Etan Hunt

Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in his first FOMC meeting. That part was priced at 97% probability before he sat down. Nobody was watching the decision. What nobody had fully priced was nine of 18 FOMC participants projecting at least one rate hike before December. Not three. Nine. Half the committee. Bitcoin was at $65,700 when Warsh started speaking. It hit $64,077 before he finished. The S&P 500 fell 1.07%. Gold dropped 0.98% to $4,288. Everything sold off at the same time on the same signal.

The rate hold was priced at 97% before the meeting opened. Nobody was watching the decision. Everyone was watching the dot plot and the press conference. Both delivered. The June dot plot, produced without Warsh’s participation since he withheld his own projection, removed the last remaining rate cut penciled in for 2026. Every previous FOMC meeting this year had at least one cut still in the map. That cut is gone now. In its place, at least three voting members projected a hike before December.

Oil fell 5% on the Iran deal. Brent dropped to $83. WTI slid under $80. Bitcoin bounced. Markets priced relief. BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $79/barrel and hit the lowest level since March 10th. pic.twitter.com/xkCULu0TxO — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 16, 2026 Buried in the agreement is a detail that changes the math. Iran plans to charge service fees on Strait of Hormuz transits once a 60-day grace period ends. President Trump says the reopening is permanently toll-free.