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Articles by Tyger Fitzpatrick
Chart of the Week: ASX mining valuations return to more reasonable levels
This week’s insights come directly from our equity research team on the Industry Pulse Mining: 2026 Q3 report. The lithium price recovery has partially reversed, with spot down around one-third since last quarter on mine restarts and slower growth in electric vehicles. Gold is around 10% lower on rising real interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost to hold it.
Market Minute: Al stocks under pressure, Aussie rate hikes and how should investors react?
Tyger Fitzpatrick: Welcome back to another edition of Market Minute. Today I’m joined by Bryce. Bryce, thanks for joining us. I guess my first question for you, it’s been a wild week for markets, particularly in the US. So what’s actually going on there. Bryce Anderson: It has been a wild week. I think last week the market had its worst week since Trump announced his big his big tariffs and bought out his black board. That’s really down to a couple of things.
Investor Playbook: What Transurban, APA and Deterra have in common?
Just as a basketball coach relies on their playbook to navigate high-pressure moments, this column explores the frameworks, principles and behaviours that help investors make better decisions in their investment journey. APA (ASX.APA), Transurban (ASX.TCL) and Deterra (DRR.ASX) operate in very different industries. Yet they share specific traits that have helped them protect earnings during periods of higher inflation.
Chart of the Week: Aussie dividend yields below 10-year average
This week’s insights come directly from our equity research team on “Australian Dividend Outlook and Top Picks 2026 Q3.” The ASX 200’s dividend yield was 3.4% at the close of September 2026, below its 10-year average of 4.1%. That’s still low despite recent bond yield rises. Markets appear to be looking through risks, including geopolitical conflict and the potential for a severe shock. Investors seem to be betting on decent corporate earnings growth.
Investor Playbook: What these ASX heavyweights reveal about your portfolio
Investors often describe their portfolios by the investments they own. Banks. Property. Healthcare. ETFs. But portfolios are not driven by those labels. Beneath every investment sits a set of return drivers that impact its success or failure. In my previous article, I proposed that identifying return drivers was key in unlocking portfolio diversification in a highly correlated market. Understanding the returns drivers can help investors make better decisions about portfolio construction.
Chart of the Week: Investors allocate More to ETFs
This week’s insights come directly from Shani Jayamanne in “The State of the Australian Investor 2026″ report. The study, based on share sight data showed direct shares represented 51.5% of portfolio value in FY2026, down slightly from 51.9%. ETFs rose from 22.6% to 26.2%, a 3.6% percentage point increase.
Market Minute: Al stocks sell off, investors want results not spending, French bond markets
Tyger Fitzpatrick: Welcome back to another edition of Market Minute. Today I’m joined by Ameya. So thanks for joining me in. The key topic on investors minds at the moment is obviously US earnings and returns on AI investment. So what are you seeing in equity markets over the past week? Ameya Hattangadi: Last week was an interesting week. It was quite quite choppy. We’ve had a couple of weeks prior where things were a little bit tough and early in the week.
Investor Playbook: The death of easy diversification
Just as a basketball coach relies on their playbook to navigate high-pressure moments, this column explores the frameworks, principles and behaviours that help investors make better decisions in their investment journey. Most investors understand the concept of diversification. It’s one of the first investing lessons we’re taught. As the old adage goes, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Many investors believe they’ve followed that advice.
Chart of the Week: ASX tech valuations at three year lows
This week’s insights come directly from our equity research team in the Australian Market Outlook Q4 2026. The technology sector has been highly volatile in recent months. It rallied at the start of the reporting season, but gains were soon lost. While profits and guidance for next year did not reflect the “SaaSpocalypse” narrative gripping the sector since February, the strength was not enough to assuage fears and pessimism.
Investor Playbook: When to sell your investment
Just as a basketball coach relies on their playbook to navigate high-pressure moments, this column explores the frameworks, principles and behaviours that help investors make better decisions in their investment journey. In my last edition, I covered three simple questions to ask before buying a new investment. This week I want to flip the script. One of the most difficult and consequential decisions investors face isn’t always what to buy. It is when to sell.
3 ASX top picks with wide moats
The S&P/ASX 200 closed out the September quarter virtually unchanged. The index climbed as much as 6% to a record high in early August as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz pulled oil prices and bond yields lower. September took back almost all of it. Set aside the largest stocks on the ASX and the market is starting to look cheap. Across our ANZ equity coverage, the average company now trades about 5% below fair value. By market capitalisation they sit at a 10% premium.
Chart of the Week: The warning signs for Aussie banks
This week’s insights come directly from our equity research team in the Australian Market Outlook Q4 2026. Housing credit growth slowed to 0.5% month-on-month in July from a peak of 0.7% in December as the effects of higher interest rates and changes to investor tax settings dampened demand. Major banks saw an average decline in loan applications of around 15% since May, suggesting a further credit growth slowdown ahead.
Investor Playbook: 3 simple questions to ask before buying your next investment
Just as a basketball coach relies on their playbook to navigate high-pressure moments, this column explores the frameworks, principles and behaviours that help investors make better decisions in their investment journey. The modern-day investor is bombarded with opinions and recommendations about what to invest in. This can be problematic for investors that lack a solid investment decision making framework. Intuitively, many investors look for ways to narrow down this flurry of information.
Chart of the Week: 3 undervalued US tech shares
This week’s insights come directly from the US Morningstar editorial team. Aussie investors are increasingly gaining exposure to US shares either through direct holdings, via ETFs or through their superannuation. US technology in particular dominates the top end of the US market, reiterating the importance of Aussie investors being across the factors driving performance.
Investor Playbook: Are your investments working against you?
Just as a basketball coach relies on their playbook to navigate high-pressure moments, this column explores the frameworks, principles and behaviours that help investors make better decisions in their investment journey. Many investors can explain why they own each investment in their portfolio. Far fewer can explain how those investments work together to achieve their financial goals. That’s understandable. Portfolios are built over decades.
Chart of the Week: ASX retail offers pockets of value in softening conditions
This week’s insights come directly from Johannes Faul in the Industry Pulse: Australian Retailing Q3 report. The full report is available to Morningstar Investor subscribers and trialists. Faced with tightening budgets, shoppers are prioritising everyday essentials. Johannes anticipates a resurgence in fuel prices and further monetary tightening as early as late September which is expected to throttle consumer spending.
Investor Playbook: What Australia’s wealthiest investors taught me about investing
Just as a basketball coach relies on their playbook to navigate high-pressure moments, this column explores the frameworks, principles and behaviours that help investors make better decisions in their investment journey. I began my career in financial advice. I didn’t have many expectations as a fresh grad and was looking to get my foot in the door. My job gave me access to wealthy investors and I started to pick up on patterns in how they approach their finances.
Chart of the Week: Active or Passive? The results may surprise you
This week’s insights come directly from our manager research team in Morningstar’s Australia Active/Passive Barometer update. The report found that passive strategies outperformed active peers across most segments over the past year, leading to a decline in trailing 10-year success rates across much of the study.
Chart of the Week: BHP’s valuation hits historic levels
This week’s insights come directly from Lochlan Halloway in the Your Money Weekly “Priced for a Copper Supercycle”. BHP (ASX.BHP) trades on four and a half times book multiple. Assume a standard set of assumptions for a perpetuity model: a 9% cost of equity, long-run growth of about 3%, and a business that distributes most of what it earns, and that multiple requires BHP to earn about 30 cents on every dollar of shareholder capital.
What did Morningstar subscribers buy and sell during August?
This review of our subscribers’ top trades from Sharesight covers the month of August. Sharesight is a portfolio tracker that is integrated into Morningstar Investor. Their data shows the top 20 trades by Morningstar subscribers. Sharesight’s data below ranks total trading activity which is split between sells (red) and buys (green). The ETF led shift in investor behaviour continues to strengthen.
Chart of the Week: Will the gold price continue to fall?
This week’s insights come directly from Jon Mills & Alex Anderson in the Mining 2026 Q2 Industry Pulse. Gold retreated further for most of the quarter on lower investment demand but has recently recovered to USD 4,400 per ounce to end modestly down. ETF flows are driving the volatility, as they tend to be procyclical and the marginal buyers.
3 ASX opportunities after earnings season
Following my article analysing 164 ASX earnings results, I thought it was fitting to focus on where investors should look now. The data suggested that the market reactions from the results may have overshadowed what was a fundamentally resilient earnings season. While share price reactions often dominate the headlines, they don’t always correctly reflect changes in a company’s underlying value.
Reporting season was stronger than share prices suggest
With the August reporting season now in the books, it is a good opportunity to take a step back from the daily earnings headlines and assess what actually changed across the market. To do this, I collected data from the earnings notes of 164 ASX listed companies in our coverage, focusing on fair value changes, sector trends and same-day share price reactions. The purpose of this analysis was to uncover the hidden trends in earnings season and the results paint an interesting picture.
Chart of the Week: China demand for copper falls amidst record rally
This week’s insights come directly from Jon Mills & Alex Anderson in the Mining 2026 Q2 Industry Pulse. Despite a recent softening in prices, most major mined commodity prices are elevated compared with the past and the cost curve, a key driver of the general overvaluation we see. Copper reached new highs before modestly retreating to end up about 10% on last quarter.
CSL’s latest result suggests the worst may be over
CSL’s (ASX:CSL) earnings result was not particularly impressive on the surface. Underlying earnings fell 2%, while a USD 7.1 billion impairment charge pushed statutory earnings into the red. Despite these shortcomings, CSL shares rallied 17% on the day and roughly 50% over the past month. The market’s reaction says less about what CSL achieved and more about how far expectations have fallen.
Weekly earnings wrap: FMG, WDS, COL and more
This is the last weekly wrap for the August 2026 earnings season. Despite earnings season now winding down, several notable companies released results over the past week. Fortescue reported softer than expected earnings and dividends while Ampol delivered a sharp profit rebound on the back of elevated refining margins. Woodside’s net profit fell short of expectations due to higher costs and a larger tax bill.
Chart of the Week: Are US mega-cap stocks undervalued?
This week’s insights come directly from our US research team in the North America Market Outlook Q3 2026. The U.S. stock market is trading at a slightly greater discount than at the beginning of the year, yet following significant rotations across style, capitalisations, and sectors, valuations have become more balanced.
BHP’s latest results offer a glimpse of what’s ahead
BHP’s (ASX.BHP) latest earnings update had all the hallmarks of a strong result. Underlying net profit rose 30% and dividends jumped 65%. On the surface, it looks like a textbook example of a company firing on all cylinders. However, a closer look at what drove the result raises important questions about BHP’s valuation and the sustainability of its earnings.
Weekly earnings wrap: BHP, CSL, NAB and more
This is the third edition of our weekly wrap for the August 2026 earnings season. Earnings is now in full swing with some of the largest names on the ASX reporting this week. BHP reported strongly on the back of record copper prices, NAB highlighted weaker credit conditions ahead and CSL shares rallied on lower investor expectations and steady profit guidance. At the other end of the spectrum, JB Hi-Fi shares fell 12% post earnings as tighter household budgets weigh on consumer stocks.
Chart of the Week: Our top dividend stock picks on the ASX
This week’s insights come directly from our equity analyst Shaun Ler in the Australian Dividend Outlook and Top Picks 2026 Q2. Companies on the ASX are likely to continue taking a measured approach to dividends, balancing shareholder distributions against balance sheet stability and the need for future investment. We expect close to 60% of our coverage to increase full-year distributions per share in the fiscal 2026 reporting season, up from 46% in fiscal 2025.
Are ASX REITs the better way to own property?
Australians have long viewed residential property as the cornerstone of wealth creation. Yet while direct property investment becomes arguably less attractive due to softer housing markets and new tax headwinds, listed property trusts (REITs) offer exposure to property assets at discounts to their assessed value. Listed property trusts (REITs) allow investors to purchase a share of rental income from a portfolio of properties bundled together.
Weekly Earnings Wrap: CBA, REA Group, Westpac, Resmed and more
This is the second edition of our weekly wrap for the August 2026 earnings season. It was another busy week, with results highlighting just how differently companies are navigating the current environment. REA Group benefited from a changing property market, ResMed continued to demonstrate resilient earnings growth although guidance missed investor expectations, and investors received a fresh read on the big banks through results from Westpac, CBA and ANZ.
Chart of the Week: Why ASX tech is poised for a comeback
This week’s insights come directly from our equity analyst Roy Van Keulen in the Australian Equity Market Outlook for Q3. The technology sector has outperformed the broader Australian market in recent months, unwinding some of the massive prior underperformance. Fearful and pessimistic narratives about the “SaaSpocalypse” in the first quarter have yet to come to pass. We see some companies reporting a scaling back of their AI efforts.
Market Minute: US earnings are strong. Why are investors still worried?
Tyger Fitzpatrick: So welcome back to another edition of Market Minute. Today I’m joined by Michael. So Michael thanks for joining us. With earnings being on the forefront of investors minds at the moment. I guess let’s go into the US earnings. What are the key themes that you’re sort of seeing so far. Michael Malseed: Yeah. So US earnings seasons. Most of the way through. And we’ve seen pretty good results out of the fundamentals there. About 86% of companies have beat earnings expectations.
What did Morningstar subscribers buy and sell during July?
This review of our subscribers’ top trades from Sharesight covers the month of July. Sharesight is a portfolio tracker that is integrated into Morningstar Investor. Their data shows the top 20 trades by Morningstar subscribers. Sharesight’s data below ranks total trading activity which is split between sells (orange) and buys (yellow). The ETF takeover A clear pattern continues to emerge in our monthly data as ETFs are growing in popularity over direct shares.
Chart of the Week: AI market leader is now surprisingly cheap
This week’s insights come directly from our US equity analyst Brian Colello on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). Contrary to popular belief, Nvidia now fits the profile of a growth-at-a-reasonable-price stock (GARP). The company emerged as the biggest AI beneficiary in 2023; as demand for its chips exploded, so did its stock price. Although Nvidia has continued to deliver strong earnings growth this year, its valuation has become more reasonable relative to our growth projections and fair value estimate.
Weekly earnings wrap: Rio Tinto leads the way
This is our first weekly wrap for the August 2026 earnings season. This week of earnings kicked off with a handful of larger names across basic materials, financials and REITS. Among those include RIO, REA and LNW. Here’s what our analysts had to say following each result and whether our fair value changed. Once earnings season wraps up, I’ll combine the standout winners and losers from each weekly review and analyse the underlying trends.
Chart of the Week: CGT reform strengthens the case for dividend investing
This week’s insights come directly from our equity analyst Shaun Ler in the Australian Dividend Outlook and Top Picks 2026 Q2. We believe the relative appeal of regular income streams has strengthened. The May 2026 Federal Budget introduced a significant capital gains tax, or CGT, reform. The long-standing 50% CGT discount has been replaced with cost-base inflation indexation alongside a 30% minimum tax floor on inflation-adjusted gains.
Finding ASX opportunities in lofty market conditions
Aussie investors continue to fight an uphill battle against inflation, rate hikes and geopolitically instability. Another key challenge has been identifying “cheap”, quality shares in an expensive market. When weighting ASX shares by size, the share market sits at a 10% premium to Morningstar’s Fair Value estimates. In other words, an investor buying the ASX benchmark is paying about $1.10 for every dollar of fair value. The equal-weighted market valuation is starkly different.
Ask the analyst: What to expect in earnings season?
Welcome to ask the analyst, where members of Morningstar Australia’s equity research team answer questions from the Morningstar community. If you have a question about an ASX company or industry in our coverage, please send it to [email protected]. Earnings season is where the rubber meets the road. Investors get fresh insight into how companies are performing and whether management is delivering on their promises.
Chart of the Week: The CBA chart you can’t ignore
This week’s insights come directly from our equity analyst Nathan Zaia in the latest Australian Banks Q2 Industry Pulse. The major banks’ weighted-average price/fair value estimate fell to 1.33 from 1.41 in the previous quarter. Nonmajors ended the quarter at 0.88, steady with the previous quarter, with the higher interest rate environment hurting their competitive position.
The most popular ASX trades in FY26
The 2025-26 financial year was one of shifting expectations. Investors began the year anticipating further interest rate cuts, but persistent inflationary pressures turned that narrative on its head. By year end, the conversation had shifted to whether additional rate hikes are required to bring inflation back to the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. The ASX200 index was up 2.7% for FY26, modestly below the 10-year annualised return of 5.31% according to S&P data.
The ASX’s most shorted stocks before earnings
Last quarter, I covered the most shorted companies on the ASX. At the time, the list was dominated by consumer cyclical and healthcare names. Fast forward to today and the composition has shifted again. Evidence would suggest short sellers are increasingly targeting companies facing commodity price and operational risks. While consumer cyclical companies remain the largest cohort, short interest in resource companies has increased significantly.
3 best ASX growth stocks to buy for the long term
The Aussie market is in a cool down period with the ASX200 index up a meagre 2.7% for FY25-26. Returns over the past year are modestly below the 10-year annualised return of 5.31% according to S&P data. The biggest drags on performance have been sectors with historically strong growth profiles, such as technology and healthcare. The beauty of long term investing is it mitigates some of the worries investors face when trying to time the market through the economic cycle.
Chart of the Week: BHP’s growth story faces a reality check
This week’s insights come directly from PitchBook data, as we analyse BHP’s revenue exposure, particularly to China. Our equity analyst Jon Mills argues BHP (ASX.BHP) faces headwinds from its largest customer and its evolving economy. Most commodities markets are driven by demand from China. For example, it accounted for nearly all growth in global demand for copper and iron ore over the past decade.
What did Morningstar subscribers buy and sell during June?
This monthly review of our subscribers’ top trades from Sharesight marks the end to the financial year. In the past six months, we have seen large swings in the most actively traded companies and ETFs. The core themes driving market sentiment have evolved around AI narratives, global conflict and resource bottlenecks. Sharesight is a portfolio tracker that is integrated into Morningstar Investor. Their data shows the top 20 trades by Morningstar subscribers in June.
The World Cup stock you’ve never heard of
There’s really nothing like the football World Cup. Every four years, countries from around the globe rally behind their first XI in the pursuit of glory. Although our Socceroos fell short in the round 32, it was a phenomenal effort from the boys down under. With the finals fast approaching, I thought it was fitting to highlight an Australian company in our research coverage with a genuine hand in this FIFA World Cup.
Chart of the Week: Can WiseTech shares finally bounce back?
This week’s insights come from equity analyst Roy Van Keulen’s latest analysis of WisteTech (ASX.WTC) given recent shuffling in management. WiseTech’s share price has fallen around 70% over the past year, widening the gap between its current valuation and our fair value estimate. Governance concerns involving founder Richard White have further pressured investor confidence at a time when sentiment across the ASX technology sector remains fragile.
Ask the analyst: Where does GYG stand following its US exit?
Welcome to ask the analyst, where members of Morningstar Australia’s equity research team answer questions from the Morningstar community. If you have a question about an ASX company or industry in our coverage, please send it to [email protected]. Today’s question focuses on reassessing GYG following its recent decision to exit the US market. While the US business was experimental, it did represent a huge growth opportunity that was a source of investor excitement at the IPO.
Chart of the Week: The long term headwinds facing copper shares
The week’s insights come from equity analyst Jon Mills latest analysis on copper in the Mining Industry Landscape June report. Prior to China’s rise around the year 2000, global demand for most commodities was largely stable for decades. However, economic reforms and China’s investment-focused growth saw rapid demand growth for commodities such as iron ore and copper. Prices also rose materially during the 2000s and 2010s.
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