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This post overlaps with our recent paper Extinction Risk from AI: Invisible to Science?. Summary: If you want to use a mathematical model to evaluate an argument, that model needs to allow for dynamics that are crucial to the argument. For example, if you want to evaluate the argument that "a rocket will miss the Moon because the Moon moves", you, arguably, can't use a model where the Moon is stationary. This seems, and is, kind of obvious.
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[Submitted on 5 Jun 2019 (v1), last revised 1 Dec 2021 (this version, v3)] Authors:Evan Hubinger, Chris van Merwijk, Vladimir Mikulik, Joar Skalse, Scott Garrabrant Download PDF Abstract: We analyze the type of learned optimization that occurs when a learned model (such as a neural network) is itself an optimizer - a situation we refer to as mesa-optimization, a neologism we introduce in this paper.
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