Given India’s dependence on and trust in Russia, US attempts to deter India–Russia arms transactions and compel India to phase out Russian systems are unlikely to work. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Chris Bassler, Liv Dowling, Eugene Gholz, Zachary Keck, Rear Admiral (Retd) William McQuilkin, John Parachini, Benjamin Schwartz, Elizabeth Threlkeld, Robin Walker and Matthew Zweig for their feedback and advice, and Julia Lodoen for her research assistance.