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Articles by Tom Dyson
BPR Week in Review: How to escape the madness
Earnings season…a Fed meeting…and rumors of a blown up hedge fund. It promises to be another big week on Wall Street. Things are getting creepy. BPR’s paid subscribers should be sure to check out Investment Director Tom Dyson’s note earlier this week on closing out a trade (see below).
Stop loss trigger alert FRO
Thursday, October 15, 2026
Eye of the Storm
A whole flotilla of news bobs around a whirlpool of funny money finance. The Financial Times: Top economies heading for biggest budget deficits since Covid, IMF warns. At its annual meeting, the fund calls for ‘urgent’ action to rebuild public finances Newsweek adds the personal touch: Eight months into the war in Iran, the average American household is nearly $2,000 worse off, according to economist Mark Zandi. This adds a fresh economic pressure as the midterms approach. “Nearly $2,000.
Increasing the weight of debt
Chiswick, West London
Funny Business
Bees in the hive. Source: Getty Images Expecting voters to exonerate the party in power through a considered examination of the origins of the credit cycle is an overly optimistic view of human nature. —Daniel Oliver Last night, after supper, we saw a dim glow against the garden wall, about as bright as a dozen fireflies. We went out to investigate. And as we approached, we gradually made out a human-like shape...but of the science fiction genre.
The Debt Crisis is now Beginning
Please note, we’re aware some Gmail users are not receiving the weekly market and research notes from Tom Dyson and Dan Denning. Substack is aware of the issue and working with Google to resolve it. It in the meantime, we’ll also send the weekly updates to our back-up email list to ensure you receive them. As always, all BPR communications are available at the website at www.bonnerprivateresearch.com
BPR Week in Review: The ‘demon germ’ and stock market euphoria
Late in the history of the Soviet Empire, in a clandestine effort to destroy the entire civilian populations of the United States and its allies in Europe, it’s alleged scientists engineered a novel plague virus. Once deployed, the virus would wipe out everyone but leave the infrastructure of civilization intact. The mutant germ was based on the Yersinia Pestis bacterium which causes plague (there are three versions of plague: bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic). And the demon part?
What Went Wrong
This is the story that economic historians will tell…to explain ‘what went wrong.’ Democrats vs. Republicans...good guys vs. bad guys...red vs. blue...Iran vs. the US...Orioles vs. Yankees — if only it were so simple, with the sheep on one side and the wolves on the other! But it’s the deeper patterns that count. The Primary Trend...the rise and fall of empires...the Deep State...the debasement of the dollar...and the approaching senility of American democracy.
Your October Report
October 2026
Woah, they’re so broke
If the Fed keeps raising interest rates, it's going to drive an upward spike in interest rates and a ton of market anxiety.
BPR Week in Review
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Surprise Surprise Surprise
Yesterday, Kevin Warsh raised interest rates: Fed Raises Rates for First Time Since 2023 The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, moving the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4% — the first hike since July 2023 While Warsh closes the flow of credit, the Houthis, Iranians, and Iraqis are turning the tap off on the flow of diesel fuel.
Granddaddy of All Bears
Chiswick, West London
BPR Week in Review: Pacing the Frontier
Dear Reader, Have the elite techbros that run US-based close-source AI popped their own bubble this week?
Twenty Inches of Topsoil
Our daughter sent the news up from South America. That wasteland that we bought down there has turned into a treasure. Here’s the story from the local paper: “Gualfin” is our place, the desolate mountain farm we bought twenty years ago, when prices were so low, we couldn’t resist. Since then, prices have stayed low. But now we have found El Dorado in our lonesome patch. Gold, copper, lithium...this ‘worthless’ land has everything... And nothing. “Bill, don’t buy a yacht yet,” cautioned our lawyer.
Dollars Never Die
A vicious scramble for scarce resources…fueled by bottomless paper money…in search of profitability at massive scale…that may or may not materialize… Our investment strategy is perfectly positioned for this AI-led Inflationary Boom… which we track with this chart of stocks/oil and the interaction with its moving average. Above the moving average signals we’re still in the Inflationary Boom. Kate and I are buying MORE gold.
The Wine at the End of the Road
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The Operating System of the US Government
Mugshot of Carlo Ponzi, Source: Getty Images “My business was simple. It was the old game of robbing Peter to pay Paul.” —Carlo Ponzi Today we give credit where credit is due: to Carlo Pietro Giovanni Guglielmo Tebaldo Ponzi — master of fraud, titan of the rip-off, and unheralded pioneer of modern state finance. His face should be on the $20 bill, not Andrew Jackson’s. Ponzi was born in Italy in 1882 and landed in Boston in November 1903 with $2.50 in his pocket.
Big Tech’s ‘Killer App’
Chiswick, West London
Collusion, Deception, Defection
Source: Grok Image Generator Dear Reader, The weekend started with a meme and ends as a nightmare. Yesterday it was kind of funny. Today it’s alarming. But how much should you worry about the ‘collusion, deception, and defection’ we’ve just learned about? The funny part was yesterday, August 29th. For all those who celebrate, that was the 29th anniversary of when Skynet became self-aware and initiated a nuclear war that wiped out most of humanity as we know it.
America’s Yard Sale
Bison crossing a road in Yellowstone National Park, Source: Getty Images Dan sent an intriguing thought. What if US bonds were not ‘certificates of guaranteed confiscation’ after all? What if America’s credit was well secured...by trillions of dollars’ worth of real assets?
Your September Report
September 2026
Into the Void
Chiswick, West London
The Coming Global Monetary Reset
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Wall Street's Odor of Decay
A quick weather alert. All week long, our computer — somehow in league with the French authorities — has alerted us to an Extreme Heat Advisory. Today, the temperature will be pushing up to 100 degrees. Tomorrow, too. The Mirror: Extreme heat is gripping the UK and Europe this summer, with nearly half of England and all of Wales officially in a drought.
Duck and Weave
Thank you for all your kind messages about my father. We especially appreciate your ideas and suggestions for treating Parkinson’s disease, which some of you sent us. We’re looking into everything. It was incredibly hard saying goodbye to him last week, as frail, gaunt and shaky as he is, watching him get into a taxi and head to Heathrow Airport by himself, for a transatlantic flight. Thankfully, he got home to NY safely and quickly. For Kate and I, life is coming at us fast.
Running Out of Money
‘It’s been obvious for a while now that our system is not working as intended, because the people in charge of it seem to be looking out mostly, not exclusively, but mostly for their own interests.’ --Tucker Carlson It was pleasant to go to Paris for a few days...seeing our daughter off to South America. It was even nicer to get back home...to the ramshackle ‘chateau’ we have been nursing along for the last 32 years.
The forces of deflation are immense
Japan and the United States conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention and will not hesitate to take further action…
Week in Review
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A prayer for the grandchildren
US Federal Government, Total Debt. Source: US Treasury First, we are working in the dark. Figuratively most days. But today, literally. The windows and shutters are closed. There is a ‘heat emergency’ in our area. The temperature yesterday afternoon hit 102 degrees. This may pose no threat to the lizards of Death Valley, but here almost no one has AC. Instead, old people are told to stay inside, guzzling water, so the authorities won’t have the expense of hauling them to the morgue.
Your August Report
August 2026
Gate of Tears: BPR Week in Review
You want to know something that didn’t make the news last week? The heads of Private Credit at BlackRock and Blackstone both resigned. For separate and personal reasons, of course. And it may not mean anything. But those are a couple of interesting ‘dots’ that may be connected. Why? Cast your mind back to the to the long hot summer of 2007. The Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies fund was in trouble.
Late to the Ponzi Party
‘What they’re doing with immigration is a disaster.’ —Donald Trump on the Old World What’s wrong with Europe? The Conversation: In recent local elections in the United Kingdom and Australia, right-wing populism has appeared to be on the march. The most successful transformation of far-right populism in a large European country has been Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. It won the most votes in the 2022 election and leads a right-wing coalition government.
Monumental Price Breakouts...and a SELL alert
Chiswick, West London
BPR Week in Review
Sunday, July 19th, 2026 Laramie, Wyoming By Dan Denning What’s going to be exhausted first: the barrels, the ballistic missiles, or the bombs? In our regular communications with paying subscribers, we’ve noted some artificial and some physical deadlines that might determine how long this military operation in Iran may last. The artificial deadlines are easy to skip. The War Powers Act authorizes the President to initiate military action and pursue it for 60 days without Congressional approval.
Ratios, Incentives and Expected Returns
West Palm Beach, Florida
Crocks for Stocks
A hungry crocodile. Source: Getty Images Isn’t it wonderful how the real world works? Full of contradictions and contrariness...nuance, irony, and cussedness. And just when you think you have your eye on the pitch...along comes a curve ball. Yesterday, we looked at how Donald Trump brought ‘communism’ out of the crypt so he could make an enemy of it. This was despite the fact the man has leaned further into the socialist wind than any president since Franklin Roosevelt. And here’s the latest.
The premium for almost-pure iron oxide
These high purity, deliverable deposits are extremely rare and valuable, even though no one really talks about iron ore as a good investment.
BPR Week in Review
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Committee to Save the World
Imposing a 20% fed funds rate would be catastrophic. The whole financial system - in the US and much of the rest of the world - would shrivel up. Because we have 40 times as much federal debt.
A New Miner on the Official List
Chiswick, West London
Parting of the Waters: BPR Week in Review
Source: Wyoming Geological Survey Cruising down over Ontario, and then across Minnesota and parts of North Dakota and Wyoming into Denver yesterday, I thought about the first half of the year and the map above. Markets are cruising into the mid-point of the year and likely to be quiet this week in the build up to America’s big 250th birthday bash on Saturday, July 4th. Of course markets are under no obligation to take a vacation, so we’ll see. The map above shows a geographical oddity.
Brexit Turns Ten
“Everything government touches turns to crap.” —Ringo Starr London is sweltering. Fortunately, our hotel is air-conditioned. Good restaurants, too, tend to cool their customers. This week, we’ve looked at what appears to be a deep malaise in the UK. It seeps into every conversation like ‘rising damp’ in an old English wall. Another prime minister has gotten the boot. Sluggish GDP growth. Rising prices. Unemployment. Rampaging mobs.
Your July Issue
July 2026
BPR Week in Review: What AI Won't Do
Bigger than Japan? Bigger than the dot.com boom? The Nifty Fifty? Bigger, even, than the railroad boom of the 1800s? Well no. Not the last one. I’m referring to the chart above from Bank of America. It shows that 39% of the market cap of the S&P 500 is now in ‘AI Stocks.’ That puts this market bubble—what our Investment Director Tom Dyson calls The Greatest Financial Experiment Ever—firmly in the death zone where other bubbles have run out of oxygen/liquidity.
What AI Won't Do, Part Three
Turtles on a log. Source: Getty Images Will AI make us all “very rich,” as Mr. Trump assures us? Will it make anyone rich? Take the softball first. Will it make us all rich? It will not — and the very asking of the question betrays a mind that has never paused to consider how the world is actually put together. “Rich” is a relative thing, not an absolute one. We can no more all be rich than we can all be in the ninetieth percentile; the word itself would be meaningless.
Hard Asset Long Bonds
The Four Quadrants model we’re using, created by Charles Gave, has moved definitely into the INFLATIONARY BOOM quadrant. This is the biggest news this week. In the Inflationary Boom quadrant, stores of value like real estate, precious metals, commodities perform well. Gold beats stocks. Also, high fixed-cost, cyclical producers do well like shipping, like oil and gas infrastructure, and the new iron ore royalty idea we introduced last week. The worst investments in the Inflationary Boom quadrant?
Like stimulating an old mule
What a jolly little war…as long as you are not in the middle of it…or have to pay for it…or buy gasoline…The Washington Post: US launches strikes on Iran after downing of Army helicopter, prompting retaliation Next at bat, Reuters: Iran strikes US bases in Gulf after Trump orders attacks near Hormuz The press goes on to explain that the Iranian bombing is retaliation for the US bombing of Iran…which was in retaliation for the Iranians shooting down a US helicopter, which was loitering over...
One of the best assets in the Labrador Trough
The stock market has just logged one of the all-time great rallies in history, gaining 19% over nine consecutive winning weeks. An exciting new technology has sparked a gargantuan capex boom. Suddenly, after years of buying back stock, Google says it wants to issue $80bn in new stock to fund even more AI investment. Meta says it’s thinking of doing the same thing. So is Amazon. But what’s this?
Accomplished Scalawags
‘The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.’ --Antonio Gramsci When the money goes, everything goes. And when the money is fraudulent at its root, it’s not long before every branch and leaf is contaminated. But one of the wonders of a corrupt age is that the public doesn’t seem to mind.
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