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Articles by Timothy Clancy
Bridging the Divide Between Systems Thinking and System Dynamics: Reconciling Qualitative Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) and Quantitative System Dynamics Models on Common Defining Characteristics and a Shared Architectural Order
1 Introduction Imagine two towns on either side of a deep, difficult-to-cross valley. Separated by this space, each town conducts its daily affairs with both curiosity and some suspicion of the other. While some take the time to travel down and across, or around, the valley, others view the other town as unreachable, and thus undesirable to reach. But the valley, once an obstacle, becomes a connection when a bridge crosses the divide.
Applying AI to Strategic Warning
This joint report from SCSP and CETaS explores the potential of AI systems to make assessments about geopolitical events, and the path ahead for applying AI to strategic warning for national security and intelligence. Strategic surprise – an unforeseen event or development often driven by an adversary – can jeopardise human lives and impose substantial security and financial costs.
What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create
Introduction The field of system dynamics needs clear definition. We begin that process here by characterizing the quantitative modeling portion of the field; systems thinking and other qualitative methods are not considered here. A shared understanding of the field's defining characteristics can clarify what system dynamics modeling is and what it is not, helping to strengthen the impact of the field and facilitate its progress.
Systemic innovation for countering violent radicalization: Systems engineering in a policy context
1 INTRODUCTION On May 14th, 2022, a terrorist mass shooting attack in Buffalo, NY, killed ten and injured three. This attack was the latest incident in a string of white nationalist terrorist incidents tied together by the violent ideology of the “great replacement” conspiracy.
Root causes of radicalization: the terror‐contagion hypothesis
Supporting Information Filename Description sdr1749-sup-0001-Supinfo.docxWord 2007 document , 76.6 KB Data S1. Supplementary materials. References , , . 2018. Technological seduction and self-radicalization. Journal of the American Philosophical Association 4(3): 298–322. https://doi.org/10.1017/apa.2018.27. , . 2017. Fishermen or swarm dynamics? Should we understand jihadist online-radicalization as a top-down or bottom-up process? Journal for Deradicalization, Winter 2017 18(13): 178–212. . 2019.
Never the strongest: reconciling the four schools of thought in system dynamics in the debate on quality
Filename Description sdr1740-sup-0001-Supinfo.docxWord 2007 document , 57.2 KB Data S1. Supporting Information. Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
InfoMullet: Adjusting our Mental-Model of COVID-19
TLDRUpFront: A growing fear in the United States is that COVID-19 may kill millions. This fear is based on an incomplete mental-model of how viruses work fed by COVID-19 reporting that highlights facts in isolation from context and triggering our cognitive biases in how we evaluate risk. This InfoMullet provides a mental model for understanding virus contagions, even within uncertainty, to help understand a variety of scenarios in the United States.
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