Tom Kool
Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Tom Kool
Oil falls to lowest level since August
Brent crude briefly falls below $90 as hopes of diplomatic breakthroughs in Iran and Ukraine accelerate the oil market selloff.
Oil Falls to Lowest Level Since August
Brent crude briefly falls below $90 as hopes of diplomatic breakthroughs in Iran and Ukraine accelerate the oil market selloff. Crude Says Peace, Tanker Rates Say Not So Fast - Crude oil prices have plunged by almost $30 per barrel since the US midterm elections, however, stubbornly high freight rates in the Gulf suggest not every segment of the oil markets deems the US-Iran war to be 'effectively over'.
The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace
Breaking Oil prices plunged 15% this week as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal fueled bearish sentiment, despite continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Friday, November 06, 2026 Oil prices are set to record one of the steepest weekly losses in recent memory, with ICE Brent sliding a hefty 15% week-on-week to $99 per barrel on expectations of US-Iran diplomatic progress and a weakening window of opportunity for the Trump administration to continue hostilities in the Middle East.
Pentagon Eyes Unprecedented 75-Year Deal to End China's Rare Earth Stranglehold
The U.S. Army wants first dibs on American-produced heavy rare earths, and REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) has just signed a landmark nonbinding term sheet that could put it at the top of the military's supply chain list. And the terms are extraordinary. The term sheet proposes a potential 75-year operating lease on approximately 200 acres at Tooele Army Depot in Utah, where REalloys would build and operate a facility processing dysprosium and terbium, two metals China has spent decades monopolizing.
Trump Bombs Iran, Talks Peace, and Sends Oil Prices Tumbling
Brent slipped below $105 this morning following a flurry of headlines suggesting growing momentum in U.S.-Iran peace talks, only for Tehran to subsequently dismiss the reports. US Midterms Give Oil Markets a Brief Diplomatic Reprieve - The steep backwardation seen across global crude oil benchmarks has started to flatten as markets sought to digest news of Qatar-mediated talks between the US and Iran, with Dubai M1-M3 structure nearing zero this week.
Trump Bombs Iran, Talks Peace, and Sends Oil Prices Tumbling - OIR 031126
ICE Brent fell below US$105 per barrel this week in one of its sharpest daily drops in recent history, as ongoing US-Iran negotiations gave the market a strong bearish impetus despite Tehran’s complaints. Yet pre-election chaos ahead of the 3 November US midterms, including Trump’s ‘defensive strikes’ on Iran’s Qeshm island, will keep volatility elevated in the days ahead.
Oil Traders Brace for a Wild Week as Brent Approaches $120
Fears of renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities are intensifying, with rising Hormuz attacks, reported explosions at Iran's Jask port and military repositioning overshadowing diplomatic efforts. Friday, October 30, 2026 With only several days left until the US midterm elections, oil prices are set for a hefty 13-14% month-on-month increase as ICE Brent trends around $118 per barrel.
America produces less than 1% of the rare earth magnets it needs
China's ongoing weaponization of rare earths, which has now been bolstered to include measures to keep individuals with sensitive technological knowledge from leaving the country, gives it leverage over a $1.5 trillion U.S. civilian economy that depends on permanent magnets. The Pentagon has spent years preparing for life without Chinese rare earths, but the civilian economy hasn't.
America Produces Less Than 1% of the Rare Earth Magnets It Needs
China’s ongoing weaponization of rare earths, which has now been bolstered to include measures to keep individuals with sensitive technological knowledge from leaving the country, gives it leverage over a $1.5 trillion U.S. civilian economy that depends on permanent magnets. The Pentagon has spent years preparing for life without Chinese rare earths, but the civilian economy hasn't.
America Produces Less Than 1% of the Rare Earth Magnets It Needs
China's ongoing weaponization of rare earths, which has now been bolstered to include measures to keep individuals with sensitive technological knowledge from leaving the country, gives it leverage over a $1.5 trillion U.S. civilian economy that depends on permanent magnets. The Pentagon has spent years preparing for life without Chinese rare earths, but the civilian economy hasn't.
Oil Markets Brace for a New Iran Escalation After U.S. Midterms
Brent holds near $115 as Iran war tensions and escalating Saudi-Houthi hostilities keep oil markets on edge ahead of U.S. midterms. Hormuz Becomes Even More Dangerous — and More Expensive - October has seen the most acute escalation in maritime attacks since the US-Iran war started eight months ago, with already more than 30 incidents recorded in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways, up from 14 in September.
Oil Markets Brace for a New Iran Escalation After U.S. Midterms - OIR 271026
Oil markets are closely watching the political calendar. Tom Kool of OilPrice.com reports that traders expect hostilities between the United States and Iran to resume after the 3 November midterm elections. For now, mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan have helped keep ICE Brent at around US$115 per barrel. Kool also notes that the Saudi-Houthi conflict seems to be gaining momentum of its own, unfolding alongside tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The cost of moving Gulf crude continues to rise.
US$120 Oil Is Almost Here, and Trump Has Few Good Options - OIR 231026
Brent crude traded around US$117 per barrel in the week to 23 October 2026, a weekly gain of about 4%, which Tom Kool of OilPrice.com associates with the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Kool also records that crude market fundamentals changed little over the week, and that a slight fall in freight rates and a widespread flattening of backwardated curves lowered differentials across most grades, offsetting part of the pressure from higher benchmarks.
$120 Oil Is Almost Here, and Trump Has Few Good Options
Brent crude nears $120 as escalating Saudi-Houthi tensions fuel another weekly oil price rally, putting fresh pressure on Trump. Friday, October 23, 2026 The slow creep of oil prices towards the $120 per barrel mark is a nightmarish scenario for US President Trump, even though there has been little fundamental change in the crude oil markets.
How bad would it get if China blocks rare earths to America?
Taiwan is the next pressure point that will test China's weaponization of rare earth metals. When Japan indicated it would not remain neutral in a Taiwan conflict, Beijing responded by sharply restricting exports of several heavy rare earth materials, including dysprosium and terbium. Japan was the test case.
The next major oil supply shock could come from Saudi Arabia
Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure threaten production as Brent crude hits $108 and the Brent-WTI spread widens to $5. The LNG Market Gets a New War Premium - Asian liquefied natural gas prices soared to their highest since December 2022, as repeated attacks on tankers across the Middle East and Europe's worsening winter outlook pushed JKM above $30 per MMBtu.
The Next Major Oil Supply Shock Could Come From Saudi Arabia
Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure threaten production as Brent crude hits $108 and the Brent-WTI spread widens to $5. The LNG Market Gets a New War Premium - Asian liquefied natural gas prices soared to their highest since December 2022, as repeated attacks on tankers across the Middle East and Europe's worsening winter outlook pushed JKM above $30 per MMBtu.
The Next Major Oil Supply Shock Could Come From Saudi Arabia - OIR 201026
The week’s supply narrative centred on the Saudi-Houthi conflict, with Yemen’s militias extending strikes beyond infrastructure to the Shaybah oilfield, raising the prospect that Saudi Arabia could be forced to shut in some production. The November WTI contract expiry narrowed global crude spreads, with ICE Brent trading about US$5 per barrel above the US benchmark at US$108 per barrel.
Oil Prices Are Stuck at $105 as Geopolitical Risks Mount - OIR 161026
Brent crude traded within a narrow range around US$105 per barrel during the week ended 16 October 2026. In his latest OilPrice.com report, Tom Kool examines developments across the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States. He notes that market attention has returned to geopolitical conflict as hurricane disruption in the US Gulf of Mexico eases.
Saudi Arabia Becomes the Oil Market’s Biggest Wild Card - OIR 161026
Brent crude traded within a narrow range around US$105 per barrel during the week ended 16 October 2026. In his latest OilPrice.com report, Tom Kool examines developments across the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States. He notes that market attention has returned to geopolitical conflict as hurricane disruption in the US Gulf of Mexico eases.
Oil Prices Are Stuck at $105 as Geopolitical Risks Mount
Brent holds near $105 as Iranian tanker attacks and multiple geopolitical conflicts keep oil markets on edge. October 16, 2026 Oil prices have been relatively rangebound this week as the current modus operandi of frequent Hormuz transits and frequent Iranian drone attacks found an equilibrium point around $105 per barrel for ICE Brent.
Guyana Oil Exports Set to Surpass 1 Million Barrels per Day for First Time
Oct. 13 (oilprice.com) Guyana, one of the world’s newest oil exporters, is poised to surpass one million barrels per day in crude oil exports for the first time this December, marking another extraordinary milestone for the small South American country. According to Bloomberg, December’s preliminary loading schedule includes 33 million barrels of crude exports, equivalent to approximately 1.06 million bpd.
Trump Announces $80 Billion Taiwan LNG Deal
President Donald Trump has announced a massive new energy agreement with Taiwan, claiming the island will purchase between $70 billion and $80 billion worth of liquefied natural gas from Alaska over the next two decades, as Asian importers scramble to secure supplies beyond the increasingly dangerous Strait of Hormuz.
Guyana Oil Exports Set to Surpass 1 Million Barrels per Day for First Time
Guyana, one of the world's newest oil exporters, is poised to surpass one million barrels per day in crude oil exports for the first time this December, marking another extraordinary milestone for the small South American country. According to Bloomberg, December's preliminary loading schedule includes 33 million barrels of crude exports, equivalent to approximately 1.06 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia Becomes the Oil Market’s Biggest Wild Card Original
Trump Opens the Door to Russian Diesel. US President Trump lifted sanctions on Russian exports of diesel, with Moscow pledging to deliver 300,000 tonnes (75,000 b/d) in October, rising to 500,000 tonnes in November (125,000 b/d) and peaking at 1 million tonnes (250,000 b/d) by year-end 2026. OPEC Pushes the Oil Demand Recovery Into 2027.
Saudi Arabia Becomes the Oil Market’s Biggest Wild Card - OIR 131026
Global oil markets remain exposed to significant supply disruptions as tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis intensify. In his October 13, 2026, oil market report, Tom Kool of Oilprice.com examines the implications of attacks affecting Riyadh and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with ICE Brent trading around US$105 per barrel. The developments coincide with uncertainty over Russian diesel supplies, strategic stock releases, and weakening expectations for global oil demand.
$4,000 Gold Could Be Wall Street's Next Big Buying Opportunity Original
Gold is struggling to regain its footing after retreating from September highs above $4,400 an ounce, as a stronger U.S. dollar, surging Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening weigh on the precious metal.
Trump Puts Iran Strikes on Hold as Hurricane Threatens Oil Supply
Oil retreats from $110 as Trump rules out Iran strikes before the midterms, but tanker attacks and a Gulf hurricane threaten fresh volatility. Friday, October 09, 2026 Donald Trump seems to be firefighting the Middle Eastern blaze, vowing not to attack Iran before the mid-term elections just as oil prices were nearing the $110 per barrel mark amidst a deteriorating security situation in Saudi Arabia and Iran hitting at least one transiting tanker in the Hormuz every day for the past three weeks.
The Hidden Cost of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Recovery Original
Brent holds near $100 as recovering Gulf oil flows collide with record freight costs and mounting tanker risks. Asia's Product Market Loses Its Chinese Safety Valve - China has been at the forefront of this month's refined product rally after the country's Ministry of Commerce stopped issuing licenses for refined product exports, prompting several state-owned firms to cancel October-loading cargoes.
The Hidden Cost of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Recovery - OIR 061026
ICE Brent lingered around US$100 per barrel early this week, with last week's 100-million-barrel G7 stock release producing only a minor downward correction, while a surge in Saudi crude exports lifted Gulf flows to about 80% of pre-war levels.
The Iran war is showing what ADNOC's AI can really do
Oil companies have spent years using AI to drill faster, predict equipment failures and squeeze more production from existing fields. The UAE's state-run oil giant, ADNOC, is now finding out what the same technology can do when the problem isn't efficiency, but a war that initially cut UAE oil exports by roughly two-thirds, from about 5.1 million barrels per day before the conflict to just 1.9 million bpd in March.
Dated Brent above $120 signals a serious oil squeeze
Physical oil markets tighten sharply as Dated Brent surges above $120 despite ICE Brent slipping toward $101. Friday, October 02, 2026 The European diesel stock release, droned tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and China reinstating its refined product export ban have all played their part in this week's extremely volatile trading, with ICE Brent edging lower to $101 per barrel.
Dated Brent Above $120 Signals a Serious Oil Squeeze - OIR 021026
Oil markets entered October with a widening divergence between futures pricing and the physical crude market. ICE Brent traded near US$101 per barrel while Dated Brent moved above US$120 per barrel, pointing to substantially firmer physical supply conditions. The week was marked by the prospect of a European diesel stock release, attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and China’s reinstatement of restrictions on refined product exports.
Iran Talks Take the Heat Out of the Oil Rally
Oil prices ease as renewed Iran talks and recovering Saudi exports temper supply fears. Europe's LNG Buying Spree Comes With the Clock Ticking - Europe is finally ramping up imports of liquefied natural gas ahead of the winter heating season, following a disappointing summer when deliveries were 30% below 2025 levels.
Iran Talks Take the Heat Out of the Oil Rally
Europe's LNG Buying Spree Comes With the Clock Ticking - Europe is finally ramping up imports of liquefied natural gas ahead of the winter heating season, following a disappointing summer when deliveries were 30% below 2025 levels. - The 30-day moving average of Europe's LNG imports stood at 267,000 metric tonnes per day, catching up with last year's trendline, thanks to a recovery in US LNG flows, accounting for 69% of the total.
Iran Talks Take the Heat Out of the Oil Rally
Tuesday, September 29, 2026 The renewed prospect of US-Iran negotiations has cooled last week’s rally, bringing ICE Brent lower towards $104 per barrel, however, Donald Trump’s comments about ‘offering Iran nothing’ might seem to suggest that the Pakistan-mediated talks would once again lead nowhere.
Iran Talks Take the Heat Out of the Oil Rally - OIR 290926
Brent crude eased toward US$104 per barrel at the start of the week as renewed prospects for US-Iran negotiations moderated the previous week’s rally. The market, however, remains exposed to significant supply-side uncertainty. Saudi Arabia has restored flows through its East-West pipeline to about 3.5 million barrels per day following a ten-day disruption, although the system is expected to remain below full capacity for several weeks.
Why WTI is suddenly trading $12 below Brent
Oil prices edge higher as Hormuz diplomacy, soaring freight costs and diesel market fears drive a widening Brent-WTI spread. Oil prices are set for a slight 2% weekly gain, despite rumours that this week's opening of the 2026 UN General Assembly sparked yet another diplomatic push to end Middle Eastern hostilities.
Saudi pipeline restart fails to end oil market tightness
Saudi pipeline flows resume, but soaring freight and diesel prices signal persistent oil market tightness. Oil Freight Costs Explode as Gulf Risk Traps the VLCC Fleet - The ultimate showdown of the US-Iran conflict seems to be unfolding in the freight market as costs of VLCC tankers continue to push higher into uncharted territory, with stranded Gulf vessels triggering a worldwide shortage of long-haul ships.
Saudi Pipeline Restart Fails to End Oil Market Tightness
Saudi pipeline flows resume, but soaring freight and diesel prices signal persistent oil market tightness. Oil Freight Costs Explode as Gulf Risk Traps the VLCC Fleet - The ultimate showdown of the US-Iran conflict seems to be unfolding in the freight market as costs of VLCC tankers continue to push higher into uncharted territory, with stranded Gulf vessels triggering a worldwide shortage of long-haul ships.
Saudi Pipeline Restart Fails to End Oil Market Tightness
- The ultimate showdown of the US-Iran conflict seems to be unfolding in the freight market as costs of VLCC tankers continue to push higher into uncharted territory, with stranded Gulf vessels triggering a worldwide shortage of long-haul ships. - For shippers eager to risk a voyage into the Persian Gulf, reward was never sweeter – daily earnings on a Gulf-to-China route soared to $1.2 million this week, with Saudi Arabia's rising supplies straining tanker availability even further.
Saudi Pipeline Restart Fails to End Oil Market Tightness
Saudi pipeline flows resume, but soaring freight and diesel prices signal persistent oil market tightness. Oil Freight Costs Explode as Gulf Risk Traps the VLCC Fleet The ultimate showdown of the US-Iran conflict seems to be unfolding in the freight market as costs of VLCC tankers continue to push higher into uncharted territory, with stranded Gulf vessels triggering a worldwide shortage of long-haul ships.
Saudi Export Pivot Sends Brent Below US$105 - OIR 180926
Brent settled below US$105 per barrel this week, marginally below the previous week’s close, as Saudi Aramco redirected loadings to the Persian Gulf and indicated that partial flows through its damaged 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline could be restored within days.
Saudi Export Pivot Sends Brent Below $105 Original
Saudi Aramco shifts crude exports to the Persian Gulf, easing supply fears and pushing Brent below $105. Friday, September 18, 2026 Last week's market panic about the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline remaining offline for weeks gave way to a slightly more nuanced outlook this week, with Saudi Aramco re-orienting all its loadings to the Persian Gulf.
Saudi Oil Crisis Is About to Hit Europe
Breaking Saudi Arabia's oil supply crisis is rapidly becoming Europe's problem. The September 10 attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline struck the system at multiple locations and damaged at least one pumping station, forcing Riyadh to shut down the Kingdom's critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The 1,200-kilometer Petroline can carry around 7 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia's eastern producing regions to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Saudi Oil Crisis Deepens as Aramco Suspends Yanbu Loadings
First, there were Thursday rumours about strikes impacting Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and flumes visible from satellite imagery. Then, just after the London closure of markets, Saudi Arabia announced Friday that it had halted pipeline transportation via its key Hormuz bypass, stoking fears of long-term damage to its midstream infrastructure.
Saudi Oil Crisis Deepens as Aramco Suspends Yanbu Loadings Original
Saudi Arabia suspends Yanbu oil loadings after halting its East-West pipeline, sending Brent back to $108. Asia's Oil Crunch Sends Regional Benchmarks to Record Highs - Asia's oil industry is facing a double whammy of supply shortages and better-than-expected demand, with crude differentials across the region gradually climbing towards record highs.
SaudI Oil Crisis Deepens as Aramco Suspends Yanbu Loadings - OIR 150926
Saudi Arabia's export disruption widened on 15 September 2026, when Saudi Aramco confirmed it had suspended loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. OilPrice.com reports that ICE Brent returned to $108 per barrel the same day. The suspension follows Friday's announcement that transportation via the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline, the Kingdom's key Hormuz bypass, had been halted after attacks.
Saudi Arabia’s Critical Oil Bypass Comes Under Threat - OIR 110926
Reports of a suspected Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have increased attention on the security of a critical export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline has a capacity of 7mbpd, while potential disruption could affect between 3mbpd and 4mbpd of Saudi crude exports. Tom Kool reports that ICE Brent traded at approximately US$105 per barrel, with available Middle Eastern grades, including Murban and Oman, near US$120 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia’s Critical Oil Bypass Comes Under Threat Original
Houthi strikes threaten Saudi oil exports as Brent hits $105 and Middle Eastern crude soars to $120. Friday, September 11, 2026 Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure have alerted the oil markets to the possibility of seeing even less Middle Eastern supply than before, with potential damage to the East-West pipeline jeopardizing 3-4 million b/d of Saudi crude exports.
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Tom
Contact Tom, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack