,000 kroner. The idea, apparently, is to help offset the cost of taking the migrants in by robbing them.
$681 Million In Mystery Money Found In Malaysia PM's Bank Account Was "Personal Donation" From Saudis
Over the course of the last six months, we’ve documented the curious case of 1MDB, Malaysia’s government investment fund founded in 2009. It’s a long and exceptionally convoluted story that doesn’t exactly lend itself to a concise summary but suffice to say that the development bank was something of a black box right from the beginning and in 2013, some $680 million allegedly tied to 1MDB ended up in Malaysian PM Najib Razak’s personal bank account just prior to an election.
Central Banks Are Out Of Tricks
Once the power to manage expectations has been lost, the central bank bag of tricks is empty. No one knows precisely how and when the global unraveling will impact their corner of the planet, but we do know one thing with absolute certainty: central banks are out of tricks.
Bank Of Russia Calls "Emergency" Meeting To Address Ruble Rout
Earlier today, we highlighted a dramatic plunge in the Russian ruble which has crashed to record lows against the dollar after staging its steepest two-day decline in nine months. The sharp (and seemingly inexorable) decline in crude prices combined with Western economic sanctions and geopolitical turmoil have weighed on the currency of late and in the midst of a new leg down in oil, investors appear to be panic selling.
Canadian Pacific Warns Of "Tremendous Pressure", "Strong Headwinds" For Economy
One week ago, when we explained why "Things Just Went From Bad To Worse For U.S. Railroads," we said that "the rail industry is about to be slammed with a dramatic repricing, one which is only the start and the longer oil prices remain at these depressed levels, the lower the rents will drop (think Baltic Dry but on land), until soon most rails will lose money on every trip and will follow the shale companies into a race to the bottom, where "they make up for its with volume." Today, none...
How The Banks Are Tightening The Noose On U.S. Oil Firms
Two weeks ago, we reported that even as U.S. lenders were professing to their investors that there is no risks with their energy exposure and that they are comfortably reserved for any potential losses, they were reducing their unfunded (and total) exposure to oil and gas exploration companies due to balance sheet, default and contagion concerns.
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