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Articles by Thomas Eisenbach
Banking System Vulnerability: 2025 Update
As in previous years, we provide in this post an update on the vulnerability of the U.S. banking system based on four analytical models that capture different aspects of this vulnerability. We use data through 2025:Q2 for our analysis, and also discuss how the vulnerability measures have changed since our last update one year ago.
Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time
September 2024, No. 24-10 Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time Download paper We use high-frequency interbank payments data to trace deposit flows in March 2023 and identify twenty-two banks that suffered a run, significantly more than the two that failed but fewer than the number that experienced large negative stock returns. The runs were driven by large (institutional) depositors, rather than many small (retail) depositors.
United executive admits food hasn't always hit the mark
Matteo Crosignani, Thomas Eisenbach, and Fulvia Fringuellotti The bank failures that occurred in March 2023 highlighted how unrealized losses on securities can make banks vulnerable to a sudden loss of funding. This risk, which materialized following the rapid rise in interest rates that began in early 2022, underscores the importance of monitoring the vulnerabilities of the banking system.
Banking System Vulnerability: 2023 Update
Authored by Simon Elmer via Off-Guardian.org, 'Today, it is not the city but rather the camp that is the fundamental biopolitical paradigm of the West.'- Giorgio Agamben, Homo Sacer: Sovereign Power and Bare Life, 1995 In Part 1 of this article, I identified the apparatuses of biopower by which our freedoms and our democracies are threatened in the West today, and which I described as the 'Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse'.
OFR Models One Theory on the Cause of March 2020’s Treasury Market Fragility
Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official positions or policy of the OFR or Treasury. Treasury prices typically increase during times of stress. Yet, in March 2020, when financial markets experienced stress from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Treasury prices dropped precipitously. Extraordinary policy interventions by the Federal Reserve were needed to resolve this fragility.
Banking System Vulnerability: 2022 Update
Matteo Crosignani, Thomas Eisenbach, and Fulvia Fringuellotti To assess the vulnerability of the U.S. financial system, it is important to monitor leverage and funding risks-both individually and in tandem. In this post, we provide an update of four analytical models aimed at capturing different aspects of banking system vulnerability with data through 2022:Q2, assessing how these vulnerabilities have changed since last year.
Stumbling and Mumbling
This is an example of how mistaken beliefs can cancel out. On the one hand, we have the hot hand fallacy (well, cold hand in this case); the idea that unusually bad performance persists*. On the other, there's the gambler's fallacy; the idea that a run of unusually bad outcomes increases the likelihood of a good one. In giving equal weight to both errors, Mr Pearson has come to a reasonable judgment. This is an example of how cognitive biases can cancel out to produce an accurate opinion.
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