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Articles by Yair Ghitza
The Great Society, Reagan's Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting
ARTICLE We thank the Office of Naval Research, Institute for Education Sciences, and Sloan Foundation for their support of this work. Abstract We build a model of American presidential voting in which the cumulative impression left by political events determines the preferences of voters. The impression varies by voter, depending on their age at the time the events took place.
What Happened in Virginia
For decades, exit polls were the fastest way to get data to pundits and analysts, to help understand the election at a time when everyone is desperately seeking information. Because of this, they are often the default, first step in understanding demographic trends in elections. We also use and respect the exit polls. Providing data on election night is a massively difficult task, and we understand the difficulties inherent in that process.
Stuff You Should Read - May 14, 2021
Welcome to this week’s edition of “Stuff You Should Read,” an overly aggressively titled compilation of interesting articles, reports, and polls to help you cut through the clutter of our current (and terrible) media environment. Share The Message Box “What Happened in 2020” by Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson, Catalist This report from Catalist, a Democratic data company, is…
What Happened in 2020
By Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson Interactive Data Visualizations by Chase Stolworthy, Edited by Aaron Huertas, Site design by Melissa Amarawardana The 2020 election was historic and uniquely challenging. Not only was it conducted in the middle of a global pandemic, but it was one of the most intensely partisan elections in recent history. Despite these immense challenges, America’s democratic process survived.
Revisiting What Happened in the 2018 Election
Note: this is part of a series of analyses detailing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration database, survey data, and election returns data. See for background and the full series. Detailed data is available , and a PDF version of this post can be found . Immediately following the 2018 election, we published an analysis of demographic voting patterns, showing our best estimates of what happened in the election and putting it into context compared to 2016 and 2014.
Updates on Election Analysis Project
A few weeks ago, we released the first round of analysis on the 2018 election. Since then, we’ve been doing a few things: updating those models as election results have continued to be collected, and extending our analysis down to states and congressional districts where precinct data is available. Here is a brief update on where we stand and what to expect next: First, we just updated the national congressional data that we posted a few weeks ago.
What Happened Last Tuesday: Part 2 - Who Did They Vote For?
Last week, I shared the news that we at Catalist have developed a new methodology for projecting the true shape of an electorate, almost immediately following Election Day. We followed it up on Friday with estimates of the composition of the electorate, going back to 2006. Today, we’re releasing round 2 of our results: what were the voting preferences of each group? In other words, who did they vote for?
What Happened Last Tuesday: Part 1 - Who Actually Voted?
Last week, I shared the news that we at Catalist have developed a new methodology for more accurately capturing the true shape of an electorate, almost immediately following Election Day. Today, we’re pleased to share a first look at the story told by this new data. We’ll release more findings — including data on candidate choice and more detail from selected state and congressional district s— in the coming days and weeks.
When To Expect Catalist’s Post-Election Data – Yair Ghitza – Medium
Since publishing this blog post and spreadsheet, there’s been a lot of interest about our post-election data for 2018. We just wanted to post a quick update regarding timing. We are not planning on publishing estimates on election night, but we will start publishing estimates by the end of the week. The bottleneck here is precinct results. As mentioned in the previous post, we aren’t just conducting another poll.
What Happened Next Tuesday
A New Way To Understand Election Results When the polls close on the midterm elections this coming Tuesday night, the country will turn its temporary attention towards understanding what happened. The winning and losing candidates will likely be clear. However, the “how” a candidate won, or the “why” a candidate lost will not be. Analysts and pundits will pore over exit polls, election results from bellwether counties, and more.
Mixed partisan households and electoral participation in the United States
Table 2 shows this imbalance more clearly as it offers conditional percentages. Among Democratic women, 67% of husbands are Democratic, but among Democratic men, 77% of wives are Democratic. Among Republican men, 73% of wives are Republican, but among Republican women, 79% of husbands are Republican. In other words, couples are more likely to share a party affiliation in households where the wife is a Republican or where the husband is a Democrat.
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