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Articles by USDA Estimates
DTN Livestock Close: Leaving on a Positive Note
Photo: Adam Russell, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service As the market prepares for a three-day weekend, it’s positive to see two out of the three livestock contracts trading higher. GENERAL COMMENTS: If there is a take away that the market can learn from this week, it is that it’s wise to not bolster the market with sheer hopefulness and anticipation until the fine details are printed and clear.
For Biofuel Industry, Plenty Riding On Feds’ Optimistic Tone - DTN
Biofuel producers and farmers continue to have a general distrust of EPA’s handling of small-refinery exemptions to the Renewable Fuel Standard, but a USDA official said on Thursday the agency’s new approach should help alleviate concerns.
DTN Cotton Close: Market Collapses on Chinese Trade and Virus
Photo: Blair Fannin, Texas AgriLife Extension The cotton market melted Tuesday as traders saw no evidence that China bought any U.S. commodities over the holiday weekend. We are guessing the market was not looking for massive buys this past weekend, but certainly something to give meaning to the phase one trade deal. Unfortunately, disappointment lead to a near 3% decline in the ICE Futures Another negative was the “overbought condition” of the market.
Wheat Outlook: Stocks Tighten on Rising Domestic Use; Exports Hold Steady
The latest USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Grain Stocks report indicates second quarter all wheat ending stocks totaled 1,834 million bushels with implied September-November disapperance of 512 million bushels, 35 percent above the same period in 2018/19. Surging use in the second quarter is attributed to stronger exports year-to-year and higher-than-expected feed and residual use.
DTN Grain Close: Wheat Soars, Soybeans Sink
Hand full of mature wheat heads. Photo: K-State Research and Extension - Creative Commons March Chicago wheat closed up 11 cents at a new one-year high of $5.81 1/2, taking advantage of a lower-supply situation for SRW wheat and signs of increased world demand. March soybeans, on the other hand, fell 13 3/4 cents to a one-month low of $9.16 with concerns most of China’s purchases may happen later in 2020.
DTN Grain Midday: Soybeans Sharply Lower
CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from the upper end of the range to start the week as we try to find some equilibrium after the moves at the end of last week. Ethanol margins remain tight, with futures just above the lows with export business needing to pick up, or we will likely see plants being idled again soon. U.S. weather will likely limit short-term movement in most areas with warmer weather expected to be on the way.
DTN Cotton Open: Lower on Phase One Uncertainty
Cotton modules lined up in a gin yard. ©Debra L Ferguson Having a long weekend to mull the Phase One Agreement, the cotton market is taking a bearish tone Tuesday morning. One major reason is the lack of specifics regarding future Chinese purchases. Additionally, the market has attained an overbought technical status after having rallied nearly 1500 vertical points since its August low. To that point, certain speculators have flipped from a net short to a net long position.
DTN Livestock Open: Renewed Support Likely Following Long Weekend
©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography Traders come back to the complex Tuesday morning following strong Monday moves in beef and pork values as traders look to regain previous market weakness although trade early Tuesday is still expected to remain sluggish.
DTN Livestock Close: Leaving on a Positive Note
Photo: Blair Fannin, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service As the market prepares for a three-day weekend, it’s positive to see two out of the three livestock contracts trading higher. GENERAL COMMENTS: If there is a take away that the market can learn from this week, it is that it’s wise to not bolster the market with sheer hopefulness and anticipation until the fine details are printed and clear.
Ag Trade: Senate Passes USMCA - DTN
Flags of Mexico and the United States of America. Photo: David Carillet1 The U.S. Senate on Thursday voted 89-10 for final passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), sending the trade agreement to President Donald Trump to sign into law. Much as the House did in December, the Senate provided strong bipartisan support for the trade pact even in the midst of impeachment proceedings.
Ag Leaders Guardedly Optimistic on 2020 - DTN
©Debra L Ferguson Offering some insights into the economic situation of Midwest agricultural loan customers, Farm Credit Services is guardedly optimistic looking at the agricultural economy for 2020. Jim Knuth, senior vice president of Farm Credit Services of America, highlighted some of the rationale for optimism during a breakout session Tuesday at the Land Expo 2020 in Des Moines. FCSA is the largest agricultural lender in the upper Midwest, focusing on Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming.
Corn: Why Are Harvested Acres Always Predictably Lower Than Planted? - DTN
There are many unanswerable questions and unknowable answers in this business, so I feel a special sort of relief when someone asks me a question that actually has a straightforward answer, like this email I received from a reader last spring: “Each and every year, x amount of corn acres are planted. Without exception, 8% to 9% fewer acres are harvested. Similar occurrence in wheat, to a slightly smaller degree. However, we always manage to harvest 99% of planted soybean acres.
Cleveland On Cotton: Become “Somewhat Aggressive” With New-Corp Marketing
This was a positive week for agriculture. For cotton, closing the week near its daily high is always good, The U.S. and China resolved what was called Phase1of the trade dispute and Congress, after extensive and inexcusable delay, allowed the new NAFTA agreement to become law. These trade packages are very beneficial for agriculture. The resolution with China removes all uncertainty from the trade tiff and relative to the cotton market.
FSA Encourages Producers to Enroll Soon in ARC, PLC Programs
Corn stalk lodging and rot. Photo: Tamra Jackson-Ziems USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) encourages agricultural producers to enroll now in the Agriculture Risk (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. March 15, 2020 is the enrollment deadline for the 2019 crop year. Although more than 200,000 producers have enrolled to date, FSA anticipates 1.5 million producers will enroll for ARC and PLC. By enrolling soon, producers can beat the rush as the deadline nears.
Illinois Corn, Soybeans: 2020 Crop Budgets Revised
Budgets for 2020 have been revised and are now available on farmdoc. Revised budgets use a corn price of $3.90 per bushel and soybean price of $9.10 per bushel, both of which are an increase in price expectations following what appears to be softening of trade difficulties between China and the U.S. Even at those prices, returns are projected at negative levels for 2020. Before 2020 returns are positive, yields must be well above trend or Market Facilitation Program payments must continue in 2020.
Arkansas Cotton: Ginning Season Goes into Extra Innings
Truck backing up to unload cotton module onto gin conveyor belt. ©Debra L Ferguson For the second straight year, Arkansas’ “ginning season” may go into extra innings. Despite the wet weather delays, growers had good reason to be optimistic about their 2019 crop, both Bill Robertson, extension cotton agronomist, and Scott Stiles, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, said. The optimism is palpable, taking the form of a bale backlog at some gins.
Southern Farm Show Returns
The Southern Farm Show will celebrate its 43rd year at the NC State Fairgrounds in Raleigh February 5-7. The largest annual agricultural exposition in the Carolinas and Virginia, the show hosts over 400 companies filling over 300,000 square feet of exhibit space. The 2020 show has again grown is size, with major expansions happening in two of the five exhibit tents. These tents are used to handle overflow exhibitors from the fairgrounds’ four permanent exhibit halls.
DTN Cotton Close: Ends Sharply Higher
Cotton modules in front of cotton gin. ©Debra L Ferguson The cotton market concluded its Friday session with triple-digit gains. Speculators were definite buyers as they continued to add to their long positions. This notion of speculative buying originates with the rise in open interest. That is, a generally accepted principle in trading says when price and open interest rise together, it is reflective of new longs entering the market.
South Carolina: 2 Upcoming Cotton, Peanut Meetings, Jan 28, 30
Southeast farmers can learn tips to maximize profitability of cotton and peanut crops at annual meetings planned by the Clemson University Cooperative Extension Service this month. The annual South Carolina Cotton Growers Meeting will be 9 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Jan. 28 at the Santee Conference Center, 1737 Bass Drive, Santee, S.C. 27142. Registration begins at 8:15 a.m. A dicamba training will be held after the meeting adjourns. The annual South Carolina Peanut Growers Meeting will follow on Jan.
Texas: Upper Gulf Coast Feed Grain, Cotton Conference, Crescent, Jan. 23
Blooming cotton field next to to corn with maturing ears. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography Texas A&M AgriLife Extension in Wharton, Matagorda, Jackson, and Colorado Counties are happy to announce the Upper Gulf Coast Feed Grain and Cotton Conference for Thursday, January 23, 2020. This year’s conference will be held in Crescent Hall at the Wharton County Fairgrounds at 6036 FM 961 Road Wharton, Texas 77488.
Georgia Peanut Farm Show Provides Day of Education for Farmers
More than 1,600 attendees were able to fine-tune their farming operations with information gained at the 44th annual Georgia Peanut Farm Show and Conference on Jan. 16, 2020, at the University of Georgia Tifton Campus Conference Center in Tifton, Georgia. The show is sponsored by the Georgia Peanut Commission. The one-day show offered farmers a chance to view the products and services of 113 exhibitors, as well as a day of education.
Ag Trade: Senate Passes USMCA, Providing Reassurance, Certainty to Farmers
Just one day after the U.S. and China signed a Phase One trade deal, the Senate passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA). Wall Street Journal writer William Mauldin reported on Thursday that, “The U.S. Senate easily passed an overhaul of North America’s trade rules on Thursday, sending a major Trump administration priority to the president’s desk.
USDA: Peanut Price Highlights
Peanut prices received by farmers for all farmer stock peanuts averaged 23.3 cents per pound for the week ending January 11, up 1.9 cents from the previous week. Marketings of all farmer stock peanuts for the week ending January 11 totaled 21.3 million pounds, down 7.51 million pounds from the previous week. Runner-type peanut prices averaged 19.5 cents per pound for the week ending January 11, up 0.6 cent from the previous week.
Weekly Cotton Market Review - USDA
Spot quotations averaged 101 points higher than the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service’s Cotton and Tobacco Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49, strength 27.0-28.9, and uniformity 81.0-81.9) in the seven designated markets averaged 66.49 cents per pound for the week ending Thursday, January 16, 2020.
Arkansas Rice: Better Days Ahead in 2020
Rice harvest spilling into truck. Photo: University of Arkansas While 2019 was doom and gloom for rice producers, 2020 may be the year of the rebound for the state’s largest agricultural export, with total rice acreage expected to increase 25 percent to nearly 1.5 million acres.
DTN Grain Close: Corn Rebounds as Export Hints Surface
Photo: University of Tennessee One day after falling 12 cents, March corn jumped 13 3/4 cents, helped by signs of increased export interest for corn. Soybeans and wheat followed corn’s lead with March KC wheat sporting a 9 1/2 cent gain. Midday: CORN Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with good buying during the day session as we bounce back to the mid-part of the range.
DTN Grain Midday: Markets Trending Higher
©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images CORN Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with good buying during the day session as we bounce back to the mid-part of the range. Ethanol margins remain tight, with futures just above the lows with export business needing to pick up, or we will likely see plants being idled again soon. U.S. weather will likely limit short-term movement in most areas. Basis has remained sideways overall this week.
DTN Livestock Midday: Finding Some Common Ground
Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service photo by Adam Russell Finding some steady ground, livestock contracts trade lower but only in a subtle nature. It appears the emotional shake of Wednesday’s trade agreement is starting to subside, and trade is finding comfort at slightly lower, steady sideways prices. It wouldn’t be unlikely to see the rest of the day pass by without a whole lot of market action between here and closing.
DTN Grain Open: Markets Mostly Recover Ahead of Weekend
©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: March corn is up 3 cents per bushel, March soybeans are down 1 1/4 cents, and March KC wheat is up 1 cent. CME Globex Recap: Equity markets are higher around the globe with U.S. equities eyeing fresh record highs, supported by the relative calm on the global trade front. In focus overnight was Chinese economic data which showed growth in the second largest economy slowing to the lowest rate since 1990.
DTN Livestock Open: Market Stability Sought Before Long Weekend
©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography Following strong pressure through the last couple of days, traders are searching for market stability Friday morning as they prepare for a three-day weekend. The ability to regain limited to moderate market support through the session would go a long way in rekindling buyer interest early next week.
DTN Livestock Close: Trade Agreement Excitement Dissipates
©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography On Thursday the market learned that Santa isn’t real and is digging its heels in the ground. GENERAL COMMENTS: Remember when you learned that Santa wasn’t real? Your parents still got you presents and you still had Christmas, but there was a sense of excitement that was never going to be the same about the Christmas holiday. Thursday was the day the market learned that Santa wasn’t real.
Moving Grain: Export Inspections Rise, Still Below Average
Photo: U.S. Grains Council Grain Inspections Up; Wheat and Soybeans Higher For the week ending January 9, total inspections of grain (corn, wheat, and soybeans) for export from all major U.S. export regions reached 2.1 million metric tons (mmt). Total grain inspections were up 6 percent from the previous week, down 22 percent from last year and 4 percent below the 3-year average.
Rice Market Update: Gulf States Sold Out, Delta Price Boost
The rice market has become much more interesting over the past week with more developments and movements in the last 6 days than there has been in the past 6 months. This week’s export sales report was reported down as compared to last week’s report with a modest 29,200 MT sold. This number should increase over the next few reports as the overseas markets begin to source more rice and the competition for rice in first hands becomes more intense.
USDA Estimates: Big Numbers, Big Errors, and More Adjustments Ahead - DTN
Drone view of harvested corn storage bag containers. ©Debra L Ferguson USDA is dealing with the largest numbers it has ever had to deal with. While the flooding reduced this year’s planted acres in several crops, U.S. total supplies are still near record highs, and global numbers for wheat, corn and soybeans are also way up, historically. There will be measurement errors and corrections to those errors, and the errors can get bigger because the numbers you are working with are larger.
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