V K Sharma

The Nifty on Thursday rallied 600 points intra-day from the day’s low of 22,182 to finally close at 22,713—a rise of 531 points from the low and just a 34-point net gain for the day. But this alone is not the reason why we expect the markets to find their moorings in the next few weeks. In fact, when we step back and look at the broader picture, the scenario still appears quite scary. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be largely blocked, crude remains on the boil, and the war continues to be waged.

Brent crude oil prices, which rose to a 45-month high of $119 a barrel last week, continued to dictate the course of our markets. Prices have been on the boil, rising 64% since the crisis in West Asia began. If oil prices remain elevated, they could dash hopes of rate cuts in the US or elsewhere in the world. The immediate future will also depend on whether crude retreats to the barracks or marches on to the beat of war drums. The Nifty fell 37 points, or 0.16%, for the week to close at 23,144.

The markets hit a four-month low on Budget day. But subsequent developments suggest that the stars are finally aligning for India. The US, which had been in a threatening and punitive mode on trade tariffs since April 2025, finally relented on February 2 and announced a trade deal, the contours of which will be chiselled later.